Australian Federal Election 2022: so who are NSW Northern Rivers voters and how do we compare with the other 16.98 million enrolled voters?

An est. 17,793,140 Australian citizens are eligible to vote at the federal election on 21 May 2022 and at least 96.8% (17.22 million) of these citizens are on the current Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) national electoral roll.

Est. 5.44 million of these enrolled voters live in New South Wales and 4.41% of the state's voters hail from the Northern Rivers region of the state.

NSW Northern River region

from Clarence Valley in the south to Tweed Heads on the NSW-Qld border

IMAGE: Google Earth snapshot 

In the two Northern Rivers federal electorates, Page has 122,915 enrolled voters and Richmond has 118,652. In both electorates there are more female than male voters – with est. 51.4% of all voters being female in Page and est. 51.1% being female in Richmond.

There are now 5,472,469 young voters between 18 to 24 years on the national electoral roll.

An est. 8,796 of these younger voters are in the Page electorate and another est. 7,627 younger voters are in the Richmond electorate. In this age group in both electorates there are also more females than males.

Based on AEC age groupings, nationally the largest voting bloc is people 70 years of age and older at 2,948,739 people.

The largest voting bloc in the Page electorate in 2022 is people 70 years of age and older at 27,834 individuals, with 51.1% being female. When it comes to the Richmond electorate in 2022, based on age groupings the largest voting bloc is also people aged 70 years of age and older at 28,396 individuals with 53.7% being female.

By 9 May 2022 there had been almost 2 million postal vote applications received and processed by the Australian Electoral Commission. That’s in addition to those already permanently registered as General Postal Voters.

As of 9 May a total of 1,648 of these new postal vote applications were made by people living in the Page electorate and 1,405 new applications were made by people residing in the Richmond electorate. By 10 May application numbers had risen to 2,117 and 2,359 respectively, but as yet no completed postal ballots have been listed by the AEC as "returned".

An AAP Bulletin Wire on 10 May 2022 reported that on 9 May “More than 300,000 people have already turned out for pre-polling on just the first day of early voting”.

The number of Northern Rivers enrolled voters who were recorded as having pre-polled on 9 May was 1,581 in the Page electorate and 3,305 in Richmond electorate.

At a federal general election all 151 of the House of Representatives seats and those Senate seats where the set term of a senator has finished (which is usually around half the Senate total of 74 seats) are contested.

A breakdown of the candidates standing for election on 21 May 2022 show that 1,203 candidates are vying for seats in the House of Representatives and 421 for seats in the Senate. These figures represent an increase of 147 House of Representatives candidates since the 2019 federal general election and a decrease of 37 Senate candidates since that same 2019 election.

A total of 10 candidates are listed on the House of Representatives ballot paper for the Page electorate and another 10 candidates on the House of Representatives ballot paper for the Richmond electorate. This represents an increase of 3 candidates on the Page ballot paper and an increase of two on the Richmond ballot paper since the 2019 federal election.

The New South Wales Senate ballot paper contains the names of 75 candidates across 24 political designations.

In 2022 can the Northern Rivers meet or pass its 2019 voter participation numbers?

At the 2019 federal general election 91.9% of all Australian enrolled voters cast a vote at that election. 

In 2019 in the Page electorate 113,548 people voted in the federal election, with 95.25% of these votes recorded as formal & 4.45% informal. Page voter participation was 92.5% of all enrolled voters.

In the same year in the Richmond electorate 108,381 people voted in the federal election, with 92.56% of all votes recorded as formal & 7.44% informal. Richmond voter participation was 90.8% of all enrolled voters.

PRINCIPAL SOURCES

https://aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/

https://aec.gov.au/election/downloads.htm

https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm

https://aec.gov.au/media/files/aec-federal-election-reporting-guide-digital.pdf

https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-138.htm

https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-145.htm

Full list candidates standing in Page and Richmond (NSW) electorates at the 21 May 2022 federal election & their positions on ballot papers

PAGE Electorate - Candidates Standing & Ballot Paper Position

https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm

RICHMOND electorate - Candidates Standing & Ballot Paper Position 

Full list of NSW candidates standing for the Senate can be found at https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm - click "all candidates" & follow prompts.

Australian Federal Election 2022: Page & Richmond Electorates State of Play mid-April

The Canberra Times, 16 April 2022:

Mr Joyce's re-election proclamation has been to "make Australia as strong as possible as quickly as possible" in the face of global uncertainty by boosting exports in sectors like mining and minerals.

"Our number one priority is the security of our nation which must be underpinned by our capacity to pay for it," Mr Joyce said as he turned the sod on a central Queensland coal mine.

"And we pay for it with iron ore, we pay for it with coal, we pay for it with gas, we pay for it with live cattle, live sheep, irrigated cotton, irrigated wheat.

"We're going to have an epiphany about how we earn money because if we don't earn money we're poor and if we're poor, we're weak."…...

The Nationals are sandbagging some otherwise safe seats in Queensland and NSW after a series of natural disasters turned public sentiment against the federal government.

Kevin Hogan, whose northern NSW electorate of Page encompasses Lismore - the region worst hit by recent flooding - would normally consider his seat safe for the Nats on a 9.5 per cent margin.

But with NSW state Liberal MP Catherine Cusack accusing the Prime Minister of politicising the devastating floods, publicly stating she wouldn't vote for him, and anger bubbling at delayed government responses, some in Labor believe the seat could prove to be their dark horse.

The adjacent seat of Cowper held by Nationals MP Pat Conaghan on a slimmer 6.8 per cent margin, will also need reinforcements…..

What this news article did not mention was the fact that Kevin Hogan quickly became notorious across the entire NSW Northern Rivers last month when he rather aggressively stated words to the effect that the debate is over on the use of engineered structures on north-eastern coastal rivers and that government will make those decisions not communities.

Tweed Daily News, 14 April 2022:

What area does Richmond cover?

Richmond covers an area from the New South Wales/Queensland border in the north to Ballina and Pimlico in the south.

The main towns include Ballina, Bangalow, Brunswick Heads, Burringbar, Byron Bay, Hastings Point, Kingscliff, Lennox Head, Mullumbimby, Murwillumbah, Suffolk Park, and Tweed Heads.

Overtime the seat has been a traditionally conservative held by the nationals party five times, three of which were in the Anthony family – Hubert Lawrence Anthony (1937 – 1957), former deputy prime minister Doug Anthony (1957 – 1984) and most recently Larry Anthony (1996 – 2004).

The Labor Party has held the seat twice, by Neville Newell between 1990 – 1996 and most recently Justine Elliot since 2004.

Ms Elliot retained the seat with a 4.1 per cent margin in the 2019 election.

Who are the candidates?

Justine Elliot, Labor

The current member for Richmond Justine Elliott will be running again this election.

Ms Elliot said this election Labor’s plans were for cheaper power bills, cheaper childcare and more secure, well-paid jobs.

“From our $10 billion plan to ease the housing crisis, to our comprehensive plan to tackle climate change and create over 600,000 jobs, and the creation of a federal anti-corruption commission – Labor is on your side,” Ms Elliot said.

“Labor will create a better life by securing Medicare and making it easier to go and see the doctor and we’ll make childcare more affordable and fix the aged care crisis.

“We will invest in secure local jobs – investing in skills and training including Fee-Free TAFE in areas of skill shortage. We’ll bring manufacturing home.”

She said Labor will also scrap the cashless debit cards.

“As your local MP, I’m proud to have delivered more than $2 billion for local jobs, schools, health, roads and community resources. I am always on your side and committed to working with everyone to build a better North Coast,” she said.

Ms. Elliot spoke up swiftly and loudly, along with her state political counterparts Catherine Cusack Liberal MLC and Janelle Saffin Labor MLA, objecting to Prime Minister Morrison's attempt to use enhanced direct relief funding for flood victims as a form of 'pork barrelling' aimed at benefiting only the Nationals-held Page electorate.

Also contesting the seat at the 21 May election will be:

Kimberley Hone, National Party. A Pentecostal ‘preacher’ with a Family First & Australian Christian Lobby background, who appears determined to bring the Kingdom of God into federal politics - “the ultimate goal for me, just like my husband and I have done with business, I want to bring God’s kingdom to the political arena and I want God’s kingdom to penetrate the political mountain”. A local resident of around 3 ½ years standing;

Mandy Nolan, The Greens. A performer, comedian, MC, writer, author, artist, teacher, ambassador and activist, who has lived in the Richmond electorate for more than 30 years and, as a longtime resident has an understanding of local and regional issues;

Gary Biggs, Liberal Democrats. A big fan of ‘freedoms’ apparently discovered during the COVID-19 pandemic and it seems of little else. “The average punter needs the chance to vote for a real freedom party, a party with liberty at its very core. Not a party who discovered “more freedom” just in time for an election.”;

Robert Marks, United Australia Party. Has been with millionaire mining magnate Clive Palmer's party for nine years and unsuccessfully run in six elections, five as a party candidate; and

Monica Shepherd, Informed Medical Opinions Party. A self-described “clinical naturopath” with apparently no formal medical qualifications, who appears committed more to an across the board anti-vaccination & anti-fluoride agenda than than to existing freedom of choice.

First rule for any 2022 federal election candidate - don't mislead voters before the election campaign has even begun

This was how National Party candidate for the federal seat of Richmond, Kimberly Hone, presented herself to the media and electorate on 24 March 2022 in Echo online:

Nationals Party

Nationals candidate, Kimberly Hone.

On the Nationals Party ticket is Kingscliff resident Kimberly Hone, who has no online presence, apart from Facebook.

Her earliest video post is from November 2, 2021.

She says on a video that, with her husband, she has been running a fitness coaching practice for 12 years.

‘I stand for families and small businesses’, she says in another video. Ms Hone replaces Tweed Heads’ Hungry Jacks owner, Matthew Fraser, who previously ran multiple times on the Nationals Party ticket.

Intrigued by the very specific claim presumably made by Ms. Hone or the National Party on her behalf - that she only had one social media presence, a Facebook account, with her earliest video post being from November 2021 - I decided to look.

First thing I noticed is that she has an active Instagram account with videos dating back to at least 2019. On this account in October 2021 she announced her official candidature at the next federal election.

Retrieved 27 March 2022

A second look showed she still had one, possibly two, accessible Twitter accounts.

Retrieved 27 March 2022

https://twitter.com/kimberlyhone

Retrieved 27 March 2022

https://mobile.twitter.com/kimberly_hone

Both Twitter accounts contain political comment.

In addition to these social media accounts, the Nationals candidate for Richmond also has an old YouTube video account in her name with one video going back to 2019.

Retrieved 27 March 2022

Then I looked for news reports about the candidate and this article immediately popped up, which might go some way to explaining her reluctance to admit the range of her social media accounts.

Gold Coast Bulletin online, 25 March 2021:

Richmond resident Kimberly Hone is the fresh face on the Nationals ticket in the race to beat Labor MP Justine Elliot who has held the seat since 2004.

Her political rivals have also labelled her a “risk to the community” over her support for radical alternatives to fight Covid including Ivermectin.

The deworming medicine for horses has been touted as a Covid “wonder drug” by ex-US President Donald Trump and billionaire Clive Palmer.

Ms Hone wrote, “China treats their citizens with intravenous Vitamin C” in a thread in which she also endorsed Ivermectin.

In a series of tweets, since deleted, Ms Hone tweeted with links:

* “One way to avoid domestic violence is to marry well. Abusers are exceptional at manipulating …”

* “Imagine if your child’s school secretly started feeding your child transgender hormone tablets.”

* “Ten religious reasons against climate change.”

* “Global thackery: Earth has not warmed for the past 19 years – new study.”

* “Debunked: Hurricanes harvey and Irma were NOT (sic) caused by climate change.”

Video of Ms Hone speaking at a community church in October 2021 also shows her encouraging supporters’ anti-vaccination views.

At one point she states she is “so glad” audience members “no longer trust medical science”.

Richmond MP Justine Elliot has since slammed Ms Hone for her comments, labelling them “repulsive”, “dangerous” and “deeply offensive”.

“Concerned locals alerted me about these extreme views,” she said.

“It’s about transparency. (Her comments) are all extreme and quite disturbing, particularly about domestic violence.

“Victims are never to blame for domestic violence. I was personally offended when those were brought to my attention.

“This is appalling.”

“Voters deserve to know who she is.”

Ms Hone said making her past statements public was “bullying behaviour” and she refused to be “dragged down to a schoolyard cat fight”……

Ms. Hone made a rookie’s mistake when she apparently attempted to direct people towards just one social media source of information about her, without first sometime earlier either closing those Twitter accounts or removing them from public view.

As for that innocuous Instagram account, she would be better off making that a locked account for family & friends until the federal election is over and she has returned to private life once more.

It is hard to see how it could be otherwise for this novice candidate. Because she failed to take the very first fence in the political steeple chase – she was not open and transparent.

As for that risible "bullying" claim.......

BACKGROUND

 

In October 2021 Ms. Hone clearly stated that “the ultimate goal for me, just like my husband and I have done with business, I want to bring God’s kingdom to the political arena and I want God’s kingdom to penetrate the political mountain”. It appears that in this video (commencing at 29:48) she is asserting that all legislation must reflect a Christian worldview and values. 

Ms. Hone has a "business slash ministry" with her husband, Kingdom Business. This appears to be a business networking vehicle for Christian business owners.

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and Newspoll results tighten

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to just under 34 months.

53rd Newpoll results – published 29 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (unchanged).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 51 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 49 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -12 points (up 2 points).

If a federal election had been held on 29 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 77 seats (down 5 seats since 16 April poll ) to the Coalition's 68 seats (up 5 seats since 16 April poll) in the House of Representatives.

According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.

In other words the status quo is predicted to remain for another three years – the Nationals having held Page since 2013 and Cowper since 2001. Labor has held Richmond since 2004.

Candidates standing in Richmond electorate at the 18 May 2019 federal election

Echo NetDaily, 26 April 2019:

There are eight candidates for the federal electorate of Richmond, which covers the Byron, Ballina and Tweed shires.

The seat has been held since 2004 by Labor’s Justine Elliot, and like the state seat of Ballina (Byron and Ballina Shires), the strong Byron Green vote has helped Labor’s Elliot maintain power. 

ABC election guru Antony Green describes the electorate of Richmond: “The Green victory in the state seat of Ballina was overwhelmingly owing to Green support in Byron Shire, where rich retirees and alternative lifestylers have flooded into a former rural shire. The Nationals still won Ballina itself, while Green support in the state seat of Tweed, making up the northern half of Richmond, was only 13.3 per cent. A Green victory in Richmond probably requires the Greens to pass Labor with then hope of then defeating the National Party on preferences. Given the increasing urbanisation of Richmond, it may be the Liberal Party will eventually return to contesting Richmond, further complicating the contest”.

Candidates in Ballot Paper Order

1. Ronald McDonald, Sustainable Australia 

2. Hamish Mitchell, United Australia Party

3. Morgan Cox, Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) 

4. Justine Elliot, Labor

5. Ray Karam, Independent

6. Tom Barnett, Involuntary Medication Objectors (Vaccination/Fluoride) 

7. Matthew Fraser, The Nationals

8. Michael Lyon, The Greens

Early voting starts on Monday 29 April 2019 at 8.30am. 

Early voting centres for the Ricmond & Tweed valleys and elsewhere can be found at:
https://www.aec.gov.au/election/voting.htm#voting

Under Turnbull Government's new plan "38 out of 44 marine parks will be open to trawling, gillnetting and longlining, 33 will be open to mining, and 42 exposed to the construction of pipelines"

www.parksaustralia.gov.au

Canberra Times, 17 September 2017:

In the corridors of Parliament House that day, as I met MPs of every stripe, I felt a great sense of promise, even pride. And it seemed for a while such hope was not misplaced. In 2012, after an exhaustive scientific process and wide community consultation, Tony Burke declared a system of marine national parks, one of the biggest and best in the world, the most significant conservation gain in Australian history.

That took courage. Because it put science before politics, prudence ahead of expediency. And it was popular. But as soon as he came to power in 2013 Tony Abbott announced an immediate moratorium on these parks and instigated a review. The purpose was purely political. To delay implementation, corrode consensus and deny the science. A move straight out of the culture warrior's playbook.

After decades of forward-thinking leaders, the nation had fallen into the hands of a man whose loyalties were only to the past. It was a low moment. But Abbott's reign was as brief as it was fruitless. It was a relief to see him replaced in 2015 by a man who'd actually done things, who believed in the future. Malcolm Turnbull did not scorn science. He seemed to understand the value and fragility of our natural estate. So there was new hope the marine parks review would now be expedited and redirected towards real conservation outcomes. With coral reefs bleaching and miners pressing for even more coal ports and seabed to drill, the need for protection had only grown more urgent.

Well, that moment of promise is long gone. Turnbull's period in office has basically been a hostage drama. The bargain he made with powerbrokers rendered him captive to the party's most illiberal wing, and if his performance on climate, energy and marriage equality aren't evidence enough, last month's announcement that marine parks would be slashed beyond all recognition puts it beyond dispute.

The agents of inertia control his government. And what's worse he's looking like a hostage who's begun to identify with his captors. How else to explain his radical lurch backwards on parks? The draft management plans recently released for consultation by Josh Frydenberg don't just signify the gutting of the national system, they represent the largest removal of protection for Australian wildlife in our history. What the government is proposing is a nihilistic act of vandalism. Forty  million hectares of sanctuary will be ripped from the estate. That's like revoking every second national park on land. Under its new plan, 38 out of 44 marine parks will be open to trawling, gillnetting and longlining, 33 will be open to mining, and 42 exposed to the construction of pipelines. In total defiance of the scientific advice upon which the original system was designed, 16 marine parks will now have no sanctuary zones at all.

The science shows that partial or low-level protection simply doesn't work. What the government is putting forward will radically diminish protection of habitat. It will also undermine sustainable regional economic development. What began as a quest for excellence based on the best possible science is now so miserably degraded it's turned the greatest step forward in marine conservation into a regime that doesn't even aspire to be second-rate.

Draft management plans for Australian marine parks/reserves:

Coral Sea Commonwealth Marine Reserve draft management plan

                                                                         

North Commonwealth Marine Reserves draft management plan

North-west Commonwealth Marine Reserves draft management plan

Temperate East Commonwealth Marine Reserves management plan

South-west Commonwealth Marine Reserves draft management plan

As one South Australian voter put it after reading about the Turnbull Government's intentions; FFS ! These guys are proof that there are no time machines. Otherwise someone from the future would come back and mulch the pr*cks. (quote supplied)

Voters in NSW North Coast electorates should be aware that:

* Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan supported this review and to date has never voted against his party’s position in the House of Representatives. Therefore it is highly likely that he will vote for any government bill which will reduce marine park and marine reserve protections.

*Nationals MP for Cowper Luke Hartsuyker supported this review and to date has never voted against his party’s position in the House of Representatives. Therefore it is highly likely that he will vote for any government bill which will reduce marine park and marine reserve protections.

* Labor MP for Richmond Justine Elliot does not support a reduction in marine parks and marine reserve protections.

Brief background

The Sydney Morning Herald, 21 July 2017:

The Turnbull government has released draft management plans for the nation's marine parks that amount to an "unprecedented roll-back" of protections, a coalition of 25 environmental groups say.

The long-awaited draft plans were released on Friday and propose changes to the 3.3 million square kilometres of Australia's protected offshore regions expanded in 2012 by the Gillard government.

The area of marine parks open to fishing would jump to 80 per cent from 64 per cent now, if the changes were to pass through parliament, WWF-Australia said.

"This is a huge step backwards for marine protection," Richard Leck, WWF's head of oceans, said. "Australia used to be seen as a global leader in marine conservation. That will no longer be the case if these proposals are implemented."

Other proposed changes would strip Shark and Vema reefs of  marine national park status, while Osprey reef - one of the world's premier dive sites - has lost more than half its protection, Tony Burke, Labor's environment spokesman said.

"Five years ago, Labor make the second largest conservation decision in history. Today the Turnbull Government announced the largest undoing of conservation ever," Mr Burke said….

Of particular concern to the green groups is the Coral Sea Marine Park, where a substantial area previously given the maximum protection had been reduced……

Ms Grady said the government had chosen to ignore the science contained in independent reviews that backed the original zones.

"All Australians will be justifiably distressed to know that science evidence supporting an increase in protections for marine life has been thrown out the window," Darren Kindleysides, director of the Australian Marine Conservation Society, said.

If you're still buffering blame Malcolm!

https://www.akamai.com/uk/en/our-thinking/state-of-the-internet-report/state-of-the-internet-connectivity-visualization.jsp

First as Minister for Environment and Water Resources in the Howard Government Malcolm Bligh Turnbull tried to steal water from the Clarence River catchment area, then as Minister for Communications in the Abbott Government he managed to destroy the National Broadband Network leaving regional Australia struggling with third world Internet connections.

What will he do next as Prime Minister?