So what is Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey telling the country in the December 2014 Mid-Year Economic Outlook (MYEFO)?

What has the implementation of the Abbott Government's ideologically-driven economic policy left Australian families and businesses facing for the rest of its term in office?

For an in-depth look at the nation's prospects go to the MID‑YEAR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK 2014‑15.

For the time being here is the briefest of outlines:

The December 2013 MYEFO stated that tax receipts had reduced by more than $37 billion for the period 2013-14 to 2016-17 – now total taxation receipts have been revised down by $6.2 billion in 2014‑15 and $31.6 billion to 2017-18, bringing the total write down in tax receipts since the Government was elected to over $70 billion .

In December 2013 company tax receipts were revised down by $180 million in 2013-14 and $7.1 billion across the four years to 2016-17 – now a mere twelve months later company tax receipts are being revised down by $2.3 billion in 2014‑15 and $14.4 billion over the forward estimates.

Weaker wage and employment growth is expected to continue through to at least 2017-18 - with 2016-17 to 2017-18 wage growth now predicted to be much lower than was anticipated in the December 2013 MYEFO.

The unemployment rate will rise even further than the 6.25% predicted in December 2013 – it is now predicted to reach 6.5%* in 2015 and stay that high until at least June 2016.

In December 2013 the consumer price index for the 2014-15 financial year was supposed to come in at 2 – it is predicted to rise to 2.5.

Despite repeated warnings about a predicted sharp fall in commodity prices which the December 2013 MYEFO failed to fully recognise – by December 2014 there appears to be an element of faux surprise at finding how sharp that fall actually was and a decision made to cast iron ore prices as the arch-villain of the piece.

The December 2013 MYEFO stated that the underlying cash deficit would be $33.billion for 2014-15 – now an underlying cash deficit of $40.4 billion is expected in 2014‑15.

In 2013-14 net government debt was $191.5 billion. Public debt (on which interest has to be paid) will be $425 billion in 2014-15

Total interest expenses on all public debt have risen from an predicted $16.3 billion for 2014-15 in the December 2013 MYEFO to $16.3 billion for the same financial year in the December 2014 MYEFO and, are projected to rise to $19.9 billion by 2017-18.

Unsurprisingly, despite May 2014 budget cuts, further announced cutbacks in federal government agency numbers and public service employee numbers; Abbott Government gross operating expenses are predicted to rise from $119 billion in 2014-15 to $120.9 in 2016-17 and $125.2 billion in 2017-18.

Miraculously and perhaps over-optimistically, in the latest MYEFO the nation's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been revised up from 2.5% for the 2014-15 financial year and 3% for the 2015-16 to 2016-2017 financial years to 3% and 3.5% respectively. Nominal GDP has also been revised up.

In the face of all this Joe Hockey is telling the world that he will now have the budget back in a very small surplus by 2019-20. Presumably if the Abbott Government gets a second term and he remains as federal treasurer.

Hockeynomics at its best.

* An unemployment rate of 6.5% represents in excess of 803,952 Australians without a job and the regular pay packet which comes with it.

Tony Abbott's Real Christmas Message: Over 15 million Australians likely see the cost of their GP increase by at least $5 and perhaps much more

It’s December 2014 and Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott didn’t release his real Christmas Message on YouTube this year – he used a 9 December media release announcing he had cut Medicare rebate payments for standard GP visits by $5 and that there would be no Medicare fee increases for all services provided by GPs, medical specialists, allied health practitioners, optometrists and others until July 2018.

An est. 8 million patients, including children, pensioners, veterans, nursing home residents and others with concession cards would be exempt from the $5 co-payment.

That leaves over 15 million other Australians who are likely to find they have to pay extra to see their local doctor, even if the practice has a general policy of bulk billing patients for the current $37.05 Medicare standard consultation fee.

Given there is now also a requirement that general practitioners spend more time with patients to qualify for the standard consultation fee, many doctors may make the decision to abandon bulk billing altogether and charge an upfront fee of at least $60.

Medicare data for 2010-11 reveals that on the NSW North Coast an est. 83.9% of all medical services were bulk billed in the federal electorate of Richmond, 81.4% in the Cowper electorate and 72.6% in the Page electorate.

UPDATE

The Daily Mail 14 December 2014:

The Australian Medical Association (AMA) recommends GPs charge $75 for such consultations, meaning patients without concessions are usually out of pocket $37.95. But Dr Costa told The Newcastle Herald that because some doctors were already charging $80, it was likely some would be charging at least $100 by 2016.

Disgraced former Nationals MP Steven Rhett Cansdell wants to enter politics once more?

On 2 December 2014 The Daily Examiner reported that sixty-four year old Steven Rhett Cansdell is considering standing at the March 2015 Clarence Valley Council by-election.

This would not be his first foray into politics and voters need to think long and hard if his name turns up on the by-election ballot paper.

Cansdell previously served on Grafton City Council over a ten-year period commencing in 1993. 

This council was notorious for living well beyond its means - by 1999 it had used $1.722 million of internal reserves to fund current operating costs and was still running in deficit in June 2003. It disappeared in the forced amalgamation which saw the creation of Clarence Valley Council in February 2004.

After leaving local government Cansdell then stood at the next state election and entered the NSW Parliament on 22 March 2003 as the Nationals MP for Clarence.

He successfully stood for re-election in 2007 and 2011.

On 4 May 2011 Cansdell became Parliamentary Secretary for Police under the Minister for Police and Emergency Services Liberal MLC Mike Gallacher.

He resigned from Parliament on 16 December 2011 in the midst of questions concerning a statutory declaration and allegations that he (rather than one of his staff) was driving a speeding car caught by a traffic camera.

Twenty-two weeks after the state election Clarence electorate voters had to participate in the subsequent by-election. Based on the NSW Electoral Commission’s cost projection for the 2011 state election, the total bill for the two Clarence ballots would be in the vicinity of $903,000.

Politically, Cansdell appeared to sink from public sight after that by-election.

However, the details of Mr. Cansdell’s admitted wrongdoing and the local reaction lived on.

Political cartoon in The Daily Examiner on 24 January 2012:

Letter to the Editor in The Daily Examiner on 14 March 2012:

The Sydney Morning Herald reported on 19 January 2013:

LESSONS FROM POLITICAL HOUDINI

The award for the most outstanding public escape act of recent times must surely go to the former member for Clarence, Steve Cansdell. 

You recall Cansdell: he was the former professional boxer and parliamentary secretary for police who became the O'Farrell government's first political casualty only months after it took office. 

The then 60-year-old quit Parliament after his admission that he had falsified a statutory declaration to claim a staff member was driving when his car was snapped by a speed camera.
Cansdell was trying to avoid losing his driver's licence. Despite the incident occurring back in September 2005, he fell on his sword in September 2011, amid a chorus of sympathy from his Nationals colleagues. 

Cansdell was "paying a very heavy price for a lapse of judgment six years ago", the leader of the Nationals and Deputy Premier, Andrew Stoner, said at the time. 

Only later did it emerge that shortly before Cansdell put his hands up, the staff member in question, Kath Palmer, had blown the whistle on the episode to the Independent Commission Against Corruption. 

So if Cansdell was not quite pushed - he claimed he quit to save the government and the party from embarrassment - he was very firmly nudged. 

Not only had Palmer alleged the statutory declaration fraud, she alleged that Cansdell had also rorted a parliamentary staffing allowance by wrongly claiming it for the period she worked on the 2010 campaign of a Nationals colleague, Kevin Hogan, who was contesting the federal seat of Page. 

And so began a very strange - many would say disturbing - series of events involving the ICAC, the police and the Speaker of the NSW Parliament that remain unresolved to this day.
In October last year, just over a year after Cansdell walked into Grafton police station with his lawyer to make his admission, police announced they had concluded their investigation into the statutory declaration matter. 

"NSW Police Force will not instigate criminal proceedings," they said in a statement. 

What had happened? The statement explained police from the Coffs-Clarence local area command had identified the woman who signed the declaration but that "she declined to be interviewed by officers". 

Futhermore, it added, the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions had said it was "not satisfied there are reasonable prospects for conviction for a Commonwealth offence".
For the NSW police, that was the end of the matter. But they omitted a couple of key details. 

While it was true Palmer, through her lawyer, had refused to be formally interviewed, she had offered to make what is known as an "induced statement" - one given in return for indemnity from prosecution. 

According to Palmer's lawyer, Mark Spagnolo, the police had earlier made it known they intended to charge Palmer with perverting the course of justice for her role in the false statutory declaration. Any admission in an interview was likely to lead to her being charged. 

Police deny she was threatened with a charge but their decision to refuse her offer to supply an induced statement was rather ambitiously twisted to become Palmer "declined to be interviewed". 

Second, the Commonwealth DPP claimed it had been verballed. It said it had simply advised the NSW police that they were not satisfied it was a Commonwealth offence - a subtle but important difference. 

Things became even more intriguing when it emerged the ICAC had referred the allegation that Cansdell had rorted his parliamentary allowance to the Speaker of the NSW Parliament, Shelley Hancock, who was technically Palmer's employer. 

The ICAC referred the matter "for action as considered appropriate". But no action was taken for a year by Hancock, until Spagnolo released the letter publicly through Fairfax. 

After that Hancock, who is also the Liberal member for South Coast, promised that parliamentary officers would "review the material" sent by the ICAC. This included a spreadsheet containing the dates on which Palmer alleged Cansdell submitted claims for the allowance that differed from the days she worked. That was last October. 

What has happened since then? Hancock passed the matter to the executive manager of the Department of Parliamentary Services, Rob Stefanic, who responded that he was "unable to reach any conclusions regarding the veracity of the claims made by the former electorate officer". 

Stefanic added that because, in his opinion, the allegations were "of minor significance", that so much time had elapsed and that both Palmer and Cansdell had resigned, no further action should be taken "in the absence of more conclusive information". (Never mind that the allegations, if proven, are similar to those which saw two former Labor MPs, Angela D'Amore and Karyn Paluzzano, branded corrupt by ICAC.) 

When Hancock was asked if the Parliament would contact Palmer to request "more conclusive information", she said it would not. 

"As Ms Palmer did not make a complaint directly to the Parliament, the Parliament will not be contacting the complainant for further information." 

So, 18 months since Palmer made her official complaint, there the matter lies: a tangled mess of contradictory claims, dead ends and official inertia. 

Palmer is understood to be considering whether to pursue the matter with Parliament or drop it altogether to get on with her life. 

Spagnolo has called for an inquiry into the police handling of the matter. The silence has been deafening. 

Cansdell now says he has gone bankrupt. 

And, while there is no suggestion he is implicated, the man he is alleged to have helped out by fiddling his taxpayer-funded entitlements, Kevin Hogan, has won Nationals preselection to contest Page at this year's federal election. 

As a lesson in the frustrations of being a political whistleblower, it doesn't get much more instructive than that.

Clarence cricket clubs can be their own worst enemies

Most sports organisations appreciate the free publicity local newspapers provide them with so it both surprising and annoying to repeatedly see the manner in which some cricket clubs in the Clarence valley submit the results of their matches to The Daily Examiner. Too often incomplete score cards are submitted. The Examiner provides written reports to accompany most matches but it cannot be expected to work magic with the information some clubs supply.

Come on, local cricket clubs, lift your game. It cannot be too difficult for scorers who don't the names of the opposing team's members to ask who it was that caught a catch, made a stumping, bowled a batsman ...

 This post penned by Clarrie Rivers

So what has former Howard Government Minister Peter Reith been doing since he was exposed as lobbyist for the gas industry

When No Fibs reported this on 1 November 2013 it probably surprised very few people:

It was interesting to see the opinion piece written by Peter Reith for The Drum – Fracking scare campaigns threaten our prosperity – especially considering Reith is a paid political lobbyist and chairman of the Victorian Government’s task force on the eastern gas market.

“The public debate is soon mired in myriad false claims, partly because government has not ensured the public is fairly informed and because some activists have other political agendas,” writes Reith.

To ensure that the public is fairly informed, and agendas and vested interests are properly tabled, it should be noted that Peter Reith is a lobbyist for First State Advisors and Consultants Pty Ltd.

Who does First State Advisers lobby for?           

A full list of Reith’s clients is published on the government website.

Two major players in the coal seam gas industry are Reith’s clients: Thiess and the NSW Aboriginal Land Council.

Thiess has won a $1.8 billion contract from CSG producer QGC for the construction of gas compression facilities in Queensland’s Surat Basin.

Another of Reith’s lobbying clients, the NSW Aboriginal Land Council has applied to explore for coal seam gas beneath 40 per cent of the state, sparking outrage from indigenous and non-indigenous people alike….

It made the Gas Market Task Force final report predictable in its pro-unconventional gas conclusion:

Overall, the Taskforce considers that governments and industry should take collective action and adopt a greater sense of urgency to ensure the eastern gas market can adapt and take advantage of the significant structural changes occurring.

The focus of the Taskforce’s proposals for immediate action include facilitating new gas supplies and making the most of the sizeable gas resources available in eastern Australia. The Taskforce also supports a greater coordinated effort to implement existing national gas market reforms.

Potentially, a more ambitious package of integrated gas market reforms with the objective of increasing competition, liquidity and transparency in the eastern market could build on the existing national gas market reforms, but this requires more work and rigorous cost benefit analysis.

Finally, as unconventional gas makes an increasingly significant contribution to eastern market gas supply, strong leadership and community engagement is required. This will help to build confidence in the gas industry, which is becoming a leading national economic opportunity for Australia over the coming decades.

So what has Peter Keaston Reith arch-lobbyist been up to since then?

Well, he appears to no longer be a listed special counsel for First State Advisors and Consultants at federal or states level.

However, he remains a lobbyist for Bechtel Management Company Ltd, a company which has been on his client list at least since the time he headed the Victorian task force.

Bechtel Management Company Ltd is a civil engineering/construction subsidiary of the Bechtel Corporation which has coal, oil and gas projects around the world. Including in the Pilbara region of West Australia and the Gladstone region in Queensland. 

The parent company claims its Curtis Island LNG project off the Gladstone coast; represents the greatest concentration of Bechtel projects anywhere in the world.

In its 2012 annual report Bechtel explained that; On Curtis Island, in eastern Australia, we are building three world-scale plants to process the region’s vast coal seam gas reserves.

Bechtel Corporation though the Bechtel Power Corporation is also a member of the UK Nuclear Industry Association.

Reith continues to talk up ‘natural’ gas and remains misleading about his relationship with the industry, as his 25 February 2015 article in The Sydney Morning Herald reveals:

I became interested in natural gas at the request of the Victorian government, which was concerned at the impact of gas sales to China and its implications for the eastern Australia gas market. The massive developments in Queensland are already imposing transitional effects. There is a real prospect Sydney could suffer gas shortages causing major dislocation to business. Gas prices are already rising and it could take at least three years to supply additional gas to Sydney if everything goes well and if the government holds its nerve.

How hot will it get on the NSW North Coast between now and 2079?

The NSW Dept. of Environment and Heritage has posted Climate Projection for NSW on its website.

These projections include a; Change in number of days a year max temp > 35ºC Hots days are projected to increase across the state by an average of 9 days per year by 2030. There are significant spatial differences across the state. The greatest increases are seen in the west of the region during summer and spring with an additional 10-20 days by 2030. The Great Dividing Range is not projected to experience any significant increases.

A summary of climate change predictions for the NSW North Coast and maps of projected changes in the region's maximum & minimum temperature, rainfall, and future forest fire risk can be found here.

This map shows the change in mean number of days over 35ºC on the North Coast from 1990 up to 2020-2039:

By 2060-2079 the map will look like this:

Quote of the Week

Even if the Liberal Party do end up winning Fisher, there will be huge recriminations from this result. This is an 8% swing towards a 12 year-old state government in a seat Labor hasn't won since the 1985 state election. This is a result that can't be blamed in electoral boundaries. Someone is going to have to take responsibility for this result. Will it be the state Liberals? Will the finger be pointed at the federal Liberals? This is a very bad result for the Liberal Party in South Australia. [Antony Green, ABC News at 21:00 on Saturday 6 December 2014 during the Fisher SA by-election ballot count]