Employee households recorded the strongest quarterly and annual cost of living rises due to increases in mortgage interest charges

 

“Employee households recorded the strongest quarterly and annual rises due to increases in Mortgage interest charges.” [ABS, Selected Living Cost Indexes, Australia: Living Cost Indexes (LCIs) measures the price change of goods and services and its effect on living expenses of selected household types, Reference period September 2023]

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 1 November 2023, excerpt:

A significant difference between the Living Cost Indexes and the CPI is that the Living Cost Indexes include mortgage interest charges rather than the cost of building new dwellings.

Employee households were most impacted by rising mortgage interest charges, which are a larger part of their spending than for other household types.

“Mortgage interest charges rose 9.3 per cent following a 9.8 per cent rise in the June 2023 quarter. While the Reserve Bank of Australia has not increased the cash rate since July 2023, previous interest rate increases and the rollover of some expired fixed-rate to higher-rate variable mortgages resulted in another strong rise this quarter,” Ms Marquardt said.

Living costs for each of the three indexes for households whose main source of income is government payments (age pensioner, other government transfer recipient, and pensioner and beneficiary households) increased more slowly than the CPI in September quarter. The primary reason for this was a fall in their Housing costs for the quarter following the introduction of the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates and changes to Commonwealth Rent Assistance. The Energy Bill Relief Fund reduced electricity bills for all households in Brisbane and Perth, and for households eligible for electricity concessions in the remaining capital cities.

From 20 September 2023, the maximum rate available for Commonwealth Rent Assistance increased by 15 per cent on top of the CPI indexation that applies twice a year, reducing out of pocket expenses for eligible households. Given the timing of these changes, the September quarter results show only a partial impact of the Commonwealth Rent Assistance changes with further impacts to come through in the December 2023 quarter.

Living costs rising fastest for employee households

Employee households also recorded the largest annual rise in living costs of all household types with a 9.0 per cent increase, down from a peak of 9.6 per cent in the June 2023 quarter.

Increasing interest rates over the year have contributed to annual living cost rises ranging from 5.3 per cent to 9.0 per cent for different household types. Most households recorded higher rises than the 5.4 per cent annual increase in the CPI.

Higher automotive fuel prices and insurance premiums also contributed to increases in annual living costs for all household types.

After employee households, other government transfer recipients recorded the next largest annual rise in living costs through to September 2023.

“Rents make up a higher proportion of spending for these households compared to other household types. Rental prices have increased over the last year reflecting strong demand and low vacancy rates across the country,” Ms Marquardt said.

Australia's Misery Index might not be as high as during the Global Financial Crisis or the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic but it's at a less than comfortable level in 2023

At its meeting on 6 June 2023 the Reserve Bank of Australia Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent.

Banks and other financial institutions are adjusting their mortgage & loan investment rates upwards again and the ABS Cost Price Index (CPI) remains stubbornly high for the category labelled Food & non-alcoholic beverages.

This was the twelfth cash rate rise in the thirteen months from 4 May 2022 to 7 June 2023.

The inflation rate is hovering at 7.0, while everyone hopes that by the end of June it will stand at 6.25.

The fact that it appears inflationary pressures might still be with us in 2024 doesn’t make for happy little Vegemites in the average Australian household.

This general dark mood can be measured using the Misery Index. An economic concept created in the1960s by Okun and further refined by Barro and Hanke.

It is based on the assumption that:

1) a higher cash rate/interest rate increases the cost of borrowing;

2) which in turn drives up the cost price index for essential goods services;

3) when these factors combine with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (rate calculated at times two if you are a Hanke purist); and

4) there is slower/lower growth in the nation’s gross domestic product;

5) this combination goes on to create economic and social costs – or misery – for a country.

To establish where a country is on the Misery Index basically one adds the current reserve bank cash rate, cost price index & seasonally adjusted unemployment figures together and then divides that number by the year end real gross domestic product per capita to produce the Index score.

In Australia’s case the Misery Index according to Professor Guay Lim and Associate Professor Sam Tsiaplias (University of Melbourne) – writing in March 2023 – came in at a whopping 16.3 per cent in third quarter of 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis and 13.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2022, just as the global pandemic really began to bite.

The Misery Index fell sharply in in the second quarter of 2021 but began to climb again over the following months reaching 9.9 per cent in December.

The quarterly Economic Misery Index since 2000. Recent high inflation and high interest rates have caused a rapid rise in the index. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Graph: University of Melbourne, Pursuit, “WHAT WE CAN EXPECT FROM THE 2023 ECONOMIC ‘MISERY INDEX’ ”, March 2023

By 2022 the annual economic misery index was at 9.2 per cent.

Unfortunately the Misery Index is not currently budging by much. In the first two weeks of this month, June 2023, it would seem that our quota of misery is somewhere between 9.0 and 9.11 per cent.

Columnist Van Badham writing in The Guardian on 9 June 2023 had this to say:

Australian households with the average $600,000 mortgage have been asked to find a spare $17,000 among the couch cushions since the RBA began its lifting-rates-a-thon last May.

There’s rising costs of other expenses, such as transport. The Australian Automobile Association calculated the average cost of running a car in this country went up $28.31 a week in the March quarter; in Brisbane and Melbourne, it went up $34. With associated automotive costs, using a car in Sydney now averages $510 a week.

Meanwhile, in regional Victoria, one food bank is shipping 40 tonnes of food every day to help struggling families.

Why are the price rises happening? International research conducted by the OECD concluded “corporate profits contributed far more to Australia’s rise in inflation through the past year than from wages and other employee costs”. There’s been similar analysis from the European Central Bank. The Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury disagree, I guess because the OECD is led by notorious communist Mathias Cormann.

The RBA insists that the pay packets of Australian workers have magically, secretly swelled, and this is driving inflation – even though, as Australian economist Stephen Koukoulas has said, “real unit labour costs only rose 0.1% in the March quarter and 1% over the course of the year”.

And how is it possible wages are inflicting such terrible damage when the ACTU could observe major local employers are enjoying profits at Scrooge McDuck levels? The latest half-yearly statements had Ampol bathing in $440m, Coles $616m, Qantas $1.4bn … and the Commonwealth Bank taking a swim in the gold coins pool at a depth of $5.15bn.

Philip Lowe is the RBA governor. Although he has a whole bank board and a coterie of senior mandarins alongside him making rate rise decisions, he is certainly to blame for public statements that imply “workers pay to solve inflation they didn’t cause”, to quote (yet another) economist Jim Stanford.

The theory for the rises is neoliberal orthodoxy; apply economic pressure to cause unemployment, and make those who retain their jobs live in such valid terror of the burning tyre-pit hell that is Centrelink that they won’t make pay demands and therefore won’t drive “wage price” inflation.

Lowe has generously suggested that those households struggling to keep up with rising mortgages – 27.8% of whom are now at risk of mortgage stress – to just “pick up more work”. This is Schrödinger’s employment policy, where the RBA advocates for and against employment at the same time, while you place a box on your head and scream at your ballooning mortgage repayments. An earlier Lowe suggestion was that those struggling with exploding rents should magic up some flatmates or move back to a “home” that may or may not exist.

You, Australian, are responsible for your own misery. But that means you’re responsible for your own happiness, right?

So while you’re forced to cut spending, alleviate supermarket blues by performing a funky dance in the canned veg section the inevitable moment a Katy Perry song comes over the PA. Similarly, suppressing an instinct to ask for the wages you need to meet your costs can be a lot less painful if you hum your favourite 80s sitcom themes at work.

Automotive costs might force you into long and difficult walks to overcrowded, underfunded public transport, so maybe commute in a clown suit. If you’re facing record rent rises, you could consider reciting beautifully sad poems from the nearest window and lure flatmates to you with your tender pain.

History suggests there are alternatives, but demands for rent freezes and price controls are unconstitutional. Referendums to allow government economic intervention of this kind were defeated in 1948 and 1973. Faced with inflationary challenges in the 1950s, though, the Liberal government of Robert Menzies addressed the problem by raising taxes on the rich.

Sadly, the Australian people voted Scott Morrison into power in 2019 on a promise to implement the stage-three tax cuts, and then a promise by Labor to keep these cuts on the books arguably convinced enough swing voters over the electoral line.

There is no help coming for Australians from the RBA. Perhaps we should ask ourselves how much of this misery we might have power over, after all.

Climate change, distant war & a continuing global pandemic are all impacting on household budgets and business in Australia right now

With La Niña conditions expected to continue above average rainfall over Winter months, higher commercial and residential electricity prices to be reflected in quarterly bills sometime after 1 July 2022, petrol prices at the pump making life harder for small business and households alike, food prices rapidly rising and the loss of commercial passenger flights to Lismore and Grafton airports with a significant reduction in flights to Ballina, Northern Rivers residents are going to have to dig a little deeper to find that fortitude the region’s communities are known for.

BACKGROUND

ANZ Research, Agricultural Insight, 31 May 2022. “Global Food Crisis To Worsen”, exceprt:

Bringing it home

Food shortages are expected to worsen as climatic issues, energy shortages, the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine all impact the world’s ability to produce sufficient food. China appears to be one step ahead of the rest of the world in terms of securing additional food supplies. Their policy to increase their reserves of imported products is now serving them well as other countries scramble to import product at inflated prices.

High global food prices will cause hunger in developing nations and erode wealth globally, as it will continue to underpin inflation. Food-exporting nations like Australia and New Zealand may continue to benefit in a net sense from high commodity prices, but it’s hard going for lower-income earners. In addition, as global prices become too expensive, demand will fall, as consumers’ ability to purchase higher-value proteins such as dairy products and red meats is reduced. Demand for basic foodstuffs such as grains is not expected to wane to the same extent – people have to eat.

Therefore the world will need to wait for global supply to increase before these markets rebalance and prices temper.

It’s also worth noting that high food prices are not conducive to geopolitical stability. Hunger induces migration and topples governments. The food crisis is another factor to add to the growing list of potential geopolitical risks as the world tentatively emerges from the shadow of COVID-19. [my yellow highlighting]

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Consumer Priece Index: March Quarter 2022, 27 April 2022:

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% this quarter.

• Over the twelve months to the March 2022 quarter, the CPI rose 5.1%.

• The most significant price rises were New dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+5.7%) and Automotive fuel (+11.0%)….

Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 2.8% since the previous December 2021 quarter and 4.3% since March Quarter 2021. Health prices also rose 2.3% since the previous quarter and 3.5% since March Quarter 2021. Education prices went up by 4.5% since the previous quarter and 4.7% since March Quarter 2021. Housing prices rose by 2.4% from the previous quarter and 6.7% since last year’s March quarter. While Transport prices rose 4.2% since the previous quarter and a whopping 13.7% since last year’s March quarter.

With the exception of Clothing and footwear every CPI benchmark rose since the previous quarter.

The Guardian, 1 June 2022:

Australia is set for its third bumper season of crops in a row, but the increased production will probably bring little relief at the cash register as rising global demand pushes prices skyward.

Australian farmers will plant an area almost the size of England this winter as they try to take advantage of soaring global food prices and a third year of good rains.

The quality of production, though, may be hit by waterlogged fields and reduced fertiliser use as those costs surge, according to Rabobank. Local manufacturers, too, say they’re under strain as raw material and other prices climb and not all of the increases can be passed on.

This winter, farmers will plant a record 23.83m hectares, up 1% on last year, and just shy of England’s 24.36m total area, the bank said in its Winter Crop Outlook. That tally is also 11% more than the five-year average, with wheat plantings up 1.4% and canola, an oilseed, up by 20.9%. Plantings of barley, oats and pulses have dropped…..

Too much rain, though, has forced some farmers to delay or even replant crops – including three plantings of canola in some parts of New South Wales, Voznesenski said.

Other challenges include higher costs for diesel and agrochemicals from pesticides to fertilisers. And while prices have been hitting record levels globally, limited export capacity has hindered exports, meaning farmers have missed out on some of the best prices, he said.

However, Tanya Barden, chief executive of the Food & Grocery Council, said local food manufacturers hadn’t seen much benefit. They were struggling from unprecedented steepening prices for all manner of inputs, from wheat to energy and freight and packaging costs.

“Input costs had risen by 50% over the last decade, and so profitability has dropped from $8bn [a year] to $5bn, and capital investment stagnated,” Barden said. “Industry now is not in a position where it’s able to keep absorbing all these massive additional levels of cost increases.”

While grocery food prices rose 5.3% in the year to March, according to ABS data, they rose 4% in the previous three months alone, she said.

With the full impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Covid-related disruptions in China still to be felt, it was likely food price inflation would quicken in this and coming quarters, she said.

A separate report by ANZ on Tuesday, meanwhile, argued the world faced a “prolonged global food crisis” caused by lost exports from Russia and Ukraine, two of the biggest exporters…..

Susan Kilsby, an agriculture economist with ANZ, said food inflation is going to be an issue that will “plague Australia and most other countries” well into 2023.

“Demand for grains tends to be relatively inelastic, so for global grain prices to ease we really need to see an increase in the supply of grain that is available to be exported globally,” Kilsby said.

While wheat plantings in Australia will be large by historical levels, yields may fall from the highs of recent years.

“La Niña brings more rains in Australia and Asia, while drought in the Americas,” she said, adding the timing of the rainfall can also have a big effect on output.

Rabobank in its report noted Australian farmers have been investing heavily in new storage capacity to cope with increased production and also the limited capacity of grain handlers and exporters to move their crops.

Supply chain snags, however, mean some of the additional spending is not resulting in the equipment arriving.

In some cases, farmers “can order them, but they’re not even told when they can get” the extra storage, with waits stretching out to a year.

“There’s a lot less certainty in their world at the moment,” Rabobank’s Voznesenski said. [my yellow highlighting]

Soybean farmers on NSW North Coast suffer near-total crop losses. Region grows high-end soy bean crop for foods such as tofu with estimated value of $20 million. Ongoing rain after Feburary-March flooding is causing further losses.

That record flood caused extensive damage to the NSW Sugar Milling Co-operative’s three sugar mills on the Northern Rivers and 3,000 tonnes of raw sugar had to be condemned at Harwood, but it is expected that Condong on the Tweed and Harwood on the Clarence will be operational for the late June start to crushing while the Broadwater enterprise on the Richmond, which experienced extensive damage to the steam and power generation facility may not be fully operational until the end of August.

Australian Institute of Petroleum, Weekly Petrol Prices Report: Week Ending 29 May 2022:

Average Petrol retail price this week: 200.0 cents

Average Petrol wholesale price this week: 189.7 cents

Prices have been rising steadily. With the average petrol retail price for the week ending 1 May 2022 coming in at 178.2 cents and the average petrol wholesale price at 163.1 cents.

The week ending 8 May saw the retail price at 179.6 cents and wholesale price 169.2 cents. By the week ending 15 May average prices had risen to retail 185.0 cents and wholesale 178.7 cents. The following week ending 22 May averages prices had again increased to retail 199.1 cents and wholesale 183.3 cents.

Australian Energy Market, AER Statement – Retail Market, 1 June 2022, excerpt:

As outlined in both our Q1 Quarterly Wholesale Report and our Final Determination of the Default Market Offer last week, there continues to be volatility in the wholesale energy market resulting in added cost pressures on both retailers and consumers.

The AER is closely monitoring the situation in both the wholesale and retail markets and ensuring all participants are complying with the law and the rules…..

ABS, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, March 2022, 1 June 2022:

The La Nina weather cycle influenced Australia’s weather during summer and early autumn, leading to severe flooding in areas of south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales.

The impacts of these events can be seen in key national accounts aggregates. Severe storms disrupted mining and construction activity, resulting in reduced gross value added for these industries. Residential and commercial properties were damaged, resulting in increased non-life insurance claims and governments increased spending on defence assistance for affected areas.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Industry Gross Value Added

The response to the L-strain outbreak of COVID-19 led to a large fall in gross value added (GVA) in the June quarter 2020, driven by a record decrease in market sector GVA. Impacts were widespread throughout market industries, with only Mining and Financial and Insurance Services recording growth. The largest falls were seen in tourism and hospitality-related industries, reflecting the restrictions imposed on movement.

Non-market GVA declined driven by Health Care and Social Assistance. Elective surgeries were cancelled and visits to health care professionals declined as households sought to limit the spread of the virus. Both market and non-market GVA partially recovered in the September quarter 2020 as restrictions were lifted.

The Delta strain of COVID-19 had similar effects on market and non-market GVA, with trading and mobility restrictions reducing demand for many goods and services. The falls were not as pronounced as those that occurred during the L-strain, as fewer states experienced outbreaks. Additionally, trading frameworks such as COVID-19 safety plans were developed to allow some businesses in affected states to keep operating under restrictions such as mandatory QR check-ins for patrons and venue capacity limits.

The absence of lockdowns under the Omicron variant resulted in a lower impact on demand. While restrictions were less stringent, hours worked fell due to high COVID-19 infection rates and subsequent isolation requirements. Market sector GVA rose in the March quarter 2022, with the reopening of domestic and international borders. Growth was recorded in travel-related industries such as Transport, Postal and Warehousing and Accommodation and Food Services. Non-market GVA fell due to a contraction in Health Care and Social Assistance, however the fall was less severe than for the prior strains.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

UPDATE

ABC News, 3 June 2022:

Australian manufacturers facing massive increases in gas prices are warning they could be forced to shut, with tens of thousands of jobs on the line.

Gas prices on the spot market have quadrupled amid supply constraints, local coal-fired power station outages, and the war in Ukraine.

Australia's largest plastics producer Qenos buys about 40 per cent of its gas on the open market.

"Prices have gone up in the spot market to between $30 and $40 a gigajoule. In fact, that's in a month alone, that's an increase of 300 to 400 per cent," Qenos chief executive Steve Bell said.

"For energy-intensive businesses like ours that is not sustainable."….

On Wednesday, AEMO triggered the Gas Supply Guarantee Mechanism for the first time since it was introduced in 2017. The mechanism calls for the market to release supply and come up with a plan to address a potential shortfall.

Analyst Gilles Walgenwitz said without enough renewables capacity in the grid to make up the shortfall, local coal fired power station outages were also pushing up gas prices.

"We have about six gigawatts of coal capacity missing in Queensland, six gigawatts in New South Wales. That's huge, when you compare to the total capacity normally available," he said.

"And so, we have much more gas power generation coming into play to meet the demand and it happens that at the same time, the price of gas is extremely high."

Australian Federal Election May 2022: there is no new version of the Liberal MP for Cook Scott John Morrison, he has signalled an intention to put a blow torch to the bellies of the poor and vulnerable if the Coalition retains government

Four days out from the 21 May 2022 federal general election Liberal MP for Kooyong & Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg announced that after the election a Morrison Government would continue applying the knife to funding of federal government services to the tune of $3.3 billion. 

A total of $2.7 billion will be returning to the Treasury coffers by way of across the board annual savings it expects from increasing the current 1.5 per cent efficiency savings requirement to 2 per cent over the next three years.

The Guardian quoted Prime Minister Morrison on 17 May 2022: “That is something that I think is entirely sensible and, frankly, taxpayers would be demanding, that these types of sensible efficiencies are achieved and that is part of the process of managing a good budget,” the prime minister said while campaigning in Darwin on Tuesday. “It doesn’t impact on programs or services at all. It never has.”

According to Prime Minister Morrison and the Treasurer this increased cost cutting by way of efficiency dividends does not apply to the National Disability Insurance Agency, Safe Work Australia, Emergency Management Australia, the National Recovery and Resilience Agency, the ABC, the SBS, or small entities with fewer than 200 staff.

However it does appears to include in Morrison's own words "management of staffing arrangements" over the next three years.

On 17 May ABC News reported that: Prime Minister Scott Morrison was asked what agencies would be forced to tighten their belts and whether, given his praise for the public service over the way it helped Australians during the pandemic, it was a "mean spirited" way of rewarding people for their hard work.

"This is responsible budgetary management. We've made commitments in this election and we ensure that we pay for them," he said.

"That's how you manage your budget, you live within your means."

So where will this $3.3 billion be coming from? Especially the est. $600 million in savings which appears to stand outside three years of efficiency dividend savings.

It isn't hard to imagine that Scott Morrison, with another three years in front of him before having to face the national electorate again will return to his perennial favourites - further reducing the actual number of staff or hours worked in government departments and agencies by starving them of real funding increases, as well as further restricting eligibility for social service/welfare programs and removing more treatment items from Medicare rebates/bulkbilling & from the universal free public hospital system.

Individuals and families are already impacted by changes to eligibility and/or rebates for an estimated 188 cardiac surgery, 150 general surgery, 594 orthopaedic items, including hip, shoulder, hand & cardiac surgeries and a number of diagnostic imaging procedures. 

According to National Seniors Australia by 1 June 2021; Nine procedures have been deleted from the MBS entirely, and other changes may include tweaking the definitions of certain services.

Then there is the possibility of sudden removal of bulkbilling or enhanced bulking billing for certain specialist consultations, 

such as the one playing out right now in a mental health program which inordinately impacts on regional and remote Australia.

ABC News, 16 May 2022:

…..Psychiatrists say the Medicare cut has forced hundreds of patients to cancel or scale back their appointments, leading to the worst outcomes for patients some say they have ever seen.

Ms Pomeroy from Mackay had seen her psychiatrist on an almost monthly basis for the last three years for chronic anxiety and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).

But like other patients across rural and regional Australia, she said she was sprung with the news she would no longer have access to bulk-billed psychiatry appointments over telehealth.

"I went into shock," she said.

"It put me in a tailspin where I thought, 'What am I going to do now?'"

'It's almost like Noah's ark'

In January, a 50 per cent loading — known as item 288 — for psychiatrist video consultations for rural and regional patients was cut from the Medical Benefits Scheme (MBS).

The ABC understands about 45,000 patients claimed the item across 2020-21.

Brisbane-based psychiatrist Dr Bawani Marsden said the last five months had been devastating for patients as psychiatrists were left to choose who, if anyone, they could bulk-bill without the extra loading.

"It's almost like Noah's ark where you're deciding who you want to take with you and who you don't mind sinking and drowning," he said.

The option to bulk-bill patients remains. But without the extra loading, practices say it is unviable to provide to everyone.

A rebate for patients was still available, but Dr Marsden said about half of her rural and regional patients had cancelled because they now could not afford care.

"Almost a decade we've had that support and within a couple of weeks there was an announcement that it's going to be removed," she said.

"We're talking about a peak time here, we're coming out of COVID … and they've taken away a lifeline."…..

Credentialed mental health nurse Michelle Eastwell shakes her head.

"For our patients, it's gone from this seamless, private, de-stigmatised way of accessing mental health services to now … 'what's available?'" she said……

the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists (RANZCP) has campaigned against the move and said the taskforce recommended finding an alternative solution which had not been done.

"We have put forward a number of solutions including a bulk-billing incentive … for people with affordability issues," said RANZCP's president Associate Professor Vinay Makra.

"Some of our patients are the most vulnerable in society and the government must look at that vulnerability factor."

"If they do not receive that support from a psychiatrist … some will become unwell, and needing admissions to hospital [would] put additional impost on health and hospital systems that are already stressed."

Labor has pledged to reintroduce Item 288 if it gets elected on 21 May 2022.

In March 2022 it was reported that the Morrison Government is considering removing nursing home residents' access to professionally trained allied health services as a way of reducing Medicare costs.

In a media release on 17 May 2022 the ACTU estimated that the announced cost cutting would result in the loss of 5,500 public service jobs.

Australian Federal Election 2022: Scott Morrison in his own words….

The desirability of making welfare recipients cash cows for big business

Speaking before some 300 delegates in Sydney, Morrison said that an investment approach to welfare was the way forward alongside the charitable sector.

“Private capital investment in addressing social needs – charity must continue, and I believe it will – but real commercial investment is needed in addressing social challenges the country faces,” Morrison said.

“Non-Government providers are not new to the sector particularly when it comes to service delivery – you do it better than the Government ever can and I think that’s been one of the lessons over the last four years.

“We need to continue to build institutional capability and capacity of the non-Government sector for the delivery of these services but the big innovation that we must seek has to come through private investment.

“Partnerships between civil society groups and our business community will become not only more important, but critical to expanding the service base that is provided.”

Morrison told delegates that welfare must become a good deal for private investors.

“We have to make it a good deal for the returns to be there and to attract the level of capital that will be necessary,” he said.

“The investment approach to welfare offers much promise for the future welfare system.”

[Xavier Smerdon (June 2015) writing in ProBono Australia, “Private Capital Investment Needed to Expand Welfare System - Morrison”]

Australians can forget about relying on the age pension when they retire, according to Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison.

Echoing his predecessor Joe Hockey's pledge about the age of entitlement being over, in a speech on Friday Mr Morrison said the age pension should no longer be seen as an entitlement but "a welfare payment for those who do not have the ability to save enough to fund their own retirement".

"Becoming a self-funded retiree, I think, is one of the most important objectives of any Australian … it means you have choices and control over your life and your care," Mr Morrison said.

[Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison, 9 News, 30 Nov 2015]

"But you also have to make sure your welfare system does the right thing by those who are receiving it and the communities in which they live. That is why we have put in place the Cashless Debit Card. In particular in the member's electorate in Bundaberg and Hervey Bay from 29 January this year that trial commenced, quarantining welfare support from the purchase of alcohol or gambling products, where those purchases have caused drug and alcohol misuse and problem gambling. On 25 March this year we said we would be continuing trials at the existing sites in Ceduna, East Kimberley and Goldfields, and, of course, continuing those trials in Bundaberg and Hervey Bay….

Under this government we're running a welfare system which is a hand up, not out; one that understands that the best form of welfare is a job. Through programs like the cashless debit card, which is supported by this side of the House and opposed by that side of the House— (Time expired)"

[House of Representatives, Hansard (31 July 2019) Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the second time he spoke directly about the “Cashless Debit Card”]

“we are keeping the cashless debit card program running to protect more vulnerable Australians from social harm”

[House of Representatives, Hansard (24 October 2019) Scott Morrison on the the fourth and last time he uttered the words “Cashless Debit Card” on the floor of the House]

NOTE: 

In December 2020 Parliament passed the controversial amendments to Cashless Debit Card (CDC) laws but last minute amendments mean the trial sites would now be only be extended for two years and not become permanent income management sites. The CDC would also only be optional for est. 25,000 people currently on the Basics Card in the Northern Territory & Cape York, Qld.

Original commercial contracts and additional associated contracts are with Indue Limited.

AUSTENDER snapshots retrieved 4 May 2022

“The contentious CDC is being trialled in four regions - Ceduna in South Australia, the East Kimberly and Goldfields region in the West and Bundaberg and Hervey Bay in Queensland. The card quarantines 80 per cent of government payments so they cannot be used to withdraw cash, buy alcohol, or gamble.

Emotional speeches dominated Parliament as fierce debate continued long into the night.

The legislation passed the Senate by just one vote after the government failed to secure the support needed to make the CDC permanent with the last-minute amendments leading Centre Alliance senator, Stirling Griff declining to vote.

South Australian senator Rex Patrick and Tasmanian senator Jaqui Lambie both opposed the bill citing a lack of evidence and more investment in wrap-around supports and services are needed.

Those on the card are overwhelmingly Indigenous with the Minister for Social Services and Families, Anne Ruston revealing the figures in the Senate.

In WA's East Kimberley 81 per cent of people on the CDC are First Nations while in In the Goldfields 48 per cent of people and in the Queensland trial sites its 18 per cent.

Eighty-one per cent of people in the Northern Territory on the Basics Card are First Nations people. ” [NITV, 10 December 2020]

The sunset clause for Cashless Debit Card trial sites is 31 December 2022 and the 2021-22 Budget did not fund the program beyond that date. So expect Morrison & Co to quickly introduce legislation to extend this coercive program if they retain government after 21 May 2022.

Future militarisation of the response to civil disasters and unrest

PRIME MINISTER: I think we have got to prepare for a new normal. And the new normal, I think there is a community expectation now that there be a more direct ability for the Commonwealth, particularly through the Australian Defence Forces to be able to take action. See what happened…

SPEERS: What do you mean by that?

PRIME MINISTER: What happened last Saturday, this was the change, the big change, historic change, it moved from a respond to request posture, to a move and integrate posture. Which means the defence force moving in and then coming in and working with the local effort without requests, without any instigation at a state level, now…..

SPEERS: You want the power to deploy defence assets when you think you need to?

PRIME MINISTER: Where the Chief of the Defence Force believes there is a risk to life and safety and can support…

[ABC “Insiders” (January 2020) Prime Minister Scott Morrison interview with David Speers, transcript]

As of this morning, three hundred Australian Defence Force troops have been deployed primarily to southwest and western Sydney to help state law enforcement police ensure the diverse communities of lower socioeconomic standing comply with COVID stay-at-home orders.

NSW police commissioner Mick Fuller put in a request to PM Scott Morrison last Thursday afternoon……

The troops won’t be armed or have any official powers. And the terms of the deployment, as well as official orders, aren’t publicly available.

However, it’s lost upon no one that the troops have been sent out straight after a huge and illegal anti-lockdown protest happened the weekend prior to the deployment request…..

the Turnbull-Morrison government streamlined the ability of the PM and other designated ministers to deploy the military domestically, under the Defence Amendment (Call Out of the Australian Defence Force) Bill 2018.

So, rather than a measure of last resort, the executive can now deploy the military to enhance the capabilities of state and territory police in dealing with a threat of “domestic violence”, under the auspices of section 119 of the Australian Constitution.

The rather broad term domestic violence is left undefined within the founding document. However, it is designated as something distinct from “invasion” in that section of the Constitution.

Leading on from this late 2018 beefing up of call out provisions, the Morrison government passed a further bill last December, that streamlined the ability of the executive to deploy ADF reservists to domestic violence situations as well.

Section 33 of the Defence Act provides the governor general with the power to call out ADF troops to assist with domestic violence issues that threaten Commonwealth interests.

While section 35 of the Act allows for the call out of the ADF to assist state or territory law enforcement with “occurring, or likely to occur,” domestic violence situations if the PM, the attorney general or the defence minister is satisfied the situation requires it.

Special powers are bestowed to domestically deployed troops, via section 46, when capturing or recapturing a location, or when preventing or protecting against threats or acts of violence.

These include powers to control movement, search and seizure powers, the ability to detain citizens, to question them and to give them orders.

In terms of “protest, dissent, assembly or industrial action”, section 39 of the Act limits the powers of ADF troops to interfere in such matters, “except if there is a reasonable likelihood of the death of, or serious injury to, persons or serious damage to property”.

Section 123 provides ADF personnel with immunity from state laws in relation to registering a “vehicle, vessel, animal, firearm or other thing”. And section 123AA provides immunity to any civil or criminal liability in relation to anything done “in good faith” during such domestic operations…...

there’s a broader aspect to this use of the military to assist in managing restriction compliance, and that’s the ever-creeping militarisation of public life, whether that be via the coordination of the COVID-19 vaccines or turning the Australia Border Force into a paramilitary institution.

Last month, Australian peace activist Jacob Grech told Sydney Criminal Lawyers that “the military is a bigger and bigger part of our everyday lives”, and it’s “main focus, as assistance defence minister Hastie said around Anzac Day, is the application of lethal violence.”

“So, every time we are looking at other issues and areas where the military are involved – whether it’s with education or vaccine rollout – we have to remember that their main application is lethal violence.”

[Paul Gregoire (October 2021) writing in Sydney Criminal Lawyers blog, “The Laws Governing the Military’s Deployment on the Australian Public”]

A Morrison policy now hiding in the shadows

In addition we will commence a modest drug testing trial for 5,000 new welfare recipients.

JobSeeker recipients who test positive would be placed on the Cashless Debit Card for their welfare payments and be subjected to further tests and possible referral for treatment.

Other welfare measures include: strengthening verification requirements for single parents seeking welfare, a crackdown on those attempting to collect multiple payments, stricter residency rules for new migrants to access Australian pensions, and denying welfare for a disability caused solely by their own substance abuse….

Other welfare measures include: strengthening verification requirements for single parents seeking welfare, a crackdown on those attempting to collect multiple payments, stricter residency rules for new migrants to access Australian pensions, and denying welfare for a disability caused solely by their own substance abuse.

[Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison (May 2017) House of Representatives, Hansard, p. 4067]

NOTE: The Social Services Legislation Amendment (Drug Testing Trial) Bill 2019 was passed in the House of Representatives on 17 October 2019 after the rejected drug testing measures were again put to Parliament, this time by the Morrison Government. These measures applied to 5,000 new Jobseeker and Youth Allowance applicants in Canterbury-Bankstown (NSW), Logan (QLD) and Mandurah (WA) for a trial period of two years. The bill is currently before the Senate after having received a favourable inquiry report and an unfavourable human rights report. To date it has not progressed to assent, seemingly waiting for a cleared legislative schedule after the re-election of a Morrison Government.

On the subject of Morrison's personal unlawful war against the poor and vulnerable

In an interview with The Saturday Telegraph, the Prime Minister said he doesn’t want Australia’s strong economy to be compromised by bludgers who won’t pay back their debt.

“If you’ve got welfare debts but you can afford to get on a plane and go overseas, well — no,” Mr Morrison said.

[Prime Minister Scott Morrison (22 Sept 2018) in news.com.au]

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has denied personal responsibility for the Robodebt disaster, which has resulted in a $1.2 billion class action settlement.

Mr Morrison was social services minister when the unlawful scheme was conceived and touted the billions of dollars it was supposed to rake in during his time as treasurer.

He continued the welfare debt recovery program as Prime Minister and pinned a promised return to surplus on its projected windfall.

The federal government finally pulled the plug on the policy late in 2019 in the face of a Federal Court challenge. It settled a class action earlier in November, hours before the trial was to begin.…..

Thousands of debt notices demanding repayments were based on false information.

But Mr Morrison argues the use of income averaging brought the Robodebt scheme undone, not the full automation of the process.

“It’s actually not about the computer, it’s about the assumption made that a debt is raised by averaging people’s incomes,” he told Sydney radio 2GB on Wednesday.

“Income averaging was found not to be a valid means of raising a debt, that’s what it’s about. This is just the Labor Party trying to throw some mud.”

Robodebt victims are to receive $112 million in compensation, be repaid $720 million and have $400 million in unlawful debts wiped…..

“We’ve got on with fixing it, that’s what we’ve got on with doing. Labor wants to just keep kicking it along for their own political reasons,” the Prime Minister said.

[Journalist Daniel McCulloch writing in The New Daily, 25 November 2020]

The Morrison government has told a tribunal there is “strong public interest” in preserving the secrecy of “business case” documents that may outline the nucleus of the unlawful robodebt scheme.

IT expert Justin Warren won access to documents connected to the since-scrapped welfare debt recovery program under freedom of information laws in 2019, but he is yet to receive them after the government appealed against the decision.

Warren’s lawyer argues there is “profound” public interest in release because they may shed light on what went wrong with the scheme, which eventually saw the government reach a $1.8bn settlement with about 400,000 victims in what the federal court called a “shameful chapter”.

The Administrative Appeals Tribunal, which is considering the government’s latest attempt to keep the documents secret, heard closing arguments from both parties on Thursday.

The tribunal has previously heard the documents include detailed costings and other financial data about the program, which matched yearly income data against a person’s fortnightly reports to Centrelink to send a person a debt.

They are also said to include draft “new policy proposal” documents and purported attachments that outline a new plan to ramp up the government’s welfare debt recovery.

The tribunal is considering, among other issues, whether the documents were prepared for the cabinet process or were simply being worked on internally by the then Department of Human Services, which administered the robodebt scheme.

Counsel for the commonwealth, Andrew Berger QC, insisted on Thursday the documents should not be released because they were prepared for cabinet.

[Journalist Luke Henriques-Gomes writing in The Guardian, 23 December 2021]

NOTE:

As of 1 July 2022 a new federal employment service, Workforce Australia,  will begin which encompasses all employment services delivered by the Dept. of Education, Skills and Employment. Workforce Australia falls with the portfolios of Ministers Stuart Robert, Alan Tudge & Bridgit McKenzie as well as Assistant Minister Like Howarth.

As well as transferring more personal responsibility to an unemployed person to provide their own employment opportunities, it also increases the mutual obligation provisions by creating a digitalised points system whose software will decide if the unemployed person has met all mutual obligation requirements in any reporting period - with the apparent penalty for non-compliance being a reduction or suspension of benefits. One suspects that this new employment service is where the aforementioned "new plan to ramp up the government's welfare debt recovery" will initially be applied if the Morrison Government is re-elected. 

On being the best economic manager

On 18 September 2013 when Scott John Morrison moved from the Opposition benches to the Government side of the House of Representatives and straight into the new ministry and a Cabinet position, the nation's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annual growth was in the vicinity of 2.6%. By the end of the year he became Australian Treasurer GDP growth had slowed to 2.2%. In the year Morrison became prime minister growth rose to 2.9% and, then fell off a cliff a good twelve months before the global pandemic began, to bottom at the end of 2020 at minus zero annual growth according to the World Bank.

GDP growth (annual %) - Australia 2013 to 2020

World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2015 prices, expressed in U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.

An economy's growth is measured by the change in the volume of its output or in the real incomes of its residents. The 2008 United Nations System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) offers three plausible indicators for calculating growth: the volume of gross domestic product (GDP), real gross domestic income, and real gross national income. The volume of GDP is the sum of value added, measured at constant prices, by households, government, and industries operating in the economy. GDP accounts for all domestic production, regardless of whether the income accrues to domestic or foreign institutions.

In 2021 Australia's annual GDP growth over the year was a lacklustre1.5% before the December quarter came in at 3.4%. From the end December 2021 to March 2022 GDP growth has held at 4.2% but the International Monetary Fund appears to think that will shrink to est. 2.5% by the end of 2023 and fall yet again in 2024.

Then there was this......

While Monday's mid-year budget update forecasts a slight improvement in the budget bottom line this financial year - with a deficit of $36.5 billion rather than the $37.1 billion expected - the following three years will see the budget bottom line head further into the red than expected.

The deficit in 2017-18 will be $28.7 billion, up from $26.1 billion forecast in May. In 2018-19 it will be $19.7 billion and in 2019-20 the deficit will nearly double from $6 billion to $10 billion. In total, deficits over the next four years will total $94.9 billion.

In a statement, S&P said the latest budget forecasts would have "no immediate impact" on Australia's credit rating, but added a strong warning about the nation's worsening forecast fiscal position placing further pressure on the rating.

"We remain pessimistic about the government's ability to close existing budget deficits and return a balanced budget by the year ending June 30, 2021. Over the coming months, we will continue to monitor the government's willingness and ability to enact new budget savings or revenue measures to reduce fiscal deficits materially over the next few years," the statement said.

[The Age, 20 December 2016, p.1]

Followed by this a little over six years later.....

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 35 basis points. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances from zero per cent to 25 basis points….

Over the year to the March quarter, headline inflation was 5.1 per cent…

This rise in inflation largely reflects global factors. But domestic capacity constraints are increasingly playing a role and inflation pressures have broadened, with firms more prepared to pass through cost increases to consumer prices.….

The central forecast for 2022 is for headline inflation of around 6 per cent and underlying inflation of around 4¾ per cent; by mid 2024…..

The Board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time. This will require a further lift in interest rates over the period ahead.

[Reserve Bank of Australia, media release (3 May 2022) Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision, Number 2022-12]

The entire time Morrison has been a Cabinet Minister - rising to Treasurer in 2015 & Prime Minister in 2018 – every single national budget has been a deficit budget.

Not even in 2019 did he manage to keep the national accounts out of the red.

So what has Morrison had to say over the years about the national economy?

SCOTT MORRISON: In my electorate there are many families and there are many individuals who have mortgages and they would like to see rates come down.

[ABC “The World Today” (September 2008) Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison on the subject of the Reserve Bank lowering the interest rate]

The Prime Minister, campaigning in western Sydney on Monday, channelled former party leader John Howard by saying the government was committed to “keeping downward pressure” on interest rates, which are at a record low of 0.1 per cent….

Mr Morrison said the lift in inflation in the United States, where it climbed to 6.2 per cent last week, highlighted the issues at play in the Australian economy.

“I think it does highlight Australia’s economic recovery has to be secured by people who have a track record in economic management, otherwise you will see petrol prices go up, you will see electricity prices go up, you will see interest rates go up, more than they would need to,” he said.

[Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (15 April 2022), The Sydney Morning Herald]

“Well, inflation, as you know, is about how quickly costs are rising.” 

[Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (30 April 2022) interview with political commentator Peter van Onselen]

Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who has said interest rates would be lower under his government than under Labor, yesterday urged journalists not to politicise the potential rate rise…..

Morrison, campaigning in Victoria, said there were pressures coming from outside of Australia on the nation's interest rate settings.

He said the current rate of 0.1 per cent was "unconventionally low" and taxpayers understood they would start to move up.

"The pressures on interest rates ... the pressures on cost of living, highlight just why the economy is so important in this election," he said.

[Scott Morrison quoted in The Sydney Morning Herald, 3 May 2022, p.1]

On the touchy subject of religion within the corridors of a secular democratic parliament

God moves in mysterious ways, and never more so than when He moves into politics. On Thursday, for example, the Liberal Party announced that its candidate for the seat of Greenway, centred around Blacktown, would be Louise Markus, a prominent member of Hillsong, Australia's largest church…..

You might have thought someone standing for such a marginal seat would want all the media attention he or she could get, but the Liberals' state director, Scott Morrison, refused to let the Herald talk to her. He said she would do "local media first".

Instead Morrison, himself a man of "strong religious views", launched into a pitch for the type of "faith-based programs" that Hillsong had established to address social problems.

"In the [United] States there is an increasing tendency of governments particularly the Bush Government to get behind what are called faith-based programs," he enthused.

"That is where governments start to lift the constraints on the Noffses and the Bill Crewses and others, to enable them to really help people, beyond just the material, and give them life advice which involves faith. Those programs, I understand, have had some great success."

Markus works for Emerge, the Hillsong offshoot whose facilities and programs range from medical centres and emergency relief services to drug and alcohol programs, and personal development and recovery programs.

The CEO there, Leigh Coleman, would not put us in contact with Markus, either. And so the views of the Hillsong employee and Liberal candidate on the desirability of passing responsibility for social welfare issues from secular government agencies to religious organisations must for now remain a mystery.

Perhaps some light will be shed when the chief pastor of Hillsong, Brian Houston, addresses Federal Parliament's Christian fellowship prayer breakfast when next it meets, in about a month…..

Are we witnessing here the growth of a US-style religious right influence on politics, particularly on Liberal Party politics?

The state director, Scott Morrison concedes: "Certainly there is a strong element in the party which holds very deep religious convictions."

[Liberal Party Director Scott Morrison (12 April 2004), The Sydney Morning Herald]

He also acknowledges that the Liberal Party, once largely comprised of members of the established Protestant faiths, is these days "literally a broad church"…..

[Journalists Mike Seccombe, Aban Contractor and Mark Metherell, The Sydney Morning Herald, 12 April 2002, p.13]

Since entering the parliament and before I have held a very clear, consistent and public view supporting the current definition of marriage as a voluntary union for life of a man and a woman to the exclusion of all others. I maintain this view and issued a statement to my electorate on 19 November last year to initiate feedback from my constituents…..

Religions and cultures over centuries have held that family is ultimately based on the union of a man and a woman. I do not believe that the tested wisdom of centuries has been overwhelmed by more contemporary arguments. I acknowledge that in today's society too many heterosexual marriages fail. Family breakdown is the primary cause of poverty, disadvantage, mental illness and related conditions in our society today. The biggest victims of marriage failure and family breakdown are children. The social and economic costs of family breakdown are incalculable. This is a genuine national tragedy, not an argument for same-sex marriage. Legal recognition of same-sex unions does not, and should not, require the redefinition of marriage.

Marriage, as I have said, is a union between a man and a woman to the exclusion of all others for life. Legal recognition of a same-sex union should be termed something else. I have no objection to some other form of legal recognition of such relationships in the form of a type of civil union provided such unions do not provide any automatic access to adoption. I appreciate there are many in the community who hold a different view to those I have expressed in this place. Of those who contacted me by mail, petition and email who I was able to identify in my electorate, more than 850 were against changes to the Marriage Act, while over 50 were in favour. I do not seek to represent this as a representative poll—my position will not be determined by such polls—but it would appear that of those who feel strongly about this issue a majority were in favour of retaining the current definition rather than changing it.

As we look at this issue, though, I think we need to be mindful of what the real threats to marriage are in the context of this debate, and I believe that such threats are posed more from within than from without. This debate should remind us that anniversaries in marriage are earned, not arrived at, and we should all work on the sanctity of marriage. 

[House of Representatives, Hansard (24 Aug 2011) Liberal MP for Cook & Shadow Minister for Immigration and Citizenship Scott Morrison]

Scott Morrison has asked a national conference of Christian churches to help him help Australia, while revealing his belief that he and his wife, Jenny, have been called upon to do God’s work.

In video that has emerged of the prime minister speaking at the Australian Christian Churches conference on the Gold Coast last week, Morrison also revealed that he had sought a sign from God while on the 2019 election campaign trail, and that he had practised the evangelical tradition of the “laying-on of hands” while working in the role of prime minister.

He also describes the misuse of social media as the work of “the evil one”, in reference to the Devil, and called on his fellow believers to pray against its corrosive effect on society.

While Australians are familiar with the non-evangelical Christian beliefs of John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull, Morrison is the first Pentecostal Christian to hold the office.

Morrison has been open about his faith, inviting journalists into the Horizon church in the Sutherland shire during the 2019 election campaign, and describing his subsequent victory as a “miracle” win. Footage of him calling for prayers for state and territory leaders during the Covid pandemic has also emerged.

The prime minister travelled to the conference from Sydney using his taxpayer-funded aircraft. No video of the address has been promoted on his Facebook or official pages, nor has his office released a copy of his speech, as usually occurs when he is speaking in his official capacity as prime minister.

The video, which was broadcast by Vineyard Christian church then distributed by the Rationalist Society, gives rare insight into Morrison’s personal religious practice and the beliefs that guide him and the rapidly growing Pentecostal movement in Australia…..

Talking about a difficult time during the final fortnight of the election campaign, Morrison shared a story of asking God for a sign before visiting the Ken Duncan Gallery on the New South Wales Central Coast.

“I must admit I was saying to myself, ‘You know, Lord, where are you, where are you? I’d like a reminder if that’s OK,’” Morrison says.

“And there right in front of me was the biggest picture of a soaring eagle that I could imagine and of course the verse hit me.

“The message I got that day was, ‘Scott, you’ve got to run to not grow weary, you’ve got to walk to not grow faint, you’ve got to spread your wings like an eagle to soar like an eagle.’”

He told the conference that he and Jenny had been grateful for the “amazing prayers and support” sent from Christians across the country, and shared with the crowd that he had practised the laying on of hands, a Pentecostal tradition of healing and encouragement to faith.

“I’ve been in evacuation centres where people thought I was just giving someone a hug and I was praying, and putting my hands on people … laying hands on them and praying in various situations,” he says….

[Political journalist Sarah Martin writing about Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s faith in The Guardian, 26 April 2021]

*My yellow highlighting throughout this post