The most immediate climate change scenario for New South Wales coastal zone 2024-2050 has been refined by AdaptNSW using NARCliM 2.0 data

 

The Earth is beginning to periodically exceed an annual global air-sea temperature of 1.5°C - the first 12-month period to exceed 1.5°C as an average was February 2023 to January 2024 when the EU Union Copernicus Climate Change Service stated the annual average as 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology the national temperature dataset covering the last 114 years since meteorological observations began to be collated in this country reveal that by 2024 Australia's average temperature over the continental land mass has already warmed by 1.5°C plus or minus 0.23°C since 1910.

The NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM 2.0) released in August 2024 states:

NSW and the ACT have already warmed by

1.4°C since national records began in 1910.

This local warming figure represents surface air temperature over land in NSW and is not directly comparable to average estimates of global warming which include surface air temperature over both land and ocean. Surface warming occurs faster over land than the ocean. Significant impacts from climate change are already occurring in NSW and are expected to be felt more widely in the future.....

The NARCliM "New South Wales Climate Change Snapshot" (August 2024) can be found at:

https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/NARCliM2-Snapshot-NSW.pdf

and

NARCliM "North Coast Climate Change Snapshot" (August 2024) covering the coastal zone from the Port Macquarie district up to the Tweed district on the NSW-Qld border at:

https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/NARCliM2-Snapshot-NorthCoast.pdf

The bottom line is that based on climate science and recorded data to date, across the the next 26 years to 2050 the NSW North Coast and its communities are predicted to experience:

• Average temperature increase of 1.7°C;

• Hot days per year will increase by 8.6 days;

• Severe fire weather days per year will increase by 0.5 days;

• Average annual rainfall will be reduced by somewhere between -0.6% to -11.5%. The rainfall ensemble range would see fluctuations of between -12.1% to -26.1% & +10.9% to +11.9%.

• Sea level will rise by 23cm [0.23m].

In this NARCliM scenario sea level rise is expected to have a major impact on NSW's coastal communities in the coming decades with seawater inundation expected to continue to rise for centuries and last for millennia.

Modelling predicts that north-east NSW sea levels will rise ahead of the remainder of the state's coastal ocean and North Coast low lying coastal flood plains and coastal settlements will experience this sea water inundation.

BACKGROUND

NSW Government, AdaptNSW, August 2024:

To understand and plan for the likely impacts of climate change, we need trusted data and tools.

For over a decade, the NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project has provided robust climate change projections to support government, business and communities to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

NARCliM2.0 offers 150 years of continuous climate model data, including historical data and future projections, spanning from 1951 to 2100, at a 4km resolution across NSW and south-eastern Australia.