On 8 November 2024 US president-elect and convicted fraudster, 78 year-old Donald John Trump made the following announcement ushering in an authoritarian state, headed by a president intent on revenge against those he perceives as his enemies and retribution for a long list of delusional grievances.
Donald Trump has just released his plan to "demolish the deep state."
— Art Candee 🍿🥤 (@ArtCandee) November 8, 2024
Unglued Project 2025 stuff.
Buckle up, folks. pic.twitter.com/AniimjUcbG
The Heritage Foundation and the Project 2025 Advisory Board - along with Donald Trump himself - have repeatedly denied any association with each other. Unfortunately these denials have proved to be untruths.
Project 2025 922-page 180-Day Playbook at
https://www.project2025.org/playbook/
and
https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf
Australia's initial reaction to Trump's election win is a mixture of caution and dread....
Financial Review, 7 November 2024:
President-elect Donald Trump will likely be a unilateralist in his dealings with Australia and the rest of the world, neither a pre-World War Two isolationist nor the post-war global policeman.
Trump’s highly transactional view of life means he will take America in and out of world affairs as and when it suits his mercurial personality. He will approach each international relationship through the prism of what is in it for him. For Trump, the geopolitical is personal.....
The immediate risk for Australia is Trump’s flagship policy of tariffs on imports, which threaten a 60 per cent charge on Chinese goods and up to 20 per cent on all others. Robert Lighthizer, his hawkish former trade representative who is tipped to return to the new administration, doesn’t believe that free trade works. He argues that America did not lose its microchip industry because of a lack of comparative advantage, but because of the subsidies and industry policies of other countries. He also thinks it has been China’s choice not to open more of its domestic market to better balance its trade with the US.
Australia is a small open economy highly exposed to the ripple effects of an all-out US-China trade war. ANU economist Warwick McKibbin says that because China takes a massive 47 per cent of Australia’s goods exports, the collateral damage to Australia from a Sino-US tariff fight could mean a hit on the economy of 0.3 per cent of GDP a year by 2035. In America, the proposed tariffs would rekindle inflation, forcing up interest rates and the cost of funding immense US debts. That will keep upward pressure on global interest rates too, making it harder for the Reserve Bank to cut rates here. On the other hand, China may have kept fiscal stimulus plans in reserve for a Trump trade clash, from which Australia would gain.
Australia will watch closely how Trump treats wider US alliances in the Pacific.
The mutual harm of a trade war might pave the way to negotiating instead. Trump might be content to use the threat of tariffs to push for concessions from trade partners. And if tariffs were to be implemented, the heavy cost to US consumers and the damage to US exporters hit by retaliatory tariffs could see Congress itself water them down to more selective targeting. Australia could blunt some of the impact of any tariff changes by successfully negotiating reductions as it did for steel and aluminium exports during the first Trump administration.
Australia will watch closely how Trump treats wider US alliances in the Pacific, the so-called “lattice work” of partnerships built up by the Biden administration connecting Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India, and Australia.
Trump has a much more insular vision of American power, viewing long-term commitments to international alliances as liabilities the US could do without. Yet if he leaves a strategic vacuum by quitting the region then China, Russia and others would move fast to fill it. And it would not be long before even a more self-contained Trump America began feeling the pressure of an expanding China. Trump would find that turning his back on allies was a more costly transaction than he thought.
The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 November 2024:
Donald Trump’s policy agenda could precipitate a global financial crisis and fuel inflation, one of the world’s leading analysts has warned, with fears Australians will suffer higher interest rates and a $36 billion hit to the domestic economy.
As the Reserve Bank conceded the incoming US president’s debt-fuelled policies would put upward pressure on global interest rates, former bank board member Warwick McKibbin likened the impact of Trump’s plans on Australia to being in the middle of a line of fireworks as they exploded on New Year’s Eve.
Trump’s plans also pose enormous political problems for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Liberal leader Peter Dutton in the lead-up to next year’s election, with analysis suggesting even winning some concessions from the Trump administration would not prevent ongoing turmoil for Australia.
Interest rates globally have climbed since Trump’s victory over US Vice President Kamala Harris, fuelled by expectations his plans for tax cuts, tariffs and the deportation of millions of undocumented workers will increase the size of American government debt.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an independent US organisation, estimates the Trump agenda would increase debt by $US7.8 trillion ($12 trillion) by 2035, taking it to an unprecedented 143 per cent of GDP.
Following Wednesday’s election results, the Australian dollar – among many currencies – lost value against the US dollar as investors bet a further lift in American government debt would require higher interest rates.
More speculative investments such as cryptocurrencies also enjoyed a surge in support. The price of bitcoin lifted from $104,500 early on Wednesday to a record high of $116,000 in the 21 hours after Trump’s re-election became clear.
Giving evidence to a Senate hearing in Canberra, Reserve Bank assistant governor Christopher Kent said Trump’s policies such as tax cuts would probably mean higher US long-term interest rates and inflation, which would flow through to the global economy.
“Because the US is such an important source of funding, and the demand by the government for borrowing is substantial, that’ll have upward effects on global interest rates,” he said.
Kent said Trump’s protectionist tariff policies would slow growth around the world.....
McKibbin said Trump’s tariff plan, which includes imposts of 10 to 20 per cent on Australian goods and 60 per cent on those from China, would directly hit the local economy while undermining global trade.
But the broader elements of Trump’s agenda, especially possible interference in the setting of American interest rates, could deliver the world another financial crisis.
“It’s like standing on Sydney Harbour Bridge when they set off the fireworks – you don’t want to be on it. There are fuses everywhere and they are just going to ignite,” McKibbin said.
Nationwide News, 7 October 2024:
The Reserve Bank claims there could be an “adverse effect” on Australia if incoming US President Donald Trump were to impose tariffs of up to 60 per cent on China.
During senate estimates on Wednesday, RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent said it was a “big concern“ whether Mr Trump follows through on the levies of Chinese-made goods, but added the full-effect was still unclear.
The levies would be higher than the 7.5 to 25 per cent implemented during his first time.
They are considered part of a broader suite of measures to boost the US economy, which also includes broad tariff increases on all imports of up to 10 per cent, cutting taxes, slashing immigration, and deregulation.
“The big concern is large tariffs on China, which may have an adverse effect on us,” he said.
“So is it right to characterise the RBA position as of this morning as unclear in terms of what the United States election outcome means for inflation outlooks.”
Speaking more broadly, he said Mr Trump’s promised tariffs would likely ”push up” the US dollar and create less demand by the US for goods produced in other markets.
“But it means less demand by the US for global goods, so that’s sort of a negative for growth elsewhere,” he said.....
UPDATE
Trump with the bit between his teeth on 15 December 2022.....
DEVELOPING: 🚨 President-Elect Donald Trump Outlines Plan to “Shatter” Censorship Regime, Restore Free Speech 🚨
— MiddleMaga.com (@StucknDaMid) November 8, 2024
President-Elect Donald Trump has released a comprehensive strategy to dismantle what he calls the "left-wing censorship regime," promising swift action on his first… pic.twitter.com/fjwJViKabz
