Wednesday 11 May 2022

Australian Federal Election 2022: so who are NSW Northern Rivers voters and how do we compare with the other 16.98 million enrolled voters?


An est. 17,793,140 Australian citizens are eligible to vote at the federal election on 21 May 2022 and at least 96.8% (17.22 million) of these citizens are on the current Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) national electoral roll.


Est. 5.44 million of these enrolled voters live in New South Wales and 4.41% of the state's voters hail from the Northern Rivers region of the state.


NSW Northern River region
from Clarence Valley in the south to Tweed Heads on the NSW-Qld border
IMAGE: Google Earth snapshot 


In the two Northern Rivers federal electorates, Page has 122,915 enrolled voters and Richmond has 118,652. In both electorates there are more female than male voters – with est. 51.4% of all voters being female in Page and est. 51.1% being female in Richmond.


There are now 5,472,469 young voters between 18 to 24 years on the national electoral roll.


An est. 8,796 of these younger voters are in the Page electorate and another est. 7,627 younger voters are in the Richmond electorate. In this age group in both electorates there are also more females than males.


Based on AEC age groupings, nationally the largest voting bloc is people 70 years of age and older at 2,948,739 people.


The largest voting bloc in the Page electorate in 2022 is people 70 years of age and older at 27,834 individuals, with 51.1% being female. When it comes to the Richmond electorate in 2022, based on age groupings the largest voting bloc is also people aged 70 years of age and older at 28,396 individuals with 53.7% being female.


By 9 May 2022 there had been almost 2 million postal vote applications received and processed by the Australian Electoral Commission. That’s in addition to those already permanently registered as General Postal Voters.


As of 9 May a total of 1,648 of these new postal vote applications were made by people living in the Page electorate and 1,405 new applications were made by people residing in the Richmond electorate. By 10 May application numbers had risen to 2,117 and 2,359 respectively, but as yet no completed postal ballots have been listed by the AEC as "returned".


An AAP Bulletin Wire on 10 May 2022 reported that on 9 May “More than 300,000 people have already turned out for pre-polling on just the first day of early voting.


The number of Northern Rivers enrolled voters who were recorded as having pre-polled on 9 May was 1,581 in the Page electorate and 3,305 in Richmond electorate.


At a federal general election all 151 of the House of Representatives seats and those Senate seats where the set term of a senator has finished (which is usually around half the Senate total of 74 seats) are contested.


A breakdown of the candidates standing for election on 21 May 2022 show that 1,203 candidates are vying for seats in the House of Representatives and 421 for seats in the Senate. These figures represent an increase of 147 House of Representatives candidates since the 2019 federal general election and a decrease of 37 Senate candidates since that same 2019 election.


A total of 10 candidates are listed on the House of Representatives ballot paper for the Page electorate and another 10 candidates on the House of Representatives ballot paper for the Richmond electorate. This represents an increase of 3 candidates on the Page ballot paper and an increase of two on the Richmond ballot paper since the 2019 federal election.


The New South Wales Senate ballot paper contains the names of 75 candidates across 24 political designations.


In 2022 can the Northern Rivers meet or pass its 2019 voter participation numbers?


At the 2019 federal general election 91.9% of all Australian enrolled voters cast a vote at that election. 


In 2019 in the Page electorate 113,548 people voted in the federal election, with 95.25% of these votes recorded as formal & 4.45% informal. Page voter participation was 92.5% of all enrolled voters.

In the same year in the Richmond electorate 108,381 people voted in the federal election, with 92.56% of all votes recorded as formal & 7.44% informal. Richmond voter participation was 90.8% of all enrolled voters.


PRINCIPAL SOURCES


https://aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/

https://aec.gov.au/election/downloads.htm

https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm

https://aec.gov.au/media/files/aec-federal-election-reporting-guide-digital.pdf

https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-138.htm

https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-145.htm


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