With a substantial majority in the House of Representatives, a solid position in the Senate and four years in which to progress Labor's long held commitment to UN treaties & conventions as well as international law & rules based order, it is being put on notice concerning the national electorate's justifiable expectations - Part Two

 

President Donald J. Trump may be well past his physical & cognitive prime, with a narcissistic personality wrapped within an incoherent 'master race' world view which is rapidly coalescing into a vicious & violent form of fascism, but as yet neither the US Congress nor the American people will remove him from office.

Which leaves America's historical allies and long-time trading partners at the mercy of the delusional reasoning behind Trump's 'America First: Making America Rich & All Powerful' decision making and the never-ending White House churn to date of presidential executive orders (63), memoranda (16), proclamations (258), assorted remarks (35), and accompanying fact sheets (142).

On Monday 12 May 2025, Trump announced representatives of the Trump Administration had met with representatives of the People's Republic of China in Switzerland and the US had agreed to a 90 day pause in import tariffs created since 2 April 2025 — with the US lowering its tariffs on Chinese goods by 115 percentage points for duration of the pause and China agreeing to lower its retaliatory tariffs on American goods by 115 percentage points for the duration.

Leaving Trump and his inner circle trying to spin the fact that as part of this agreement he has insisted on imposing a crippling 30 per cent import tax on America's own domestic industry, business & household consumers of Chinese produce & products until around mid- August 2025.

If ever there was an urgent need for a 'Oh quick, look at that shiny thing over there!' moment it was on that Monday and Trump promptly trotted it out in a bizarre executive order titled Delivering Most-Favored-Nation Prescription Drug Pricing to American Patients, May 12, 2025 and an equally bizarre fact sheet Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Announces Actions to Put American Patients First by Lowering Drug Prices and Stopping Foreign Free-riding on American Pharmaceutical Innovation, May 12, 2025.

What these two documents indicate is that Trump has turned his disgruntled gaze towards "foreign health systems [who] get a free ride" with US citizens "effectively subsidizing socialism aboard [sic]".

That 12 May Executive Order reads in part:

Sec. 3. Addressing Foreign Nations Freeloading on American-Financed Innovation.

The Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative shall take all necessary and appropriate action to ensure foreign countries are not engaged in any act, policy, or practice that may be unreasonable or discriminatory or that may impair United States national security and that has the effect of forcing American patients to pay for a disproportionate amount of global pharmaceutical research and development, including by suppressing the price of pharmaceutical products below fair market value in foreign countries.

While Sec 5 ends with:

(vi) the heads of agencies shall take all action available, in coordination with the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy, to address global freeloading and price discrimination against American patients.

According to this same executive order, on or about 10 June Trump's thinly disguised threats — against US multinational pharmaceutical corporations who don't immediately respond by lowering their domestic pricing to a new level set by the Trump Administration — will morph into further "aggressive action" by the US federal government.

It seems that Donald Trump may intend to deflect attention from the failure of his economic war on China, by placing those sovereign nations with universal public health care and welfare safety net systems on a MAGA enemies list and, pursue yet another targeted economic war — this time against countries that are definitely not super powers.

With over 180 other countries due to come out of the original 90 day tariff pause on or about 7 July, it is possible that Australia, New Zealand, Canada, United Kingdom, Ireland & Denmark in particular will find themselves among countries publicly labelled by Trump as pharmaceutical "freeloaders" with additional tariffs arbitrarily imposed.

 

At the beginning of April Trump's ability with the stroke of a presidential black sharpie or a late night social media post to create an over 180 nation-strong rolling global trade disruption & trigger widespread financial market uncertainty seems to have produced in him a personally gratifying inner glow. He will likely want to revisit that sensation.

The Albanese Labor Government now enjoys a record majority in the House of Representatives, in no small measure because the Prime Minister assured the Australian people that he would not allow Trump to dictate to the federal government on matters concerning this nation's own national security, economic stability, biosecurity protections or its universal health care and welfare safety net provisions.

 

"It's not surprising that there is a push and some opposition to the PBS but let me be very clear and explicit — the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) is not for sale," Albanese said during a speech on Thursday, describing the program as a "core part of who we are as Australians".

"It is a monument to the fairness at the heart of Australian life and we don't negotiate our values."

[SBS News online, 19-20 March 2025]

 

Trump's appetite for the humiliating domination of others is insatiable and seemingly only encouraged by any attempt to placate or negotiate with him as a first response to his political & economic aggression — he will keep insisting on further access & concessions while repeatedly taking economic bites out of any country which he considers weak.

The Albanese Government resisted Trump's expectations that Australia — à la former Coalition Prime Minister Morrison — would publicly support his economic war on China and that won't sit well with a US Administration which sees Australia as nothing more than a convenient geopolitical pawn it can move at will.

As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese threw his backing behind Indonesia’s bid to join the trans-Pacific free trade pact to help counter the global chaos created by US President Donald Trump’s trade war, Farrell also confirmed the government was not rushing to seek relief from US tariffs from the White House.

“China is our largest trading partner. Chinese trade is almost 10 times more valuable to Australia,” Farrell said in an interview with The Australian Financial Review to mark his reappointment to the trade portfolio after the election. “We don’t want to do less business with China, we want to do more business with China.

“We’ll make decisions about how we continue to engage with China based on our national interests and not on what the Americans may or may not want.” 

[Australian Minister for Trade & Tourism Sen. Don Farrell quoted in Australian Financial Review, 15 May 2025] 

It appears that the best way forward for any national government — especially the Australian Government — is to repeatedly say no to Trump, lodge a formal complaint against the US with the World Trade Organisation and, in Australia's case, also consider giving notice that it is withdrawing from the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) which Trump has already trashed since his inauguration and, inform the US Government that Australia will be undertaking a formal review of every and all agreements which allow US defence forces a full-time or periodic presence on Australian territory or in its coastal waters as it is proving itself to be an unreliable ally and regional partner.

****

What is the lesson Australia can draw from the first shots fired in the Dumbest Trade War in U.S. History?

 

On the matter of the U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA)

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) situated in The Executive Office Of The President.

The full text of the Agreement is available here and the Advisory Committee Reports are available here. The latest information regarding significant trade barriers can be found in the 2021 National Trade Estimate Report, see here.

Australia Trade Summary

U.S. goods and services trade with Australia totaled an estimated $77.1 billion in 2022 (latest data available). Exports were $52.1 billion; imports were $25.0 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade surplus with Australia was $27.1 billion in 2022.

U.S. goods exports to Australia in 2023 were $33.7 billion, up 10.2 percent ($3.1 billion) from 2022 and up 29 percent from 2013. U.S. goods imports from Australia totaled $16.0 billion in 2023, down 1.3 percent ($216 million) from 2022, but up 72 percent from 2013. U.S. exports to Australia account for 1.6 percent of overall U.S. exports in 2023. The U.S. goods trade surplus with Australia was $17.7 billion in 2023, a 23.2 percent increase ($3.3 billion) over 2022.

U.S. exports of services to Australia were an estimated $21.6 billion in 2022, 30.6 percent ($5.1 billion) more than 2021, and 5 percent greater than 2012 levels. U.S. imports of services from Australia were an estimated $8.8 billion in 2022, 41.4 percent ($2.6 billion) more than 2021, and 20 percent greater than 2012 levels. Leading services exports from the U.S. to Australia were in the financial services, travel, and telecommunications, computer, and information services sectors. The United States has a services trade surplus of an estimated $12.7 billion with Australia in 2022, up 24.1 percent from 2021.

U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Australia (stock) was $173.7 billion in 2022, a 1.6 percent decrease from 2021. U.S. direct investment in Australia is led by nonbank holding companies, mining, and manufacturing.

According to OEC.World:

In October 2024, United States exported $2.49B and imported $1.59B from Australia, resulting in a positive trade balance of $901M. Between October 2023 and October 2024 the exports of United States have decreased by $-432M (-14.8%) from $2.93B to $2.49B, while imports increased by $195M (13.9%) from $1.4B to $1.59B.

On the fifth day of the US 47th Presidency the USTR issued the following statement:

USTR Announces Review of Unfair Foreign Trade Practices

January 24, 2025

WASHINGTON-- The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative announced today that it will review foreign trade practices to account for those practices which may be unfair to the United States, including those practices that may be unreasonable or discriminatory and that may burden or restrict United States commerce.

This review is conducted pursuant to Sections 2(c) and 3(c) of the Presidential Memorandum "America First Trade Policy" signed on January 20, 2025.

By 1 February 2025, the 12th day of this current presidency, at least the first three of what appears to be cursory reviews of foreign trade practices (allegedly enabled by US International Emergency Economic Powers Act) had been completed and Canada, Mexico and China had received notice of an increase in tariffs across the board on their goods & services entering American territorial boundaries.

NOTE: Previous to this the vast majority of U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico could enter the U.S. duty-free, thanks to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

From the start date of this new tariff regime on 4 February 2024, these Canadian, Mexican and Chinese goods & services have an estimated combined value at the end of the first 12 months of more than US$1 trillion.

As the actual dollar cost of these tariffs are born predominately by US importers of Canadian, Mexican and Chinese goods/services and businesses are not prohibited from passing 100% of tariff-induced costs onto the consumer, although the impact of these tariffs will be felt in all four national economies it has been calculated that with the initial retaliatory counter tariffs in place US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will potentially halve in 2025, subsequently significantly impeding America's economic growth.

Now that he has started a trade war with his two largest free trade partners, it appears that Trump wants to temporarily de-escalate tensions and has suspended imposing the new tariffs on Mexico for a month and appears to have spoken with the Canadian prime minister with unspecified results.

There are perhaps lessons here for Australia when Trump announces increased tariffs on Australian exports to the United States.

Hopefully the lesson learnt is that Australia should match any new tariff rates percentage point for percentage point across the board and insist there is no bargaining this position away - either by agreeing to an offer of a smaller increase in US tariffs, by the US excepting certain goods & services from these tariffs or by entering into new or altered agreements on any matter in which Australia and the United States can be thought to have a mutual interest as a condition of an easing or removal of tariffs.  

Repeatedly stating with strong emphasis that under the 2005 Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) the US already shows a trade surplus with Australia that it knows it can bank - and it has been certain of that trade surplus almost without exception for the last 123 years since 1901 when the newly established Commonwealth of Australia was exporting A$6.9 million (7.0% of all exports) to the US and was importing from the US A$11.7 million (13.8% of all imports) in return.

US president-elect Donald J Trump announces the following based on "Project 2025: presidential transition project" hard right political playbook

On 8 November 2024 US president-elect and convicted fraudster, 78 year-old Donald John Trump made the following announcement ushering in an authoritarian state, headed by a president intent on revenge against those he perceives as his enemies and retribution for a long list of delusional grievances.

 

Donald Trump has just released his plan to "demolish the deep state."

Unglued Project 2025 stuff.

Buckle up, folks. pic.twitter.com/AniimjUcbG

— Art Candee 🍿🥤 (@ArtCandee) November 8, 2024

 The Heritage Foundation and the Project 2025 Advisory Board - along with Donald Trump himself - have repeatedly denied any association with each other. Unfortunately these denials have proved to be untruths.

Project 2025 922-page 180-Day Playbook at

https://www.project2025.org/playbook/ 

and

https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf   

Australia's initial reaction to Trump's election win is a mixture of caution and dread....

Financial Review, 7 November 2024:

President-elect Donald Trump will likely be a unilateralist in his dealings with Australia and the rest of the world, neither a pre-World War Two isolationist nor the post-war global policeman.

Trump’s highly transactional view of life means he will take America in and out of world affairs as and when it suits his mercurial personality. He will approach each international relationship through the prism of what is in it for him. For Trump, the geopolitical is personal.....

The immediate risk for Australia is Trump’s flagship policy of tariffs on imports, which threaten a 60 per cent charge on Chinese goods and up to 20 per cent on all others. Robert Lighthizer, his hawkish former trade representative who is tipped to return to the new administration, doesn’t believe that free trade works. He argues that America did not lose its microchip industry because of a lack of comparative advantage, but because of the subsidies and industry policies of other countries. He also thinks it has been China’s choice not to open more of its domestic market to better balance its trade with the US.

Australia is a small open economy highly exposed to the ripple effects of an all-out US-China trade war. ANU economist Warwick McKibbin says that because China takes a massive 47 per cent of Australia’s goods exports, the collateral damage to Australia from a Sino-US tariff fight could mean a hit on the economy of 0.3 per cent of GDP a year by 2035. In America, the proposed tariffs would rekindle inflation, forcing up interest rates and the cost of funding immense US debts. That will keep upward pressure on global interest rates too, making it harder for the Reserve Bank to cut rates here. On the other hand, China may have kept fiscal stimulus plans in reserve for a Trump trade clash, from which Australia would gain.

Australia will watch closely how Trump treats wider US alliances in the Pacific.

The mutual harm of a trade war might pave the way to negotiating instead. Trump might be content to use the threat of tariffs to push for concessions from trade partners. And if tariffs were to be implemented, the heavy cost to US consumers and the damage to US exporters hit by retaliatory tariffs could see Congress itself water them down to more selective targeting. Australia could blunt some of the impact of any tariff changes by successfully negotiating reductions as it did for steel and aluminium exports during the first Trump administration.

Australia will watch closely how Trump treats wider US alliances in the Pacific, the so-called “lattice work” of partnerships built up by the Biden administration connecting Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India, and Australia.

Trump has a much more insular vision of American power, viewing long-term commitments to international alliances as liabilities the US could do without. Yet if he leaves a strategic vacuum by quitting the region then China, Russia and others would move fast to fill it. And it would not be long before even a more self-contained Trump America began feeling the pressure of an expanding China. Trump would find that turning his back on allies was a more costly transaction than he thought.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 November 2024:

Donald Trump’s policy agenda could precipitate a global financial crisis and fuel inflation, one of the world’s leading analysts has warned, with fears Australians will suffer higher interest rates and a $36 billion hit to the domestic economy.

As the Reserve Bank conceded the incoming US president’s debt-fuelled policies would put upward pressure on global interest rates, former bank board member Warwick McKibbin likened the impact of Trump’s plans on Australia to being in the middle of a line of fireworks as they exploded on New Year’s Eve.

Trump’s plans also pose enormous political problems for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Liberal leader Peter Dutton in the lead-up to next year’s election, with analysis suggesting even winning some concessions from the Trump administration would not prevent ongoing turmoil for Australia.

Interest rates globally have climbed since Trump’s victory over US Vice President Kamala Harris, fuelled by expectations his plans for tax cuts, tariffs and the deportation of millions of undocumented workers will increase the size of American government debt.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an independent US organisation, estimates the Trump agenda would increase debt by $US7.8 trillion ($12 trillion) by 2035, taking it to an unprecedented 143 per cent of GDP.

Following Wednesday’s election results, the Australian dollar – among many currencies – lost value against the US dollar as investors bet a further lift in American government debt would require higher interest rates.

More speculative investments such as cryptocurrencies also enjoyed a surge in support. The price of bitcoin lifted from $104,500 early on Wednesday to a record high of $116,000 in the 21 hours after Trump’s re-election became clear.

Giving evidence to a Senate hearing in Canberra, Reserve Bank assistant governor Christopher Kent said Trump’s policies such as tax cuts would probably mean higher US long-term interest rates and inflation, which would flow through to the global economy.

“Because the US is such an important source of funding, and the demand by the government for borrowing is substantial, that’ll have upward effects on global interest rates,” he said.

Kent said Trump’s protectionist tariff policies would slow growth around the world.....

McKibbin said Trump’s tariff plan, which includes imposts of 10 to 20 per cent on Australian goods and 60 per cent on those from China, would directly hit the local economy while undermining global trade.

But the broader elements of Trump’s agenda, especially possible interference in the setting of American interest rates, could deliver the world another financial crisis.

“It’s like standing on Sydney Harbour Bridge when they set off the fireworks – you don’t want to be on it. There are fuses everywhere and they are just going to ignite,” McKibbin said.

Nationwide News, 7 October 2024:

The Reserve Bank claims there could be an “adverse effect” on Australia if incoming US President Donald Trump were to impose tariffs of up to 60 per cent on China.

During senate estimates on Wednesday, RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent said it was a “big concern“ whether Mr Trump follows through on the levies of Chinese-made goods, but added the full-effect was still unclear.

The levies would be higher than the 7.5 to 25 per cent implemented during his first time.

They are considered part of a broader suite of measures to boost the US economy, which also includes broad tariff increases on all imports of up to 10 per cent, cutting taxes, slashing immigration, and deregulation.

“The big concern is large tariffs on China, which may have an adverse effect on us,” he said.

“So is it right to characterise the RBA position as of this morning as unclear in terms of what the United States election outcome means for inflation outlooks.”

Speaking more broadly, he said Mr Trump’s promised tariffs would likely ”push up” the US dollar and create less demand by the US for goods produced in other markets.

“But it means less demand by the US for global goods, so that’s sort of a negative for growth elsewhere,” he said.....

UPDATE

Trump with the bit between his teeth on 15 December 2022.....

DEVELOPING: 🚨 President-Elect Donald Trump Outlines Plan to “Shatter” Censorship Regime, Restore Free Speech 🚨

President-Elect Donald Trump has released a comprehensive strategy to dismantle what he calls the "left-wing censorship regime," promising swift action on his first… pic.twitter.com/fjwJViKabz

— MiddleMaga.com (@StucknDaMid) November 8, 2024