So the Coalition appears to believe that a homegrown nuclear power policy will get it over the line at the 2025 general election? Despite the fact that it will take too long reaching operational status, costs up to 85 billion to build & once all 7 reactors are up and running will need many billions of megalitres of water annually to function

 

On Wednesday, 19 June 2024 the Leader of the Coalition Opposition & Liberal MP for Dickson Peter Dutton (Qld) held a joint press conference with Leader of the National Party & MP for Maranoa David Littleproud (Qld), Liberal MP for Farrer Sussan Ley (NSW), Liberal MP for Hume Angus Taylor (NSW) and Liberal MP for Fairfax Ted O'Brien (Qld).

These representatives of their parties have sat in the Australian Parliament for approximately the last 22, 7, 22,10 and 7 years respectively.

From that Wednesday press conference an est. 10,047 word transcript was produced which alleges to outline a Coalition policy on nuclear power as part of Australia's energy mix, with 7 nuclear power plants to be constructed in the vicinities of Tarong and Callide in Queensland, Blackmans Creek and Mount Piper in NSW, Traralgon in Victoria, Collie in Western Australia and Port Augusta in South Australia.

All 7 of these projected sites according to Dutton & Co are to be compulsorily acquired from the existing owners on behalf of the Commonwealth and it is anticipated that the nuclear build will begin sometime in the next 10 years (before 2035) and the first two nuclear power plants will be complete in the next 11 to 12 years (2035-37) with the remaining five being completed by sometime in the 2040s.

When it comes to the projected cost of the build no estimation is given other than "it will be a big bill, there’s no question about that".

However the CSIRO GenCost 2023-24 report calculates a 7 large-scale power plant build as costing up to $85 billion in today's dollars, with the first nuclear power plant completed at est. cost of up to $17 billion. While a small scale SMR nuclear power plant (as yet commercially unrealised) has a tentative est. build of somewhere between $5.1 and $9.3 billion. A total cost for 7 small scale plants being between est. $ 35.7 to $65.1 billion in today's dollars.

The Australian Energy Council, peak industry body for electricity and downstream natural gas businesses operating in the competitive wholesale and retail energy markets, is not critical of CSIRO's timetables and costings.

The CSIRO GenCost 2023-24 final report also indicates an estimate of total build years to completion for 7 large-scale nuclear power plants as 40.6 years - with a most optimistic completion date in 2064-2065 if construction commenced immediately. While the report also states estimated total build years to completion for 7 small-scale nuclear power plants is 30.6 years - with a most optimistic completion date in 2054-2055 if construction commenced immediately.

In the joint press release transcript it states: "we’ve looked at water" as part of the basis of making the announcement of Coalition intentions to build those seven nuclear power plants if elected to govern in 2025.

However that brief mention did not qualify or quantify nuclear power production water needs, which according to a nuclear power-neutral Smart Water Magazine quote:

one nuclear reactor requires between 1,514L and 2,725L litres of water per MWh. It equates to billions of gallons of water per year, and all this water requires filtering somehow.

This would see Queensland & New South Wales required to each find an additional est. 27,786 megalitres of water per annum and Victoria, South Australia & West Australia each required to find an additional est. 13,893 megalitres per annum.

To put that into some perspective two nuclear power plants operating for one year in NSW would require the equivalent of 557 years of Clarence River average water discharge into the sea.

Further, in the joint press release, this quartet of Coalition politician also appear to be asserting that an Australian nuclear power industry will supply "cheaper" electricity.

The Australian Energy Council states:

Australian retail household electricity prices in the National Electricity Market (NEM) are the lowest they have been for eight years, and on an international comparison are the 10th lowest of the 38 OECD countries. The average cost per unit of electricity has fallen to 27 cents/kWh according to the most recent Australian Competition and Consumer National Electricity Market (NEM) data. When compared against other countries using a purchasing power exchange rate, Australian average prices per kilowatt-hour are equivalent to 17.6 US cents (c/kWh), well below the OECD average cost of 24.2 US c/kWh and less than many European countries.

World Nuclear Association graph, 30.04.24. Click on image to enlarge

According to the World Nuclear Association in 2024 there are nuclear power reactors operating in 32 countries plus Taiwan.

Looking at the graph of 58 countries above, 5 of the 15 countries with the highest household electricity prices were countries with nuclear power in the mix.

The Czech Republic operating 6 nuclear reactors has the second highest household electricity price, Belgium operating 5 nuclear reactors the 7th highest, Spain with 7 nuclear reactors the 10th highest, Slovenia sharing 1 nuclear reactor the 12th highest and the United Kingdom operating 9 nuclear reactors the 14th highest.

The full transcript of the 17 June 2024 joint press release can be read at:

https://www.peterdutton.com.au/leader-of-the-opposition-transcript-joint-press-conference-with-the-hon-david-littleproud-mp-the-hon-sussan-ley-mp-the-hon-angus-taylor-mp-and-mr-ted-obrien-mp-sydney/

Opposition Leader & Liberal MP for Dickson, Peter 'The Dickson Spuddler' Dutton - less a slow strip tease of election campaign policies more a full frontal flash

 

Google News, snapshot 09.06.24

ABC News, 8 June 2024:

The federal Coalition has confirmed it will dump Australia's commitment to reduce emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, arguing it is unachievable.

Australia has committed under the Paris Agreement to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent on 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

Abandoning the target would also mean withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 8 June 2024:

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has signalled he will scrap the nation’s legally binding 2030 climate target and risk Australia’s membership of the Paris Agreement on climate change, following his vow to deploy nuclear energy to reach net zero by 2050.

Dutton declared on Saturday that a Coalition government would not pursue Australia’s legally binding climate target to cut emissions by 43 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030 – a significant escalation of Australia’s long-running climate policy war ahead of the next federal election due by May next year.

Dutton told The Australian on Saturday that the government’s renewable goal was unattainable and “there’s no sense in signing up to targets you don’t have any prospect of achieving”.

The opposition has said if it forms government it would build up to seven emissions-free nuclear power plants to replace the energy supply from Australia’s dirty coal plants, which have begun to shut down across the country. He would also pause the rollout of wind and solar farms.

The CSIRO found Australia could not build a nuclear plant until 2040 and Dutton has said the Coalition would boost the role of gas power to fill gaps in the energy grid until his reactors are built....

The Guardian, 8 June 2024:

Opposition leader reportedly told News Corp he would oppose the legislated 2030 emissions target – a 43% cut compared with 2005 levels – at the next election....

Dutton also reportedly conceded that the Coalition’s commitment to introduce nuclear power in Australia would not lead to plants being built before 2040, a point made by experts, and critics who have accused the opposition of planning to delay action to address the climate crisis.

Yesterday's very public move against science and commonsense by Opposition Leader & Liberal MP for Dickson, Peter 'The Dickson Spuddler' Dutton may or may not be news to the Climate Change Authority in the nation's capital Canberra.

I suspect that the intention of this move is to excite his flying monkeys into 'bombing' yet another independent authority in the hope of modifying its published opinion.

The Australian Government's Climate Change Authority is "an independent statutory body established under the Climate Change Authority Act 2011 to provide expert advice to the Australian Government on climate change policy." It has a Chair, along with seven members, an ex-officio member, a four member secretariat headed by a CEO and, a published Charter. The Authority meets at least every six weeks from February to December, with its latest meeting held on 14 May 2024.

This is a brief look at the Authority's views.....

2035 Emissions Reduction Targets, updated 15 May 2024, excerpts:

The Climate Change Authority is developing advice on the 2035 emissions reduction targets for Australia’s next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), as requested by the Minister for Climate Change and Energy.....

Australia is due to submit its next NDC under the Paris Agreement in 2025. Under the Climate Change Act 2022 the Australian Government must receive the authority’s advice before submitting Australia’s next emissions reduction targets. We expect to submit our 2035 targets advice to the Minister for Climate Change and Energy in the fourth quarter of 2024....

The authority will provide advice on the 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets it considers should be included in Australia’s next NDC. We will also advise on the social, employment and economic benefits of the targets and associated policies it recommends and the physical impacts of climate change on Australia, including for rural and regional Australia.

In accordance with the Climate Change Act 2022, our advice will include an explanation of how the targets have taken into account matters set out in Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, including the global temperature goals of well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The authority’s work is always guided by the principle set out in the Climate Change Authority Act 2011 that any measures to respond to climate change should be, among other considerations, economically efficient, environmentally effective, equitable, in the public interest and consistent with Australia’s foreign policy interests and commitments."

We consider scientific evidence to understand and advise how the global temperature goals and broader principles of the Paris Agreement should guide Australia’s domestic emissions reduction efforts.

In preparing its advice, the authority will consider the challenges and opportunities the net zero transition presents for the Australian economy, and broader contributions Australia can make to the global effort. This includes looking at how Australia can support other countries reduce their emissions and build resilience to climate change impacts, through the goods and services we export, and by building on our history of contributing to capacity building through knowledge-sharing, technology transfer and climate finance in the region.

2024 Issues Paper: Targets, Pathways and Progress, 11 April 2024, excerpt:

The evidence the authority has considered so far suggests a 2035 target in the range of 65-75% below 2005 levels would be ambitious, and could be achievable and sustainable if additional action is taken by governments, business, investors and households to achieve it. However, attempting to go much faster could risk significant levels of economic and social disruption and put progress at risk.