"In the earnings reports, companies have bragged about how they have managed to be ahead of the inflation curve, how they have managed to jack up prices more than their costs and as a result have delivered these record profits"

“Australia isn’t experiencing a wage-price spiral, it’s at the beginning of a price-profit spiral,” said Australia Institute chief economist, Dr Richard Denniss.

“The national accounts show it is rising profits, not rising costs, that are driving Australia’s inflation. While workers are being asked to make sacrifices in the name of controlling inflation, the data makes clear that it is the corporate sector that needs to tighten its belt.”

The report points out that wage growth was at record low levels, while the profit share was at a near-record share of GDP.” 

[The Guardian, 18 July 2022]

Corporations are causing inflation by passing on price increases. They are doing this to protect and grow their profits, the same reason why they are refusing decent wage rises https://t.co/1imWMHBBEA

— Sally McManus (@sallymcmanus) July 17, 2022

The Australia Institute, Are wages or profits driving Australia’s inflation? An analysis of the National Accounts, July 2022, excerpts:

Introduction

In recent months the role of wages in driving inflation has been frequently discussed, with many commentators expressing concern that Australia risks a ‘wage price spiral’.

For example:

“Aggressive wages growth will only spur further inflation growth.”

— Andrew Mackellar, CEO of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry

“We are now at risk of a wages and inflation and interest rates death spiral.”

— Innes Willox, CEO of Australian Industry Group

“In the current circumstances, there is a clear risk that a high increase in wages without improved workplace productivity would fuel inflation and increase the likelihood of a steeper rise in interest rates to the detriment of growth and job creation.”

— Innes Willox, CEO of Australian Industry Group

The fear that wage growth has, or could, play a significant role in Australia’s inflation typically ignores the fact that, as shown in Figure 1, real wage growth is at historically low levels and has been for some time.

While wage growth clearly has not been the driving force of recent increases in Australian inflation, or indeed inflation around the world, the continuing impact of COVID 19 and the sharp increase in global energy prices associated with Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine clearly have.

What causes inflation?

Inflation refers to an overall increase in the level of prices in an economy. According to the International Monetary Fund:

Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.

While much is made of the link between increases in the costs of inputs (such as the price of oil) and increases in prices (such as the price of petrol) in fact many firms have a high degree of discretion about how much, if any, of an increase in costs they will pass on in the form of higher prices.

In short, if firms choose to absorb all of an increase in cost rather than increase prices the cost increases will lead to a reduction in profit not an increase in prices. Similarly, if firms pass on price increases that are more than enough to cover an increase in their production costs then profits will rise. In turn, macroeconomic data on economy-wide changes in prices and the share of GDP flowing to workers and profits can shed light on both the underlying sources of inflation and the distributional consequences of firms’ responses to rising production costs.

While spokespeople for large companies often suggest they have ‘no choice’ but to increase their prices when their costs increase not only do they have the choice to accept lower profits, a closer examination of their language makes clear that they face a range of choices.

For example, in attempting to explain how he had ‘no choice’ but to increase prices in his stores in early 2002, Gerry Harvey, the Executive Chairman of the retail chain Harvey Norman, actually made clear the range of choices he did face:

If a guy down the road drops the price, we drop the price,

If we drop the price, they drop the price.

But if it’s costing you all 10 per cent more than it was yesterday, they’re all going to put up their prices (because) they’ve got no choice.

Mr Harvey makes clear that his company is willing and able to choose to lower prices to match his competitors pricing, even in the absence of a change in cost. He also makes clear that he expects other firms not to absorb any increase in costs and that his firm and his competitors are all likely to increase their prices if costs increase by 10 percent, but it is not clear by how much his firm, or others, would chooses to increase their prices by.

Intriguingly, he ends this explanation by saying firms have no choice, even though all firms have different costs structures and his opening statement is that he would lower his price to match a cheaper offer by a competitor.

As all firms have slightly different cost structures, contract terms for inputs, bottoming costs and exposures to market rents it is inconceivable that all firms in any industry would experience identical changes in price and, in turn, the choices firms make about their price setting in response to changes in cost reflect both their current rates of profit and their willingness to gain or lose market share…..

In short, while in the long run firms must set prices sufficient to cover their costs of production, there is no direct link between costs of production and prices beyond the desire of firms to maintain, or increase, their profits. While firms in new industries seeking rapid growth often deliberately set their prices below their costs in, companies like Santos are currently enjoying a significant increase in price that is entirely unrelated to their cost of production.

Given that profits currently account for a record share of GDP there is simply no truth behind the assertion that the Australian corporate sector has ‘no choice’ but to pass on cost increases in full in the form of higher prices. Indeed, the rising profit share of GDP suggests that Australian firms have, for some time, been choosing to increase their prices faster than their costs have been rising. By definition this causes higher inflation…..

The European Central Bank’s analysis of the role of profits in driving inflation

In a recent speech, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the board of the European Central Bank, said “profits have recently been a key contributor to total domestic inflation” ……

Ms Schnabel went on to state that:

many firms have been able to expand their unit profits in an environment of global excess demand despite rising energy prices… The resilience of profits is particularly evident in those sectors most heavily exposed to global conditions, such as the industry and agricultural sector.

And:

To put it more provocatively, many euro area firms, though by no means all, have gained from the recent surge in inflation. The fortunes of businesses and households have diverged outside of the euro area, too, with corporate profits in many advanced economies surging over the past few quarters.

Poorer households are often hit particularly hard – not only do they suffer from historically high inflation reducing their real incomes, they also do not benefit from higher profits through stock holdings or other types of participation.…..

Australian results

The methodology used by the ECB to decompose recent shifts in price levels and attribute them to shifts in wages, profits and taxes can be applied to Australian data to show the contribution of each to inflation.

The Australia Institute applied the ECB method to annual data for the financial years 2005 to 2021 and quarterly data for June 2021 to March 2022 (the most recent quarter for which data is available). Annual data was used where possible to minimise the volatility in the underlying data caused by COVID-19 support payments affecting tax and subsidies.

The Australian data provides even more stark results than the ECB’s. Figure 5 shows that unit labour costs played almost no role in inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) over the period 2013 to 2021 and had typically contributed less than half of the GDP deflator prior to 2013.

For the three quarters of data available for 2021–22, encompassing the current uptick in the CPI, labour costs have played an insignificant role, accounting for only 0.6 percentage points of the 4.1 percentage point increase in the GDP deflator (15 percent of the total).

Meanwhile profits have accounted for 2.5 percentage points of the increase in the GDP deflator (about 60 percent of the total).…..

Read the full 15 page report here.

Billionaire business owners and industry lobbyists have other ways of saying our profits are more important than people without ever mentioning the word. Here is a recent example.

ABC News, 17 July 2022:

Head of the Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Paul Guerra, welcomed the announcement but said the government must ensure it keeps the balance between supporting people in need and running the economy into debt.

"The federal government has told us the pandemic is not over," Mr Guerra said.

"The current wave seems to be stronger than we might have all first thought so we think it's a good thing that support is being provided there for those who are in need.

"That said, we'd like to make sure they come off as soon as the current risk is over so we can accelerate our way as we recover out of COVID."

BACKGROUND

Across the board record profit taking is not just an Australian phenomenon….

Political economist Assistant Professor Isabella M. Weber speaking on U.S. NPR radio program "All Things Considered", 13 February 2022:

Companies always want to maximize profits, right? In the current context, they suddenly cannot deliver as much anymore as they used to. And this creates an opening where they can say, well, we are facing increasing costs. We are facing all these issues. So we can explain to our customers that we are raising our prices. No one knows how much exactly these prices should be increased. And everybody has some sort of an understanding that, oh, yeah, there are issues, so, yes, of course companies are increasing prices in ways in which they could not justify in normal times.

But this does not mean that the actual amount of price increase is justified by the increase in costs. And as a matter of fact, what we have seen is that profits are skyrocketing, which means that companies have increased prices by more than cost. In the earnings reports, companies have bragged about how they have managed to be ahead of the inflation curve, how they have managed to jack up prices more than their costs and as a result have delivered these record profits. [my yellow highlighting]

Climate change, distant war & a continuing global pandemic are all impacting on household budgets and business in Australia right now

With La Niña conditions expected to continue above average rainfall over Winter months, higher commercial and residential electricity prices to be reflected in quarterly bills sometime after 1 July 2022, petrol prices at the pump making life harder for small business and households alike, food prices rapidly rising and the loss of commercial passenger flights to Lismore and Grafton airports with a significant reduction in flights to Ballina, Northern Rivers residents are going to have to dig a little deeper to find that fortitude the region’s communities are known for.

BACKGROUND

ANZ Research, Agricultural Insight, 31 May 2022. “Global Food Crisis To Worsen”, exceprt:

Bringing it home

Food shortages are expected to worsen as climatic issues, energy shortages, the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine all impact the world’s ability to produce sufficient food. China appears to be one step ahead of the rest of the world in terms of securing additional food supplies. Their policy to increase their reserves of imported products is now serving them well as other countries scramble to import product at inflated prices.

High global food prices will cause hunger in developing nations and erode wealth globally, as it will continue to underpin inflation. Food-exporting nations like Australia and New Zealand may continue to benefit in a net sense from high commodity prices, but it’s hard going for lower-income earners. In addition, as global prices become too expensive, demand will fall, as consumers’ ability to purchase higher-value proteins such as dairy products and red meats is reduced. Demand for basic foodstuffs such as grains is not expected to wane to the same extent – people have to eat.

Therefore the world will need to wait for global supply to increase before these markets rebalance and prices temper.

It’s also worth noting that high food prices are not conducive to geopolitical stability. Hunger induces migration and topples governments. The food crisis is another factor to add to the growing list of potential geopolitical risks as the world tentatively emerges from the shadow of COVID-19. [my yellow highlighting]

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Consumer Priece Index: March Quarter 2022, 27 April 2022:

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% this quarter.

• Over the twelve months to the March 2022 quarter, the CPI rose 5.1%.

• The most significant price rises were New dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+5.7%) and Automotive fuel (+11.0%)….

Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 2.8% since the previous December 2021 quarter and 4.3% since March Quarter 2021. Health prices also rose 2.3% since the previous quarter and 3.5% since March Quarter 2021. Education prices went up by 4.5% since the previous quarter and 4.7% since March Quarter 2021. Housing prices rose by 2.4% from the previous quarter and 6.7% since last year’s March quarter. While Transport prices rose 4.2% since the previous quarter and a whopping 13.7% since last year’s March quarter.

With the exception of Clothing and footwear every CPI benchmark rose since the previous quarter.

The Guardian, 1 June 2022:

Australia is set for its third bumper season of crops in a row, but the increased production will probably bring little relief at the cash register as rising global demand pushes prices skyward.

Australian farmers will plant an area almost the size of England this winter as they try to take advantage of soaring global food prices and a third year of good rains.

The quality of production, though, may be hit by waterlogged fields and reduced fertiliser use as those costs surge, according to Rabobank. Local manufacturers, too, say they’re under strain as raw material and other prices climb and not all of the increases can be passed on.

This winter, farmers will plant a record 23.83m hectares, up 1% on last year, and just shy of England’s 24.36m total area, the bank said in its Winter Crop Outlook. That tally is also 11% more than the five-year average, with wheat plantings up 1.4% and canola, an oilseed, up by 20.9%. Plantings of barley, oats and pulses have dropped…..

Too much rain, though, has forced some farmers to delay or even replant crops – including three plantings of canola in some parts of New South Wales, Voznesenski said.

Other challenges include higher costs for diesel and agrochemicals from pesticides to fertilisers. And while prices have been hitting record levels globally, limited export capacity has hindered exports, meaning farmers have missed out on some of the best prices, he said.

However, Tanya Barden, chief executive of the Food & Grocery Council, said local food manufacturers hadn’t seen much benefit. They were struggling from unprecedented steepening prices for all manner of inputs, from wheat to energy and freight and packaging costs.

“Input costs had risen by 50% over the last decade, and so profitability has dropped from $8bn [a year] to $5bn, and capital investment stagnated,” Barden said. “Industry now is not in a position where it’s able to keep absorbing all these massive additional levels of cost increases.”

While grocery food prices rose 5.3% in the year to March, according to ABS data, they rose 4% in the previous three months alone, she said.

With the full impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Covid-related disruptions in China still to be felt, it was likely food price inflation would quicken in this and coming quarters, she said.

A separate report by ANZ on Tuesday, meanwhile, argued the world faced a “prolonged global food crisis” caused by lost exports from Russia and Ukraine, two of the biggest exporters…..

Susan Kilsby, an agriculture economist with ANZ, said food inflation is going to be an issue that will “plague Australia and most other countries” well into 2023.

“Demand for grains tends to be relatively inelastic, so for global grain prices to ease we really need to see an increase in the supply of grain that is available to be exported globally,” Kilsby said.

While wheat plantings in Australia will be large by historical levels, yields may fall from the highs of recent years.

“La Niña brings more rains in Australia and Asia, while drought in the Americas,” she said, adding the timing of the rainfall can also have a big effect on output.

Rabobank in its report noted Australian farmers have been investing heavily in new storage capacity to cope with increased production and also the limited capacity of grain handlers and exporters to move their crops.

Supply chain snags, however, mean some of the additional spending is not resulting in the equipment arriving.

In some cases, farmers “can order them, but they’re not even told when they can get” the extra storage, with waits stretching out to a year.

“There’s a lot less certainty in their world at the moment,” Rabobank’s Voznesenski said. [my yellow highlighting]

Soybean farmers on NSW North Coast suffer near-total crop losses. Region grows high-end soy bean crop for foods such as tofu with estimated value of $20 million. Ongoing rain after Feburary-March flooding is causing further losses.

That record flood caused extensive damage to the NSW Sugar Milling Co-operative’s three sugar mills on the Northern Rivers and 3,000 tonnes of raw sugar had to be condemned at Harwood, but it is expected that Condong on the Tweed and Harwood on the Clarence will be operational for the late June start to crushing while the Broadwater enterprise on the Richmond, which experienced extensive damage to the steam and power generation facility may not be fully operational until the end of August.

Australian Institute of Petroleum, Weekly Petrol Prices Report: Week Ending 29 May 2022:

Average Petrol retail price this week: 200.0 cents

Average Petrol wholesale price this week: 189.7 cents

Prices have been rising steadily. With the average petrol retail price for the week ending 1 May 2022 coming in at 178.2 cents and the average petrol wholesale price at 163.1 cents.

The week ending 8 May saw the retail price at 179.6 cents and wholesale price 169.2 cents. By the week ending 15 May average prices had risen to retail 185.0 cents and wholesale 178.7 cents. The following week ending 22 May averages prices had again increased to retail 199.1 cents and wholesale 183.3 cents.

Australian Energy Market, AER Statement – Retail Market, 1 June 2022, excerpt:

As outlined in both our Q1 Quarterly Wholesale Report and our Final Determination of the Default Market Offer last week, there continues to be volatility in the wholesale energy market resulting in added cost pressures on both retailers and consumers.

The AER is closely monitoring the situation in both the wholesale and retail markets and ensuring all participants are complying with the law and the rules…..

ABS, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, March 2022, 1 June 2022:

The La Nina weather cycle influenced Australia’s weather during summer and early autumn, leading to severe flooding in areas of south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales.

The impacts of these events can be seen in key national accounts aggregates. Severe storms disrupted mining and construction activity, resulting in reduced gross value added for these industries. Residential and commercial properties were damaged, resulting in increased non-life insurance claims and governments increased spending on defence assistance for affected areas.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Industry Gross Value Added

The response to the L-strain outbreak of COVID-19 led to a large fall in gross value added (GVA) in the June quarter 2020, driven by a record decrease in market sector GVA. Impacts were widespread throughout market industries, with only Mining and Financial and Insurance Services recording growth. The largest falls were seen in tourism and hospitality-related industries, reflecting the restrictions imposed on movement.

Non-market GVA declined driven by Health Care and Social Assistance. Elective surgeries were cancelled and visits to health care professionals declined as households sought to limit the spread of the virus. Both market and non-market GVA partially recovered in the September quarter 2020 as restrictions were lifted.

The Delta strain of COVID-19 had similar effects on market and non-market GVA, with trading and mobility restrictions reducing demand for many goods and services. The falls were not as pronounced as those that occurred during the L-strain, as fewer states experienced outbreaks. Additionally, trading frameworks such as COVID-19 safety plans were developed to allow some businesses in affected states to keep operating under restrictions such as mandatory QR check-ins for patrons and venue capacity limits.

The absence of lockdowns under the Omicron variant resulted in a lower impact on demand. While restrictions were less stringent, hours worked fell due to high COVID-19 infection rates and subsequent isolation requirements. Market sector GVA rose in the March quarter 2022, with the reopening of domestic and international borders. Growth was recorded in travel-related industries such as Transport, Postal and Warehousing and Accommodation and Food Services. Non-market GVA fell due to a contraction in Health Care and Social Assistance, however the fall was less severe than for the prior strains.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

UPDATE

ABC News, 3 June 2022:

Australian manufacturers facing massive increases in gas prices are warning they could be forced to shut, with tens of thousands of jobs on the line.

Gas prices on the spot market have quadrupled amid supply constraints, local coal-fired power station outages, and the war in Ukraine.

Australia's largest plastics producer Qenos buys about 40 per cent of its gas on the open market.

"Prices have gone up in the spot market to between $30 and $40 a gigajoule. In fact, that's in a month alone, that's an increase of 300 to 400 per cent," Qenos chief executive Steve Bell said.

"For energy-intensive businesses like ours that is not sustainable."….

On Wednesday, AEMO triggered the Gas Supply Guarantee Mechanism for the first time since it was introduced in 2017. The mechanism calls for the market to release supply and come up with a plan to address a potential shortfall.

Analyst Gilles Walgenwitz said without enough renewables capacity in the grid to make up the shortfall, local coal fired power station outages were also pushing up gas prices.

"We have about six gigawatts of coal capacity missing in Queensland, six gigawatts in New South Wales. That's huge, when you compare to the total capacity normally available," he said.

"And so, we have much more gas power generation coming into play to meet the demand and it happens that at the same time, the price of gas is extremely high."