On 17 March 2024 Brazil's coastal capital Rio de Janeiro registered a record breaking city maximum apparent temperature of 62.3°C or 114.4°F

 

On Sunday 17 March 2024 the western section of the capital Rio De Janeiro recorded an ambient air temperature of 42°C or 107.6°F. However, Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) registered a record breaking city maximum apparent temperature of 62.3°C or 114.4°F.

In November 2023 the small city of Araçuaí hit 44.8°C or 112.6°F, according INMET. With an apparent temperature of 58.5°C or 137°F.

This is what INMET satellite infrared temperature mapping of Brazil looked like at different points on Sunday, 17 March 2024.

On 17 March 2024 Australia's capital Canberra recorded a maximum ambient air temperature of 16.6°C or 61.88°F, with an apparent temp of 15.3°C or 59.54°F.

Eight days out from the 21 May 2022 federal general election and much of the NSW Northern Rivers region is on flood watch again

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):

Flood Watch for the Northern Rivers and Central West

Issued at 12:21 pm EST on Thursday 12 May 2022

Flood Watch Number: 3

MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN RIVERS AND CENTRAL WEST FROM THURSDAY

A trough over western inland New South Wales will generate further moderate to heavy rain in many areas of the Central West on Thursday. This may cause minor flooding along the Castlereagh, Macquarie and Bell Rivers from Thursday night.

* Reissue to include Castlereagh *

River level rises have been observed from recent moderate rainfall in the Northern Rivers. Further moderate showers expected on Thursday may see river levels rise to minor flood levels.

Renewed minor flooding is also possible along the Bogan River where a flood warning is current.

The Bureau is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue further catchment specific warnings if and when required.

Catchment soil moisture is average.

The weather system is expected to cause flooding for the catchments listed. Flood Classes (minor, moderate, major) are only defined for catchments where the Bureau provides a flood warning service.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Tweed and Rouse Rivers - minor flooding 

Brunswick River and Marshalls Creek - minor flooding

Wilsons River - minor flooding

Richmond River - minor flooding

Castlereagh River - minor flooding

Orange, Molong and Bell River - minor flooding

Turon and Macquarie Rivers to Burrendong Dam - minor flooding

Macquarie River d/s Burrendong Dam - minor flooding

Flood warnings are current for the Culgoa, Bokhara, Bogan, Paroo and Warrego Rivers.

For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/

For the latest rainfall and weather forecasts see www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood

 [my yellow highlighting]

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There is a chance of above median rainfall across much of the continent from 14 May 2022 to September 2022.

According to BOM long range forecasting there is also a 50-60% chance of the Page and Richmond electorates in the Northern Rivers region being “unusually wet” between 14 to 27 May 2022.

Stream Flow Forecast

Click on image to enlarge

Climate outlook overview

Issued: 5 May 2022

Winter (June to August) rainfall is likely to be above median for most of Australia, except south-western Australia, the south-east coast, and southern Tasmania which have roughly equal chances of being above or below median.

June to August maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for northern, south-western, and south-eastern parts of Australia, but below median for broad areas of inland southern and central Australia.

Minimum temperatures for June to August are very likely to be warmer than median across almost all of Australia.

The weakening La Niña, the chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and other localised drivers are likely to be influencing this outlook.

Latest Climate Driver Update, 10 May 2022:

La Niña maintains strength

The 2021–22 La Niña event continues in the tropical Pacific, with little change in strength in the past few weeks.

Several indicators of La Niña, including tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), have maintained or slightly increased their strength over the past fortnight. However, beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific, waters have warmed closer to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels.

Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate a return to neutral ENSO by the early southern hemisphere winter. Only one of seven models continues La Niña conditions through the southern winter. La Niña conditions increase the chances of above average rainfall for much of eastern Australia, while neutral ENSO has little influence on rainfall patterns.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. All climate model outlooks surveyed suggest a negative IOD may develop in the coming months. While model outlooks have low accuracy at this time of year and hence some caution should be taken with IOD outlooks beyond May, there is strong forecast consistency across international models. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia. It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive and is forecast to remain positive for the coming four weeks. During autumn SAM typically has a weaker influence on Australian rainfall, but as we approach winter, positive SAM often has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently strengthened in the western Indian Ocean. Most climate models indicate the MJO will briefly weaken, and then re-strengthen again later this week in the Maritime Continent or western Pacific region. Should the MJO re-strength in the Maritime Continent region, it can enhance rainfall in north-eastern Australia. It also typically increases cloudiness to Australia's north.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. [my yellow highlighting]

NSW predicted rainfall over April, May and June 2022

It would appear there is some likelihood that the next three calendar months will see temperatures rise above median and a 60 per cent chance of an increase in median rainfall across New South Wales generally.

With the predicted above median rainfall occurring inland as far as Tibooburra & Broken Hill and along the length of the coastal zone. 

The Northern NSW section of this coast zone - from Clarence Valley  to Tweed Shire and inland as far as Lismore City - having a 60 to 74 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall.

Brief Outline

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), retrieved 14 March 2022:

Climate outlook overview

Issued: 10 March 2022

April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of northern and eastern Australia, with small areas of south-west WA and western Tasmania likely to be below median. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall.

April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for western, northern and south-eastern parts of Australia. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days.

Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median across virtually all of Australia.

Climate influences include the weakening La Niña in the Pacific Ocean.

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La Niña remains active in the tropical Pacific. Outlooks indicate the La Niña is likely to end around mid-autumn 2022, with a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions. While this La Niña event is weakening, it is expected to continue to contribute to the wetter than median outlooks for parts of eastern Australia.

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BOM: Median rainfall April-June (1981-2018) 

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Wetter April to June likely for northern and eastern Australia

Issued: 10 March 2022

April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of the NT, Queensland, south-east SA, and most of NSW (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Some small areas of south-west WA and western Tasmania are likely to be below median (chance of exceeding median is less than 40%). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June across the northern half of the NT, northern and western Queensland and small areas of western and coastal NSW (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance). However, it should be noted that seasonal rainfall at this time of the year is starting to decrease, so unusually high rainfall for these areas isn't as high as recent months.

While the April outlook reflects the three-month outlook, the May outlook suggests below median rainfall is likely for south-western Australia, and western Tasmania, and only a small part of central Queensland is likely to be above median.

Past accuracy for April to June rainfall is moderate to high for most areas of Australia, with low to very low accuracy across much of eastern WA, northern and western SA, the central NT, western Victoria and southern Tasmania.

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Warmer April to June days and nights for most areas

Issued: 10 March 2022

April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for most of WA, the northern and central NT, Queensland, northern and southern NSW, south-east SA, Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of WA, the northern and central NT, most of Queensland except the far south, most of Victoria, and Tasmania (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance), with the highest chances in the tropical north, and Tasmania.

Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median almost Australia wide (chances are greater than 60%), with much of northern and eastern Australia very likely (chances are greater than 80%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of Australia except much of southern WA and western SA (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance). The highest likelihoods are across far northern Australia and Tasmania.

Past accuracy for April to June maximum temperatures is high to very high for almost all of Australia, with moderate accuracy in a band stretching through central WA and across most of SA. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across northern Australia, grading to low to very low accuracy across southern parts of the mainland. Tasmania has moderate accuracy in the south, with low accuracy in the north.

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Historical median and mean rainfall Lismore, Ballina, and Grafton NSW for April, May and June.

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A brief look at projections and forecasts for six aspects of the Australian economy in 2021-22 & 2022-23

 

With only a seventeen-week window remaining in which Prime Minister Scott Morrison can first present an early Budget 2022-23 to the Australian Parliament, then dissolve said Parliament, before going on to call a federal general election and run a formal election campaign; sometime soon Coalition Government MPs and senators will have to begin addressing economic issues when out and about in their electorates. 

So perhaps it is time to start looking at projections and forecasts for 2022 made by government departments, financial institutions and industry - before local electioneering hype is raised to such a pitch that facts and considered opinion get lost in the political mêlée. 

Here are six aspects of economic activity which always get a mention in the NSW Northern Rivers region at some time in an election cycle.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

ABC News, 18 January 2022:

Consumer confidence slumps

The Omicron COVID-19 variant has hit consumer confidence, according to ANZ and Roy Morgan.

Their measure of consumer confidence fell 7.6 per cent last week to 97.9, the lowest level since October 2020, as Omicron surged across Australia and facilities came under immense strain.

That was lower than during last year's lockdowns when the Delta variant surged.

All the survey's subindices fell including current and future financial conditions.

Nearly one in five respondents expected to be worse off by this time next year.

ANZ head of Australian Economics, David Plank, said the index level of 97.9 was the weakest January result since 1992, when the Australian economy was experiencing rising unemployment.

"The result highlights the concerns about COVID have the potential to significantly impact the economy if they linger," he said.

ANZ said spending had continued to fall because of the spread of Omicron, with a drop of 27 per cent over the first half of January, compared to the first half of December.

Spending was also lower on eating out.

Omicron hit to economy

CBA credit and debit card data indicated that spending has dropped sharply on services over the past few weeks.

Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird said the large number of COVID-19 cases is hurting the employment market, with an estimated 1 million people in isolation, and reduced spending on goods and services.

That means many businesses have been forced to close, or reduce capacity and opening hours.

He has slashed his growth forecast for the first quarter of 2022 from 2.3 per cent to just 1 per cent.

"The next few months are without a shred of doubt going to be difficult and testing for the economy," Mr Aird said.

"Our working assumption is that more policy support will be forthcoming, particularly stimulus that is targeted towards businesses most adversely impacted by the surge in COVID cases and isolation requirements."

Mr Aird said he expected the economy to snap back in the second quarter of 2022.

FINANCE

Australian Government General Government Sector Monthly Financial Statements November 2021, 24 December 2021:

KEY POINTS

• The Monthly Financial Statements for November 2021 report the budget position against the expected monthly profile for the 2021-22 financial year through to 30 November 2021, based on the 2021-22 Budget estimates published in May 2021.

• The 2021-22 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) was released on Thursday, 16 December 2021. Commencing with the December 2021 monthly financial statements, which will be released in January 2022, the budget position will be reported against the expected monthly profile based on the updated estimates outlined in the 2021-22 MYEFO.

• The November 2021 year to date results include the impact of the Australian Government’s response to COVID-19.

• The underlying cash balance for the 2021-22 financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $41.8 billion against the Budget profile deficit of $55.9 billion.

• The fiscal balance for the 2021-22 financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $36.0 billion against the Budget profile deficit of $55.2 billion.

Monthly results are generally volatile due to timing differences between revenue and receipts, and expenses and payments. Care needs to be taken when comparing monthly or cumulative data across years and to full-year estimates, as revenue and receipts and expenses and payments vary from month to month.

FISCAL OUTCOMES

Underlying Cash Balance

The underlying cash balance for the financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $41.8 billion, which is $14.1 billion lower than the 2021-22 Budget profile deficit of $55.9 billion.

• Receipts

Total receipts were $34.3 billion higher than the 2021-22 Budget profile.

• Payments

Total payments were $20.2 billion higher than the 2021-22 Budget profile.

Net Operating Balance

The net operating balance for the financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $35.5 billion, which is $17.8 billion lower than the 2021-22 Budget profile deficit of $53.4 billion. The difference results from higher than expected revenue, partially offset by higher than expected expenses.

Fiscal Balance

The fiscal balance for the financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $36.0 billion, which is $19.3 billion lower than the 2021-22 Budget profile deficit of $55.2 billion. The difference results from higher than expected revenue and lower than expected net capital investment, partially offset by higher expenses.

Assets and Liabilities

As at 30 November 2021:

• net worth is negative $743.5 billion;

• net debt is $607.3 billion; and

• net financial liabilities are $987.2 billion.

MINING SECTOR

Office of the Chief Economist, Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2021, excerpt:

Australia’s resource and energy exports are estimated to reach a record $379 billion in 2021–22, up from $310 billion in 2020–21. In 2022–23, export earnings are then forecast to decline back to $311 billion, as commodity prices settle lower.

The global recovery remains underway, sustained by the ongoing rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and continued fiscal and monetary support across major economies. However, new outbreaks (and variants) of the pandemic across many regions are inhibiting a full global recovery, as are supply chain blockages — including shortages of semi-conductor chips and of shipping containers in some locations.

China’s power shortages have been a dominant influence on global resource and energy commodity prices in recent months. As a major global metal refiner, the power shortages have seen Chinese (base and ferrous) metal output cut back. China’s property sector has slowed noticeably since our last report, cutting metal usage. However, the Chinese authorities now appear to be taking steps to stabilise the sector.

New policy developments are also impacting the global resources and energy sector. In October, China’s government instructed the nation’s coal miners to lift output and imposed a thermal coal price cap, following critical shortages. In November, the US Congress passed a US$1.2 trillion infrastructure program, which will have a stimulatory effect on economic growth domestically and have flow-on effects offshore.

A stronger outlook for base metals and coal is expected to more than offset the impact on export earnings of the downward adjustment we have made to our iron ore price forecasts. Lithium exports are expected to overtake zinc exports in 2022–23 as car makers race to capture the electric vehicle market.

With energy inventories lower than normal, the severity of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere winter will have a critical influence on energy markets in the short term. The La Niña weather pattern will likely impact on the demand and supply for coal and other energy products.

The risks to the record export earnings forecast for 2021–22 are skewed to the downside. They include a much faster than expected decline in coal prices. There is also potential for a further rise in global inflation and a risk of higher interest rates in response. New, vaccine-resistant strains of the coronavirus, and the risk of delays in the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines to the world’s population, could also pose significant risks.

AGRICULTURE

Dept. of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Outlook for Crops, excerpt:

Value of crop production to reach record high in 2021–22

The gross value of crop production is forecast to reach a record $43 billion in 2021–22, driven by record winter crop production and high world grain and oilseed prices. Favourable seasonal conditions across all winter cropping regions, particularly in New South Wales and Western Australia (the two biggest winter crop–producing states) are forecast to result in above average to significantly above average yields. A favourable outlook for increased summer crop production is also contributing to the forecast record. The gross value of all major crop commodities is forecast to reach a record level:

• wheat – $11.5 billion (record high)

• barley – $3.4 billion (record high)

• canola – $5.2 billion (record high)

• cotton – $3.9 billion (record high)

• horticulture – $12.5 billion (second highest on record)

Heavy November rainfall has caused flooding in northern and central west New South Wales resulting in production losses for some producers. Although this is not expected to significantly affect tonnage produced, it will affect the value because of a downgrade in quality. Continued high rainfall in December will cause further damage and more total crop losses if crops cannot be harvested.

In other areas across the eastern states and South Australia, wet conditions during harvest and reduced soil nutrient levels caused by 2 years of high yields could reduce grain and oilseeds quality compared with recent years. The extent of these impacts would differ from paddock-to-paddock, and downgrades of wheat protein levels or improvements in the oil content of canola crops could affect the prices that growers receive.

Despite concerns about a resurgence in mice numbers, increased baiting on farms during winter and spring has reduced mice populations in affected regions, and there have been no reports of significant damage to date. They still remain a risk for summer crops in parts of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Farm profits could be reduced by high baiting and cleaning costs if mouse numbers remain elevated during summer.

Figure 1.1 Gross value of crop production, 1971–72 to 2021–22

f ABARES forecast.

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Dept. of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Economic overview: December quarter 2021, excerpt:

Exchange rate to remain at current levels

In 2021–22, the Australian exchange rate is assumed to average US74 cents – 1 cent lower than the average for 2020–21. Downward pressure on the exchange rate from falling iron ore prices is expected to be balanced by upward pressure from strengthening economic activity and steep increases in coal and natural gas prices.

Overseas interest rates may move higher over 2022, adding to downward pressure on the Australian dollar if current domestic monetary policy settings remain. Stronger than expected inflation overseas could prompt central banks to bring forward planned rate rises. Australian interest rates are not expected to be lifted in 2021–22. The Reserve Bank of Australia has clearly signalled it will not raise rates unless inflation is sustained in the target range (core inflation of 2 to 3%) and wages growth is ‘materially higher’ than it is at present. Wages growth in Australia remains at less than half the average rate recorded between 2000 and 2010, despite relatively low unemployment.

TOURISM

Do not travel to Australia......

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/australia-travel-advisory.html

https://www.safetravel.govt.nz/australia

Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Commonwealth of Australia, 7 January 2022:

Notice on China-bound foreign passengers' application of health code Jan-07-2022）

2022-01-07 16:05

In order to reduce cross-border transmission of Covid-19, especially considering the latest developments of COVID-19 in Australia, the Embassy and Consulate-Generals of China have made major changes on the application procedures. Passengers who travel on and after 17 January, 2022 are kindly required to read and follow instructions below....

Tourism Australia, International Visitor Survey results September 2021:

Key results

Key results for the year ending September 2021 include:

• international visitor numbers fell by 98.2% to 155,469

• international visitor spend was down 97.1% to $1.3 billion

• visitor nights were down 96.2% to 10.4 million.

Australia’s top 5 markets

Australia’s top 5 international visitor markets saw significant losses:

• Chinese visitor numbers fell 99.7%. This was a loss of 1.3 million visitors. Spend fell 99.4% or $12.2 billion.

• New Zealand visitor numbers fell 93.0%. This was a loss of 1.2 million visitors. Spend fell 88.6% or $2.3 billion. New Zealand saw the smallest losses of all markets, recording 89,000 visitors. This was more than half (57%) of all visitors to Australia for the year ending September 2021. This was due to a trans-Tasman bubble opening between the 2 countries during the June quarter 2021.

• United States of America visitor numbers fell 98.9%. This was a loss of 763,000 visitors. Spend fell 96.4% or $3.9 billion.

• United Kingdom visitor numbers fell 98.9%. This was a loss of 662,000 visitors. Spend fell 96.3% or $3.2 billion.

• Japanese visitor numbers fell 99.7%. This was a loss of 454,000 visitors. Spend fell 99.3% or $2.1 billion.

Tourism losses due to COVID-19

Total international and domestic tourism losses since the start of the pandemic in March 2020 reached $128.3 billion.

International tourism saw losses of $62.5 billion for March 2020 to September 2021. This was due to international border closures caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Over the same period, there were further losses of:

• $49.8 billion from domestic overnight travel

• $16.0 billion from domestic day travel.

Note: The only federal government tourism recovery scenarios are dated 2020 and can be found at Australian Trade and Investment Commission, Tourism Research Australia, Tourism Recovery Scenarios.

CLIMATE

Australian climate variability & change - Time series graphs

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Australian climate variability & change - Trend maps

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Australian Government Dept. of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: June 2021, Incorporating emissions from the NEM up to September 2021, excepts:

On a quarterly basis, national emission levels for the June quarter 2021 increased 0.4% or 0.5 Mt CO2-e on the previous quarter in trend terms. The trend result for the June quarter 2021 reflects small increases across all sectors of the inventory with the exception of the electricity sector which was lower by 0.2% on the March quarter 2021….

On an annual basis, the consumption-based inventory increased 0.4% or 1.8 Mt CO2-e to 420.8 Mt CO2-e in the year to June 2021….

National emissions are preliminarily estimated to be 500 Mt CO2-e in the year to September 2021.

Long term sectoral trends

The most important sectoral drivers of Australia’s long-term emissions trend have been:

• Electricity – where emissions have fallen by 22.6% since the year to June 2009 as renewables have displaced coal as a fuel source, reversing the long term increases experienced in earlier

years;

• Stationary energy (excluding electricity) – which has shown the largest growth of any sector in percentage terms since 1990. Emissions have increased 50.3% or 33.3 Mt CO2-e driven, in particular, by recent growth in the export of LNG;

• Transport – where emissions have increased 48.6% or 29.8 Mt CO2-e since 1990, despite recent volatility due to the impacts of the COVID pandemic;

• Fugitives – where emissions have increased 21.3% or 8.6 Mt CO2-e since 1990. Emissions were relatively stable until 2012 but have increased strongly as a result of the growth of the LNG industry;

• Agriculture – where emissions have declined by 18.5% or 17.0 Mt CO2-e since 1990, in line with declining cattle and sheep populations; and,

• Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) – where emissions have decreased by the largest margin of any sector since 1990 (112.6% or 218.1 Mt CO2-e) due to reductions in land clearing and native forest harvesting, increases in plantations and native vegetation, and improvements in soil carbon.