Showing posts with label national electorate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label national electorate. Show all posts

Friday, 6 January 2023

Global oil and gas industries make a combined US$4 billion in profit a day (or US$1 trillion annually) & have done so for the past 50 years. That obscene wealth is thought to be how these industries induce politicians & governments to only pay lip service to the urgency of a world-wide climate emergency which is now lived experience

 

It’s a huge amount of money,” he said. “You can buy every politician, every system with all this money, and I think this happened. It protects [producers] from political interference that may limit their activities.....The rents captured by exploiting the natural resources are unearned. It’s real, pure profit. They captured 1% of all the wealth in the world without doing anything for it.”

[Prof Aviel Verbruggen, one of the lead authors of a 2012 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report & current Emeritus Professor Energy and Environmental Economics, University of Antwerp, Belgium, quoted in The Guardian, 21 July 2022]



Crikey, 8 December 2022, reprinted in Crikey Holiday Read, 5 January 2023:


Short of dictatorships, we are world leaders’: Australia’s record on criminalising environmental protest

MAEVE MCGREGOR


'The jailing of peaceful protesters is chilling for anyone who cares about our democracy — we need to restore and protect the right to protest before it’s too late.'


After the High Court’s decision on the Franklin River on 1 July 1983,” said Bob Brown to Crikey, referring to the famous Tasmanian dam case during which he was arrested, “I stated we had entered a new era of environmentalism and that it would never be so hard as it was in the Franklin campaign.”


I was totally wrong.”


Nearly 40 years on since the historic victory — in which the Commonwealth government succeeded in stopping the large hydroelectric Franklin Dam being built in Tasmania — the founder and former leader of the Greens was once again arrested, but this time under newly introduced laws that carry $13,000 fines or two years’ imprisonment for protests on a forestry site. The same laws also impose $45,000 fines on organisations, such as the Bob Brown Foundation, which lend support to such protests.


Far from heralding a new dawn for environmental justice, Brown said, the Franklin campaign had proved something of an aberration.


We now have a situation across Australia where environmentalists are jailed and environmental exploiters are protected and subsidised,” he said of his arrest a few weeks ago.


Instead of increasing environmental protection, we have laws that do the reverse — laws which foster the self-made environmental tragedy of this planet.”…..


Criminalising climate activism


The larger and more pressing dilemma, Brown said, — and one which belongs to the current age — is the growing tendency of government to criminalise peaceful protest, while climate breakdown and mass extinction envelop the world, forever sealing its fate.


In August, Victoria’s opposition united with the Andrews government to pass laws comparable to Tasmania’s, running roughshod over a chorus of concerns voiced by civil liberties groups, unions and environmentalists.


Three years earlier, in 2019, the Queensland government rushed through sweeping limits on the right to protest, underpinned by unsubstantiated claims of “extremist” conduct by environmentalists. The resulting legislation expanded police search powers and criminalised “dangerous locking devices” — such as superglue or anything activists might use to secure themselves to pavement or buildings — as a means to silence dissent.


And in New South Wales, concerns about traffic disruption were similarly seized upon following climate protests in Sydney and Port Botany earlier this year to hurry the introduction of two-year jail terms and $22,000 fines for “illegal protests”.


The laws, which criminalise “illegal protests” on rail lines, bridges, tunnels and — most contentiously — public roads, were passed within two days with the unqualified support of the Labor opposition mere weeks after the government flagged a crackdown on environmentalists.


Though seemingly aimed at “anarchist protesters”, as NSW Attorney-General Mark Speakman put it, the breadth of the provisions suggests otherwise.


Because the provisions are so loosely drafted, so imprecise, the laws can apply to almost any situation of people being on a road,” said Coco’s lawyer, Mark Davis.


The Roads Minister Natalie Ward didn’t know herself if ‘public road’ meant ‘major road’ or any and every road. It’s a disgrace. It gives police an unlimited, utterly arbitrary discretion to arrest anyone on a road protesting about anything, not just climate.


Short of some prominent dictatorships, we are world leaders with this kind of legislation. And the courts, or at least one court, has shown us the gun is loaded and they’re willing to fire it.”


Disruption and democracy


Against the backdrop of this legislation, now the subject of constitutional challenge, environmental demonstrators across Australia have regularly been denied bail or otherwise forced to contend with disproportionate bail conditions, while those residing in New South Wales have had espionage activities undertaken against them by a new police unit, Strike Force Guard.


In a statement to Crikey on Wednesday, New South Wales Deputy Premier and Minister for Police Paul Toole defended the laws.


Illegal protests that disrupt everyday life, whether it’s transport networks, freight chains, production lines or commuters trying to get to work or school, will not be tolerated,” he said.


It was a sentiment shared by Premier Dominic Perrottet, who days earlier labelled Coco’s 15-month prison sentence “pleasing to see”, adding “if protesters want to put our way of life at risk, then they should have the book thrown at them”.


In answer, the famous physicist and climate scientist Bill Hare said, via Twitter, that the inconvenience occasioned by “protest is not comparable to [the] catastrophic risk to [the] environment and serious damage to our way of life caused by fossil fuel emissions”.


Hare — the lead author for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, for which the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize — added that Perrottet’s statement was one of the “most regressive, anti-democratic statements” he could recall in Australia “for a long time”. [my yellow highlighting]


It’s a view which throws the shifting definition of what is deemed lawful dissent into sharp relief, Ray Yoshida of the Australian Democracy Network told Crikey.


It’s doublespeak for the NSW government to say they support protests as long as they don’t break the law, and then pass new laws that shrink the space for people to act,” he said.


The jailing of peaceful protesters is chilling for anyone who cares about our democracy — we need to restore and protect the right to protest before it’s too late.”


Had such laws existed at the time of many of Australia’s historic environmental wins — from the Franklin River to the Kakadu and Jabiluka blockades — many, perhaps all, would have met with failure.


There’s no doubt these laws would certainly have had an adverse impact on bringing to the public’s attention the Franklin Dam issue and, for that matter, a range of issues that have been brought to prominence in the public’s mind because of protests,” Greg Barns SC of the Australian Lawyers Alliance said.


He added people too often overlooked the hundreds of arrests which occurred during the Franklin River campaign, but under ordinary trespass laws that impose lesser penalties.


The reason [the new laws] are unnecessary is because there are already ample laws on the statute books, such as laws relating to trespass, criminal damage, that deal with these types of situations if people break the law,” he said.


What [Coco’s] sentence shows is that these new laws are draconian. Her sentence is a draconian penalty allowed for by a draconian law.”


Why now?


Given ours is the age of looming, if not inevitable, climate disaster, all of this poses the inevitable question: why the crackdown on environmentalists?


In Brown’s view, it’s no accident of history the techniques used by campaigners in the past are being targeted by government. It’s a phenomenon, he said, which conversely owes its existence to “state capture” by the fossil fuel and logging industries.


The extractive industries, who want to convert nature into profits, can no longer win the argument with the public on the environment, so they have to ‘take out’ the environmentalists,” he said.


These laws are meant to kill environmental activism and frighten people into silence.”


In this connection, there’s little denying climate anxiety, and concomitant calls for climate action pose a risk to such corporations.


A recent analysis of World Bank data undertaken by Belgian energy and environmental economist Aviel Verbruggen, a former lead author of an IPCC report, found the oil and gas industry had delivered more than $4 billion in profit every day for the past 50 years.


Following the report’s release, Verbruggen said: “You can buy every politician, every system with all this money, and I think this happened here. It protects [polluters] from political interference that may limit their activities.”


While Brown doesn’t believe any Australian politicians have been bribed or “bought”, so to speak, he said the lobbying power of the industry was obvious, both on a domestic and global level.


By and large, [our politicians] are just suborned by this lobbying tour de force, which is not being matched by the non-governmental sector, which is the guardian of the environment,” he said.


The striking similarity between Australian [anti-protest] legislation and the UK’s legislation is a clue which indicates we’ve got a global corporate governance.”


To buttress this view, Brown pointed to the $700 billion in taxpayer subsidies received by oil and gas companies globally in 2021.


Viewed in this context, he said, the anti-protest laws were self-evidently designed to shatter the unity underpinning the rise of collective, society-wide pressure to move on climate action.


Environmental Justice Australia ecosystems lawyer Natalie Hogan agreed the laws were a “politically motivated crackdown on legitimate political expression”, and ones that illustrated the efficacy of environmental campaigns.


These protests provide very important community oversight,” she said in reference to the illegal logging in Victorian forests exposed by environmental demonstrators and citizen science groups in recent years.


It seems very inconsistent to [tell Victorians] native logging will end by 2030, and then introduce laws that disproportionately criminalise or penalise people engaged in legitimate protests or citizen science in forests.”


Others, however, believe the anti-protest laws represent yet another skirmish on the law-and-order politics theme.


Banging the law-and-order drum has been fashionable for over 20 years,” Greg Barns said. “I think that’s the issue at play here — it just so happens to be climate change in this instance.”


The irony is that it will probably have the impact of emboldening protesters to take more extreme action because they see the laws as unjust.”


The future of protests


Not everyone has cast doubt on the deterrent effect of the laws, though. Coco’s lawyer Davis said the laws — which he defined as a “knee-jerk response to tabloid media” — would achieve their desired result.


Of course it will work — who would be insane enough to organise any sort of free protest? You can go to jail for a long time. It’s nuts,” he said.


Either way, Davis added, it’s clear such laws were placing the limits of Australia’s reputation as a liberal democracy under extraordinary pressure.


You cannot be a fully functional democracy if you cannot voice dissent to the government power,” he said. “It’s simply impossible.”


To be on a road, to use a road, is intrinsic to the right to protest and the fact that’s now seen as somehow radical tells you about the cultural shift we’re witnessing.”


Brown, for his part, believes it would be foolish to bet on a decline in environmental protest, notwithstanding the laws, given the climate predicament confronting the globe.....


But ultimately responsibility for [change will] fall to voters..... 


These laws will only continue to get worse if people don’t vote for the environment.”


After all, he said, dealing with global warming and the extinction crisis is, and always has been, about the balance of power.


BACKGROUND


North Coast Voices, Monday, 2 January 2023,

Who is undermining Australia’s climate change mitigation goals? Listing lobbyists contracted to act on behalf of fossil fuel industries.


Wednesday, 11 May 2022

Australian Federal Election 2022: so who are NSW Northern Rivers voters and how do we compare with the other 16.98 million enrolled voters?


An est. 17,793,140 Australian citizens are eligible to vote at the federal election on 21 May 2022 and at least 96.8% (17.22 million) of these citizens are on the current Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) national electoral roll.


Est. 5.44 million of these enrolled voters live in New South Wales and 4.41% of the state's voters hail from the Northern Rivers region of the state.


NSW Northern River region
from Clarence Valley in the south to Tweed Heads on the NSW-Qld border
IMAGE: Google Earth snapshot 


In the two Northern Rivers federal electorates, Page has 122,915 enrolled voters and Richmond has 118,652. In both electorates there are more female than male voters – with est. 51.4% of all voters being female in Page and est. 51.1% being female in Richmond.


There are now 5,472,469 young voters between 18 to 24 years on the national electoral roll.


An est. 8,796 of these younger voters are in the Page electorate and another est. 7,627 younger voters are in the Richmond electorate. In this age group in both electorates there are also more females than males.


Based on AEC age groupings, nationally the largest voting bloc is people 70 years of age and older at 2,948,739 people.


The largest voting bloc in the Page electorate in 2022 is people 70 years of age and older at 27,834 individuals, with 51.1% being female. When it comes to the Richmond electorate in 2022, based on age groupings the largest voting bloc is also people aged 70 years of age and older at 28,396 individuals with 53.7% being female.


By 9 May 2022 there had been almost 2 million postal vote applications received and processed by the Australian Electoral Commission. That’s in addition to those already permanently registered as General Postal Voters.


As of 9 May a total of 1,648 of these new postal vote applications were made by people living in the Page electorate and 1,405 new applications were made by people residing in the Richmond electorate. By 10 May application numbers had risen to 2,117 and 2,359 respectively, but as yet no completed postal ballots have been listed by the AEC as "returned".


An AAP Bulletin Wire on 10 May 2022 reported that on 9 May “More than 300,000 people have already turned out for pre-polling on just the first day of early voting.


The number of Northern Rivers enrolled voters who were recorded as having pre-polled on 9 May was 1,581 in the Page electorate and 3,305 in Richmond electorate.


At a federal general election all 151 of the House of Representatives seats and those Senate seats where the set term of a senator has finished (which is usually around half the Senate total of 74 seats) are contested.


A breakdown of the candidates standing for election on 21 May 2022 show that 1,203 candidates are vying for seats in the House of Representatives and 421 for seats in the Senate. These figures represent an increase of 147 House of Representatives candidates since the 2019 federal general election and a decrease of 37 Senate candidates since that same 2019 election.


A total of 10 candidates are listed on the House of Representatives ballot paper for the Page electorate and another 10 candidates on the House of Representatives ballot paper for the Richmond electorate. This represents an increase of 3 candidates on the Page ballot paper and an increase of two on the Richmond ballot paper since the 2019 federal election.


The New South Wales Senate ballot paper contains the names of 75 candidates across 24 political designations.


In 2022 can the Northern Rivers meet or pass its 2019 voter participation numbers?


At the 2019 federal general election 91.9% of all Australian enrolled voters cast a vote at that election. 


In 2019 in the Page electorate 113,548 people voted in the federal election, with 95.25% of these votes recorded as formal & 4.45% informal. Page voter participation was 92.5% of all enrolled voters.

In the same year in the Richmond electorate 108,381 people voted in the federal election, with 92.56% of all votes recorded as formal & 7.44% informal. Richmond voter participation was 90.8% of all enrolled voters.


PRINCIPAL SOURCES


https://aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/

https://aec.gov.au/election/downloads.htm

https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm

https://aec.gov.au/media/files/aec-federal-election-reporting-guide-digital.pdf

https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-138.htm

https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-145.htm


Tuesday, 10 May 2022

It's far too early to count Australia's 2022 federal election chickens


Since 13 February 2022 there have been 11 voter intention surveys published by the four major political survey companiesNewspoll, Ipsos, Resolve and Morgan Research.


None of these 11 surveys predicts that the Morrison Government will get re-elected in 2022.


However, investing in the idea that surveys indicate exactly what est.17,228,900 voters will decide as their pencils hover over ballot papers is dangerous for all concerned.


Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Every voter needs to make a well considered choice, because every voter has to live with the consequences of their vote.


On Saturday 18 May 2019 the national electorate went to polling booths all around Australia to elect a federal government.


The Australian, 8 May 2022
Click on image to enlarge













The day before “The Australian” newspaper published a Newspoll voter intention survey result which indicated that there was a 3 percentage point difference between Labor and the Coalition which – given the consistent poll results since 4 February 2018 favouring Labor – was considered by many political pundits to firm up the likelihood that Labor would form government the next day.


That didn’t happen. The Liberal-Nationals Coalition formed government with 77 out of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving the Labor Party Party holding 68 seats, Independents 3 and The Greens, Centre Alliance & Katter’s Australia Party all holding one seat each.


Right now the nation is just 11 days out from the 21 May 2022 federal election and, since 27 June 2021 consecutive Newspolls have developed a wide gap between Labor and the Coalition similar to the gaps that existed on Newspoll graphs in the lead up to the 2019 election.


Thirteen days out from the 2022 federal election there was an 8 percentage point difference in Labor’s favour in the Newspoll survey published last Sunday.


Expect the difference to tighten as election day gets closer.


Expect the predominately right-wing mainstream media (with a few shining exceptions) to take leave of its collective senses over the next 11 days as it fights to keep Scott Morrison in government.