Another bad Newspoll for the Coalition published on 27 February 2022. But which Morrison Government MPs might lose their seats if the election night results were as bad?

GRAPH: The Australian

 

Newspoll published 27 February 2022 in The Australian.

Survey conducted by YouGov on 23-26 February 2022.

Federal Primary Votes:

Coalition 35% (up 1)

Labor 41% (unchanged)

Greens 9% (up 1)

United Australia Party 4%

One Nation 3% (unchanged)

Federal Two-Party Preferred Vote:

Coalition 45% (unchanged)

Labor 55% (unchanged)

Preferred Prime Minister:

Morrison 42% (down 1)

Albanese 40% (up 2)

Unsure 18%

Albanese Performance:

Approve 44% (up 4) Disapprove% 43 (down 3)

Morrison Performance:

Approve 43% (up 3) Disapprove 55% (down 1)

Based on Antony Green’s Election Calculator if a federal general election had been held on 26 February then Labor would have gained government with 92 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 53 seats and, other parties/independents would have held 6 seats.

Under this scenario Labor would gain 23 former Coalition seats and it might lead to a potential outcome such as this:

Banks NSW ALP 0.2% - David Coleman MP defeated

Ryan QLD ALP 0.5% - Julian Simmonds MP defeated

Hasluck WA ALP 0.7% - Ken Wyatt MP defeated

Menzies VIC ALP 1.0% - new Liberal candidate Keith Wolahan defeated

Bennelong NSW ALP 1.1% - no new Liberal candidate to date but defeat expected

Lindsay NSW ALP 1.5% - Melissa McIntosh MP defeated

La Trobe VIC ALP 1.6% - Jason Wood MP defeated

Brisbane QLD ALP 1.6% - Trevor Evans MP defeated

Deakin VIC ALP 1.8% - Michael Sukkar MP defeated

Dickson QLD ALP 1.9% - Peter Dutton MP defeated

Robertson NSW ALP 2.3% - Lucy Wicks MP defeated

Leichhardt QLD ALP 2.3% - Warren Entsch MP defeated

Flinders VIC ALP 2.4% - Zoe McKenzie new Liberal candidate defeated

Pearce WA ALP 2.8% - Linda Aitken new Liberal candidate defeated

Higgins VIC ALP 2.8% - Katie Allen MP defeated

Longman QLD ALP 3.2% - Terry Young MP defeated

Reid NSW ALP 3.3% - Fiona Martin MP defeated

Casey VIC ALP 3.4% - Aaron Violi new Liberal candidate defeated

Braddon TAS ALP 3.4% - Gavin Pearce MP defeated

Swan WA ALP 4.7% - Steve Irons MP defeated

Bass TAS ALP 6.1% - Bridget Archer MP defeated

Chisholm VIC ALP 6.3% - Gladys Lui MP defeated

Boothby SA ALP 6.6% - Nicole Flint MP defeated