Showing posts with label BOM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BOM. Show all posts

Sunday, 8 September 2024

The dysfunctional organisational structure of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology continues to be laid bare


The World Meteorological Organisation website describes Dr. Andrew Johnson as;

CEO and Director of Meteorology at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. He joined the Bureau in late 2016 and was reappointed for a further five-year team in 2021. He is also Australia’s permanent representative to the World Meteorological Organisation in Geneva. Andrew has held several non-executive directorships across a range of domains in the private, government owned corporation and not-for-profit sectors, both in Australia and internationally. He has a PhD from the University of Queensland and a Masters from the Kennedy School at Harvard University where he was a Rotary Foundation scholar. Andrew is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technology & Engineering and the Australian Institute of Company Directors.


What the website neglects to say can be found in two September 2024 media articles and one February 2024 legal judgment, which laid bare the disintegrating organisational structure of the once almost universally well-respected Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the part played by senior executives.


The Saturday Paper, 7 September 2024:


Late last month, Dr Andrew Johnson brought together the entire staff of the Bureau of Meteorology. It was intended as a town hall-style meeting to thank them for making it to the other end of a $1 billion, seven-year overhaul of the organisation.


Instead, the beleaguered chief executive told them the landmark project – designed to update the observing equipment, security and resilience of the agency – was a year past due, not close to being finished, over budget by at least $150 million, likely more, and that the bureau was now essentially broke.


At the same time, redundancies were being quietly offered across the agency.


At the beginning of the almost two-hour-long “strategy and focus” session, staff were reminded by general manager of communications Tim McLean that the presentation was an “internal bureau event” and its content marked “official: sensitive”.


The Saturday Paper has obtained an audio recording of the entire address that was leaked, a source says, because of an enduring dissatisfaction with the leadership of the agency and its alleged mishandling of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of contracts relating to the internal transformation program known as Robust.


Over the past two years, dozens of Bureau of Meteorology employees have spoken to this newspaper about their concerns relating to the umbrella project, which seemed to them to have been plagued by delays, cost blowouts and waste. Now they have some confirmation.


In his address, Johnson seemed keen for applause when his presentation over teleconference concluded. He was met with silence.....


And now the agency is broke according to our management,” a source says, “and APS staff are cleaning up the unfinished and in many cases not-up-to-requirements work left behind by the contractors.”


Another source queries whether, even now, the figures and details finally being released are correct. Take, for example, Johnson’s claim that the entire Robust program of work was a year late and “as at 30 June, 10 per cent more than what we budgeted for when we did the budget in 2017”.


This week, a day after being sent questions by The Saturday Paper, the bureau released a media statement claiming the Robust work cost $866 million to June 30. In the leaked address to all staff, the project leader in charge of Robust was clear that the work was never finished: they just renamed it.


The work that wasn’t finalised under Robust will now happen over the next year as part of the “Robust transition program” at additional cost in terms of budget and delayed dependent upgrades....


The list of upgrades and enhancements supposed to have been delivered but that have not yet been finalised is long. It includes the Australis-II supercomputer, a second and vastly more powerful bureau supercomputer that is now more than six years overdue. Although it has been brought “online” and publicly announced as having been delivered just weeks ago, the machine is still being tested.


And so the program definitely had its challenges, and there are a few outstanding scope that we still need to deliver, and they’re now wrapped up in what we’re calling the Robust transition program, and that program has been established to complete the remaining scope that we set out in the business case,” Robust program director Nichole Brinsmead told staff during the presentation.


That includes things like finalising the tsunami [warning] replacement project, finalising the flood [warning] upgrade, completing the testing of the new supercomputer, which has dependency on the MTU [maximum transmission unit] upgrade and moving our model production capability into the new data centre.


There’s also the finalisation of the AWS [automatic weather stations], so we need to get to the point where we’ve actually completed all the testing of the new AWS local processing unit, and then we could commence rollout there. And there’s a few other components in there as well. There’s some data management, data platform capability that needs to be complete. And we’ve also had to set up a separate capability to support the primary weather services and the visualisation capability for our operational forecasting.”


A new website for the bureau, delivered almost two years late, is now public for beta testing and will be launched into full production next year. Contracts for that service, which went to Accenture for a sum of $31 million in 2019, were extended for a ninth time on July 22 and more than doubled in cost to $75 million. Similarly, costs for a data integration platform tripled from $11 million to $35 million and the contract for a data management platform more than quadrupled in fees to $67 million.


We all know the public trusts us, but that trust is contingent on being able to continue providing the service they trust. And under our current management, they’re obsessed with optics not output.”


These cost blowouts were attributed to “dependent delays due to the availability of ICT infrastructure” or additional work made at the bureau’s request. In other words, the failure to complete one Robust program measure had flow-on effects and caused delays and cost overruns in other related matters.


As previously reported by The Saturday Paper, the ongoing inability to launch the new supercomputer Australis-II from 2018 torpedoed efforts by the Bureau of Meteorology to introduce its promised 2019 release of the latest forecast simulation model, the Australian Parallel Suite 4 (APS4), a powerful upgrade from the current APS3 version.


That work was abandoned. Similarly, BoM researchers noted earlier this year that their own work on the Australian Fire Danger Rating System could not be verified in real time because Australis-II was not ready.....


Meteorologists have told The Saturday Paper these changes and various edicts from on high have led to a loss of local forecaster knowledge, and have confirmed that ordinary forecasts had reduced in quality because bureau management had not sanctioned experienced meteorologists to take small amounts of time to fix known errors in the automatic model outputs.


As these decisions accumulated, Robust projects hit serious delays that rippled through the organisation. During this, Johnson pressed the button on a Bureau of Meteorology rebrand that he claimed was not a rebrand but a “brand refresh”. All internal documents said otherwise.


The million-dollar operation was launched in October 2022 and included a new logo designed under Johnson’s direction and a ridiculed new directive that media and staff should no longer refer to the “BoM” but only to “the Bureau”. Part of the cost was attributed to the hiring of an external PR firm, The C Word Communications. The C Word founder, Jack Walden, was then hired as a general manager in the comms division. He stayed on for almost three years but has been made redundant.


Meteorologists were furious the rebrand happened at all, especially as it sucked crucial resources out of a strapped organisation in the middle of a run of severe weather.


Now, Johnson has come as close to apologising for the saga as he ever has.


Clearly, we took a lot of learnings out of the brand refresh process,” he told staff.


It didn’t go as well as we’d have liked. We’ve learned. We’ve learned deeply and reflected deeply on that, on that process.”


The fiasco sharpened attention on the BoM. Johnson concedes the criticism hurt.


I know from time to time there’s negative commentary about what it is we do,” he said.


And I know many of us feel that when we see things written in the newspapers.....


In the Federal Circuit Court case, staff found confirmation of something they’d long feared: that management were not being honest with them about the state of the organisation.


If they’re willing to mislead the court, they’re not too fussed about telling us the truth are they,” one BoM employee says. “Everything is waved away or minimised.”....


In a world where consequences are slim, BoM staff don’t expect any from this saga or the failures of the Robust program. According to an official answer to Senate estimates, Johnson “does not have a formal performance agreement” in place.


Besides, he said, the cost overruns and ongoing delays performed better than a home renovation job.


I think any fair and reasonable person would say this is quite an amazing result,” he said. “I don’t know about you, but if you want to get a tradie or a plumber or a chippie or a sparkie now, compared with what you got in 2017, everything costs more.”


As one employee noted, it was “bizarre logic”, not least because the cost blowout would end up being much more than the claimed “10 per cent”.


I don’t know a tradie charging billions of taxpayer dollars and only delivering half of what they’re supposed to and charging more than they’re supposed to,” they said.


Honestly everyone thought he was going to step down at this meeting and I think a lot of people were bitterly disappointed that he didn’t.”


Then there is the matter of the Bureau's workplace relations which when made public further shattered confidence in this organisation.


In 2018 Jasmine Chambers took up the position of General Manager, Global and National Science Relations at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), with a total remuneration package of $218,700.00 per annum.


Reading between the lines it appears Ms. Chambers offended the alpha male sensibilities of one or more senior executives in an organisation which still has a predominately male workforce.


What followed looked suspiciously like a sustained effort to remove her from employment with BOM and such employment ceased with effect on 21 December 2020.


The Sydney Morning Herald, 5 September 2024:


The Bureau of Meteorology has lost a bitterly fought unfair dismissal case that dates back more than five years, while a raft of current and former employees have come forward to describe the workplace culture as “toxic” and “chaotic”.


The Commonwealth agency dropped its appeal of an unfair dismissal decision in favour of former employee Jasmine Chambers, who joined in 2019 as general manager of global and national science relationships. The appeal case was settled out of court late last month, which means the findings from the earlier judgment stand.


In a scathing judgment in February, Judge Doug Humphreys, from the Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia, found the bureau had breached the Fair Work Act in four ways when it drove Chambers out of the organisation in 2020.


The Chambers case concludes as five other current and former employees, speaking on condition of anonymity, have shared claims with this masthead of a “toxic” culture, “chaotic” decision-making, and bullying.


All five claim that part of the reason for low staff morale was an institutional reluctance to deal with questions about climate change and extreme weather at a time when the nation was dealing with mounting climate disasters such as bushfires and floods. The BoM denies these claims.....


The court criticised several managers, particularly chief executive Dr Andrew Johnson. The former Coalition government appointed Johnson in 2016 and renewed the position for another five years in 2021.


The court formed the view that Dr Johnson managed the bureau using a close and detailed management style, in which his views were final and not subject to any challenge,” the judgment says....


Read the full article at:

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/bom-loses-illegal-sacking-case-as-staff-condemn-toxic-and-chaotic-culture-20240817-p5k35d.html



Extract from Chambers v Commonwealth of Australia ( Bureau of Meteorology ) (No 2) [2024] FedCFamC2G 100 (9 February 2024). Last updated: 3 June 2024:


"83.The Court accepts that the applicant has tried to recall her evidence as best she can and overall, the Court finds her evidence is reliable and credible.


84. Dr Brunet joined the Bureau shortly before the applicant. He had occupied senior positions within similar organisations in other countries and had moved to Australia to take up the position he occupied. While he agreed he approved the applicant’s overseas travel plan in advance, including the PTO and annual leave, he refused to accept any responsibility for the approval not complying with usual requirements. The Court accepts the applicant’s recall of a conversation in July 2019 where Dr Brunet said to the applicant “Don’t show me the rules, - you need to learn. I do not have time to read the documentation that I am approving. I have to trust my people, you and others, that you will not do the wrong thing”. The Court formed the view that Dr Brunet was not prepared to accept any personal responsibility for any matters involving the applicant where it may have negatively impacted upon his position within the Bureau. It was clear that Dr Brunet would defer in his view on any matter to that of Dr Johnson, even where he may have disagreed with that view. His Affidavit evidence needs to be carefully scrutinised and compared to the contemporary records before being relied upon....


89. Dr Johnson gave both Affidavit and oral evidence and was cross examined for some time. The Court formed a view that he had significant reservations in relation to the applicant, in that she did not come from the scientific background and that she took “strong positions” whereas in his view, the applicant should have backed off and listened. Dr Brunet described these actions as embarrassing to Dr Johnson (Court Book 175). The Court formed the view that Dr Johnson managed the Bureau using a close and detailed management style, in which his views were final, and not subject to any challenge. The fact that the applicant pushed back, seeking examples and justifications for positions, in the Court’s view, would have been a matter that would have exacerbated Dr Johnson’s negative views of the applicant....


91. Dr [Peter] Stone’s evidence is dealt with further on in this judgment. The Court found his evidence unsatisfactory and not credible or reliable. He sought to explain away issues with his evidence. His explanations were unconvincing. The lack of credibility of Dr Stone’s evidence however not only impacts upon his evidence. It impacts on the entire narrative being put forward by the Bureau. It invites negative findings as to the whole of the narrative, despite the evidence of other witnesses." 


Wednesday, 15 May 2024

Is this going to be one of the shorter 'neutral' periods in that dance Australia's weather conditions do between El Niño and La Niña climate patterns - approximately 44 days before the pointer swung towards "La Niña Watch"

 

It appears that Australia has a 50-50 chance of entering a La Niña event in the second half of 2024.


La Niña typically means:

  • Increased rainfall across much of Australia

  • Cooler daytime temperatures (south of the tropics)

  • Warmer overnight temperatures (in the north)

  • Shift in temperature extremes

  • Decreased frost risk

  • Greater tropical cyclone numbers

  • Earlier monsoon onset


According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology: In eastern Australia, the average December-March rainfall during La Niña years is 20% higher than the long-term average, with eight of the ten wettest such periods occurring during La Niña years. This is particularly notable for the east coast, which tends to be less affected by La Niña during the winter months but can experience severe flooding during La Niña summers.


The record breaking NSW Northern Rivers floods of February-March 2022 occurred in a La Niña event - part of the 'triple dip' La Niña which occurred in 2020-2022.


Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Climate Driver Update: Climate drivers in the Pacific, Indian and Southern oceans and the Tropics

14 May 2024

SUMMARY


La Niña Watch—some signs of La Niña formation later in 2024

La Niña Watch


The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. There are some early signs that a La Niña might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has shifted to La Niña Watch. When La Niña Watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has subsequently developed around 50% of the time. There is about an equal chance of neutral ENSO conditions in the same outlook period.


Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023. This surface cooling is supported by a significant amount of sub-surface cooling in the central and eastern Pacific. Recent cloud and surface pressure patterns are ENSO-neutral.


The Bureau's modelling suggests that ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024. It is important to emphasise that early signs of La Niña are most relevant to the climate of the tropical Pacific, and that the long-range forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature provides better guidance for local climate.


The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The most recent 2 weeks have seen the IOD index within neutral thresholds, and follow 7 weeks of the index being above the positive IOD threshold (+0.40 °C). The current SST observations suggest that recent development of a positive IOD may have stalled. If a positive IOD eventually develops, it would be earlier in the calendar year than is typical historically.


Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been the warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and April 2024, with April 2024 SSTs warmer than April 2023. The global pattern of warmth is affecting the typical historical global pattern of sea surface temperatures associated with ENSO and IOD variability. As the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences of how ENSO or IOD may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable.


The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral (as at 13 May). Forecasts indicate the index is mostly likely to remain neutral or become positive in the coming fortnight.


The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak. Most models forecast indicate that the MJO will remain weak before re-strengthening over the eastern Indian Ocean or Maritime Continent region from mid- to late-May.


Sunday, 10 March 2024

El Niño persists and although it is likely to disappear by May 2024 it may become harder to reliably predict what will follow in the future

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 5 March 2024


Neutral ENSO likely during autumn



El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.


Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Niño state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Niño strength.


International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.


Based on the historical record from 1900, around 50% of El Niño events have been followed by an ENSO-neutral year, and 40 to 50% have been followed by La Niña. However, global oceans have warmed significantly over the past 50 years. The oceans have been the warmest on record globally between April 2023 and January 2024. These changes may impact future predictions of ENSO events, if based solely on historical climate variability.


The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April. This is because the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean changing wind patterns and preventing the IOD pattern from forming.


The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral, as of 3 March. Forecasts indicate SAM will remain neutral over the coming fortnight.


The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the eastern Indian Ocean. The MJO is forecast to move into the Maritime Continent in the coming days and progress eastwards towards the Western Pacific over the coming fortnight. When the MJO is in the eastern Indian Ocean, increased cloudiness tends to occur over the eastern Indian Ocean and western parts of South East Asia. As the MJO shifts into the Maritime Continent, increased cloudiness tends to occur over parts of the far north of Australia and the islands of South East Asia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.


The annual global mean temperature for the 12 months from February 2023 to January 2024 was the highest on record, with Copernicus reporting that it was 1.52 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. However, this does not mean that the 1.5 °C target referred to in the Paris Agreement has been exceeded as the magnitude of global warming is assessed using multi-year averages, and this is only one 12-month period.


Australia's climate has warmed by 1.50 ± 0.23 °C between 1910 and 2023, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia during the wet season. April to October rainfall has declined across southern Australia in recent decades, due to a combination of long-term natural variability and changes in atmospheric circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.


[my yellow highlighting]


Saturday, 3 February 2024

Saturday's Mood: HOT!


Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Rivers Forecast, issued at 4:30 pm EDT on Friday 2 February 2024:


Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge into southern and western New South Wales today, while a trough of low pressure lies over the northeast. This trough will decay early Saturday as the high moves to the Tasman Sea, although a new trough is forecast to develop in the west during the weekend. This pattern will direct hot air from central Australia across New South Wales, peaking in many areas during Sunday. The remnants of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily look set to be drawn into the inland trough during Monday, potentially bringing significant rain to some western areas, before the whole system weakens and shifts to the state's east on Tuesday.


Heatwave Situation for 3 days starting Saturday 3rd February 2024 

Click on image to enlarge

NOTE: Heatwave mapping for this cycle commenced Wednesday 31 January 2024.


Tuesday, 19 September 2023

The north-east NSW coastal fringe started the week with reasonable land & sea temperatures and only 6 bush & grass fires at advice level


Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 18 September 2023: 

Air-Surface Temperature 4pm Monday 18 September 2023
MAP: BOM






Between 6am to 4pm Monday 18 September 2023 temperatures along the coastal fringe of north-east NSW ranged from 5.5°C to 26.7°C as the day progressed.


Sea Surface Temperatures & Current Direction 
4pm Monday 18 September 2023
MAP: BOM




The East Australian Current was still bringing waters close to shore which were a comfortable 20-21°C at 4pm Monday 18 September 2023.


This may not last long.....


Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Warmer than median October to December days and nights for almost all of Australia

Issued: 14 September 2023


For October to December, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

For October to December, most of Australia is at least 3 times likely to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times likely for most of western and central WA, and parts of central and south-eastern Australia. Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

For October to December, minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia apart from a small area of Queensland's North Tropical Coast.

For October to December, broad areas of Australia are at least 2.5 times likely to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than four times likely for parts of central WA, southern Queensland, and north-east NSW. Unusually high minimum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

Past accuracy of the October to December long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia, dropping to low to moderate for parts of north-western Australia.


Tuesday, 20 June 2023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Outlook for next three months - Part 1

 


There is weather and there is climate.


While we grumble about cold weather and rain this winter, global warming is still inexorably changing Australia's climate as the continent and the oceans around it grow warmer and seasonal rainfalls become more erratic.


La Niña only dissipated in early March 2023 and El Niño was present in the Northern Hemisphere by early June and may be across the Southern Hemisphere before September - the ocean around the Galapagos Islands just south of the Equator is already warming to 20 degrees. It is beginning to appear as if the near average weather pattern period between these two extremes in the global ENSO cycle is beginning to contract.


This is the long range forecast for the next three months for Australia.


Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate outlooks—weeks, months and seasons:


Long-range forecast overview

Issued: 15 June 2023


  • For July to September, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for much of the eastern two-thirds of Australia and south-west WA.

  • July to September maximum temperatures are likely to very likely warmer than median (60% to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

  • Above median July to September minimum temperatures likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia.

  • This forecast is influenced by a number of factors, including warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean beyond El Niño thresholds, the potential development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and record warm oceans globally.


Currently Australia’s ENSO Outlook shows El Niño ALERT, which indicates a 70% chance of El Niño forming this year. This equates to roughly three times the normal chance of an El Niño forming.


Rainfall - Totals that have a 75% chance of occurring for July to September














Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for July to September














Australia: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Outlook – July to November 2023




U.S. NOAA Daily Global 5km Satellite Sea Surface Temperature, 17 July 2023



Click on images to enlarge



Friday, 17 March 2023

La Niña has ended - ENSO now neutral. El Niño WATCH has begun.

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Climate Driver Update, media release, 14 March 2023:


Current status: EL NIÑO WATCH


La Niña has ended - ENSO now neutral. El Niño WATCH issued


  • La Niña has ended in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) with oceanic and atmospheric indicators having returned to neutral ENSO levels.


  • International climate models suggest neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist through the southern autumn. However, there are some signs that El Niño could form later in the year. Hence the Bureau has issued an El Niño WATCH. This means there is a 50% chance of an El Niño in 2023.


  • The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently very strong over the Pacific Ocean but is forecast to move into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming fortnight. This may bring drier conditions to Australia for the latter half of March.


  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently strongly negative but is expected to return to neutral values over the coming weeks.


  • Warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist around south-east Australia, New Zealand and the west coast of Australia, but close to average temperatures prevail around northern Australia.


  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral – the IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate while the monsoon trough is in the southern hemisphere (typically December to April). Forecasts for the IOD made at this time of the year have low accuracy beyond April.


  • Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C over the period 1910–2021. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10 to 20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.


Wednesday, 21 December 2022

La Niña continues into the Australian Summer

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Driver Update, 20 Dec 2022:



  • La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, but some indicators show signs of declining strength. La Niña typically increases the chance of above average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during summer. Models suggest that ocean temperatures may reach ENSO-neutral levels during January or February 2023, and remain at neutral levels until at least April. Model accuracy for lead times greater than four months is generally lower at this time of year than at other times, so outlooks beyond April should be viewed with caution.


  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and has little influence on Australian climate while the monsoon trough is in the southern hemisphere (typically December to April).


  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a positive phase and is likely to be neutral to positive through January and February. During summer, a positive SAM increases the chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia and below average rainfall for western Tasmania.


  • The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to move across the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific regions over the coming fortnight, which may lead to increased westerly flow and rainfall across parts of northern Australia. The influence of the MJO may lead to the onset of the Australian monsoon during this time, while also increasing the risk of tropical low and cyclone formation across the region.


  • Sea surface temperatures remain warmer than average in the western Pacific, much of the Maritime Continent, and around northern Australia, particularly in the Coral Sea. Warmer Australian waters, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall.


  • Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C in the period 1910–2021. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.


Next update expected by 3 January 2022


Sunday, 23 October 2022

It appears that the rot set in at the Bureau of Meteorology within a few months of Scott Morrison becoming prime minister and sadly when BOM was needed most it is alleged in had become highly dysfunctional


There absolutely needs to be a royal commission into what happened at Lismore. I saw grad mets barely off course in charge of things they would never have been in charge of up until that point. Lismore happened right in the short-staffing period. We go into that event, everyone is already fatigued and working long hours.” [The Saturday Paper, 22 October 2022]


The Saturday Paper, 22 October 2022:


The workplace culture at the Bureau of Meteorology is so toxic that a man was hospitalised twice for psychiatric care, another had a heart attack while working extreme overtime, and was asked to come back earlier than a doctor advised, and at least five more staff took stress leave because of panic attacks and anxiety regarding management oversight.


More than 20 staff have left the media and communications division at the BoM in the past 18 months. The entire marketing team at the agency was “bloodlet” and removed during a restructure and rebranding effort that consumed the time and resources of the weather office during a period of intensifying calamity relating to climate change and natural disasters. Senior meteorologists have also left.


Since June last year, the bureau has spent more than $260,000 with Elm Communications Canberra Pty Ltd, just trying to plug gaps in its public affairs workforce.


Although many of the concerns relate to the media division, meteorologists and other staff have complained of “the severe dysfunction” in this area infecting other parts of the service. Gag orders have been issued to prevent forecasters from speaking to journalists unless their comments are pre-approved. Media managers have explicitly banned the mention of climate change in connection with severe weather events.


In one case during major New South Wales flooding in March last year, an edict was issued that BoM forecasters and other specialists were not to speak to any media after a meteorologist was accused of “fluffing” his lines on climate change.


A spokesperson for the BoM denies this.


In addition to the above concerns, The Saturday Paper can reveal the Commonwealth agency admitted some months ago to staff that it has not been paying overtime correctly and has so far failed to reimburse employees. Indeed, it stopped communicating with them in August about the issue.


The bureau says, in a response to The Saturday Paper, that a “discrepancy” was identified and “an audit of overtime payments is currently under way and all payments made dating from 1 June 2021 are being reviewed”.


The Saturday Paper has spoken with 20 current and former staff members at the bureau to establish a distressing and farcial account of a government agency’s response to a changing climate.


Details in this account that do not appear within quotation marks have nevertheless been provided by individuals who spoke on the condition of anonymity, fearing reprisals…..


There is so much focus on rebranding efforts like this and all of this window dressing and, in the meantime, the staff are really struggling to get the work done. We have lost so many people due to the [public service] transition to national production.”


Under these reforms, which began after the appointment of Andrew Johnson as director of the BoM, regional forecasting centres in every state and territory have been shuttered. State managers have been sacked and a national desk has been created instead. Johnson has pushed the project with fervour. The new branding, complete with public insistence that the Bureau of Meteorology be referred to respectfully as the Bureau, was, according to sources at the BoM, “completely driven by him”……


The Saturday Paper can reveal that the planned name change and new “corporate presence” began more than three years ago and cost far more than has been reported. In December 2018, the BoM paid almost $90,000 to brand specialists The Contenders for work on the new “positioning project” between then and April 2019. When a new general manager of communications – Emma Liepa – took over in April 2020, she “canned the project” and restarted it using her preferred contractor, The C Word Communications Agency Pty Ltd, owned and operated by Jack Walden. The BoM has characterised this contract as a “preliminary analysis” of perceptions about the agency and its “position in the marketplace” and not part of the “Brand project”.


Walden’s The C Word agency won a $70,000 contract in September last year in a “limited tender” to progress this project. Walden is now a senior manager of communications delivery at the BoM, having started in late November last year.


The Saturday Paper understands that Walden was hired as an EL2 “upper”, the same pay band as his boss Liepa, and is an ongoing public service employee. Walden also worked with Liepa in her previous role at the Victorian Healthcare Association. The Saturday Paper is not suggesting there is anything inappropriate in his employment.


In this case, a conflict of interest was advised,” a BoM spokesperson said.


There was no overlap between the work as a consultant and work when he [Walden] commenced as an employee with the Bureau.”


Internally, the rebranding has been prosecuted with fervour by Liepa and her colleagues but resisted and mocked by more junior staff. This is at odds with a BoM statement that says the sentiment, and feedback, from employees has been “overwhelmingly positive”.


Recently Andrew Johnson launched the new 2022-2027 strategy and rounded off the presentation by telling us all that we had to print off the strategy, read it and he would be testing us if he bumped into us in the office,” a staff member says. “He was dead serious.”


A forecaster who cannot be identified because they still work with the BoM said the “reaction around me on shift over the last few weeks to the new branding announcements has been somewhere between exasperated laughter and anger”.


They continue, “That this is prioritised by management, over severe long-term understaffing of mets [meteorologists] – seemingly not of management and consultants – combined with a huge top-to-bottom restructure of the public service hitting the really hairy stages.


All of this at the tail end of three La Niñas in a row with the potential for most of the east coast to flood so easily. Meteorologists are tired and overworked. The public reaction today was honestly wonderful and heartwarming. I’m so happy the public saw the bullshit instantly.”


Neither Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek, whose portfolio includes the BoM, nor her office, was aware the agency was about to launch its controversial edict and new look publicly in the middle of a flooding crisis across Victoria. When she demanded an urgent briefing, the response from senior bureau managers was “cagey” and “unsatisfactory”, according to people familiar with the exchange. Internally, BoM staff were told that they were to move full steam ahead and that the minister’s office was happy.


But what the minister’s office did not know, because the BoM did not tell them, was that the full cost of this rebranding was closer to $750,000, with some of that cost completely unnecessary after the banishing of The Contenders and early work done by that firm.


When Plibersek’s people demanded a full list of contracts, this was not mentioned. The Saturday Paper has confirmed this separately using information provided by concerned employees. Bizarrely, the BoM hired EY Sweeney on a $93,000 contract in March to conduct market research regarding the rebrand. What the consultants found was that just 15 per cent of people recognised the Bureau of Meteorology as “the Bureau” – the preferred name for brand recognition in the now-failed repositioning. More than 60 per cent, however, associated “BoM” with the agency.


What matters, according to every staff member who spoke for this piece, is that this side quest isn’t just a bad look. While these dramatic restructures and fiddly public relations exercises unfolded, some of the worst flooding in Australian history happened in northern NSW.


Residents in Lismore in particular were trapped after catastrophic flooding appeared to catch officials off guard. While the SES, itself struggling with a new centralisation plan, is responsible for issuing evacuation orders, they rely on information from the national meteorologists and hydrologists at the bureau.


The BoM went into this PST [Public Sector Transformation] understaffed, and only lost countless more staff during PST, not realising that not everyone wants to uproot their lives and move to Melbourne or Brisbane,” a meteorologist said.


There absolutely needs to be a royal commission into what happened at Lismore. I saw grad mets barely off course in charge of things they would never have been in charge of up until that point. Lismore happened right in the short-staffing period. We go into that event, everyone is already fatigued and working long hours.”


At this time – when a meteorologist was due to speak at a press conference about the unfolding flooding emergency in NSW, next to Premier Dominic Perrottet – there was a particular sensitivity within the agency about the warnings provided to the public. This forecaster was told they could speak only from pre-approved lines.


A separate source, who is no longer with the BoM, told The Saturday Paper that the organisation was “down 24 or 25” meteorologists and there were “no meteorologists in management”. The source said good people were slowly forced out, especially meteorologists: “There is such a strangled culture there now.”


After being appointed by the former Coalition government to head the BoM, Johnson set about an aggressive reform program, parts of which former employees concede were much needed. But it happened so fast it caused serious issues across the business.


The rate of change, ineffective change, that has happened has been a huge problem because there are so many conflicting priorities, that the bureau basically just ground to a halt,” a source says.


All the money just got funnelled into [PST] and squandered through massive use of contractors and people who didn’t have core knowledge of the bureau, so it took lots of time to ramp up to speed and the like.


Really important projects like ours just got buried and not funded because all the money just got funnelled off into these other areas.”


One of the projects that was delayed and underfunded was the upgrade of the bureau’s warning systems – a multi-part program with many moving parts – which was left in disarray.


As science was censored or relegated to the sideline and messages became more tightly controlled, the culture at the BoM deteriorated even further. In July and August this year, tens of thousands of dollars were paid to the conflict resolution firm Momentum, which promised to mediate workplace disputes and teach staff how to get along…….


The full article can read here.