Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Outlook for next three months - Part 1

 

There is weather and there is climate.

While we grumble about cold weather and rain this winter, global warming is still inexorably changing Australia's climate as the continent and the oceans around it grow warmer and seasonal rainfalls become more erratic.

La Niña only dissipated in early March 2023 and El Niño was present in the Northern Hemisphere by early June and may be across the Southern Hemisphere before September - the ocean around the Galapagos Islands just south of the Equator is already warming to 20 degrees. It is beginning to appear as if the near average weather pattern period between these two extremes in the global ENSO cycle is beginning to contract.

This is the long range forecast for the next three months for Australia.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate outlooks—weeks, months and seasons:

Long-range forecast overview

Issued: 15 June 2023

• For July to September, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for much of the eastern two-thirds of Australia and south-west WA.

• July to September maximum temperatures are likely to very likely warmer than median (60% to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

• Above median July to September minimum temperatures likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia.

• This forecast is influenced by a number of factors, including warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean beyond El Niño thresholds, the potential development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and record warm oceans globally.

Currently Australia’s ENSO Outlook shows El Niño ALERT, which indicates a 70% chance of El Niño forming this year. This equates to roughly three times the normal chance of an El Niño forming.

Rainfall - Totals that have a 75% chance of occurring for July to September

Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for July to September

Australia: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Outlook – July to November 2023

U.S. NOAA Daily Global 5km Satellite Sea Surface Temperature, 17 July 2023

Click on images to enlarge