Thursday, 8 January 2015

Remembering Julia Gillard - Part Two

Julia Gillard became Prime Minister of Australia on 24 June 2010. After the federal election in August 2010 she formed a minority government. Ms. Gillard ceased to be prime minister on 27 June 2013.

Below are the measurable effects of her government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

Emissions increased in the June quarter 2012, with trend emissions growth subdued at 0.0% and seasonally adjusted and weather normalised emissions increasing 0.4% on the
previous quarter (Figures 1-3).
The fugitive emissions sector increased in trend emissions for the June quarter 2012 (section 2.4). This increase was offset by decreases in emissions from the electricity (section 2.1) and industrial processes (section 2.5) sectors, which resulted in zero trend growth for the quarter.
Annual emissions for the year to June 2012 are estimated to be 551.0 Mt CO2-e. This represents a small decline in emissions of 0.1% when compared to the year to June 2011.
The national carbon pricing mechanism (popularly known as the carbon tax) introduced by the Labor Gillard Government began on 1 July 2012.

Emissions increased in the June quarter 2013, with both trend and seasonally adjusted emissions growing by 0.3% (Figures 1-3).
Agriculture (section 2.6), industrial processes (section 2.5) and transport (section 2.3) sectors contributed to the quarterly trend increase in emissions. This was partially offset by trend decreases in emissions in the stationary energy excluding electricity (section 2.2) and fugitive emissions (section 2.4) sectors.
Annual emissions for 2012-13 are estimated to be 545.9 Mt CO2-e. This represents a 0.1% decline in emissions when compared with the previous year.

Emissions increased in the June quarter 2014, with trend emissions growing 0.4% on March 2014; increases in the stationary energy (section 2.2), electricity (section 2.1) and agriculture (section 2.6) sectors were partially offset by decreases in transport (section 2.3) and fugitive emissions (section 2.4). Seasonally adjusted emissions increased 0.2% (Figures 1-3).
Annual emissions for 2013-14 are estimated to be 542.6 Mt CO2-e3. This represents a 1.4% decline in emissions when compared with the previous year.
Over 2013-14, there was a decline in emissions from electricity (section 2.1), reflecting lower electricity demand and changes in the generation mix. Emissions from transport (section 2.3), industrial processes (section 2.5) and agriculture (section 2.6) also declined over the year. These declines were partially offset by increases in the fugitive emissions (section 2.4) and stationary energy (excluding electricity) (section 2.2) sectors.
The national carbon pricing mechanism was ended by the Abbott Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government on 1 July 2014.

Across the National Electricity Market (NEM) we are tracking towards an extra 14 million tonnes CO2 for FY2014-15 compared to FY2013-14. If we get lower than average rain, electricity sector emissions might grow by a few more million tonnes and exceed 10% over the year.
The pertinent numbers are shown in the figure below. In the first hundred days since the repeal NEM emissions were up 4 million tonnes on the equivalent period last financial year according to figures from the market operator AEMO.

In the June 2014 CEDEX® report we said “it now appears that June 2014 may mark the low point of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions for the foreseeable future”.  That is what is now happening. 

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