Electoral redistribution in federal seats and what it might mean on NSW Far North Coast in 2016

Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), Proposed redistribution of New South Wales into electoral divisions, October 2015:

A total of 944,592 electors or 19.42 per cent of electors in NSW would change from their current federal electoral division under the proposed redistribution. Once a redistribution is final, the AEC automatically transfers existing elector enrolments, where required, to the correct electoral division.

The augmented Electoral Commission has adopted boundary changes* in the Cowper,Page, and Richmond electorates proposed by the Redistribution Committee for New South Wales.

Electoral boundary changes on NSW Far North Coast according to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC):

* Projected enrolment in the existing Division of Cowper is 100 289. This electoral division must gain at least 6 384 electors, or up to 14 122 electors, from other electoral divisions to fall within the acceptable numerical tolerances.

The Committee proposes that the Division of Cowper gain 37 024 electors from the Division of Lyne in the southern part of Kempsey LGA and that part of Port Macquarie-Hastings LGA including Telegraph Point and Port Macquarie.

The Committee proposes that the Division of Cowper transfer 23 114 electors to the proposed Division of Page in the northern part of Coffs Harbour LGA from Lowanna, Coramba and Sapphire Beach, and its part of Clarence Valley LGA.

The changes result in a projected enrolment for the proposed Division of Cowper of 114 199 or a variation from the projected enrolment quota of plus 3.31 per cent…..

As a result, there are less than optimal outcomes in terms of communities of interest. The proposed Division of Cowper contains the major centres of Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie and therefore splits the two respective LGAs. The locality of Wauchope is also split from Port Macquarie. The proposed electoral division does however unite Kempsey LGA. The alternative involves crossing the Great Dividing Range.

* Projected enrolment in the existing Division of Page is 98 008. This electoral division must gain at least 8 665 electors, or up to 16 403 electors, from other electoral divisions to fall within the acceptable numerical tolerances.

The Committee proposes that the Division of Page gain 23 114 electors from the Division of Cowper in the northern part of Coffs Harbour LGA south to Lowanna, Coramba and Sapphire Beach, and that part of Clarence Valley LGA south of Maclean, east of Grafton and north of Glenreagh, two electors from the Division of New England near Dorrigo, and 6 863 electors from the Division of Richmond in the Lismore LGA.

The Committee proposes that the Division of Page transfer 13 693 electors to the proposed Division of Richmond in that part of Ballina LGA east of Alstonville and south to Empire Vale. The Committee further proposes minor changes in the boundary with the proposed Division of New England, involving no elector movement.

The changes result in a projected enrolment for the proposed Division of Page of 114 294 or a variation from the projected enrolment quota of plus 3.39 per cent…..

The Committee notes that Lismore, Ballina and Clarence Valley LGAs are already split. Mindful of their principle regarding LGAs in rural areas, the Committee sought to minimise the incidence of split rural LGAs. Having provided electors from the Ballina LGA to the proposed Division of Richmond, the Committee was able to unite the Lismore and Clarence Valley LGAs in the proposed Division of Page.

* Projected enrolment in the existing Division of Richmond is 100 573. This electoral division must gain at least 6 100 electors, or up to 13 838 electors, from other electoral divisions to fall within the acceptable numerical tolerances.

The Committee proposes that the Division of Richmond gain 13 693 electors from the Division of Page in that part of Ballina LGA east of Alstonville and south to Empire Vale east of the Pacific Highway.

The Committee proposes that the Division of Richmond transfer 6 863 electors to the proposed Division of Page in the Lismore LGA. 419. The changes result in a projected enrolment for the proposed Division of Richmond of 107 403 or a variation from the projected enrolment quota of minus 2.84 per cent.

The Division of Richmond had to gain electors, and its position in the north-eastern corner of the state meant that the required numbers could only be obtained from the Division of Page. The Committee notes that both the Lismore and Ballina LGAs are already split. Mindful of their principle regarding LGAs in rural area, the Committee sought to minimise the incidence of split rural LGAs. The numerical requirements of the Electoral Act determined that the balance of Ballina LGA could not be transferred into the proposed Division of Richmond. The Committee therefore proposes to move the boundary further south in the Ballina LGA to include the town of Ballina. This allowed the Committee to unite the Lismore LGA in the Division of Page.

Two renaming proposals on the NSW Far North Coast were rejected by the augmented Electoral Commission:

* Division of Cowper proposed to be renamed Paterson after Andrew ‘Banjo’ Paterson (1864– 1941), Australian author and poet

* Division of Richmond proposed to be renamed Bandler – after Faith Bandler, AC (1918–2015), in recognition of her role as a leader of the 1967 referendum campaign in favour of two constitutional amendments relating to Indigenous Australians. 

Both these proposed changes submitted by electors were apparently rejected because it is policy to retain where possible the names given to electorates at Federation.

Changes in electoral boundaries are expected to be gazetted in February.

Subsequent changes to margins electorates are held by:

Cowper is held by Nationals with a margin of 11.7 – now predicted to be 13.8

Page is held by Nationals with a margin of 2.5 – now predicted to be 3.1

Richmond is held by Labor with a margin of 3.0 – now predicted to be 1.8.

The Daily Examiner, 15 December 2016:

KEVIN Hogan will be the federal MP for all residents of the Clarence Valley from next month after the approval of proposed electoral boundary changes.

Mr Hogan's electorate of Page will now stretch from the Queensland border to Sapphire Beach in the south.

Towns and villages such as Maclean, Gulmarrad, Cowper, Glenreagh, Red Rock and Woolgoolga, that had previously been part of the Cowper electorate, will shift to Page once the change becomes official on February 25. Cowper will now cover the area from Coffs Harbour to Port Macquarie.

The  Australian reporting on some of the implications for the rest of the country, 12 January 2016:

A radical electoral redistribution threatens to neutralise the effect of Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity in NSW, putting at risk at least three Coalition seats and slicing the margin of another.

As Bill Shorten today embarks on a three-week mini-campaign to kickstart the election year, the ­Liberal Party has lashed the Australian Electoral Commission for pushing ahead with its proposed boundaries, ignoring “extensive community concerns” while greatly altering the character of ­affected seats.

The AEC, which is due to finalise the redistribution next month, has received almost 800 objections to the proposed boundary shake-up, which will see almost 20 per cent of electors in NSW transferred to a new federal seat and abolishes the Labor seat of Charlton, south of Newcastle. A new safe Liberal seat of Burt is to be ­created in Western Australia.

In an objection lodged with the AEC, Tony Nutt, the Liberal Party’s former NSW director and now federal director, criticises the commission for “unnecessary elector disruption” arising from the boundary changes that will see some regional local government areas split for the first time.

The proposed changes to reduce the number of NSW electorates from 48 to 47 will see three Liberal Party seats — Barton, Paterson and Dobell — become notionally Labor while the safe seat of Macarthur becomes marginal.

Senior Liberal sources say hopes of a boost to the party’s ­fortunes from the new Prime Minister’s popularity have been dashed, but strategists are confident his rise in the polls will help to contain losses. The party is also ­expected to pick up Burt…..

In its objection to the AEC, the Liberal Party says the commission’s “extraordinary” decision to include inner-city suburbs into the otherwise overwhelmingly suburban Barton, “fails miserably on community of interest grounds”.

“Yet again the committee has failed to recognise the very clear differences and areas of interest that inner-city electors have to electors that reside in more suburban areas,” the objection says. “Divisions that seek to facilitate the representation of both these often opposing communities are destined to fail the community.”

Nickolas Varvaris, who holds the seat of Barton on a wafer-thin 0.3 per cent margin, is almost certain to lose on the proposed new boundaries as the seat becomes a Labor electorate with an estimated margin of 8.3 per cent. Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese is expected to shift from his seat of Grayndler — now seen as vulnerable to the Greens — into Barton to contest the next election.

Scott Morrison has also lodged his “strongest objection” about the effect of the redistribution on his seat of Cook, which he says will split the community of the Sutherland Shire for the first time in 100 years in a move that will affect more than 60,000 electors but has negligible impact on his very safe margin. “The proposed boundaries needlessly disrupt one of our country’s strongest communities of interest,” the Treasurer says.

Around Newcastle, where the seats of Dobell and Paterson are now notionally Labor, the Liberal Party is urging the committee revisit the draft boundaries in their entirety. The seat of Dobell, held by Karen McNamara, switches from a Liberal marginal seat of 0.7 per cent to a notional Labor seat with a margin of 0.3 per cent, while Bob Baldwin’s seat of Paterson is more radically altered, changing from a Liberal seat with a margin of 9.8 per cent to a marginal Labor seat of 1.3 per cent.

Macarthur, held by Russell Matheson, has its margin slashed from 11.4 per cent to 2.8 per cent.

The party has also slammed the decision of the AEC to move the locality of Camden and its surrounds out of Macarthur and in to the regional seat of Hume, held by one of the government’s rising stars, Angus Taylor. While the seat becomes safer for the Liberal Party under the new boundary, Mr Taylor is concerned the character of the rural Liberal seat will be “substantially different”. 

Yass Tribune, 15 January 2016:

PROPOSED federal electoral boundary changes issued on Friday will see Hume lose large parts of its rural west.

MP Angus Taylor says he’s extremely disappointed to lose the towns of Yass, Young, Cootamundra, Harden, Grenfell and Cowra…. 

Mr Taylor said while pundits predicted change in the the State’s north, nobody had anticipated the scale of the AEC’s proposed boundary shifts in southern NSW, not even the Liberal Party.

The Guardian, 15 January 2016:

Figures published by the ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, suggest the number of notionally Coalition seats in NSW will decline from 30 to 27 after the boundaries take effect, a development that is causing nervousness in Liberal ranks. The number of notionally Labor seats will increase from 18 to 20.

* AEC Media Release Augmented Electoral Commission decides names and boundaries of federal electoral divisions in New South Wales, 14 January 2016.