It would appear there is some likelihood that the next three calendar months will see temperatures rise above median and a 60 per cent chance of an increase in median rainfall across New South Wales generally.
With the predicted above median rainfall occurring inland as far as Tibooburra & Broken Hill and along the length of the coastal zone.
The Northern NSW section of this coast zone - from Clarence Valley to Tweed Shire and inland as far as Lismore City - having a 60 to 74 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall.
Brief Outline
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), retrieved 14 March 2022:
Issued: 10 March 2022
April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of northern and eastern Australia, with small areas of south-west WA and western Tasmania likely to be below median. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall.
April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for western, northern and south-eastern parts of Australia. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days.
Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median across virtually all of Australia.
Climate influences include the weakening La Niña in the Pacific Ocean.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
La Niña remains active in the tropical Pacific. Outlooks indicate the La Niña is likely to end around mid-autumn 2022, with a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions. While this La Niña event is weakening, it is expected to continue to contribute to the wetter than median outlooks for parts of eastern Australia.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BOM: Median rainfall April-June (1981-2018)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wetter April to June likely for northern and eastern Australia
Issued: 10 March 2022
April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of the NT, Queensland, south-east SA, and most of NSW (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Some small areas of south-west WA and western Tasmania are likely to be below median (chance of exceeding median is less than 40%). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June across the northern half of the NT, northern and western Queensland and small areas of western and coastal NSW (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance). However, it should be noted that seasonal rainfall at this time of the year is starting to decrease, so unusually high rainfall for these areas isn't as high as recent months.
While the April outlook reflects the three-month outlook, the May outlook suggests below median rainfall is likely for south-western Australia, and western Tasmania, and only a small part of central Queensland is likely to be above median.
Past accuracy for April to June rainfall is moderate to high for most areas of Australia, with low to very low accuracy across much of eastern WA, northern and western SA, the central NT, western Victoria and southern Tasmania.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Warmer April to June days and nights for most areas
Issued: 10 March 2022
April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for most of WA, the northern and central NT, Queensland, northern and southern NSW, south-east SA, Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of WA, the northern and central NT, most of Queensland except the far south, most of Victoria, and Tasmania (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance), with the highest chances in the tropical north, and Tasmania.
Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median almost Australia wide (chances are greater than 60%), with much of northern and eastern Australia very likely (chances are greater than 80%).
There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of Australia except much of southern WA and western SA (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance). The highest likelihoods are across far northern Australia and Tasmania.
Past accuracy for April to June maximum temperatures is high to very high for almost all of Australia, with moderate accuracy in a band stretching through central WA and across most of SA. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across northern Australia, grading to low to very low accuracy across southern parts of the mainland. Tasmania has moderate accuracy in the south, with low accuracy in the north.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Historical median and mean rainfall Lismore, Ballina, and Grafton NSW for April, May and June.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No comments:
Post a Comment