Confused about Australia's response to US President Trump's latest move creating international trade chaos - this time with low cost mailed goods? Unfortunately, it is up to the Trump Administration to sort out implementation of this policy & supply a coherent explanation to the international community, so Australia is probably in for weeks or even months of frustrating uncertainty .

On Friday 29 August 2025 US President Donald Trump's tariffs & fees applying to de minimis (low cost) goods valued up to US $800 entering American territory by way of a postal service came into effect. From that day all goods entering the country by mail became subject to a charge reflecting the July-August 2025 US trade tariffs imposed on the specific country of origin/sale of these low cost goods.

Before 29 August no tariff applied to low cost goods under an international de minimis rule within trade agreements between countries. The cut-off amount for tariff exemption varies between trade agreements.

Between 1 October 2024 and 30 June 2025 a total of 945.3 million such mailed items from all points of the globe arrived in the U.S. having been mailed by small businesses advertising directly on the Internet or operating on platforms such as Etsy or eBay, as well as sent as gifts mailed by individuals living abroad to friends or family living in America.

During those nine months the de minimis value of such goods was calculated to total US $49.8 billion, which roughly averages out at an estimated value of US$52.68 per padded envelope/package.

Like most changes to international trade with the U.S. it came via a presidential order containing more rhetorical flourish than established fact or hard detail. This one titled "SUSPENDING DUTY-FREE DE MINIMIS TREATMENT FOR ALL COUNTRIES" dated 30 June 2025.

Given President Trump appears to believe that these new charges/fees on low cost goods imported by mail into America should be borne by the seller not the importer and because of the uncertainty concerning the point along international mail routes at which new charges/fees become payable and by whom, Australia along with at least 32 other countries has suspended all package mail into the U.S., with Australia only continuing the delivery of letters, documents and gifts worth less than $150.

BACKGROUND

CNBC, 28 August 2025, excerpts:

The de minimis exemption lets U.S. consumers import $800 worth of goods free of tariffs, duties and fees. The rule makes it cheaper for consumers who buy products directly from international sellers.

The volume of these low-value shipments has swelled amid the rise of e-commerce, experts said.

In 2024, the U.S. received about 1.4 billion de minimis shipments, more than double the 637 million in 2020, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.

The average de minimis shipment was about $48 in 2024, according to CBP data....

All shipments — including beauty products from Korea, leather shoes from Italy, kitchen knives from Japan — will be subject to additional fees and taxes, such as tariffs that the Trump administration has levied on most U.S. trading partners....

“For the consumer, it can be quite a big price increase,” said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, whose research specializes in trade with China and global supply chains.

The actual price increase for consumers will depend on many factors such as country-specific tariff rates, duties the U.S. places on goods and manufacturing materials, and how businesses adjust pricing, economists said.

Here’s how the end of de minimis would impact some specific consumer goods, according to a FlavorCloudanalysis:

• $30 slippers (lightweight, premium cotton) from China would cost about $45, a 51% increase;

• $37 nutritional supplements (plant-based, performance-formulated) from Canada would cost about $60, up 60%;

• A $240 chef’s knife (with wooden handle and white steel) from Japan would cost about $298, up 24%.

Pablo Fajgelbaum, an economics professor at University of California, Los Angeles, and Amit Khandelwal, an economics professor at Yale University, write that de minimis is a “pro-poor trade policy.”...

ABCNews, 29 August 2025, excerpt:

Why Australia Post halted most US shipping

Australia Post's suspension of most shipments to the US follows the Trump administration axing the "deminimis" exemption.

Until now, parcels of goods worth less than $US800 ($1,230) were not taxed when they arrived in the US — an exemption relied upon by many Australian retailers to send items to the US duty-free.

This exemption was axed for China already in 2025, throwing retailers including Shein and Temu off guard.

Australia Post is taking the extraordinary step of immediately suspending many forms of shipping to the United States.

Originally, this exemption was not supposed to end for the rest of the world until 2027. Yet last month, the deadline was brought forward to August 29, 2025.

"Until such time as the actual decision was going to be enforced, we ran the risk of actually going early and then the US government changing its mind again, which it has done before," Mr Graham told ABC News.

"We couldn't give [our customers] concrete advice."

"It's been very difficult for our team members, but most importantly, difficult for our customers.

"Because there has been a degree of uncertainty around the whole tariff landscape for the US Is it on? Is it not on?

"Originally, we were told that the de minimis would not be removed until 2027 and then the system was brought rapidly forward, but we have to deal with that.

"We have to roll with those punches."

TheWashington Post, 23 August 2025, excepts:

Postal operators in several countries have announced they will suspend certain deliveries to the United States, ahead of an end to a long-standing tariff exemption for packages worth $800 or less.

President Donald Trump has framed the decision as part of a fight against illegal drugs. But mail companies abroad are halting some of their services to the U.S., saying that many aspects of the new rules remain unclear.

Here's what to know.

The facts

Previously, most imported goods with a value of $800 or less were exempt from tariffs. That rule, known as the de minimis exemption, is set to end on Friday — though letters or personal gifts worth less than $100 won't be affected, postal operators said.

A number of national mail companies from countries such as France, Germany, the U.K and India have responded by temporarily suspending some mail services to the U.S.

For consumers, this could mean delays in receiving packages — which may now also incur tariffs of $80 or more.....

What will it mean for consumers?

The extra charges on a package will depend on the methodology used to calculate it, according to the executive order. The duty rate will either match the level of tariff the U.S. has imposed on the country of origin, or a specific duty based on the following:

For countries with a tariff rate of 15 percent or less, such as Britain, each package will incur an additional charge of $80.

Parcels originating from countries with U.S. tariffs of between 16 and 25 percent will incur an additional $160.

Countries with a tariff rate of more than 25 percent will face an extra $200.

Letters, documents and gifts under $100 are exempt — though DHL said in a statement that any parcel declared as a gift "will be subject to even stricter controls than before to prevent the misuse of private gift shipments for sending commercial goods."

UPDATE

See: V.O.S. Selections Inc et al v Donald J Trump et al 

1. https://www.cafc.uscourts.gov/opinions-orders/25-1812.OPINION.8-29-2025_2566151.pdf and

2. https://www.cafc.uscourts.gov/opinions-orders/25-1812.ORDER.8-29-2025_2566157.pdf

29.08.25 in V.O.S. Selections et al v Trump et al US Federal Court of Appeals handed down decision denying validity of all 5 Trump presidential orders which created US trade tariffs in 2025 to date. Because Trump is filing in the US Supreme Court tariffs remain in place for now. pic.twitter.com/XDeCCeIEVD

— no_filter_Yamba (@no_filter_Yamba) August 30, 2025

Donald J Trump braying into a legal headwind pic.twitter.com/ROmA7rJvwW

— no_filter_Yamba (@no_filter_Yamba) August 30, 2025

 

Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful global trade tariffs' list for 99 countries as of 1 August 2025 - in order of descending severity from 50% down to 10%

 

Since the first days of the 47th US Presidency Donald J. Trump has been publicly ruminating, boasting, threatening, proclaiming and then reversing his previously announced tariff regimes via the White House News & elsewhere.

Therefore the following list must be treated with caution, as like all other matters relating to US policy in 2025 it is subject to the vagaries of Trump's temper as well as his perverse reasoning.

Some or all of the percentages set out below may suddenly change via Donald Trump's own social media posts or formal presidential executive orders. Changes will be updated when confirmed.

Trump's 1 August 2025 global baseline trade tariffs

Brazil 50%

India 50% - on 6 August 2025 Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% to India's announced 25% trade tariff. On the alleged grounds that India is making a profit from purchasing Russian oil by re-selling stock held excess to current requirements.

Syria 41%

Laos 40%

Myanmar (Burma) 40%

Switzerland 39%

Iraq 35%

Serbia 35%

Canada 35%

China 30% - in place until mid-August when a 145% tariff is again mooted/threatened.

Algeria 30%

Bosnia and Herzegovina 30%

Libya 30%

South Africa 30%

Mexico 25% - in place for second 90 day period when expected to rise to between est. 30-35%.

Brunei 25%

Kazakhstan 25%

Moldova 25%

Tunisia 25%

Bangladesh 20%

Sri Lanka 20%

Taiwan 20%

Vietnam 20%

Cambodia 19%

Indonesia 19%

Malaysia 19%

Pakistan 19%

Philippines 19%

Thailand 19%

Nicaragua 18%

Afghanistan 15%

Angola 15%

Bolivia 15%

Botswana 15%

Cameroon 15%

Chad 15%

Costa Rica 15%

Ivory Coast 15%

Democratic Republic of the Congo 15%

Ecuador 15%

Equatorial Guinea 15%

Fiji 15%

Ghana 15%

Guyana 15%

Iceland 15%

Israel 15%

Japan 15%

Jordan 15%

Lesotho 15%

Liechtenstein 15%

Madagascar 15%

Malawi 15%

Mauritius 15%

Mozambique 15%

Namibia 15%

Nauru 15%

New Zealand 15%

Nigeria 15%

North Macedonia 15%

Norway 15%

Papua New Guinea 15%

South Korea 15%

Trinidad and Tobago 15%

Türkiye 15%

Uganda 15%

Vanuatu 15%

Venezuela 15%

Zambia 15%

Zimbabwe 15%

European Union 15%

Falkland Islands 10%

United Kingdom 10%

Australia 10% - it is noted that we like other countries are also subject to additional higher tariffs on certain goods.

The remaining 96 countries not specifically mentioned have a US baseline trade tariff rate of 10%.

Sources: The Guardian/ABC News//The White House.

Notes:

All listed rates exclude product-specific tariffs, such as steel, aluminium & copper carrying 50% tariffs and foreign cars & auto parts subject to 25% tariffs when imported into USA.

Brazil's 50% tariff includes an additional 40% rate linked to prosecution for alleged corruption & fomenting insurrection of former president Jair Bolsonaro. However, tariffs on aircraft, energy & orange juice will be lower.

Trump's own statements suggest that baseline tariffs now applied to Canada are in part a result of its government having recognised Palestinian statehood & effective as of 1 August, while most other nations tariffs commence from 6-7 August 2025.

China's total tariff rate has been in place since 14 May 2025, with some exceptions. The mooted higher rate of 145% & its timing appears to subject to Trump's whim.

Mexico's new baseline tariff excludes higher tariffs on certain goods.

The European Union (EU) baseline tariffs range appears to be on a sliding scale depending on goods being imported into USA. The EU is composed of 27 nations spread across Europe from Ireland through to Scandinavian, Baltic, South-eastern Europe and Mediterranean regions. 

Cartoons of the Week

Peter Broelman

 

Nick Anderson

David Rowe

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Cathy Wilcox

Trump's set the bar high as he begins his punitive Trade War 2.0 with the rest of the world

 

On 1 February 2025 the U.S. White House released a Fact Sheet entitled "Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico and China".

Stripping away 90 per cent of the rhetorical posturing contained therein, the fact sheet stated that:

 

"President Donald J. Trump is implementing a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China. Energy resources from Canada will have a lower 10% tariff."

Going on to assert: 

"Access to the American market is a privilege. The United States has one of the most open economies in the world, and the lowest average tariff rates in the world.

While trade accounts for 67% of Canada’s GDP, 73% of Mexico’s GDP, and 37% of China’s GDP, it accounts for only 24% of U.S. GDP. However, in 2023 the U.S. trade deficit in goods was the world’s largest at over $1 trillion.

Tariffs are a powerful, proven source of leverage for protecting the national interest. President Trump is using the tools at hand and taking decisive action that puts Americans’ safety and our national security first."

That same day in immediate response to these increased US tariffs, the Canadian Government released the following:

News release (excerpt)

"February 1, 2025 - Ottawa, Ontario - Department of Finance Canada

Today, the Honourable Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs, and the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, announced that the Government of Canada is moving forward with 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion worth of goods in response to the unjustified and unreasonable tariffs imposed by the United States (U.S.) on Canadian goods.

These countermeasures have one goal: to protect and defend Canada’s interests, consumers, workers, and businesses.

The first phase of our response will include tariffs on $30 billion in goods imported from the U.S., effective February 4, 2025, when the U.S tariffs are applied. The list includes products such as orange juice, peanut butter, wine, spirits, beer, coffee, appliances, apparel, footwear, motorcycles, cosmetics, and pulp and paper. A detailed list of these goods will be made available shortly.

Minister LeBlanc also announced that the government intends to impose tariffs on an additional list of imported U.S. goods worth $125 billion. A full list of these goods will be made available for a 21-day public comment period prior to implementation, and will include products such as passenger vehicles and trucks, including electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, certain fruits and vegetables, aerospace products, beef, pork, dairy, trucks and buses, recreational vehicles, and recreational boats.

In addition to this initial response, Ministers LeBlanc and Joly reiterated that all options remain on the table as the government considers additional measures, including non-tariff options, should the U.S. continue to apply unjustified tariffs on Canada......"

On 1 February 2025 the Government of Mexico also responded to the new US tariffs by instructing its Secretary of Economy to implement "tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico's interests" and its President strongly countering the absurd claims in the White House 'fact sheet' with: 

"We categorically reject the White House's slander against the Mexican government of having alliances with criminal organizations, as well as any intention of intervention in our territory.

If such an alliance exists anywhere, it is in the United States armories that sell high-powered weapons to these criminal groups, as demonstrated by the United States Department of Justice itself in January of this year."

As yet, Mexico has not indicated which US goods would be included in retaliatory tariffs. However media reports canvas the possibility of pork, cheese, fresh produce, manufactured steel and aluminium being included.

China's response became known on 2 February 2025.

China Daily, 2 February 2025:

China will file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization and take necessary countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests, the Ministry of Commerce said on Sunday after the United States announced it would impose 10 percent additional tariffs on goods from China.

The Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that the unilateral imposition of tariffs by the US seriously violates the rules of the WTO, fails to address US domestic issues, and undermines regular economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

"We urge the US to objectively and rationally view and handle its own fentanyl and other issues, rather than resorting to tariff threats against other countries," the commerce ministry said in a statement.

China urges the US to correct its wrong actions, move toward the same direction as the Chinese side, face problems directly, engage in frank dialogue, strengthen cooperation and manage differences on the basis of equality, mutual benefit and respect, the commerce ministry said.

Exactly how much Trump's trade war is going to cost all four national economies is uncertain but it is not unreasonable to start the count in the billions of dollars annually if the situation continues unchecked. If so this can be expected to knock percentage points of the Gross Domestic Product of Canada, Mexico and probably that of the national debt-ladened United States.

The implications for Australia are uncomfortable to say the least.

In the first instance because assurances appear to have been given to Canada and Mexico in 2024 that the US tariffs imposed on their goods & services in 2025 would not reach anywhere near 25 per cent and, Australia can no longer have confidence that the new tariff level discussed with it will be a low as promised.

In the second instance because there is no way that global trade will not experience some disruption as these tariffs are rolled out to more OECD countries during the coming months and, as Australia with an export market spanning at least 27 of the 38 countries in this category we have a potential risk exposure independent of whatever absurd import/export trade demands Trump decides to makes of us.

BACKGROUND

Financial Review 30 January 2025, p.19 excerpt:

US national debt is around $US30 trillion ($48 trillion), bringing annual interest costs for the government near $US1 trillion and helping tip the nation's budget into a $US1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2024.

Sovereign debt accelerated sharply following the COVID-19 pandemic. That has sparked wider market concerns about the sustainability of the US balance sheet and sent bond yields advancing since Trump's election win in November. The bond market reaction is a concerning sign, according to Mr Lamm, given the US Federal Reserve has already begun to cut rates.

"The bond market appears to be taking a cautious view on rising inflation risks and elevated US budget deficits into an environment where there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the ultimate form and impact of President Trump's economic policies."

Meanwhile, gold - traditionally perceived as a safe haven asset to ride out wider market volatility - rose more than 25 per cent last year, touching a record high of nearly $US2800 an ounce in October.

Its best year in more than a decade was attributed to strong demand from global central banks - particularly the People's Bank of China, which revealed last month that it had resumed buying gold in November after a six-month hiatus....