Seven weeks out from the beginning of the Australian Summer meteorologists were predicting "unusually high temperatures from December through to February

 

This is an ABC News article extract on 11 October 2024:

Australia is facing one of the hottest summers on record according to the Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) weather modelling, which tips well-above-average temperatures across the country.

The forecast for a scorching summer is largely due to ongoing high ocean temperatures surrounding Australia, a persistent feature that has plagued most of the globe since early last year.

The warm seas will not only raise air temperatures but also boost atmospheric moisture levels, swinging the odds to favour frequent storm outbreaks and above-average rain.

Our simmering oceans could also lead to the most active cyclone season in years, with the BOM expecting around 11 named storms in the Australian region, including an increased risk of severe (category three or above) systems.

Of the past six years, the three that were not La Niña periods took the top three spots as Australia's hottest summers on record, all with mean temperatures more than 1.6 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

This trend suggests this summer will also produce well-above-average temperatures — a prediction supported by seasonal modelling.

The BOM's initial summer forecast, released this week, shows a greater than 80 per cent chance of minimum temperatures in the top 20 per cent of years — which the BOM label "unusually high temperatures"....

So how do conditions look now in Spring 2024?

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):

Weekly sea surface temperatures

PACIFC OCEAN SEA SURFACE HEAT MAP

Weekly temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific

For the week ending 13 October 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were:

• 0.8–2 °C warmer than the 1991–2020 average in the far western and parts of the far eastern equatorial Pacific

• 0.8–2 °C cooler than average in the central equatorial Pacific

• warmer than average across much of the north Pacific, with much of the region surrounding and to the east of Japan more than 3–4 °C warmer than average

• 0.8–2 °C warmer than average around the north-west of Australia's coastline and parts of the Tasman and Coral seas

• 0.4–1.2 °C warmer than average across most of the Maritime Continent.

The Niño indices for the week ending 13 October 2024 are:

Niño3, −0.1 °C; Niño3.4, −0.5 °C; and Niño4, +0.04 °C. The Niño3.4 index reflects historically neutral ENSO conditions.

5-day sub-surface temperatures

For the 5 days ending 13 October 2024, the analysis shows:

• sub-surface temperatures around 1 °C cooler than average in the central equatorial Pacific (between 125 m and 200 m depth) and in the eastern equatorial Pacific (between 50 m and 100 m depth).

• sub-surface temperature anomalies more than 3 °C warmer than average in the shallow eastern equatorial sub-surface (above 50 m depth).

Long-range forecast overview

Issued: 10 October 2024

The long-range forecast for November to January shows:

• Above average rainfall is likely across much of southern and eastern Australia.

• Warmer than average days and nights are likely to very likely across most of Australia.

• Unusually high minimum temperatures are very likely for much of northern and eastern Australia.

Our forecasts have greater accuracy closer to the forecast period. Refer to our weekly updates to follow the evolution of rainfall and temperature patterns as the November to January season approaches.

New South Wales forecast air temperature over land

Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for 20 Oct – 2 Nov