Another time bomb left behind by a politically & fiscally incompetent current member of the World Wide Speakers Group and sometime Liberal MP for Cook, Scott John Morrison

 

Then Prime Minster Scott Morrison & Treasurer Josh Frydenberg - political mates and housemates before the Liberal-Nationals Coalition sank the ship of state. IMAGE: The Australian, 26 August 2020

 

On 5 July 2018 then Australian Treasurer & Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison unveiled his plan to overhaul the Goods & Services Tax (GST) state distribution scheme.

This involved changes which ‘would protect all taxpayers, update the grants commission process and deliver certainty to States and Territories. “This problem has been kicked down the road for too long and it is time we now got on and fixed it,” he said. “A fair and sustainable transition to a new equalisation standard will be ensured, through an additional, direct, and permanent Commonwealth boost to the pool of funds to be distributed among the States."

By 12 November 2018 the Australian Coalition Government now lead by Prime Minister Morrison introduced Treasury Laws Amendment (Making Sure Every State and Territory Gets Their Fair Share of GST) Bill 2018 which was duly passed by Parliament and became law on 29 November 2018.

On 25 February 2019 Treasurer John Frydenberg put his signature to this contentious document.

Thus a political and fiscal time bomb with a relatively long fuse was activated…...

The Age, 14 November 2022, p.3:

A deal put in place to placate Western Australia when its share of GST revenue was tumbling is on track to cost the nation's taxpayers 10 times more than forecast, helping drive up federal government debt and interest payments to record levels.

Originally pulled together by then-treasurer Scott Morrison in 2018 before being put through parliament by his successor, Josh Frydenberg, the deal that expected to cost $2.3 billion is now on track to cost more than $24 billion. [my yellow highlighting]

WA, which delivered four seats to Labor at the May election on the back of a 10.6 per cent swing, is vowing to fight to keep the arrangement, due to expire in 2026-27.

Morrison struck the deal at a time when WA's share of the tax pool had fallen to an all-time low of 30 cents for every dollar of GST raised within the state. Its iron ore royalties were effectively being redistributed among the other states and territories based on a Commonwealth Grants Commission formula that takes into account each state's revenue sources and expenses.

Under Morrison's deal, from 2022-23 WA must receive a minimum of 70 cents in the dollar before increasing to 75 cents in 2024-25. When the policy was put in place, it was expected iron ore prices would fall and WA's share of the GST pool would therefore rise. Instead, prices have soared.

The Morrison government ensured other states and territories wouldn't be worse off, which requires the top-up funding for the deal to come from outside the $82.5 billion GST pool.

It was originally forecast to cost federal taxpayers $2.3 billion over three years, including just $293 million in 2021-22, but the surge in iron ore prices has meant more top-ups and for longer.

The October budget revealed that last year, the deal cost $2.1 billion and is forecast to jump to $4.2 billion this financial year. By 2025-26, the cost of the entire deal is on track to reach $22.5 billion, with another $2-3 billion likely the year after that.

Throughout the entire period, the budget is expected to be in deficit, forcing the extra cash to be borrowed. In percentage terms, the blowout in cost is larger than the NDIS, aged care, health or defence.

Independent economist Chris Richardson said the deal had been ill-conceived from the beginning with the cost to be borne by future taxpayers.

He said all significant spending programs needed to be properly assessed, including the GST deal.

"Yes, the politics of it are difficult. But we have a whole host of other issues, like the NDIS, and the economics of them have to be dealt with," he said…….

The extra borrowing for the GST deal has contributed to the lift in gross debt, which on Friday reached a record $909.4 billion.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the cost of servicing the debt was getting more expensive and was the budget's fastest-growing expense. [my yellow highlighting]

Commonwealth, Westpac, ANZ & NAB banks spending billions financing the fossil fuel industry

 

The Rainforest Action Network supported by a great many non-government agencies has created an interactive website packed with data and published a report titled BANKING ON CLIMATE CHAOS 2021.

Here are just four excerpts from this report:

• In the 5 years since the Paris Agreement, the world’s 60 biggest banks have financed fossil fuels to the tune of $3.8 trillion. Runaway funding for fossil fuel extraction and infrastructure fuels climate chaos and threatens the lives and livelihoods of millions.

• These banks poured a total of $3.8 trillion into fossil fuels from 2016–2020. Fossil fuel financing dropped 9% last year, parallel to the global drop in fossil fuel demand and production due to the COVID-19 pandemic. And yet 2020 levels remained higher than in 2016, the year immediately following the adoption of the Paris Agreement. The overall fossil fuel financing trend of the last five years is still heading definitively in the wrong direction, reinforcing the need for banks to establish policies that lock in the fossil fuel financing declines of 2020, lest they snap back to business-as-usual in 2021

• JPMorgan Chase remains the world’s worst banker of fossil fuels over this time period, though its funding did drop significantly last year. Citi follows as the second-worst fossil bank, followed by Wells Fargo, Bank of America, RBC, and MUFG. Barclays is the worst in Europe and Bank of China is the worst in China.

• ...the current wave of bank commitments to reduce their financed emissions to “net zero by 2050,” as well as related policies like measuring and disclosing financed emissions, and emphasizes that no bank making a climate commitment for 2050 should be taken seriously unless it also acts on fossil fuels in 2021. Moreover, until the banks prove otherwise, the “net” in “net zero” leaves room for emissions targets that fall short of what the science demands, based on copious offsetting or absurd assumptions about future carbon-capture schemes, as well as the rights violations and fraud that often come hand in hand with offsetting and carbon markets.

According to the report, between 2016 and 2020 the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the National Australia Bank (NAB) committed $6.24 billion and $4.43 billion respectively to the total global financing of the fossil fuel industry. While the ANZ Bank contributed a hefty total of $15.22 billion and Westpac $6.5 billion.

All four banks financed fossil fuel expansion by the top 100 fossil fuel companies, as well as financing fuel production based on tar sands and LNG.

The Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and Westpac financed ventures in the Arctic and offshore areas.

ANZ also financed production companies involved in fracking.

All four banks financed coal mining and coal power companies over the same five year period.

The four banks were given dismal  policy scores out of 200 points, ranging from 13.5 (Westpac), 14 (NAB), 18 (CBA) to 22.5 (ANZ).

Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison, along with 39 other heads of government, will be attending a U.S. Leaders Summit on Climate on April 22 and 23, which will be live streamed for public viewing.

Given his lack of enthusiasm for any “zero emissions” target and his government's paucity of effective climate change mitigation policies, it is highly likely that at this summit Morrison – rather than representing the nation – will be representing the commercial interests of these banks, along with those of the fossil fuel mining & production sectors .

State of the Australian economy as it enters 2020

On 16 December 2019 Australian Treasurer and Liberal MP for Kooyong, Josh Frydenberg, put out a glowing media release concerning the health of the national economy which bears little resemblance to data his own department released on that same day.

Treasury on behalf of the Morrison Coalition Government informed Australia that it now has less income than was anticipated just prior to the 2019 federal election and, that economic growth is now slower.

Total receipts have been revised down by about $3.0 billion in 2019-20 and $32.6 billion over the four years to 2022-23.

These falls are due to less money coming into Treasury from individuals taxes, company tax and superannuation tax, as well as less dollars being collected through the tax on goods & services (GST) and lower non-tax income.

Federal government net debt is expected to be $392.3 billion in 2019-20 (19.5 per cent of GDP). Gross debt now stands at over $560.8 billion.

Slower economic growth is explained as due in part to decreased production and lower export levels in the farming sector, a decline in iron ore prices, softer wages growth, diminished business confidence & investment uncertainty.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) nominal growth is 3.25 per cent but is expected to fall to 2.25 per cent in the coming financial year.

Wages growth is still under performing at 2.5 per cent and, there is no guarantee that the revised projection of 3 per cent wage growth by 2022-23 is achievable.

Unemployment is beginning to rise.

The number of people who had jobs fell by 19,700 individuals between the May federal election and October 2019. Employment numbers are projected to fall over the next 5 years in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Manufacturing and Information, Media & Technology.

Cost of living (CPI) is not coming down. CPI rose 1.7 per cent through the year to the September 2019 quarter. This followed a through the year rise of 1.6 per cent to the June 2019 quarter. Retail prices, particularly for clothing, footwear, meat, dairy, bread and cereal products, have risen.

As for the much lauded budget surplus for 2019-20, it has shrunk from $7.1 billion to $5 billion. While the rubbery figures in forward estimates see the expected surplus for 2020-2021 reduced from $11 billion to $6.1 billion, then from $17.8 billion down to $8.2 billion in 2021-22, with the fiscal year after that supposed to bring in a surplus of only $4 billion instead of the projected $9.2 billion.

One can almost hear Morrison ordering a funding red pen through even more health, disability and welfare services/programs in a vain attempt to avoid intensifying the economic squeeze his flawed political ideology is imposing on the nation.

Notes:

* Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg 16 December 2019 media release at 

http://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/media-releases/2019-20-mid-year-economic-and-fiscal-outlook

* Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) December 2019 at https://budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/myefo/download/MYEFO_2019-20.pdf

* Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) April 2019 at https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2019-pefo

* Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) federal government debt updates at https://www.aofm.gov.au/

* Cost of Living data at https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6401.0Media%20Release1Sep%202019?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6401.0&issue=Sep%202019&num=&view=

* Labour Market Information Portal, “Industry Projections – 5 years to 2024” (Excel) at http://lmip.gov.au/PortalFile.axd?FieldID=2787734&.xlsx

Where Australia's finances stand ahead of the convening of the 46th federal parliament

Given that Australian Prime Minister Scott ‘liar from the shire’ Morrison has already signalled that he does not intend to allow truth to interfere with his political rhetoric – describing truth telling as verballing that he “won’t be allowing to happen” – now is perhaps the time to remind ourselves of the truth about the nation’s finances under Morrison & Co ahead of the commencement of the 46th Parliament.

According to the Dept. of Finance the Morrison Government’s Assets and Liabilities as at 31 March 2019 (12 days out from the start of the 2019 federal election caretaker period) were:

• net worth minus $450.5 billion;

• net debt $376.7 billion; and

• net financial liabilities $656.4 billion.

In March 2019 the general government sector’s total revenue fell short of its total expenses by $1.5 billion.

The Australian Office of Financial Management reported on 17 May 2019 (the day before the federal election) that the face value of Australian Government borrowings (ie the national debt) stood at $538.2 billion.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 2019 Statement on Monetary Policy - Economic Outlook  has expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the year ending in June 2019 at 1¾%, revised down from 2½% due to a slower domestic economy.

Australian economy has grown weaker and workers paypackets leaner under the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government

ABC News, 11 May 2019:

Australia's "strong economy" has been the Coalition's mantra throughout the election campaign.

Earlier this month, the Liberal Party created a meme of a smiling Scott Morrison armed with a lightsaber and dressed as a Jedi alongside the slogan: "The economy is strong with this one."

In Treasurer Josh Frydenberg's Budget speech, the phrase "strong economy" featured 14 times.

And Labor, loathe to campaign on what it sees as the Coalition's territory, has barely challenged this proposition.

Yet the evidence suggests the claim is more rhetoric than reality.

On just about any measure, the economy is not strong — and any enduring pretensions that it is have been undermined by no less an authority than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Its latest monetary policy statement has revised down economic growth for this financial year to just 1.7 per cent — more than half a percentage point below its previous forecast.

That contradicts Treasury forecasts in the Budget, which are barely a month old and were reaffirmed by Treasury even more recently in the pre-election economic and fiscal outlook.

Wages growth, despite a recent small pick-up, has been weaker during the past six years than at any time since World War II.

Home values and household wealth have plummeted amid one of the biggest property slumps in Australia's history.

The inflation rate is at a historic low of just 1.3 per cent and has languished below the Reserve Bank's target range of 2 to 3 per cent for more than three years.

Although employment growth has been reasonably strong, driven by the public sector and community services, key sectors that drive the economy are shrinking.

Manufacturing, construction and retail trade have all shed tens of thousands of jobs over the past year — the building industry layoffs are a product of a massive slump in dwelling investment, which the RBA reckons will continue for years.

Some better headline data mask gloomier realities

Only high rates of immigration have stopped Australia lapsing into a formal recession.

The continued expansion — now in its 28th year, the longest period without a recession in recent world history — disguises a "per capita" recession that is driving down living standards.

Similarly, an unemployment rate mired at 5 per cent, which is not high by the standards of recent decades, disguises the true weakness of the labour market.

More than 13 per cent of the workforce is underutilised — either unable to secure work at all or the hours they need — and a disproportionate share of the jobs growth in recent times has been poor quality: casual and contract jobs in relatively low-wage, low-productivity sectors.

The Reserve Bank is betting on the unemployment rate staying where it is, but others are less optimistic.

Westpac's Bill Evans, one of the most long-standing and respected market economists, predicts that developments in the labour market over the next three months will disappoint the RBA with a "deterioration of the labour market" over the coming six months and "continued weak inflation".

This downturn in the economy is largely homegrown — the product of weak wages growth and the unwinding of an unsustainable property boom that left households saddled with enormous debts.

If there's also an external shock, perhaps from a trade war sparked by Donald Trump's tariffs on our largest trading partner China, it will open up the possibility of a double-whammy.

Yogi Berra, the legendary US baseball star and coach, famously observed that "it's tough making predictions, especially about the future", and it's a maxim that's often born[e] out in economic forecasting.

But you don't need a crystal ball to realise that whoever forms government after the federal election will inherit a sluggish economy, not a strong one.

ABC News, 12 May 2019:

The Reserve Bank's new line in the sand gets its first big test with the latest reading from the jobs market this week.

The new line, as set down in the RBA's latest Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP), can be roughly defined as the unemployment rate holding at 5 per cent through 2019 and 2020 before drifting lower.

The persistent head-winds of low inflation has seemingly blurred, if not blown away, the RBA's previous markers — parallel lines which were intended to corral inflation between 2 to 3 per cent for as far as the eye can see, or an economist can forecast.

Governor Philip Lowe made it clear a further improvement in the labour market was needed to get the economy out its rut and back in the groove, growing at its full potential.

No back-tracking on this one for the RBA. Lower unemployment and underemployment — where workers are searching for more hours to make ends meet — will soak up the spare capacity sloshing around the economy, inflation gets back to where the RBA wants it and GDP grows at its long term trend, or better.

That's still a long way off, even using the RBA's recently updated and far from pessimistic forecasts......

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, over the twelve months to the March quarter 2019 the living costs for self–funded retiree households fell by -0.2%, while the living costs for age pensioner households and other government transfer recipient households rose by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Employed households living costs remained unchanged over the same time period at 0.1% above CPI.

It should be noted that penalty rates for retail workers will be further reduced by 15% of the base wage rate on 1 July 2019 and 1 July 2020 as per Fair Work Commission 2017 decision.

A federal budget for hopeless optimists was delivered by the Morrison Government on 2 April 2019

https://youtu.be/C64ZC-0Oju4

This was Australian treasurer and Liberal MP for Kooyong Josh Frydenberg delivering his first budget speech on 2 April 2019:

Tonight, I announce that the budget is back in the black and Australia is back on track.

For the first time in 12 years, our nation is again paying its own way….

John Howard and Peter Costello paid off Labor’s debt. And tonight the Morrison government sets a path to do it again, without increasing taxes.

This matters because over the last year the interest bill on the national debt was $18bn.

And this was in a low interest rate environment.

This is money that could have built 500 schools or a world-class hospital in each state and territory.

We are reducing the debt and this interest bill.

Not through higher taxes, but by responsible budget management and by growing the economy.

In the actual budget papers he asserts that:

Net debt in 2019-20 is expected to be $361 billion, representing 18 per cent of GDP. By 2022-23, net debt is expected to decline to $326.1 billion (14.4 per cent of GDP). Net debt is then projected to be eliminated over the medium term (2029-30)

So whose debt is Frydenberg complaing about and why is the economic furture so suddenly rosy?

At the end of the month in 2013 in which Tony Abbott became Prime Minister of Australia the gross national debt stood at est. $220.67 billion and net national debt was $174.55 billion. At the time net national debt was in the vicinity of 13% of GDP.

By 2 April 2019 the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government had raised the gross national debt to $534.42 billion. 

That's more than double the national debt left by the previous Labor federal government.

Frydenberg is predicting that gross national will rise to $627.26 billion by end of June 2019 with net national debt coming in at $373.47 billion and net debt predicted to come in at 19.2% of GDP by end of June. 

By 30 June the federal government will have paid $18.15 billion in interest on this debt in the 2018-19 financial year.

I don't know about anyone else but to me it definitely looks as though the Liberal-Nationals Coalition governments have well and truly contribted to the national debt in the last five and a haf years.

According to the 2019-20 Budget that Frydenberg just delivered gross national debt is expected to rise for the next three financial years while at the same time it is hoped that net national debt will decrease.

When it comes to national debt a net decrease in the debt does not always mean the actual government debt is falling - it simply means that the government of the day expects to have enough assets and income to honour the total debt if the entire amount was theoretically called in by the debtors.

However, Frydenberg predicts that both net national debt and interest that the gross debt attracts will fall over the next four financial years, despite federal government expenses increasing and expected tax receipts (including GST receipts) being revised down by $26 billion over those same four years.

Frydenberg also says the Morrison Government will deliver an underlying cash balance of $7.1 billion by 30 June next year even though that underlying cash balance is $4.1 billion in deficit this year. To do that the Treasurer has to pull $11.2 billion out of his back pocket in the next fourteen months.

Months in which it is committed to delivering the cash splash it has included in this pre-election budget.

An ordinary voter like myself has to ask: Where's the money coming from to supposedly get the government books back into the black?

The Morrison Government must be privately asking itself the same question as Budget Statement 7 only gives that government a 70 per cent chance of being able to bring in a $7.1 billion suplus this coming financial year

Budget 2019-20 papers can be found here.

NOTE:

Only one item in the Morrison Government 2019-20 budget is likely to be passed on 3 April 2019 before the Australian Parliament is dissolved to meet the required timeline to issue  writs for the federal election. This means that all the budget promises made by Frydenberg are on the never never and if the Coalition Government wins that election it may change some budget details come 30 June.

None of the financial institutions are coming away from this Royal Commission covered in glory

The Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry was established on 14 December 2017, is due to hand down an interim report no later than 30 September 2018 followed by a final report by 1 February 2019.

As of 13 April 2018 the royal commission has received 3,433 public submissions - 69% of these were Banking, 8% Superannuation 8% and 7% Financial Advice.

Round 2 public hearings finish on 27 April 2018.

View the live webcast or previous hearings.

Yesterday was the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's turn to reluctantly admit systemic fraud ....

The Guardian, 18 April 2018:

Counsel assisting the royal commission, Mark Costello, asked Linda Elkins, from CBA’s wealth management arm Colonial First State, to confirm CBA’s poor record of charging fees for no service.

“It would be the gold medallist if [the corporate regulator] was handing out medals for fees for no service, wouldn’t it?” Costello asked.

Elkins replied: “Yes.”

The commission was told that from July 2007 to June 2015 clients of CBA’s Commonwealth Financial Planning, BW Financial Planning and Count Financial businesses were routinely charged ongoing fees for financial advice where no advice services were provided.

CBA has had to refund $118.5m to customers – more than half the $219m in compensation paid by the big four banks and AMP over the past decade – to more than 310,000 financial advice customers.

ABC News, 18 April 2018:

Michael Hodge QC observes that Commonwealth Financial Planning has had a 100 per cent increase in clients over the past decade but a 25 per cent drop in the number of advisers.

He asks CBA's Marianne Perkovic whether the bank had any concerns that clients were not receiving adequate attention because of the decline in advisers, while client numbers doubled.

This is in the context of ASIC's concern that some firms were taking on too many clients for the number of planners. 

Ms Perkovic struggles to provide a clear answer.......

After disputing the meaning to be attributed to internal memos between the bank's senior managers in early 2012, Ms Perkovic eventually had to admit that a Deloitte report handed to CBA in July 2012 revealed systemic problems in ensuring that customers weren't being charged for financial advice they did not receive.

Deloitte had found that at least $700,000 in ongoing service fees were being charged to more than 1,050 clients that were allocated to more than 50 inactive financial planners who had left the business before 2012.

It appears that Ms Perkovic was finally ground down by relentless questioning from Michael Hodge QC, warnings from Commissioner Kenneth Hayne and the irrefutable evidence of the Deloitte report.

Shock, Horror! A Liberal minister finally makes a stab at lessening gouging by payday lending and rent-as-you-buy companies and Liberal MPs have a conniption

According to the Australian Treasury: “On 28 November 2016 the Government released its response to the Review of the Small Amount Credit Contract laws.The Draft Bill implements the Government’s response to the Review.”

According to the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) this bill has merit.

 ASIC submission to government, November 2017:

2. We support the financial inclusion objectives of the Exposure Draft of the National Consumer Credit Protection Amendment (Small Amount Credit Contract and Consumer Lease Reforms) Bill 2017 (the Bill). The consumer harms that can be associated with payday loans and consumer leases are a longstanding and systemic feature of these sectors and often fall on financially vulnerable and disadvantaged consumers. We consider that the Bill will provide an effective suite of protections commensurable to the risk of harm to consumers from these products, balanced against the need to ensure that the industry can remain viable.

3 In particular, we support the level of the cap on costs for consumer leases proposed in the Bill. We expect a cap set at this level will address the excessive costs some lessors charge consumers, while still allowing a viable and sustainable consumer lease sector.

4 We also support the introduction of the Bill’s comprehensive anti-avoidance regime, which will benefit both consumers and compliant businesses. These measures will be essential to address the increased risk of avoidance activity following the introduction of the reforms.

Yet this is the response from Liberal Party backbenchers.........

The Courier Mail, 12 February 2018:

IRATE backbenchers have revolted over Financial Services Minister Kelly O’Dwyer’s tough payday lending draft laws and have successfully enlisted Treasurer Scott Morrison to reverse Cabinet’s support of the Bill.

As the Turnbull Government desperately searches for a circuit breaker from Barnaby Joyce’s sex scandal, frustrations have spilt over against Ms O’Dwyer’s original handling of new laws targeting payday lenders and rent-to-buy businesses, with backbenchers complaining to the Prime Minister.

A bloc of about 20 backbenchers, including several in Queensland, are warning Ms O’Dwyer’s reforms will send some businesses broke and are an affront to Liberal values.

In a move that will be pilloried by consumer groups angry over rent-to-buy lenders charging up to 800 per cent interest, a group of MPs, labelled by some in the Government as the “Parliamentary Friends of Payday Lenders” – a title that is angering the bloc – has convinced Mr Morrison to retreat on parts of the draft laws.

It would be an embarrassing move for Cabinet, which ticked off on the reforms last year.

Company tax rate cuts in Australia and the banks that benefit

There has been some finger pointing in mainstream and social media of late over Labor’s use of $7.4 million as the amount banks would be able to retain under the Turnbull Government’s progressive cuts to the company tax rate included in the 2016-17 Budget.

According to the Australian Tax Office on 3 January 2016:

The government announced a reduction in the small business tax rate from 28.5 per cent to 27.5 per cent for the 2016–17 income year. The turnover threshold to qualify for the lower rate will start at $10 million and progressively rise until the 27.5 per cent rate applies to all corporate tax entities subject to the general company tax rate in the 2023–24 income year.

The corporate tax rate will then be cut to 27 per cent for the 2024–25 income year and by one percentage point in each subsequent year until it reaches 25 per cent for the 2026–27 income year.

Full report: Company tax cuts What the evidence shows

ABC News reported in May 2016 that Treasury Secretary John Fraser told Senate Estimates: The cost of these measures to 2026-27 is $48.2 billion in cash terms.

In the first four years it is estimated that these tax cuts will cost the Treasury bottom line an est. $5.3 billion.

So where did the $7.4 billion for banks come from?

Australia is thought to have four big banks – the National Australia Bank (NAB), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and Westpac (WBA) and it appears that this amount is based on projections done with regards to these banks by think tank, The Australia Institute.

The Australia Institute, media release 2016:

Big 4 banks $7.4 billion budget gift

The Coalition Government’s business tax plan would deliver $7.4B to the big 4 banks.

“Cutting company tax rates delivers a massive windfall to an already highly profitable banking sector,” Executive Director Australia Institute, Ben Oquist said.

“It makes no economic or budget sense to deliver the big 4 banks a multi-billion dollar tax break when Australia already has a revenue problem.

“If your agenda is jobs and growth, targeted industry assistance would deliver a much greater return on investment,” Oquist said.

The value of company tax provisions was derived from 2015 full year annual reports for the big four banks. That figure summed to $11,123 million. That figure was projected forward to 2026-27 to give the no change scenario.

The projection assumed bank profit and hence tax payable would increase in line with nominal GDP. The nominal GDP projections used the figures in the 2016-17 budget papers which give nominal increases of:

2.5 per cent in 2015-16,

4.25 per cent in 2016-17, and

5 per cent in 2017-18 and subsequent years.

Company tax cuts do not affect the big banks until 2024-25 when the current 30 per cent rate will fall to 27 per cent for all companies with further reductions of one per cent per annum until they reach 25 per cent in 2026-27.

The results of this are presented in the following table:

Table 1. Benefit of company tax cuts for big four banks, $million

	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27	Total
Savings on company tax	1,756	2,458	3,227	7,441

KPMG stated in Major Banks: Full Year Results 2015 that the Australian major banks reported another record earnings result in 2015 - a combined cash profit after tax of $30 billion.

By year’s end 2016 the major banks were reporting a combined cash profit after tax of $29.6 billion.

The Federal Government’s underlying cash balance for the 2016-17 financial year to 31 December 2016 was a deficit of $33,025 million and the fiscal balance was a deficit of $31,143 million. While net government debt for 2016-17 stood at an est. $326 billion.

In Major Banks: Full Year Results 2016 KPMG observed:

There is an increasing global perception that banks put shareholders’ and executives’ interests ahead of their customers and the community. This perception is more real for banks than for other corporates as they are seen to rely not only on compliance with strict regulation, but increasingly on the goodwill of the community and government to continue to operate in their current form.

We are seeing heightened scrutiny of Australian banks, including through the recent Standing Committee on Economics (the Committee) inquiry, becoming a regular feature of media and political commentary, notwithstanding eight separate inquiries since 2009. There are many reasons for this increased level of oversight, with terms such as “trust deficit” and “trust gap” often cited as the root cause.

It has been argued that the financial services industry has lost touch with the core proposition customers are seeking by forgetting its real purpose in society and becoming too inwardly focussed. These themes were repeated in testimony to the Committee.

Readers can make their own minds up as to whether banks have lived up to the historic social licence granted them by community (see bank scandals since 2009 and alleged superannuation owing in 2017) and, if they actually need any further tax relief or if that $7.4 billion would be much better in the hands of the Commonwealth Treasury.