In May 2022 the first-time Albanese Labor Government secured seventy-seven seats in a House of Representatives having 151 members.
With a floor majority of two that subsequently rose to four majority after the April 2023 Aston by-election win.
After boundary adjustments by the Australian Electoral Commission this year redistribution will reduce House numbers from 151 to 150, so seventy-six will remain the magic number for an absolute majority at the 2025 federal general election.
For the last twelve months I have noticed quite a bit of chatter discussing the supposed benefits of voting to reduce the Albanese Government to a minority federal government at the next general election.
For some reason there appears to be a view forming that a minority government would inevitably deliver positive and lasting environmental, social & economic policy change with the aid of The Greens & Independents.
Nothing is set in stone and, given how volatile the global climate and international politics are in 2024 and predicted to be going forward, perhaps it's time for a gentle reminder of what happens to duly elected governments during periods of widespread uncertainty.
One punter's view of Australia by way of example.....
There have been 47 Australian Parliaments since 1901.
From 1901 to 1910 federal elections had resulted in what were essentially minority governments and the prime ministership changed hands six times across those first three Australian Parliaments.
The Cook Free Trade and Liberal Association Government, with a one seat majority, was first federal government in Australia that did not even last one full term. It went for 1 year & 55 days from July 1913 to September 1914 when it lost a double dissolution election. Britain and her dominions declared war on Germany & her allies on 4 August 2014.
The Scullin Labor Government was the second and last federal government that did not last one full term. It went for 2 years & 79 days from October 1929 to January 1932 after failing to win a second term. The Wall Street Crash which triggered the decade long Great Depression occurred on 28 October 1929 at the very beginning of this Labor Government's term.
During the terms in office of five consecutive Coalition prime ministers over 23 straight years from December 1949 to December 1972 there was one major issue which increasingly exercised Australian society between 1962 to 1972—the Viet Nam War and Australia's active participation in progressing that war.
Opposition to that war was a significant factor in the Whitlam Labor Government winning the 1972 federal election by 67 seats (with a positive two-party-preferred swing of 2.50%) to the Coalition's 58 seats (with an adverse two-party-preferred swing of 2.50%). The new government inherited a Senate where both Labor and the Coalition held 26 seats each, the Democratic Labor Party 5 seats & an Independent 1 seat.
In May 1974 the first-term Whitlam Government called a double dissolution federal election on the basis that a hostile Senate had unreasonably obstructed the first term government by returned 6 Bills to the House, in addition to the matter of another 21 bills covering government promises taken to the 1972 general election which been rejected, stood aside or deferred by the Senate.
After which the Labor Party remained in government in the House of Representatives with 66 seats and a positive two-party-preferred swing of 1.00%, to the Coalition's 61 seats and an adverse two-party-preferred swing of 1.00%.
In the Senate both Labor and the Coalition held 29 seats with the balance of power held by one Independent & one Liberal Movement senator who on past history would vote with the Coalition.
After the election, the six Bills that had formed the basis of the double dissolution – the Commonwealth Electoral Bill (No. 2) 1973, the Senate (Representation of Territories) Bill 1973, the Representation Bill 1973, the Health Insurance Commission Bill 1973, the Health Insurance Bill 1973, and the Petroleum and Minerals Authority Bill 1973 – were passed at a historic joint sitting of both houses of parliament.
In what can only be described as a silent coup encouraged by the Liberal & Nationals political parties, big business and Buckingham Palace, in October 1975 the Coalition Opposition deferred voting on supply bills in the Senate in an attempt to force Whitlam to call yet another election for both the Senate and the House of Representatives. In response, Mr Whitlam decided to ask the Governor-General to call a half-Senate election to resolve the situation. Instead the Whitlam Government was pre-emptively dismissed by the Governor-General on 11 November 1975 after two years & 341 days.
Malcolm Fraser was invited to form government and the Coalition won the subsequent 1975 federal election 91 House of Representative seats to Labor's 36 seats. This appears to be the highest majority ever held by an Australian federal government.
The Australian Labor Party did not form federal government again for almost another eight years when it again held government for thirteen years before the Coalition regained government in 1996 and with John Howard as prime minister held it for 11 years & 269 days until December 2007.
According to political pundits almost every first-term government since the World War Two has suffered an adverse two-party-preferred swing at the next election.
In the case of the federal Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Labor Government which began life on 24 November 2007 by winning 83 of the 150 seats with a two-party-preferred positive swing of 5.4 % it all looked like smooth sailing. The Liberal Party having only won 55 seats, the National Party 10, and Independents 2.
However by June 2010 the accepted story is that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd had lost the confidence of the national electorate after the federal government appeared to lose its way on a number of issues (including Senate rejection of its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in November 2009) and walked away from a strong policy push for climate change mitigation measures following the collapse of UN COP climate summit in Copenhagen in December 2009. The Labor parliamentary party replaced him with the Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard in June 2010.
Following the 21 August 2010 federal election, the Australian Labor Party (with an adverse two-party-preferred swing of 2.58%) won 72 seats, the Coalition 72, Independent Nationals 1, Greens 1 & Independents 4.
With the support of the Greens member (Bandt) and three of the Independents (Wilkie, Windsor and Oakeshott), Prime Minister Julia Gillard was able to form a minority government which could muster 76 votes to 74 in the House of Representatives.
Under relentless disruptive attack from the Abbott-led Coalition Opposition that number fluctuated over the course of the next 3 years & 16 days (going as low as 75 to 73), when a last minute change of party leadership meant that Kevin Rudd had the dubious honour of leading that Labor federal government to defeat in September 2013 winning only 55 of the 150 House of Representative seats (its lowest primary vote in 100 years) with an adverse two party preferred swing of 3.61% and, the Coalition winning government with 90 seats.
From 2010 to 2013 the Gillard Labor Government had passed a range of bills including the:
> two National Broadband Network acts in 2011 (significantly & adversely altered by subsequent Coalition governments);
> Clean Energy Act 2011 (a carbon emissions trading scheme repealed by Abbott Coalition Government);
> Tobacco Plain Packaging Act 2011;
> Mineral Resources Rent Tax 2012 (repealed by Abbott Coalition Government);
> National Disability Insurance Scheme Act 2013 (rolled out by successive Coalition governments); and
> The National School Reform Agreement (passed by Senate on Gillard's last day as prime minister. Under successive Coalition Governments & current Labor Government has never lived up to expectations).
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