Australian Federal Election 2013: Battle of the Worms

The first televised and transcribed Leaders Debate of the Australian 2013 election campaign occurred on Sunday night 11 August 2013 and by Monday morning there was barely a ripple to be seen on the electoral pond.

Both leader's had said it all before in one guise or another and the only novel aspect was the wide disparity between the behaviour of the 'worms' responding to different studio/viewer audiences.

On 11 August ABC News reported:

Australians sent more than 75,000 tweets during Sunday night's leaders' debate between Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

The social networking service tracked 31 debate-related keywords and found the hottest topics in debate-related tweets were: energy and climate; the economy; and immigration….

The ABC conducted an experimental Twitter tug-o-war during the leaders' debate, asking people to vote for who they thought was winning using the hashtags #DebateRudd and #DebateAbbott.

More than 500 responses were received; half an hour after the debate ended 72 per cent of respondents said Mr Rudd had won, compared to 28 per cent for Mr Abbott.

That same night Channel 9 News reported:

Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd have faced off in the first leaders' debate of the 2013 election campaign with the prime minister declared the winner, according to Nine Network's 'Worm'. Prime Minister Rudd claimed a significant victory over Opposition Leader Mr Abbott, scoring 59 percent of votes from the live studio audience….

Channel 10 journalist Sandra Sully's live tweets appear to support these assessments:

CLIMATE CHANGE - RUDD SPEAKING 60% #BelieveRudd 40% #BelieveAbbott

AGED CARE - RUDD SPEAKING 58% #BelieveRudd 42% #BelieveAbbott

NBN - ABBOTT SPEAKING 56% #BelieveRudd 44% #BelieveAbbott

TAXES - ABBOTT SPEAKING 54% #BelieveRudd 46% #BelieveAbbott

ASYLUM SEEKERS 54% #BelieveRudd 46% #BelieveAbbott

The next morning 12 August The Sydney Morning Herald explained what many had puzzled over the night before – the behaviour of the Channel 7 worm:

Seven opened its audience meter to all comers, and was taken over by partisans.

Liberal partisans outnumbered Labor two to one. It didn't matter what the subject was, it didn't matter what was said, their response was always the same. When Abbott spoke, Seven's audience loved it by a 2-1 margin. Whatever Rudd said, they opposed it similarly. No swinging voters there…..

The Roy Morgan Research Reactor worm appears to have crashed on the night – perhaps in part because the Liberal Party's Federal Director Brian Loughnane reportedly sent out emails to the party faithful asking them to download and use the mobile app.

The last word must go to a tweeter from Perth WA:

James Williamson  ‏@jimi8117h

If I had to choose, I'd pick Rudd, but I'm going to be spending Sept 7th praying for a giant asteroid to crush us all #debate #lizardwars

Cartoon from 123RF

Australian Federal Election 2013: the howling begins over caretaker period conventions

ABC News 9 August 2013:

The Opposition has lashed out at the Government's decision to continue an ad blitz about its asylum seeker policy, accusing it of trashing the caretaker conventions.

The ad campaign warns asylum seekers they no longer have the option of being settled in Australia if they arrive by boat.

Special Minister of State Mark Dreyfus has given approval for the ads to continue to run in Australia and overseas, despite the election campaign being in full swing…

Shadow attorney-general George Brandis says the Government has broken the "unwritten rules of the Constitution", and committed an "unprecedented and flagrant breach" of the caretaker convention.

He says Opposition Leader Tony Abbott wrote to Mr Dreyfus saying that while the Coalition agreed to most of the proposals, it did not agree to any onshore ads during the election campaign….

Mr Burke says there is a precedent for government advertising to continue during election campaigns.

As an example, he cited a 2004 ad campaign designed to encourage Australians to report signs of terrorism following a bombing near the Australian Embassy in Jakarta.

"On that occasion under the Howard government, the leader of the opposition put forward suggestions. Some of those suggestions were taken up, some were not and the campaign went ahead," Mr Burke said….

Opposition immigration spokesman Scott Morrison says the asylum seeker campaign is a "shameless and desperate" grab for votes….

According to Rupert Murdoch's News.com.au Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's formal response ran thus:

In a letter to the Prime Minister, Mr Abbott made clear he would not give the green light to such a campaign.

"We do not support the continuation of a multimillion-dollar taxpayer-funded campaign aimed at Australian voters, rather than people residing overseas," the Opposition leader wrote.

"If the government wants to stop people getting on boats overseas, then it should advertise overseas. But advertising in Australia, to Australians, in an election campaign is nothing more than a blatant misuse of taxpayer money for political purposes," he said.

"All asylum seeker advertising for Australian audiences and paid for by the taxpayer is opposed and under the caretaker conventions must cease immediately."

By 10 August, Murdoch's The Australian was reporting:

Opposition legal affairs spokesman George Brandis said the caretaker conventions were "part of the Constitution" and "it is unlawful to violate them".

So what are Scott Morrison and George Brandis howling about?

The general definition of the 'caretaker period' is a period which occurs when the House of Representatives expires or is dissolved ahead of a general election or there is a simultaneous dissolution of both the Senate and House ahead of a general election - a double dissolution. The period ends when the incumbent Government has been re‑elected or a new Government has been sworn in.

Practical implementation of this caretaker period is set out as a series of conventions which officially commence when election writs are issued. They are neither strict rules nor law but guidelines and, are not directly enforceable by the courts.

Such conventions do not form part of the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution. 

The first public record of caretaker conventions in Australia is in the form of a letter from the Prime Minister, Robert Menzies, to his ministers at the outset of the 1951 double dissolution elections and The first detailed text of their intent and application was published in 1987 as a special article in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet's Annual Report 1986-87. 

Excerpt from GUIDANCE ON CARETAKER CONVENTIONS DEPARTMENT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET 2013

6.1 Advertising and Information Campaigns

6.1.1 The Department of Finance and Deregulation and PM&C reviews all advertising campaigns at the beginning of the caretaker period and recommends whether those campaigns should continue or be deferred. Bipartisan agreement is sought for campaigns that are to continue. Campaigns that highlight the role of particular Ministers or address issues that are a matter of contention between the parties are normally discontinued. Campaigns that are of an operational nature, such as defence force recruiting campaigns or public health campaigns, usually continue.

So just how much is the O'Farrell Government taking from the wallets of public housing tenants when it takes one quarter of their Commonwealth Clean Energy Supplement?

In April 2013 the NSW Coalition Government began to calculate public housing rent to include the Commonwealth Clean Energy Supplement. It also allowed community housing associations/corporations to similarly adjust their rent calculations.

Premier O’Farrell said revenue needs to be raised by increasing public housing rents because NSW won’t be compensated for the carbon tax “hit” to electricity generators.

According to the NSW Auditor-General in 2012; New South Wales has the largest social housing portfolio in Australia, comprising over 150,000 dwellings. LAHC owns the bulk of these with about 134,000 dwellings valued at around $32 billion.

If one nominally allocates one Clean Energy Supplement payment of $13.50 per fortnight^[1] to each of the 134,000 dwelling owned by the NSW Land and Housing Corporation (LAHC) and totals the 25% of this supplement that the NSW O’Farrell Government takes from the renters of this public housing – then Liberal Party Premier O’Farrell and Nationals Deputy Leader Stoner now extract an estimated $11.7 million annually out of the pockets of predominately old aged and disability pensioners, widows (including war widows), single parents and carers.

In March 2013 the NSW Liberal Party stated that the cost to the State Budget of the carbon tax is expected to be $237 million. So 134,000 low income households will be paying an estimated 4.96%^[2] of the O’Farrell Government’s total expected carbon tax bill for 2013-14.

Or to put it another way, about 5.42% of all 2.4 million NSW households (ABS National Regional Profile: New South Wales 2013) pay almost 5% of the NSW Government's total expected carbon tax bill.

 

If one also nominates one Clean Energy Supplement payment per fortnight to each of the 16,000 dwelling held by community housing – then the not-for-profit housing sector takes another $1.4 million annually. As this sector is unlikely to find that it is directly liable for the carbon tax, one wonders what excuse it will give its low income tenants for so blatantly gouging.

One particular Northern Rivers community housing company collects around $74,000 per annum from its tenants’ fortnightly federal energy supplements.


[1] The $13.50 is a single person's fortnightly payment if they are receiving the aged, disability, widow's or wife's pension or receiving carers payment.

[2] A thank you to Clarrie Rivers for confirming the estimated percentage of public housing renters paying part of the state's expected carbon tax bill.

Australian Federal Election Leaders Debate 6.30pm-7.30pm 11 August 2013 - online links

LEADERS DEBATE 2013 RULES AND INFORMATION

The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will debate the Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott.

Location                National Press Club of Australia, Canberra

Broadcast Time      6:30 pm Sunday 11 August 2013

Duration                1 hour

The debate will be moderated by David Speers, Political Editor Sky News.

The leaders will be questioned by a panel of three (3) senior federal parliamentary journalists:

                               ·         Lyndal Curtis (ABC)

                               ·         Simon Benson (News Limited)

                               ·         Peter Hartcher (Fairfax)

The National Press Club National Room is being converted to a television studio for this event.

There will be a limited live audience made up of representatives of the political parties, the federal parliamentary press gallery and the National Press Club ONLY.

DEBATE RULES HERE

Roy Morgan Research Debate Reactor ‘Worm’ here for the duration of the leaders debate.

Leader Debate live online at ABC News24 here.

Leaders Debate live on ABC Radio Australia online here.

The Christian Democrats tread a strange path in the 2013 federal election campaign

Two banners from the timeline of the Fred Nile - Official Christian Democratic Party Facebook account:

Flow chart for any number of Liberal-Nationals Coalition election campaign promises in 2013

Standard right wing flow chart for any number of Liberal-Nationals Coalition election campaign promises: