Wednesday 21 March 2018

The 'new' business model in politics


"It's no good fighting an election campaign on the facts because actually it's all about emotion."

Proof that a business model of election campaigning has come off the pages of a Hollywood screenplay and out onto the streets of everyday Australia (video at 5:54).



Tuesday 20 March 2018

Is This The Clarence River Estuary Future If Berejiklian Government Has Its Way? "As the cruise season continues, smoke particles emitted from cruise ship funnels have left people living and working near the port increasingly alarmed"


Well the NSW Minister for Roads Maritime and Freight & Nationals MP for Oxley Melinda Pavey ended the fourth quarter of 2017 in much the same manner as she progressed through the three preceding quarters - she meet with representatives of international cruise lines.

I still didn't see any listed meeting with Yaegl native title representatives or with Clarence Valley Council in her published ministerial diary.

She certainly hasn't met with the communities of Yamba and Iluka which will be most affected by the 24/7 noise and fumes emanating from those cruise ships she is so eager to see make Port of Yamba-Clarence River a regular destination.

This is what happened in Hobart when it opened its doors to such cruise ships........ 


The Mercury, 15 March 2018:

HOBART residents are continuing to suffer the effects of air pollution from visiting cruise ships, says Acting Lord Mayor Ron Christie.

As the cruise season continues, smoke particles emitted from cruise ship funnels have left people living and working near the port increasingly alarmed, Ald Christie said.

“This is a real public health concern,’’ he said.

“I have been taking calls recently, elderly residents… traders… they say they can smell it. One gentleman, says he gets asthma.” Ald Christie said with 59 ships scheduled to visit Hobart by the end of this season, and with greater numbers expected next season, the smoke issue needed to be brought to a head.

The council in September called on the Federal Government to force cruise ships to burn cleaner fuel while in Hobart, which was already a requirement for Sydney Harbour.

Some cruise ships can burn a cheaper low-grade fuel called bunker fuel, which emits sulphur dioxide, while in port.

A ban on fuel containing high levels of sulphur is due to begin in 2020. The State Government’s Environment Protection Authority has been monitoring air quality from an installation at CSIRO since last June.

An EPA statement said an interim report on the cruise ship season’s results would be published by the end of July.

“Monitoring at Hobart Port over this cruise ship season has seen ambient levels of sulphur dioxide well within national and international air quality standards.” the statement said.
A State Government spokesman said imposing fuel regulations on cruise ships before the 2020 ban could cause cruise ships to bypass Tasmania, …..
Alderman Christie said his previous strong support for the promotion of cruise ship visits, was now tempered by pollution concerns…..

Australia Post-Port Arthur Massacre



Twenty years after the Port Arthur Massacre when a lone gunman killed 35 people and wounded 23 more…….

The Conversation, 27 April 2016:

The 1996 firearm laws were immediately followed by a buying spree, as banned rapid-fire rifles and shotguns were replaced with freshly imported single-shot firearms.
By 1999, civilian gun imports had dropped to a record low. And most gun dealers closed their doors.

In the years that followed, gun-buying climbed steadily to new heights. By 2015, the arms trade had broken all previous records. Last financial year Australia imported 104,000 firearms.

The million guns destroyed after Port Arthur have been replaced with 1,026,000 new ones. And the surge only shows upward momentum.

Twenty-one years after……

News.com.au, 12 October 2017:

THERE is a major “loophole” in Australia’s gun laws which allows for private arsenals with hundreds of guns and owners to “buy their first ... or 310th gun”.

Tighter restrictions on gun ownership — including a compulsory requirement to show “genuine reason” for owning each firearm — were introduced in 1996 following the Port Arthur massacre.

But the number of weapons that can be owned by an individual have since been weakened in various states and are not exclusively capped.

NSW Greens spokesman David Shoebridge said “a loophole in NSW’s gun laws allows private individuals to use the same reason to buy their 1st, 10th or 310th gun” and that Australia faces another mass shooting if the national approach to gun control isn’t tightened.

“A 20-year review of gun laws enacted after the Port Arthur Massacre in 1996 did not even look at capping the number of guns that can be owned by one individual,” he said.

“We are seeing private arsenals being built up in our major capital cities ...(and) suburbia.”

NSW Police figures for private firearm ownership obtained under the Freedom of Information Act show there are 31 private arsenals across Sydney with 73 to 305 guns each.

“Of the top 100 private arsenals with the most guns, 31 are in Sydney,” Mr Shoebridge said.

“These gun owners are not collectors or arms dealers but private individuals who have been allowed to amass private arsenals.

“It is inevitable that some of these private arsenals with end up in the hands of criminals.

“This really isn’t a question of mere politics it is a question of life and death.”

Almost 22 years later……

ABC News, 1 March 2018:

Thousands of automatic rifles, handguns and a rocket launcher are among the weapons handed in during last year's National Firearms Amnesty.

The final results, released today, show 57,324 firearms were handed in between July and September across Australia to be registered or destroyed.

Authorities received around 2,500 fully-automatic or semi-automatic guns that were previously unaccounted for, and 2,900 handguns.

The rocket launcher was handed in to a licensed firearms dealer in Queensland, who believes it was once recovered at a local tip.

New South Wales received the highest number of firearms at 24,831, followed by Queensland on 16,375. Victorians handed in 9,175 guns.

Almost a third of the weapons were destroyed, with the rest either registered and handed back, or passed on to a licensed dealer for resale.

Federal Minister for Law Enforcement Angus Taylor said the weapons were no longer on the "grey market", which refers to guns that are not registered and not in the hands of criminals.

"It's critical to get them off this grey market … so they don't end up in the black market," he said.

Despite the evidence before his eyes Home Affairs tsar Peter Dutton is apparently considering expanding the political power of the Australian gun lobby – à la U.S. National Rifle Association……

The Guardian, 15 March 2018:

The home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, is considering establishing a committee to allow gun importers to review proposed changes to firearm regulations for “appropriateness and intent”.

Following a meeting with a pro-gun lobbyist in February, Dutton is weighing up whether to establish a so-called “firearms advisory council”, which the gun lobby says would give it “a seat at the table” to advise the government on firearms policy.

Last month Dutton met with officials from Nioa, one of Australia’s largest gun dealers, and members of the shooting lobby to discuss the council.

Nioa is run by Robert Nioa, a major political donor to his father-in-law, the federal MP Bob Katter. He is also a director of the firearms industry lobbying group Shooting Industry Foundation of Australia, or Sifa.

Sifa’s other directors include the general manager of Winchester Australia, Clive Pugh and the managing director of Beretta Australia, Luca Scribani Rossi.

The group donated to Liberal and National MPs in the lead-up to the 2016 federal election and pumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into a campaign that helped minor rightwing parties gain votes in last year’s Queensland state election.

Held at Nioa’s company headquarters in Brisbane, the meeting was attended by Laura Patterson, Sifa’s communications and research officer, and Nioa official David Briggs. Robert Nioa was not at the meeting.

In a video posted by Sifa on social media, Patterson said the meeting was aimed at “formalising” the establishment of a “firearms advisory council”.

In the video, which included an image of the department’s logo, Patterson said the council would “establish a mechanism for expert government to industry consultation” and would allow Sifa to “review proposed regulatory changes for efficiency, appropriateness and intent”.

BACKGROUND

Australian Government, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 2017:

Rates of firearm-related injuries for both hospitalised cases and deaths fell between 1999–00 and 2005–06 from a starting rate of 2 cases per 100,000 population to 1.5 per 100,000 for hospitalised cases and 1 per 100,000 for deaths in 2013–14 (Figure 6).

Rates for hospitalised cases were relatively steady from 2005–06 onwards, while rates for deaths continued to fall:

* The fall in rates for hospitalised cases in the early part of the period was mainly attributable to a decline in unintentional cases, from 221 to 105, between 1999–00 and 2005–06.

* The fall in rates for deaths over the entire period was mainly attributable to a decline in intentional self-harm (suicide) cases, from 236 to 166, between 1999–00 and 2012–13.

The rate of firearm suicide by males was about 6 to 7 per 100,000 population annually for about 30 years, to the late 1980s.

The rate then declined to less than 1 per 100,000 by 2011 (Figure 7). A similar pattern was seen for females, although rates were much lower.

Monday 19 March 2018

Trump brings out the knives in his effort to derail the FBI-Mueller investigation into Russian involvment in his presidential campaign


What occurred.....

Andrew McCabe became acting head of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) after the sudden firing of James B. Comey on 9 May 2017 and, as acting head gave evidence before a US Senate committee in which he contradicted the WhiteHouse’s assertion that James B. Comey, the F.B.I. director fired by PresidentTrump...had lost the support of rank-and-file F.B.I. agents.

US President Donald Trump's reaction was hostile across multiple tweets over the following months and he implied that McCabe might be fired before he could retire.  



On 15 March 2018 The New York Times reported:

WASHINGTON — The special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, has subpoenaed the Trump Organization in recent weeks to turn over documents, including some related to Russia, according to two people briefed on the matter. The order is the first known instance of the special counsel demanding records directly related to President Trump’s businesses, bringing the investigation closer to the president.

Following hard on the heels of the Comey firing Mueller had been appointed to conduct an investigation into Russian links to Trump's 2015- 2016 presidential campaign.

The following day, 16 March, U.S. ABC News reported:

Former FBI deputy director Andy McCabe was fired Friday from the federal government, just two days before he was set to retire, Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced in a statement late Friday night.

Nearly 24 hours earlier, McCabe was inside the Justice Department making the case to keep his job until Sunday when he officially qualifies for retirement benefits. His firing means his full pension — built after nearly 22 years in government — is in jeopardy.

After formal announcement of the McCabe sacking Trump tweeted this:


That Trump's move against McCabe is a step on the road to firing Special Counsel Robert Mueller might be inferred from the Dowd quote below. 

According to The Daily Beast  on 17 March 2018:

“I pray that Acting Attorney General Rosenstein will follow the brilliant and courageous example of the FBI Office of Professional Responsibility and Attorney General Jeff Sessions and bring an end to alleged Russia Collusion investigation manufactured by McCabe’s boss James Comey based upon a fraudulent and corrupt Dossier,” Dowd then wrote.
He told The Daily Beast he was speaking on behalf of the president, in his capacity as the president’s attorney.

McCabe's response.....

Statement released by Andrew McCabe's lawyer - sourced from Twitter

A year ago the Turnbull Cabinet decided to elevate "a fascist like Peter Dutton"



This is Peter Craig Dutton, Australian Minister for Home Affairs, Minister for Immigration and Border Protection, millionaire property speculator, alleged closet racist and former Queensland police officer.

Twelve months ago government and national intelligence circles were unhappy about his elevation to powerful Tsar


Dutton's portfolios are now under audit and review as they merge and grow.


BuzzFeed, 12 March 2018:

The new super agency created by home affairs minister Peter Dutton is facing unprecedented government scrutiny, amid a series of audits and reviews into visa arrangements and anti-corruption measures.

The federal government merged a large number of Australian government agencies into one super agency headed by Dutton earlier this year.

In an unprecedented government initiative, Dutton is overseeing more than 13,000 staff across the immigration department, Australian Border Force (ABF), Australian Federal Police, Australian Crime and Intelligence Commission, Austrac and the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation.

The agency is absorbing a range of functions from the attorney-general's department, the department of infrastructure and the prime minister's department, and will have a total budget of more than $2 billion.

The arrangement was particularly controversial because there was no recommendation to actually create the agency; its establishment rests on the contested assumption that centralising these government agencies will ensure greater efficiency across immigration, law enforcement and other government areas.

But the new agency is now facing unprecedented scrutiny as home affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo grapples with how to bring disparate government entities under the umbrella of a single agency.

The Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) is currently undertaking three separate audits into the integration of the immigration department and customs, the efficiency of visa processing and personnel security risks.

It is currently considering an additional six audits into staff integrity measures, payment standards, cape class patron vessel support, intelligence operations, collection of visa revenue and the tourist refund scheme.

Previous ANAO reports have scrutinised the immigration department's detention contracting arrangements and found them to have serious flaws. One review into contracting on Nauru and Manus found it spent more than $1 billion without proper approvals, and another found it failed to oversee healthcare arrangements in onshore detention centres.

Watch this space.

* Photograph found at The Guardian.

Sunday 18 March 2018

Australian personal investment portfolio profiles reveal a sjgnificant lack of diversification and a fondness for shares


“This is indeed the wealthiest retired generation ever in Australian history…. Self-funded or partly self-funded retirees appear to enjoy a significantly higher standard of living than those who rely on the Aged Pension”  [Australian Centre for Australian Studies, August 2016]


According to the Australian Stock Exchange in 2017 there were over 11 million investors across the country.

Given the many words being written on the subject of share dividend imputation and franking credits here is a broad breakdown of the investment types these people hold.

Sources of income during retirement

In 2016–17, there were 3.6 million persons, aged 45 years and over, who reported that they were retired from the labour force. This group comprised 1.7 million men and 1.9 million women. Just over half of all retired persons were aged 70 years and over (56% of retired men and 52% of retired women).

Approx. 49% of male and 45% of female retirees stated main source of income was 'government pension/allowance'. In total this represents an est. 1.6 million individuals retired from the labour force.

Approx. 33% of male and 17% of female retirees stated their main source of income was 'superannuation/annuity/allocated pension' (37% of females state ‘partners income’ as main source of income). In total this represents an est. 884,000 individuals retired from the labour force.

Est. 30% of all retirees appeared to be eligible to claim a government part-pension.

Australian retirees (60 years and older) investment portfolio profile:

68% hold cash
58% hold shares
26% hold investment property
18% hold other on-exchange investments.
Retirees on average expect an 8 per cent return on investment.

Australian all adult (18 years of age & older) investment portfolio profile:

60% hold investments
Up to est. 42% hold investment property
31% hold shares
Up to 25% hold other on-exchange investments, including derivatives
10% hold family trusts
15% hold self-managed super funds (SMSFs), with the majority held by individuals over 45 years of age
Est. 44% of SMSFs contain shares and over 50% hold cash.
Adult investors on average expect an 8.2 to 9.2 per cent return on investment.

Only est. 5% of investors borrow money in order to invest.

Overall less than half (46%) of all investment portfolios are diversified to lessen financial risk.

Currently, most investors in Australia are self-directed, choosing to conduct their own research.

[See https://www.asx.com.au/documents/resources/2017-asx-investor-study.pdf
& http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6238.0]

Excess Franking Credits derived from Share Dividends

The average annual cash refund for unused franking credits is thought to be in the vicinity of $5,000 per shareholder, while the average unused credits cashback payment for people in the top 1% of self-managed super funds is an est. $83,000 a year.

Social media opinion
Tim Lyons at Revielle 

Case studies mentioned in mainstream media

Case Study 1

It has been pointed out that with income from other sources being $130,000, "Jean" would have income producing assets possibly valued at est. $3.2 million. She appears to own her own home.

Case Study 2 - Stjepan has retired with what appears to be a self-managed super fund. As his fund is in the pension phase he pays $0 tax. He and his wife have a combined annual income of $89,000 and own shares valued at $200,000. He states that he will lose "several thousand dollars a year" if he no longer receives cash back for excess franking credits.
Stepan owns his own home plus a holiday unit.
If this couple's combined income is $89,000 then they would possibly have income producing assets valued at around $1.7 million.

Case Study 3 - "Peter" has a self-managed super fund. As his fund is in pension phase he pays $0 tax. Peter has an income of $60,000 a year. Dividends from his share portfolio see him receiving franking credit cashback payments of over est. $8,000 per annum which he lodges in his SMSF account to grow his balance.
His income producing assets are possibly valued at est. $1.2 million.

Case Study 4 - Margaret and her husband have a self-managed super fund. As their fund is in the pension phase they pay $0 tax. The SMSF appears to solely invest is shares - 85% of which are Telstra and big bank shares. 
Currently National Australia Bank shares are worth in the vicinity of $29.51 with an annual dividend yield of 6.71%, Westpac shares are worth in the vicinity of $29.52 with an annual dividend yield of 6.37%, Commonwealth Bank shares are worth in the vicinity of $75.34 with an annual dividend yield of 5.71% and, Telstra shares are worth in the vicinity of $3.35 with an annual dividend yield of 6.8%.
No income is stated but what is asserted is that the abolition of payment for excess franking credits will see their annual income reduced by 30%.
Margaret and her husband own their own waterfront residence in Sydney.

The bottom line is that investors who structured their portfolios to take maximum advantage of excess franking credit cash payments do not appear to have considered the relatively short history of this cash payment scheme or the possibility that a political push might occur to eliminate the 'value' of unused franking credits - given that current owners of these credits who had no tax liability were claiming refunds for tax they had never paid in the first place.