Showing posts with label health. Show all posts
Showing posts with label health. Show all posts

Friday 29 March 2024

Is the rental property or properties you own or manage capable of killing your tenants?

 

Are you on the board of a not-for-profit organisation that provides social or affordable rental housing? Do you have a residential property portfolio or do you just own a second home your rent out?


Then this post is written for you to consider.


Is the rental property or properties you own or manage capable of killing your tenants?



ACOSS Heat Study 2024, 1 March 2024, excerpt:


Hotter days and homes with poor energy performance create hot boxes that cannot be cooled


People variously described living in hot homes that they cannot cool as “awful”, “unliveable”, “miserable”, “unbearable”, “torture” and “a prison.”


Of the 1007 people who completed the survey, most (80.4%) said their home gets too hot in the summer.


Over half the people surveyed (56.7%) said they struggle to cool their home.


At a state and Territory level, more than half of people in Western Australia (67.2%), Queensland (66.1%), Australian Capital Territory (64.3%) and New South Wales (55.0%) said their home gets too hot and they struggle to cool it. Nearly half of the people surveyed in Victoria (45.8%), South Australia (45.7%) and the Northern Territory (45.5%) also had this experience. Tasmania was the only jurisdiction where all people surveyed said either their home was comfortable, or they are able to cool it when hot.


Some groups were more likely to struggle to cool their home:

people renting in social housing (78.3%)

people receiving income support (60.8%)

people renting directly from a real estate agency (68.6%) or landlord (56.7%).


People in social or private rental properties have very limited control to make changes to their home to make it more energy efficient and resistant to extreme temperatures. They have limited control to install insulation, draft proofing, shading, fans or air conditioners, regardless of whether or not they can afford these changes. Of the 558 people living in social housing or private rental, most (69.7%) said they struggle to cool their home[my yellow highlighting]


I rent and there is no air con. Though I have fans, that can’t compete with high temps.

My apartment is north-west facing at top of the block.”

- Judith, New South Wales


People who indicated that they were in insecure housing (3%) also spoke of having limited control to cool their home when it gets too hot.



Healthy Futures, media release, 26 March 2024, excerpt:


Heat-related illnesses kill thousands of Australians every year (1) and roughly one-third of these deaths can be attributed to climate change (2,3). Heatwaves increase the risk of dehydration, kidney failure, heart attacks and strokes. Older people, children, people with pre-existing health conditions and people unable to afford air conditioning are most vulnerable. [my yellow highlighting]


Currently, many social housing dwellings are poor quality and prone to temperature extremes (4-6). A 2023 survey of people on low incomes by the Australian Council of Social Services found that 94.5% avoided using air conditioning because it is too expensive (7). Solar panels can significantly reduce air conditioning costs, and while 30% of Australian homes now have rooftop solar, rooftop solar coverage on social housing in New South Wales, for example, is only 7% (8).


Energy efficiency retrofits and renewable-powered air conditioning will not only protect people from extreme temperatures and drive down costs of living; they will also mitigate climate change and its health impacts in the long term by reducing dependence on polluting fossil fuel-based electricity.



Nature Climate Change, 11, pages 492–500 (2021)


Published 31 May 2021:


The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change


A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, N. Scovronick, F. Sera, D. Royé, R. Schneider, A. Tobias, C. Astrom, Y. Guo, Y. Honda, D. M. Hondula, R. Abrutzky, S. Tong, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, P. H. Nascimento Saldiva, E. Lavigne, P. Matus Correa, N. Valdes Ortega, H. Kan, S. Osorio, J. Kyselý, A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, J. J. K. Jaakkola, N. Ryti, M. Pascal, A. Schneider, K. Katsouyanni, E. Samoli, F. Mayvaneh, A. Entezari, P. Goodman, A. Zeka, P. Michelozzi, F. de’Donato, M. Hashizume, B. Alahmad, M. Hurtado Diaz, C. De La Cruz Valencia, A. Overcenco, D. Houthuijs, C. Ameling, S. Rao, F. Di Ruscio, G. Carrasco-Escobar, X. Seposo, S. Silva, J. Madureira, I. H. Holobaca, S. Fratianni, F. Acquaotta, H. Kim, W. Lee, C. Iniguez, B. Forsberg, M. S. Ragettli, Y. L. L. Guo, B. Y. Chen, S. Li, B. Armstrong, A. Aleman, A. Zanobetti, J. Schwartz, T. N. Dang, D. V. Dung, N. Gillett, A. Haines, M. Mengel, V. Huber & A. Gasparrini


Abstract


Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. [my yellow highlighting]



The Lancet, Planetary Health, Volume 5, Issue 7, E415-E425

Article published July 2021, excerpts:


Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study


Prof Qi Zhao, PhD Prof Yuming Guo, PhD Tingting Ye, MSc Prof Antonio Gasparrini, PhD Prof Shilu Tong, PhD Ala Overcenco, PhD Aleš Urban, PhD Alexandra Schneider, PhD Alireza Entezari, PhD Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, PhD Antonella Zanobetti, PhD Antonis Analitis, PhD Ariana Zeka, PhD Aurelio Tobias, PhD Baltazar Nunes, PhD Barrak Alahmad, MPH Prof Ben Armstrong, PhD Prof Bertil Forsberg, PhD Shih-Chun Pan, PhD Carmen Íñiguez, PhD Caroline Ameling, BS César De la Cruz Valencia, MSc Christofer Åström, PhD Danny Houthuijs, MSc Do Van Dung, PhD Dominic Royé, PhD Ene Indermitte, PhD Prof Eric Lavigne, PhD Fatemeh Mayvaneh, PhD Fiorella Acquaotta, PhD Francesca de'Donato, PhD Francesco Di Ruscio, PhD Francesco Sera, MSc Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, MSc Prof Haidong Kan, PhD Hans Orru, PhD Prof Ho Kim, PhD Iulian-Horia Holobaca, PhD Jan Kyselý, PhD Joana Madureira, PhD Prof Joel Schwartz, PhD Prof Jouni J K Jaakkola, PhD Prof Klea Katsouyanni, PhD Prof Magali Hurtado Diaz, PhD Martina S Ragettli, PhD Prof Masahiro Hashizume, PhD Mathilde Pascal, PhD Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, PhD Nicolás Valdés Ortega, MSc Niilo Ryti, PhD Noah Scovronick, PhD Paola Michelozzi, MSc Patricia Matus Correa, MSc Prof Patrick Goodman, PhD Prof Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, PhD Rosana Abrutzky, MSc Samuel Osorio, MSc Shilpa Rao, PhD Simona Fratianni, PhD Tran Ngoc Dang, PhD Valentina Colistro, MSc Veronika Huber, PhD Whanhee Lee, PhD Xerxes Seposo, PhD Prof Yasushi Honda, PhD Prof Yue Leon Guo, PhD Prof Michelle L Bell, PhD Shanshan Li, PhD


Introduction


Earth's average surface temperature has risen at a rate of 0·07°C per decade since 1880, a rate that has nearly tripled since the 1990s.1 The acceleration of global warming has resulted in 19 of the 20 hottest years occurring after 2000 and an unprecedented frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events, such as heatwaves, worldwide. Exposure to non-optimal temperatures has been associated with a range of adverse health outcomes (eg, excess mortality and morbidity from various causes).2, 3, 4, 5, 6 All populations over the world are under certain threats from non-optimal temperatures, regardless of their ethnicity, location, sex, age, and socioeconomic status. For example, in China, 14·3% of non-accidental mortality in 2013–15 might have been related to non-optimal temperatures, with 11·6% of deaths explainable by cold exposure and 2·7% explainable by heat exposure.7 In the USA, the risk of mortality increased by 5–12% due to cold exposure and 5–10% due to heat exposure between 2000 and 2006.8 An association between ambient temperature and mortality risk has also been reported in India, Australia, the EU, South Africa, and other countries and regions. 9, 10, 11  [my yellow highlighting]





Figure 1 Average daily mean temperatures of the 750 locations from the 43 countries or territories included in the analysis

The colours represent the different ranges of average daily mean temperature during the data collection periods shown in the appendix (p 4).



Daily minimum and maximum temperatures between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2019, were collected from the Global Daily Temperature dataset (grid size 0·5° × 0·5°) of the Climate Prediction Center. This dataset was developed, by use of a Shepard algorithm with observational data from 6000 to 7000 weather monitoring stations worldwide,15 as a benchmark for a range of reanalysis products and climate change models. Daily mean temperature was calculated by averaging daily minimum and maximum temperatures.


ScienceDirect

Energy and Buildings

Volume 272, 1 October 2022:


Integrated assessment of the extreme climatic conditions, thermal performance, vulnerability, and well-being in low-income housing in the subtropical climate of Australia


Shamila Haddad, Riccardo Paolini, Afroditi Synnefa, Lilian De Torres, Deo Prasad, Mattheos Santamouris


Abstract


Social housing stock worldwide can be characterised by poor indoor environmental quality and building thermal performance, which along with the increasing urban overheating put the low-income population at higher health risk. The dwellings’ thermal performance and the indoor environmental quality are often overlooked in the context of social housing compared to the general building stock in Australia. In the present study, the synergies between urban microclimate, indoor air temperature, housing characteristics and quality of life of residents have been investigated by employing subjective and objective assessment of indoor environmental quality in 106 low-income dwellings during the winter and summer of 2018–2019 in New South Wales. It further examines the impact of urban overheating and levels of income on indoor thermal conditions. The subjective method involved assessing the links between the type of housing in which low-income people live, energy bills, self-reported thermal sensation, health and well-being, and occupants’ behaviours. The results show that many dwellings operated outside the health and safety temperature limits for substantial periods. Indoor air temperatures reached 39.8 °C and the minimum temperature was about 5 °C. While the upper acceptability limit for indoor air temperature was 25.6 °C for 80 % satisfaction, periods of up to about 997 and 114 continuous hours above 26 °C and 32 °C were found in overheated buildings, respectively. Indoor overheating hours above 32 °C were recorded up to 238 % higher in Sydney’s western areas compared to eastern and inner suburbs. Similarly, residents in westerns suburbs and regions experience more outdoor overheating hours than those living near the eastern suburbs. This study highlights the interrelationships between ambient temperature, housing design, income, thermal comfort, energy use, and health and well-being in the context of social housing. The evidence of winter underheating and summer overheating suggests that improvements in building quality and urban heat mitigation are required to minimise the impacts of poor-performing housing and local climate. [my yellow highlighting]



Wednesday 27 March 2024

Healthcare workers gathered outside Parliament to send the Federal Government a strong message that heat and climate change are harmful to health, and people need protection now

 

As GPs, we know that increasing extremes of heat can have an impact on the health of the community – especially on the very young, and the very old. In primary care, we need to help our patients plan for heatwaves, which might include discussing staying cool, using air conditioning, or including this in chronic disease management plans, but we also need to advocate for broader interventions that can reduce climate change.” [Associate Professor Rowena Ivers, representing the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, Healthy Futures media release, 26 March 2024]


IMAGE: @RACGPPresident


Health professionals gathered at 11am on Tuesday, 26 March 2024 outside Parliament House in Canberra to deliver an open letter signed by 25 organisations representing over 50,000 health professionals, including the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP), the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM) and the Australasian College of Sports and Exercise Physicians (ACSEP), calling for funding commitments for rooftop solar on social housing to protect vulnerable people from the health impacts of extreme heat and climate change.


Led by Healthy Futures1, the letter warns that heat-related illnesses kill thousands of Australians every year.


The letter requests that the Federal government commit to installing rooftop solar on at least 30% of Australian social housing, to be completed by the end of 2026, provide access to affordable renewable electricity where rooftop solar is impractical and install reverse cycle air conditioning and implement other energy efficient retrofits to achieve safe temperatures in all social housing.


Key facts:


Heat-related illnesses kill thousands of Australians every year (1) by increasing heart attacks, strokes, kidney failure and other health impacts.


Roughly one-third of heat-related deaths in Australia are attributable to climate change (2,3).


Many social housing dwellings are poor quality and prone to temperature extremes (3-5).


A 2023 survey of people on low incomes by the Australian Council of Social Services found that 94.5% avoided using air conditioning because it is too expensive (6). [Healthy Futures, media release, 26 March 2024]



Text of the Letter



To: the Hon Chris Bowen, Federal Minister for Climate Change & Energy


Cc: the Hon Jenny McAllister, Federal Assistant Minister for Climate Change & Energy

& the Hon Mark Butler, Federal Minister for Health & Aged Care

& the Hon Jim Chalmers, Federal Treasurer

& the Hon Julie Collins, Federal Minister for Housing

& the Hon Amanda Rishworth, Federal Minister for Families and Social Services


Dear Minister Bowen,


As healthcare workers and community members, we request that the Australian government protect people in social housing from the increasing health impacts of climate change by ensuring that their homes are kept at safe temperatures through building retrofits and affordable, renewable-powered air conditioning.


Heat-related illnesses kill thousands of Australians every year (1) and roughly one-third of these deaths can be attributed to climate change (2,3). Heatwaves increase the risk of dehydration, kidney failure, heart attacks and strokes. Older people, children, people with pre-existing health conditions and people unable to afford air conditioning are most vulnerable.


Currently, many social housing dwellings are poor quality and prone to temperature extremes (4-6). A 2023 survey of people on low incomes by the Australian Council of Social Services found that 94.5% avoided using air conditioning because it is too expensive (7). Solar panels can significantly reduce air conditioning costs, and while 30% of Australian homes now have rooftop solar, rooftop solar coverage on social housing in New South Wales, for example, is only 7% (8).


Energy efficiency retrofits and renewable-powered air conditioning will not only protect people from extreme temperatures and drive down costs of living; they will also mitigate climate change and its health impacts in the long term by reducing dependence on polluting fossil fuel-based electricity.


We therefore request that as part of the next federal budget you commit funding to:


  • Roll out rooftop solar on at least 30% of Australian social housing, to be completed by the end of 2026


  • Ensure access to affordable renewable electricity for social housing where rooftop solar is impractical, e.g. via power purchasing agreements and/or battery storage


  • Install reverse cycle air conditioning and implement other energy efficient retrofits to achieve safe temperatures in all social housing.


Sincerely,


Signed by 25 organisations representing over 50,000 health professionals, including the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP), the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM) and the Australasian College of Sports and Exercise Physicians (ACSEP)


References:


[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext



[2]

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-blamed-for-more-than-a-third-of-heat-related-deaths-20210531-p57wpy.html



[3]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01058-x



[4] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378778822005205?via%3Dihub


[5] https://www.malleefamilycare.org.au/MFCSite/media/PDFDocuments/PublicHousing/2019/MalleeFamilyCare_PublicHousing_Report_2019.pdf


[6]

https://www.shelterwa.org.au/stuck-in-the-heat/


[7]

https://www.acoss.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Heat-Survey-Report_20230228.pdf


[8]

https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/576436/environmental-sustainability-strategy-2024-2026.pdf



Extreme heat can trigger heart attacks, kidney failure, strokes and even death,” said Ursula Alquier, Healthy Futures Campaigner. “We want to see a commitment to ensure people living in social housing are able to live in safe and healthy homes”


As healthcare workers, we are concerned about the health of our patients and our climate. People in social housing need energy-efficient homes with cheap renewable-powered air conditioning to protect their health” said Dr Harry Jennens, general practitioner and Healthy Futures Co-ordinator. [Healthy Futures, media release, 26 March 2024]


IMAGE: @RACGPPresident


NOTES

1. Healthy Futures is an affiliate of Friends of the Earth Australia and a member of the Climate and Health Alliance.



Thursday 7 September 2023

The pharmacists of Australia turned faces of naked entitlement towards Parliament and their own client base, jeering and yelling on Monday 4 September 2023

 

Financial Review, 4 September 2023:


Hundreds of pharmacists were in Canberra for a protest on Monday morning, and many pharmacists attended question time in white uniforms, jeering as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese defended Labor’s consultation over the plan.

In an already rowdy question time, Speaker of the House of Representatives Milton Dick warned people in public galleries that they were present as observers, not participants, in parliamentary proceedings and should refrain from interjecting.

But hostilities escalated dramatically when members of the group loudly exited the chamber, with many yelling at MPs on the chamber floor below in a co-ordinated exit.

Some shouted “lies” and at least one pharmacist raised his middle fingers as he walked out. The sitting was disrupted for a few minutes…..




Pharmacists leaving House of Representatives visitor's gallery after disrupting Question Time and also allegedly abusing Parliament House staff. IMAGE: Canberra Times




MPs on the Opposition benches in the House of Representatives cat calling & encouraging pharmacists in the Visitor's Gallery during Question Time on 4 September 2023. It is believed that some of the pharmacists were signed in as visitors by one or more Liberal Party MPs. IMAGE: Daily Mail



Because the industry union, Pharmacy Guild of Australia, has run such a virulent campaign against the the federal government’s reduction of prescription medicine costs to eligible consumer/patients via the introduction of 60-day prescriptions for certain medicines and because Liberal & Nationals members of federal parliament are attempting to turn this issue into a political football, there may be a need to restate what the 60-day prescription scheme entails.


Australian Government, Dept. of Health and Aged Care, 4 September 2023:


60-day prescriptions of PBS medicines


Learn about the changes to Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) medicine prescriptions.


From 1 September 2023, nearly 100 common medicines listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) will have the option of a 60-day prescription. This means many patients can now receive twice the medication for the cost of a single prescription. To qualify, patients must be:

  • living with an ongoing health condition

  • assessed by their prescriber to be stable on their current medicine/medicines

  • have discussed with their prescriber and obtained a new prescription for a 60-day quantity of medicine per dispensing.


The changes are happening in 3 stages over 12 months and will apply to more than 300 medicines once completed on 1 September 2024.


The changes follow advice from the independent Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC), which recommended it was clinically safe and suitable to allow 60-day prescriptions for eligible patients.


The full list of PBS medicines recommended by PBAC as suitable for dispensing in increased quantities includes some medicines for ongoing health conditions, such as:

  • asthma

  • breast cancer

  • cardiovascular disease

  • chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)

  • constipation

  • chronic renal failure

  • Crohn’s disease

  • depression

  • diabetes

  • endometriosis

  • endometrial cancer

  • epilepsy

  • glaucoma and dry eyes

  • gout

  • heart failure

  • high cholesterol

  • hormonal replacement and modulation therapy

  • hypertension

  • osteoporosis

  • Parkinson’s disease

  • ulcerative colitis.


The full list of medicines recommended by the PBAC for 60-day prescribing is available on the medicine list for increased dispensing quantities.


Prescribers have the option to prescribe these medicines for either 30 or 60-day prescriptions, according to their professional clinical judgement.


Benefits and cost savings


Patients with a 60-day prescription for a PBS medicine may save up to:

$180 a year, per medicine for Medicare card holders who do not have a concession card

$43.80 a year, per medicine for concession cardholders….


Stage one – available from 1 September 2023


The first stage of medicines available for 60-day prescriptions will support patients stable on their current treatment and living with ongoing health conditions including:


  • cardiovascular disease

  • Crohn’s disease

  • gout

  • heart failure

  • high cholesterol

  • hypertension

  • osteoporosis

  • ulcerative colitis.


Stage one includes nearly 100 medicines and represents roughly one third of all the medicines available for 60-day prescriptions.


See the list of stage one medicines. The Department is finalising the order of medicines available in stage 2 and 3.


Medicine supply


The move to 60-day prescriptions won’t cause medicine shortages as patients will still buy the same amount of medicine annually. While eligible patients are able to buy double the medication on a single prescription, demand for medicines will remain unchanged.


Of the more than 300 medicines PBAC recommended for 60-day prescriptions, the vast majority have no shortage of supply in Australia. The Department is monitoring the 60-day dispensing medicine list and has ensured that medicines were only included in stage one if they were not in shortage or at risk of shortage.


Medicine shortages can occur for different reasons, like:

  • shortages of raw material

  • transport issues

  • factory quality control issues

  • temporary factory closures

  • natural disasters.


Most shortages are short-term, temporary disruptions and often only limit some brands, strengths or formulations.


The introduction of 60-day prescriptions in three stages over 12 months reduces pharmacy disruption and let’s supply chains adapt, as eligible patients will use existing prescriptions first.


Helping to ensure good medicine supply


Pharmaceutical companies must tell the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) of expected medicine shortages. This means any medicine supply not likely to meet normal or projected consumer demand at any point during the next 6 months.


The Australian Government has made changes to the Medicines Supply Security Guarantee. From 1 July 2023, medicine manufacturers must have more onshore stockholdings for chosen brands. This will help make sure there is stock onshore, ready for pharmacy delivery to meet any temporary increase in demand.


Wholesalers must deliver to any pharmacy in 24 hours (excluding weekends or public holidays) if they are running low on medicine. This applies for most medicines.


Reinvestments into pharmacy services


The government commits to supporting a thriving community pharmacy sector.


All money saved by the government from reductions in fees paid to pharmacy for supplying medication to patients will be reinvested into community pharmacy.


This is to support the ongoing vital role of the pharmacy sector and give new opportunities for expanding pharmacists scope of practice.


Note: All yellow highlighting is mine.


Read the full advice at:

https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/60-day-prescriptions


Thursday 27 July 2023

On 25 July 2022 the NSW Legislative Council announced the “Inquiry into current and potential impacts of gold, silver, lead and zinc mining on human health, land, air and water quality in New South Wales”

 


On 25 July 2022 the NSW Legislative Council announced the Inquiry into current and potential impacts of gold, silver, lead and zinc mining on human health, land, air and water quality in New South Wales”


Triggered by community concerns wherever gold, silver, lead or zinc mining exploration is occurring or active mines are established and, the ongoing NSW Environmental Protection Agency investigation of Newcrest’s Cadia Holdings Pty Ltd mine near Orange, the NSW Parliament Legislative Council has acted.


Portfolio Committee No. 2 – Health was established on 10 May 2023 in the 58th Parliament to inquire into and report on any matters relevant to the public administration of:


Health, Regional Health, the Illawarra and the South Coast, Water, Housing, Homelessness, Mental Health, Youth, the North Coast.


The composition of Portfolio No.2 Committee is:


Chair: Cohn, Amanda (GRNS, LC Member)

Deputy Chair: Carter, Susan (LIB, LC Member)

Members: Buttigieg, Mark (ALP, LC Member)

Donnelly, Greg (ALP, LC Member)

Faehrmann, Cate (GRNS, LC Member)

Suvaal, Emily (ALP, LC Member)

Taylor, Bronnie (NAT, LC Member)


On Tuesday 25 July 2023 this Standing Committee created a Select Committee to inquire into and report on the current and potential impacts of gold, silver, lead and zinc mining on human health, land, air and water quality in New South Wales.


Submissions to the inquiry will close on 5 September 2023 and the select committee reports on its findings by 21 November 2023.


Submissions can be lodged via the inquiry webpage at:

https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-details.aspx?pk=2976#tab-submissions


The Inquiry’s terms of reference can be read abd downloaded at:

https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2976/Terms%20of%20reference.pdf



This Upper House inquiry is of more than passing interest to Northern Rivers communities given that by 2022 the NSW Government had granted 18 Mineral Mining Leases (MLs) and Gold Leases (GLs) and over 35 Mineral Exploration Licences (ELs) in the Clarence electorate, along with 6 new exploration leases [Clarence Catchment Alliance, retrieved 26.07.23].


Friday 19 May 2023

World Meteorological Organization predicts one year in the next five will almost certainly be the hottest on record and there’s a 66% chance a single year will cross the crucial 1.5℃ global warming threshold


….So what is driving the bleak outlook for the next five years? An expected El Niño, on top of the overall global warming trend, will likely push the global temperature to record levels. Has the Paris Agreement already failed if the global average temperature exceeds the 1.5℃ threshold in one of the next five years? No, but it will be a stark warning of what’s in store if we don’t quickly reduce emissions to net zero.” [Dr Andrew King, Climate Extremes Research Fellow, School of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, writing in The Conversation on 17 May 2023]


World Meteorological Organization (WMO), media release, 17 May 2023:


Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years


Geneva, 17 May 2023 (WMO) – Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).


There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.


This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.


A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof. Taalas.


There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.


The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance of exceedance.


Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Dr Leon Hermanson, a Met Office expert scientist who led the report.


Key points


> The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average. The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over much of the past three years temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend. But La Niña ended in March 2023 and an El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024.

> The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. This is used as a baseline because it was before the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.

> There is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.

> The chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the last five years is also 98%.

> Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.

> Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.


Paris Agreement


In addition to increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are leading to more ocean heating and acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise and more extreme weather.


The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all nations to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C, to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and related losses and damages.


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5 °C than at present, but lower than at 2 °C.


The new report was released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress (22 May to 2 June) which will discuss how to strengthen weather and climate services to support climate change adaptation. Priorities for discussion at Congress include the ongoing Early Warnings for All initiative to protect people from increasingly extreme weather and a new Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Infrastructure to inform climate mitigation.


Ensemble mean forecast 2023-2027


Notes For Editors:


The Global Annual to Decadal Update is one of a suite of WMO climate products, including the flagship State of the Global Climate, which seek to inform policy-makers. WMO will release its provisional statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2023 at the UN Climate Change Conference, COP28, in December.


The UK’s Met Office acts as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to DecadalClimate Prediction. This year there are 145 ensemble members contributed by 11 different institutes to the predictions, which start at the end of 2022. Retrospective forecasts, or hindcasts, covering the period 1960-2018 are used to estimate forecast skill.


Confidence in forecasts of global mean temperature is high since hindcasts show very high skill in all measures.


The forecasts shown here are intended as guidance for Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). It does not constitute an official forecast for any region or nation, but RCCs, RCOFs and NMHSs are encouraged to appropriately interpret and develop value-added forecasts from this Climate Update.


The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water


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Excerpts from WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: Target years: 2023 and 2023-2027 specifically mentioning Australia:


  • Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, relative to

the 1991-2020 average, suggest an increased chance of above average rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.


Near-surface temperatures in 2023 are likely to be higher than the 1991-2020 average in almost all regions except for Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and parts of Australia (Figure 7). Parts of the South Pacific Ocean are likely to be cooler than average. Skill is estimated from hindcasts to be medium or high in most regions (Figure 8) giving medium to high confidence in the forecast…..


This section shows predictions for the average of the next five extended seasons for May to September and November to March.

For the May to September average, predicted temperature patterns over the years 2023-2027 show a high probability of temperatures above the 1991-2020 average almost everywhere, with enhanced warming over land (Figure 9). Skill is very high in most regions, giving high confidence in this prediction (Figure 10). For the same season, sea-level pressure is predicted to be anomalously low over the Mediterranean and surrounding countries, and high over the maritime continent and surrounding countries.

There is medium skill for most of these regions, giving medium confidence.

Predictions of precipitation show wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and dry anomalies for this season over the Amazon and western Australia. Skill is low to medium for these regions, giving low to medium confidence.

For the November to March average over the years 2023/24-2027/28 (Figure 11), the predictions show warm anomalies are likely almost everywhere, with land temperatures showing larger anomalies than those over the ocean. The Arctic (north of 60°N) near-surface temperature anomaly is more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre shows negative anomalies, the so-called warming hole, which has been liked to a reduction in the AMOC. Skill is high in most regions apart from parts of the North Pacific, some areas in Asia, Australia, and the Southern Ocean (Figure 12), giving medium to high confidence…..


NOTE: My yellow highlighting throughout this post