It
would appear there is some likelihood that the next three calendar
months will see temperatures rise above median and a 60 per cent
chance of an increase in median rainfall across New South Wales generally.
With the predicted above median
rainfall occurring inland as far as Tibooburra & Broken Hill and along the length of the coastal zone.
The Northern NSW section of this coast zone - from Clarence Valley to
Tweed Shire and inland as far as Lismore City - having a 60 to 74 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall.
Brief
Outline
Australian
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM),
retrieved 14 March 2022:
Climate
outlook overview
Issued:
10 March 2022
April
to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of northern
and eastern Australia, with small areas of south-west WA and western
Tasmania likely to be below median. Elsewhere, there are roughly
equal chances of above or below median rainfall.
April
to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for
western, northern and south-eastern parts of Australia. Elsewhere,
there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days.
Minimum
temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median
across virtually all of Australia.
Climate
influences include the weakening La Niña in the Pacific Ocean.
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La
Niña remains active in the tropical Pacific. Outlooks indicate the
La Niña is likely to end around mid-autumn 2022, with a return to
neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions. While this La
Niña event is weakening, it is expected to continue to contribute to
the wetter than median outlooks for parts of eastern Australia.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BOM: Median rainfall April-June (1981-2018)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wetter
April to June likely for northern and eastern Australia
Issued:
10 March 2022
April
to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of the NT,
Queensland, south-east SA, and most of NSW (chance of exceeding
median is greater than 60%). Some small areas of south-west WA and
western Tasmania are likely to be below median (chance of exceeding
median is less than 40%). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances
of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is
close to 50%).
There
is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of
historical records) for April to June across the northern half of the
NT, northern and western Queensland and small areas of western and
coastal NSW (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance). However, it should
be noted that seasonal rainfall at this time of the year is starting
to decrease, so unusually high rainfall for these areas isn't as high
as recent months.
While
the April outlook reflects the three-month outlook, the May outlook
suggests below median rainfall is likely for south-western Australia,
and western Tasmania, and only a small part of central Queensland is
likely to be above median.
Past
accuracy for April to June rainfall is moderate to high for most
areas of Australia, with low to very low accuracy across much of
eastern WA, northern and western SA, the central NT, western Victoria
and southern Tasmania.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Warmer
April to June days and nights for most areas
Issued:
10 March 2022
April
to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for most
of WA, the northern and central NT, Queensland, northern and southern
NSW, south-east SA, Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance).
Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days
(chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
There
is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the
top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of WA, the
northern and central NT, most of Queensland except the far south,
most of Victoria, and Tasmania (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance),
with the highest chances in the tropical north, and Tasmania.
Minimum
temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median
almost Australia wide (chances are greater than 60%), with much of
northern and eastern Australia very likely (chances are greater than
80%).
There
is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the
top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of
Australia except much of southern WA and western SA (1.5 to 4.0 times
the usual chance). The highest likelihoods are across far northern
Australia and Tasmania.
Past
accuracy for April to June maximum temperatures is high to very high
for almost all of Australia, with moderate accuracy in a band
stretching through central WA and across most of SA. For minimum
temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across northern
Australia, grading to low to very low accuracy across southern parts
of the mainland. Tasmania has moderate accuracy in the south, with
low accuracy in the north.
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Historical
median and mean rainfall Lismore,
Ballina,
and Grafton
NSW for April, May and June.
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