Below average rainfall likely across Northern Rivers region January-March 2014

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

December catchment conditions

December rainfall was below to very much below average for most of Queensland and New South Wales. Parts of southwestern New South Wales and northern Victoria recorded above average December rainfall. The Murray-Darling Basin recorded only 21.3 mm of rain, the driest December since 2001. More information about December weather and climate conditions can be found in the climate summaries for Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory.

Near median December streamflows were recorded at 23 of the 69 locations and low streamflows at 45 locations. High December streamflow was recorded only at Swanfels, located in the Condamine-Culgoa basin in southern Queensland.

Streamflow forecasts for January to March

Near median and low streamflows for the January to March forecast period are more likely at 25 and 18 locations respectively. High flows are forecast to be more likely only at Rocks Crossing, located in the Manning basin in northern New South Wales. The forecast is not issued due to very low skill scores or missing streamflow data at 25 locations mainly in Queensland, Northern Territory and New South Wales.

The tropical Pacific has remained neutral with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since mid-2012, with all the main ENSO indicators remaining well within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the persistence of this neutral ENSO phase through at least the austral autumn. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. It typically does not influence the Australian climate from December to April.

The chances of exceeding median rainfall during the January to March period are 30 to 40% over most of Queensland, parts of the eastern Northern Territory, most of New South Wales and northeastern Victoria. In other words, the chances of below average rainfall are 60 to 70% over these areas. Conversely, the chance of exceeding median rainfall is greater than 60% over parts of western Western Australia and most of Tasmania. The chance of receiving a wetter or drier than normal January to March period is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) over the remainder of the country.