Eight days out from the 21 May 2022 federal general election and much of the NSW Northern Rivers region is on flood watch again

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):

Flood Watch for the Northern Rivers and Central West

Issued at 12:21 pm EST on Thursday 12 May 2022

Flood Watch Number: 3

MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN RIVERS AND CENTRAL WEST FROM THURSDAY

A trough over western inland New South Wales will generate further moderate to heavy rain in many areas of the Central West on Thursday. This may cause minor flooding along the Castlereagh, Macquarie and Bell Rivers from Thursday night.

* Reissue to include Castlereagh *

River level rises have been observed from recent moderate rainfall in the Northern Rivers. Further moderate showers expected on Thursday may see river levels rise to minor flood levels.

Renewed minor flooding is also possible along the Bogan River where a flood warning is current.

The Bureau is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue further catchment specific warnings if and when required.

Catchment soil moisture is average.

The weather system is expected to cause flooding for the catchments listed. Flood Classes (minor, moderate, major) are only defined for catchments where the Bureau provides a flood warning service.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Tweed and Rouse Rivers - minor flooding 

Brunswick River and Marshalls Creek - minor flooding

Wilsons River - minor flooding

Richmond River - minor flooding

Castlereagh River - minor flooding

Orange, Molong and Bell River - minor flooding

Turon and Macquarie Rivers to Burrendong Dam - minor flooding

Macquarie River d/s Burrendong Dam - minor flooding

Flood warnings are current for the Culgoa, Bokhara, Bogan, Paroo and Warrego Rivers.

For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/

For the latest rainfall and weather forecasts see www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood

 [my yellow highlighting]

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There is a chance of above median rainfall across much of the continent from 14 May 2022 to September 2022.

According to BOM long range forecasting there is also a 50-60% chance of the Page and Richmond electorates in the Northern Rivers region being “unusually wet” between 14 to 27 May 2022.

Stream Flow Forecast

Click on image to enlarge

Climate outlook overview

Issued: 5 May 2022

Winter (June to August) rainfall is likely to be above median for most of Australia, except south-western Australia, the south-east coast, and southern Tasmania which have roughly equal chances of being above or below median.

June to August maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for northern, south-western, and south-eastern parts of Australia, but below median for broad areas of inland southern and central Australia.

Minimum temperatures for June to August are very likely to be warmer than median across almost all of Australia.

The weakening La Niña, the chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and other localised drivers are likely to be influencing this outlook.

Latest Climate Driver Update, 10 May 2022:

La Niña maintains strength

The 2021–22 La Niña event continues in the tropical Pacific, with little change in strength in the past few weeks.

Several indicators of La Niña, including tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), have maintained or slightly increased their strength over the past fortnight. However, beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific, waters have warmed closer to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels.

Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate a return to neutral ENSO by the early southern hemisphere winter. Only one of seven models continues La Niña conditions through the southern winter. La Niña conditions increase the chances of above average rainfall for much of eastern Australia, while neutral ENSO has little influence on rainfall patterns.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. All climate model outlooks surveyed suggest a negative IOD may develop in the coming months. While model outlooks have low accuracy at this time of year and hence some caution should be taken with IOD outlooks beyond May, there is strong forecast consistency across international models. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia. It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive and is forecast to remain positive for the coming four weeks. During autumn SAM typically has a weaker influence on Australian rainfall, but as we approach winter, positive SAM often has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently strengthened in the western Indian Ocean. Most climate models indicate the MJO will briefly weaken, and then re-strengthen again later this week in the Maritime Continent or western Pacific region. Should the MJO re-strength in the Maritime Continent region, it can enhance rainfall in north-eastern Australia. It also typically increases cloudiness to Australia's north.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. [my yellow highlighting]

NSW predicted rainfall over April, May and June 2022

It would appear there is some likelihood that the next three calendar months will see temperatures rise above median and a 60 per cent chance of an increase in median rainfall across New South Wales generally.

With the predicted above median rainfall occurring inland as far as Tibooburra & Broken Hill and along the length of the coastal zone. 

The Northern NSW section of this coast zone - from Clarence Valley  to Tweed Shire and inland as far as Lismore City - having a 60 to 74 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall.

Brief Outline

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), retrieved 14 March 2022:

Climate outlook overview

Issued: 10 March 2022

April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of northern and eastern Australia, with small areas of south-west WA and western Tasmania likely to be below median. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall.

April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for western, northern and south-eastern parts of Australia. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days.

Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median across virtually all of Australia.

Climate influences include the weakening La Niña in the Pacific Ocean.

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La Niña remains active in the tropical Pacific. Outlooks indicate the La Niña is likely to end around mid-autumn 2022, with a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions. While this La Niña event is weakening, it is expected to continue to contribute to the wetter than median outlooks for parts of eastern Australia.

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BOM: Median rainfall April-June (1981-2018) 

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Wetter April to June likely for northern and eastern Australia

Issued: 10 March 2022

April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of the NT, Queensland, south-east SA, and most of NSW (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Some small areas of south-west WA and western Tasmania are likely to be below median (chance of exceeding median is less than 40%). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June across the northern half of the NT, northern and western Queensland and small areas of western and coastal NSW (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance). However, it should be noted that seasonal rainfall at this time of the year is starting to decrease, so unusually high rainfall for these areas isn't as high as recent months.

While the April outlook reflects the three-month outlook, the May outlook suggests below median rainfall is likely for south-western Australia, and western Tasmania, and only a small part of central Queensland is likely to be above median.

Past accuracy for April to June rainfall is moderate to high for most areas of Australia, with low to very low accuracy across much of eastern WA, northern and western SA, the central NT, western Victoria and southern Tasmania.

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Warmer April to June days and nights for most areas

Issued: 10 March 2022

April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for most of WA, the northern and central NT, Queensland, northern and southern NSW, south-east SA, Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of WA, the northern and central NT, most of Queensland except the far south, most of Victoria, and Tasmania (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance), with the highest chances in the tropical north, and Tasmania.

Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median almost Australia wide (chances are greater than 60%), with much of northern and eastern Australia very likely (chances are greater than 80%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of Australia except much of southern WA and western SA (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance). The highest likelihoods are across far northern Australia and Tasmania.

Past accuracy for April to June maximum temperatures is high to very high for almost all of Australia, with moderate accuracy in a band stretching through central WA and across most of SA. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across northern Australia, grading to low to very low accuracy across southern parts of the mainland. Tasmania has moderate accuracy in the south, with low accuracy in the north.

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Historical median and mean rainfall Lismore, Ballina, and Grafton NSW for April, May and June.

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CLIMATE COUNCIL: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison must acknowledge climate change in 2022 flood disaster

CLIMATE COUNCIL STATEMENT ON THE FLOODS

07.03.22

BY CLIMATE COUNCIL

This is climate change. Now is the time for leadership.

The scale and speed of the flooding disaster still unfolding across Queensland and New South Wales is breathtaking. Some communities remain cut off and in dire need of fresh water and food, emergency housing, telecommunications, and power.

The emergency response is still underway, but we already know of widespread devastation with lives lost, livelihoods swept away and entire towns destroyed.

As extraordinary flooding and extreme rainfall were sweeping the east coast, hundreds of the world’s most eminent scientists were providing information painfully relevant to what Australians are experiencing.

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change makes it crystal clear that climate change is intensifying extreme weather events including rainfall events like this one.

The report warns that our ability to cope with these events as well as escalating heatwaves, bushfires, and other extremes is rapidly diminishing. It spells out how the decisions of governments this decade will determine how much worse things get.

In short: unless we rapidly and drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions this decade, extreme weather will get much, much worse.

Climate change isn’t a footnote to the story of these floods. It is the story.

Some politicians claim this flooding disaster was something no one could have predicted. The implication is that the heartbreak and loss being experienced by so many Australians right now is unavoidable.

The truth is, scientists have been warning us for decades that climate change will worsen all extreme weather in Australia. Deadlier heatwaves. Devastating droughts. Megafires like Black Summer. Rainbombs such as this.

Many of these flood-affected communities have experienced multiple “unprecedented” disasters in the past 10 years. If we don’t start talking about why this is happening then we won’t be able to respond appropriately to this disaster over the coming months and years. Nor can we adequately prepare for those on the way.

Worsening disaster after disaster – with fewer reprieves between are our reality, because the Earth’s atmosphere is warmer, wetter, and more energetic. This is climate change.

Unprecedented is no reason to be unprepared.

We’ve had decades to respond to expert advice and help communities prepare for a massive escalation in extreme weather.

It’s been almost 500 days since the Royal Commission into Natural National Disaster Arrangements handed its report to the Morrison Government. The Commission acknowledged the role that climate change is playing in worsening disasters such as the Black Summer bushfires: “Natural disasters have changed, and it has become clear to us that the nation’s disaster management arrangements must also change.”

Our frontline responders are being stretched past their absolute limits. Battered communities are struggling to cope, often experiencing multiple record-breaking disasters within a few years. In some parts of Australia people can no longer afford insurance and many will be left with little after these waters recede.

Major investment and careful planning are required to prepare communities and first responders.

Where are our leaders?

Too many leaders are silent or absent. Some are wilfully misleading the public about what little has been done to address the climate challenge. Time and again expert advice is offered but ignored.

Now is the time to talk about the Morrison Government’s inadequate response to climate change, because burning coal, oil, and gas is supercharging extreme weather. 

Those who argue otherwise want debate gagged because they are failing to step up on this issue.

Australians are paying a high price for the lack of meaningful national action to tackle climate change and prepare communities for worsening extreme weather.

Elected leaders must be held accountable.

The media has a critical role to play in explaining why extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. Today, it is remiss to report on any extreme weather event without providing information on how climate change worsens these events, and what should be done in response.

Australians want and deserve better than this.

We call on all federal political parties and candidates to:

1. Tell Australians what concrete steps you will take to prepare and equip emergency services and communities for inevitable climate-fuelled disasters.

2. Actively acknowledge the destructive role that climate change is playing in driving worsening disasters including these megafloods.

3. Explain to the public how in the next term of Federal Parliament you plan to get national emissions plummeting by rapidly scaling up readily available renewable energy and building an economy that is free from fossil fuels.

4. Ensure that towns, cities and communities are rebuilt in a way that takes into account the inevitable future changes in climate and makes them more resilient.

5. It’s time to show leadership and step up to the most critical issue not just of our time, but all time. We have everything to lose, the time for action is now.

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The Climate Council brings together Australia’s preeminent experts of climate science, impacts and solutions. We provide authoritative, expert and evidence-based advice on climate change to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community. Our full team of experts can be found here

For further information, go to: climatecouncil.org.au

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By Climate Council / 07 March 2022

La Niña's arrival in the tropical Pacific may herald high flow river levels on the NSW coast during December 2021

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):

Climate outlook overview, 18 November 2021:

• December to February rainfall is likely to be above median for the eastern half of the eastern States, with highest chances along eastern Queensland.

• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for December to February for parts of the eastern States (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance).

• December to February maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for much of northern and western Australia, as well as parts of the south-east. Below median daytime temperatures are likely for eastern NSW.

• Minimum temperatures for December to February are likely to be warmer than median for most of Australia, with southern WA and western SA having roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than median nights.

• The developing La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, and the La Niña (SAM) phase are likely influencing the above median rainfall outlooks.

 Climate Driver Update, 23 November 2021:

La Niña established in the tropical Pacific

La Niña has become established in the tropical Pacific. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be short-lived, persisting until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. La Niña events increase the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.

Several indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now show clear La Niña patterns. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are close to La Niña thresholds, with climate model outlooks expecting them to cool further. In the atmosphere, cloud and wind patterns are typical of La Niña, indicating the atmosphere is now responding to, and reinforcing, the changes observed in the ocean.

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is approaching its end, with oceanic index values in the neutral range. However, cloud and wind patterns across the eastern Indian Ocean suggest some IOD influence remains. All models indicate the IOD will remain neutral for the coming months, consistent with its typical seasonal cycle. A negative IOD increases the chances of above-average spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the Maritime Continent region at weak to moderate strength. The MJO is forecast to progress eastwards across the Maritime Continent and into the western Pacific over the coming fortnight, increasing the chances of above average rainfall across northern Australia and the Maritime Continent, to Australia's north.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has generally been positive for several weeks. It is forecast to remain at positive levels to the end of the year. A positive SAM during summer typically brings wetter weather to eastern parts of Australia, but drier than average conditions for western Tasmania.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C for the 1910–2019 period. Rainfall across northern Australia during its wet season (October–April) has increased since the late 1990s. In recent decades there has been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.

Where the rain has been falling across Australia so far in 2021

The Weekly Times (Online), 3 October 2021:

AUSTRALIA’S WETTEST TOWNS OF 2021 VERSUS THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE

1. Carnarvon, WA – 408mm (186 per cent of its 12-month average)

2. Forbes, NSW – 813mm (169 per cent)

3. West Wyalong, NSW – 657mm (152 per cent)

4. Condobolin, NSW – 581mm (145 per cent)

5. Bega, NSW – 862mm (137 per cent)

6. Tibooburra, NSW – 244mm (136 per cent)

7. Mt Hope, NSW – 512mm (133 per cent)

8. Cunderdin, WA – 399mm (133 per cent)

9. Taree, NSW – 1450mm (133 per cent)

10. Braidwood, NSW – 827mm (132 per cent)

11. Ivanhoe, NSW – 298mm (128 per cent)

12. Morowa, WA – 355mm (126 per cent)

13. Albany, WA – 1002mm (126 per cent)

14. Walgett, NSW – 518mm (125 per cent)

15. Lake Cargelligo, NSW – 519mm (125 per cent)

16. Trangie, NSW – 612mm (124 per cent)

17. Orange, NSW – 1047mm (119 per cent)

18. Inverell, NSW – 902mm (117 per cent)

19. Cootamundra, NSW – 674mm (117 per cent)

20. Moree, NSW – 650mm (117 per cent)

21. Warialda, NSW – 796mm (117 per cent)

22. Temora, NSW – 609mm (116 per cent)

23. Texas, Queensland – 752mm (115 per cent)

24. Dubbo, NSW – 635mm (115 per cent)

25. Grenfell, NSW – 711mm (115 per cent)

26. Hillston, NSW – 423mm (115 per cent)

27. Pilliga, NSW – 632mm (114 per cent)

28. Mungindi, NSW – 574mm (114 per cent)

29. Young, NSW – 673mm (114 per cent)

30. Narrabri, NSW – 617mm (114 per cent)

31. Cairns, Queensland – 2264mm (114 per cent)

32. Bombala, NSW – 624mm (112 per cent)

33. Cowra, NSW – 708mm (111 per cent)

34. Glen Innes, NSW – 961mm (111 per cent)

35. Bourke, NSW – 325mm (110 per cent)

36. Goulburn, NSW – 589mm (110 per cent)

37. Canberra, ACT – 639mm (110 per cent)

38. Coonabarabran, NSW – 700mm (109 per cent)

39. Moss Vale, WA – 736mm (108 per cent)

40. Nowra, NSW – 937mm (108 per cent)

41. Busselton, WA – 728mm (107 per cent)

42. Taralga, NSW – 852mm (106 per cent)

43. Barraba, NSW – 730mm (106 per cent)

44. Omeo, VIC – 667mm (105 per cent)

45. Narrogin, WA – 513mm (104 per cent)

46. Narrandera, NSW – 445mm (104 per cent)

47. Cobar, NSW – 344mm (103 per cent)

48. Albury, NSW – 625mm (103 per cent)

49. Bathurst, NSW – 616mm (103 per cent)

50. Yarrawonga, VIC – 472mm (102 per cent)

51. Newdegate, WA – 375mm (102 per cent)

52. Grafton, NSW – 1009mm (102 per cent)

53. Katanning, WA – 453mm (102 per cent)

54. Gelantipy, VIC – 790mm (102 per cent)

55. Peak Hill, NSW – 568mm (101 per cent)

56. Tamworth, NSW – 623mm (101 per cent)

57. Gabo Island, VIC – 942mm (101 per cent)

58. Wagga Wagga, NSW – 570mm (100 per cent)

59. Wongan Hills, WA – 386mm (100 per cent)

60. Bendigo, VIC – 501mm (100 per cent)

61. Parkes, NSW – 619mm (100 per cent)

Latest Bureau Of Meteorology Climate Driver Update, Australian Daily Extreme Temperatures Jan-Aug 2021 & Spring rainfall predictions

Issued 31 August 2021

Tropical Pacific Ocean likely to cool, but remain ENSO-neutral

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are near average, despite slowly cooling over the past two months. Waters beneath the surface are slightly cooler than average.

While most models indicate SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue cooling over the coming months, ENSO-neutral is favoured to persist. Only two of the seven models surveyed suggest SSTs will remain cool for long enough to be considered a La Niña event. This cooling of the tropical Pacific may be contributing to the wetter than median climate outlooks in Australia.

Most climate models predict the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will persist through the southern hemisphere spring, despite current values rising marginally above the −0.4 °C threshold. Stronger-than-usual easterly winds across the tropical eastern Indian Ocean over the last three weeks have weakened the IOD event, however, this is most likely to be temporary. A majority of the five climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict the negative IOD will persist into November. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the western Indian Ocean, where it has remained since early August. This phase of the MJO typically sees increased cloudiness over the Southeast Asian parts of the Maritime Continent and eastern Indian Ocean, along with enhanced easterly wind anomalies, which may have acted to weaken the negative IOD. Forecasts generally indicate a weak MJO will progress eastwards across the Indian Ocean in the coming week.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index has been positive over the past week and is forecast to remain so for the next fortnight. A positive SAM typically has a drying influence on south-west and south-east Australia during winter, and enhances chances of above average rainfall over much of New South Wales during spring.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C over 1910–2019, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.

Next Climate Driver Update expected on 14 September 2021.Climate Driver

Daily maximum temperature extremes graph for Australia: 1 January to 31 August 2021

Above median spring rainfall likely for eastern two-thirds of Australia

Issued: 26 August 2021

• Rainfall for spring (September to November) is likely to be above median for south-east WA, the NT, SA, Queensland, NSW, Victoria and eastern Tasmania (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Much of the eastern States show a greater than 80% chance, as does eastern parts of the NT and SA. Conversely, parts of western WA and south-west Tasmania are likely to have below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%).

• The pattern for the months of September and October is similar to the spring outlook, though the likelihood of exceeding the median rainfall is not as high in the eastern two-thirds of the country, and extends further west into eastern WA for September.

• Rainfall for October to December is likely to be above median for the eastern half of Australia, and below median for north-west WA.

• Past accuracy (Opens in new window) for September to November rainfall is high to very high for most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia, with moderate accuracy for central and eastern Victoria, most of WA and the central NT shifting to low accuracy for central areas of WA.

BOM September 2021 rainfall outlook: Taree to the NSW-Qld border