Climate change impacts even affect official labour force statistics in 2022

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 19 May 2021:

Impacts from floods in New South Wales and Queensland 

Flooding in New South Wales and Queensland in late February 2022 resulted in a major disruption to the operation of the Labour Force Survey. As a result, there was lower than usual numbers of responding households in some of the affected regions in March 2022. 

Given the severity of these disruptions and to ensure this loss of sample did not affect data for Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the ABS imputed some sample within 15 statistical area level 4 (SA4s) regions for March 2022. This imputation approach drew upon previous information that had recently been collected from people in the affected areas, following the approach used for February 2019 for the Townsville Flood. 

The ABS has re-assessed this imputation, with reference to April 2022 data for the affected areas, and has not revised the imputed data for March. The ABS will continue to monitor the data over coming months and undertake additional analysis of the imputed data as further data becomes available. Data for all SA4s will be published in Labour Force, Australia, Detailed on 26 May 2022. 

[my yellow highlighting]

What the Australian Bureau of Statistics is politely saying is that Labour Force, Australia for April 2022, released on 19 May 2022 – containing headline estimates of employment, unemployment, underemployment, participation and hours worked from the monthly Labour Force Survey – is educated guesswork and voters won’t know if the figures and percentage changes hold until 5 days after the federal general election at the earliest.

Australian federal election campaign 2022: employment promises

The 2022 federal election campaign has begun in earnest. Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison promises "to create1.3 million jobs over the next five years" [Sydney Morning Herald, 11 April 2022] and Opposition Leader & Liberal MP for Grayndler Anthony Albanese pledges "to support a road map released by Tech Council Australia (TCA) to reach 1.2 million jobs in the industry within eight years" [NEWS.com.au, 24 March 2022].

Perhaps before considering competing promises and any future claims one should look back on employment and jobs growth year-to-year for the four years since that regime change occurred.

Australian Bureau of Statistics- ANZ Research: National Job Vacancies(work available), Unemployment, Underemployment & All Hours Worked

6 September 2018: 178,322 advertised jobs available in August prior to Morrison becomes prime minister 24 August 2018

Seasonally adjusted in August there were: 

est.12,631,300 people listed as employed; 

est. 708,800 listed as unemployed; 

the unemployment rate was 5.3% and underemployment rate was 8.1%.

Total hours worked all jobs that month - 1,750.9 million.

6 September 2019: 156,978 advertised jobs available in August

Seasonally adjusted in August there were:

est. 12,926,900 people listed as employed; 

est. 716,800 people listed as unemployed; 

the unemployment rate was 5.3% and underemployment rate was 8.6%;

Total hours worked that month - 1,782.6 million.

Compared to August 2018 there were fewer available jobs, more people listed as unemployed and the underemployment rate was higher. More people were recorded as being in employment and national hours worked had risen.

7 February 2020: 149,544 advertised jobs available for January pre-COVID

Seasonally adjusted in January there were:

12,988,400 people listed as employed; 

725,500 people registered as unemployed; 

the unemployment rate was 5.3% and underemployment rate was 8.6%.

Total all hours worked that month - 1,778 million.

6 September 2020: 109,103 advertised jobs available in August

Seasonally adjusted in August there were: 

12,583,400 people listed as employed; 

921,800 people registered as unemployed; 

the unemployment rate was 6.8% and underemployment rate was 11.2%.

Total all hours worked that month - 1,683 million.

Compared to August 2019 there were fewer jobs available, less people were in employment, more people unemployed, the underemployment rate was higher and national hours worked had  fallen.

6 September 2021: 195,995 advertised jobs available in August

Seasonally adjusted in August there were:

13,022,600 people listed as employed; 

617,100 people listed as unemployed; 

the unemployment rate was 4.5% and underemployment rate was 9.3%;

Total all hours worked all jobs that month - 1,714 million.

Compared to August 2020 there were more jobs available, more people in employment, less people unemployed, the underemployment rate was lower and national hours worked had risen.

Between August 2018 and August 2021 all cited indicators fluctuated. However, by the end of that four year month-to-month comparison: the number of available jobs had risen by 17,673 in a resident population which had grown by est. 570,000 persons; people in employment had increased by 391,300; the unemployment rate was 0.8% lower; the underemployment rate1.2% higher; and national hours worked had fallen by 36.9 million.

4 March 2022: 228,170 advertised jobs available in February 

In February there were: 

13,372,000 people listed as employed; 

563,300 people registered as unemployed; 

seasonally adjusted the unemployment rate was 4.0% and underemployment rate 6.6%. 

Total all hours worked that month - 1,183 million. Most recent ABS data for 2022

Definitions

• Any person in the labour force who did paid work or who was only temporarily absent from paid work is considered employed. 
• Any person in the labour force who didn't do paid work and wasn't temporarily absent from paid work is considered unemployed.
• Any unemployed person who is no longer looking for work is considered not participating in the national labour force.
• Any person in paid employment who is not fully employed and is looking for and/or available to start work with more hours is considered to be underemployed.

SOURCES

https://media.anz.com/search-results?key=job+ad

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour

In an election year all incumbent governments tend to casually toss around figures which paint rosy pictures. Given the growing reputation of the Morrison Government, perhaps it is wise to at least start off with reliable labor force, cost of living, consumer confidence & job numbers for the first month of 2022 in Australia & New South Wales

 

The first labor force and household economy breakdowns of 2022.

Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), LABOR FORCE: Headline estimates of employment, unemployment, underemployment, participation and hours worked from the monthly Labour Force Survey, January 2022 – released 17 February 2022:

Key statistics

Seasonally adjusted estimates for January 2022:

• Unemployment rate stood at 4.2%

580,000 unemployed - up from 574,400 in December 2021.

• Participation rate increased to 66.2%

Up from 66.1% in December 2021. However, participation decreased by 0.4 pts for men to 70.4% and increased by 0.6 pts to 62.1% for women

• Employment increased to 13,255,000

An increase of 12,900 people or 0.1% since December 2021.

Full-time employment decreased by 17,000 to 9,077,300 people, and part-time employment increased by 30,000 to 4,177,600 people. Part time employed made up 31.5% of all employment.

• Employment to population ratio increased to 63.4%

Up 0.3% since December 2021.

• Underemployment rate increased to 6.7%

Up from 6.6% in December 2021.

• Monthly hours worked decreased by 159 million hours

A decrease of 8.8% (in seasonally adjusted terms) between December 2021 and January 2022.

In New South Wales in January 2022

• Unemployment rate stood at 4.2%

Up 0.2% from December 2021

• Participation rate stood at 64.8%

A 0.2% fall since December 2021.

• Employment stood at 4,137,200

A 0.2% fall since December 2021.

Full time employment fell by 27,100 people and part time employment fell by 42,100 people. Part time employment made up est. 29% of all employment.

• Employment to population ratio fell to 58.2%

Down from 58.4% since December 2021.

• Underemployment rate increased to 6.4%

Up from 6.2% in December 2021.

• Monthly hours worked deceased by est. 78.18 million hours.

Going from 578,333.6 hours in December 2021 to 500,148.7 hours in January 2022.

ANZ Job Ads report, 7 February 2022:

ANZ Australian Job Ads fell 0.3 per cent in January following a downwardly revised 5.8 per cent drop in December. Despite the surge in Omicron cases, Job Ads remained 9.6 per cent above the Delta-lockdown lows. 

Based on ABS, Cost Price Index - Weighted average of eight capital cities, All groups - going into January 2022:

In December Quarter 2021 the Cost Price Index totalled 121.3 - a rise of 1.3% on the September Quarter. The 5 Selected Living Cost Indexes (LCIs) having risen for all 5 household types. 

In the period 1 January to 31 December 2022 the LCI rise across all categories was between 2.6% and 3.4%:

• Transport was the main contributor for all five population sub-groups, with the price of Automotive fuel rising 32%.

• The Age pensioner household sub-group had the highest annual increase (+3.4%). Food makes up a higher proportion of this sub-group compared to the others. This household group also had the highest annual increase in housing costs.

• The Employee household sub-group had the lowest annual increase (+2.6%) due to Mortgage interest charges falling over the year. Excluding Mortgage interest charges, this household group would have risen 3.1%.

Based on ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: 

17-23 January 2022

 Australia - 101.1 up 2.2%, rising above the neutral level of 100 but dropping in NSW by -2.4%.

14-30 January 2022

Australia - 101.8 up 1.7% and, after three weeks of decline in NSW state consumer confidence rose to 6.2%.

Unemployment in Australia is at a 22 year high, however NSW is faring a little better

Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force June 2020, 16 July 2020:

NATIONAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES 

• Employment increased 210,800 to 12,328,500 people. 
• Full-time employment decreased 38,100 to 8,489,100 people and part-time employment increased 249,000 to 3,839,400 people. 
• Unemployment increased 69,300 to 992,300 people. 
• Unemployment rate increased 0.4 pts to 7.4%. 
• Underemployment rate decreased 1.4 pts to 11.7%. 
• Underutilisation rate decreased 1.0 pts to 19.1%. 
• Participation rate increased by 1.3 pts to 64.0%. 
• Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 64.3 million hours to 1,664.7 million hours.

NATIONAL YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT

• Employment for 15-24 year olds increased by 101,500 people (6.3%). 
• Unemployment rate for this group increased 0.4 pts to 16.4%.
• Participation Rate for 15-24 year olds increased 3.9 pts to 63.5%. 
• Around 30% of the people moving into employment in June were aged 15 to 24 years.

New South Wales in June 2020 :

• Number of Employed Persons rose by est. 81,000 to total 3,949,500 individuals. This still leaves a gap of est.124,200 persons who lost the job they held in January 2020 and have not yet found other employment (original data);
• Full-time Employment rose by est. 8,200 positions (original data);
• Part-time Employment rose by est. 72,800 positions (original data);
• the Employment to Population Ratio was Persons 59.5, Males 64.4, Females 54.8 (original data);
• the Unemployment Rate was Persons 6.7%, Males 6.7%, Females 6.8% (original data);
• Underemployed Persons totalled est. 473,900 individuals (original data); and
• the Workforce Participation Rate was Persons 63.8% - up 1.6 percentage points, Males 69.0% - up 2 percentage points, Females 58.7% - up 1.6 percentage points (original data).

The Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government preparing another assault on workers' rights and conditions - this time using the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse

Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison is considering dumping the BOOT test - the better off overall test - that governs the nation's enterprise bargaining system for establishing wages and conditions.

It is clear that he is laying the groundwork for this in the wording used in a press conference on 29 May 2020 when speaking of jobs and industrial relations reform.

Introduced in the 1994 enterprise bargaining is the process of negotiation generally between the employer, employees and their bargaining representatives with the goal of making an enterprise agreement. 

The Fair Work Act 2009 established clear rules and obligations about how this process is to occur, including rules about bargaining, the content of enterprise agreements, and how an agreement is made and approved.

Since the inception of enterprising bargaining est.161,728 enterprise agreements were created. However, only est. 10,877 remained by September 2019, as agreement numbers fell off markedly after a Fair Work Commission decision that every individual worker had to be better off in an enterprise bargaining agreement than under the relevant industry award.

Employers found it harder to reduce wages and conditions after that ruling and lost some of their enthusiasm - preferring instead to increasingly casualise their staff and/or transform them into rolling fixed contract workers.

Now in the middle of a global pandemic business groups are reportedly calling for removal of more conditions from awards and workplace pay deals as key priorities.

With the Australian Industry Group calling for reform in three key industrial relations areas by: 

• changing enterprise bargaining laws in the current Fair Work Act; 
• simplifying awards by removing conditions dealt with in legislation such as annual leave, personal/carer’s leave, redundancy pay, notice of termination, consultation, dispute resolution, flexibility agreements and requests for flexible work arrangements; 
• removing barriers to "flexibility" in awards which would potentially allow lowering of labour costs;
• retaining current civil penalties for underpayment of a worker's wage rather than creating a criminal offence for serious underpayments/deliberate theft;
• abandoning the better off overall test for enterprise agreements;
• further restriction potential union intervention in the enterprise bargaining process;
• further restricting protected industrial action by workers; and 
• extinguishing the new right of casuals working full-time hours to paid annual leave and public holiday entitlements (See Workpac v Rossato & Workpac v Skene).

Using job losses due to COVID-19 pandemic public health orders as an excuse, it is apparent that Morrison intends yet another sustained assault on penalty rates, wages and conditions.

Morrison is willing to progress this assault as far as introducing a bill or bills in the Australian Parliament drafted without the co-operation of unions or even some industry sectors if necessary.

Despite protestations otherwise, it is clear that the Liberal and National political parties are opening up another front in their seemingly endless, ideologically-driven, class war.

SNAPSHOT: Employment, underemployment & unemployment in NSW & Northern Rivers Region - April & May 2019

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Labour Force, Australia, May 2019:

·         Australia's trend estimate of employment increased by 28,400 persons in May 2019, with:

·         the number of unemployed persons increasing by 5,800 persons;

·         the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5.1%;

·         the underemployment rate increasing to 8.5%;

·         the underutilisation rate increasing to 13.6%;

·         the participation rate increasing to 65.9%; and

·         the employment to population ratio remaining steady at 62.5%. 

In New South Wales, May 2019

Total employed person – 4,167,000 persons of which est. 31% are employed part-time

Total underemployment rate – 12.2%

Total unemployed person – 197,500 persons of which est. 68% were looking for full-time work

Total unemployment rate – 4.5%.

State Electorates in Northern Rivers, April 2019

Clarence Electorate – 58,169 employed persons, unemployment rate 8.2% and youth unemployment rate 20.5%, with negative annual employment growth of -2.7%

Lismore Electorate – 83,833 employed persons, unemployment rate 6.1% and youth unemployment rate 10.2%

Richmond-Tweed Electorate – 115,668 employed persons, unemployment rate 4.5% and youth unemployment rate 8.9%.

Australian economy has grown weaker and workers paypackets leaner under the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government

ABC News, 11 May 2019:

Australia's "strong economy" has been the Coalition's mantra throughout the election campaign.

Earlier this month, the Liberal Party created a meme of a smiling Scott Morrison armed with a lightsaber and dressed as a Jedi alongside the slogan: "The economy is strong with this one."

In Treasurer Josh Frydenberg's Budget speech, the phrase "strong economy" featured 14 times.

And Labor, loathe to campaign on what it sees as the Coalition's territory, has barely challenged this proposition.

Yet the evidence suggests the claim is more rhetoric than reality.

On just about any measure, the economy is not strong — and any enduring pretensions that it is have been undermined by no less an authority than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Its latest monetary policy statement has revised down economic growth for this financial year to just 1.7 per cent — more than half a percentage point below its previous forecast.

That contradicts Treasury forecasts in the Budget, which are barely a month old and were reaffirmed by Treasury even more recently in the pre-election economic and fiscal outlook.

Wages growth, despite a recent small pick-up, has been weaker during the past six years than at any time since World War II.

Home values and household wealth have plummeted amid one of the biggest property slumps in Australia's history.

The inflation rate is at a historic low of just 1.3 per cent and has languished below the Reserve Bank's target range of 2 to 3 per cent for more than three years.

Although employment growth has been reasonably strong, driven by the public sector and community services, key sectors that drive the economy are shrinking.

Manufacturing, construction and retail trade have all shed tens of thousands of jobs over the past year — the building industry layoffs are a product of a massive slump in dwelling investment, which the RBA reckons will continue for years.

Some better headline data mask gloomier realities

Only high rates of immigration have stopped Australia lapsing into a formal recession.

The continued expansion — now in its 28th year, the longest period without a recession in recent world history — disguises a "per capita" recession that is driving down living standards.

Similarly, an unemployment rate mired at 5 per cent, which is not high by the standards of recent decades, disguises the true weakness of the labour market.

More than 13 per cent of the workforce is underutilised — either unable to secure work at all or the hours they need — and a disproportionate share of the jobs growth in recent times has been poor quality: casual and contract jobs in relatively low-wage, low-productivity sectors.

The Reserve Bank is betting on the unemployment rate staying where it is, but others are less optimistic.

Westpac's Bill Evans, one of the most long-standing and respected market economists, predicts that developments in the labour market over the next three months will disappoint the RBA with a "deterioration of the labour market" over the coming six months and "continued weak inflation".

This downturn in the economy is largely homegrown — the product of weak wages growth and the unwinding of an unsustainable property boom that left households saddled with enormous debts.

If there's also an external shock, perhaps from a trade war sparked by Donald Trump's tariffs on our largest trading partner China, it will open up the possibility of a double-whammy.

Yogi Berra, the legendary US baseball star and coach, famously observed that "it's tough making predictions, especially about the future", and it's a maxim that's often born[e] out in economic forecasting.

But you don't need a crystal ball to realise that whoever forms government after the federal election will inherit a sluggish economy, not a strong one.

ABC News, 12 May 2019:

The Reserve Bank's new line in the sand gets its first big test with the latest reading from the jobs market this week.

The new line, as set down in the RBA's latest Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP), can be roughly defined as the unemployment rate holding at 5 per cent through 2019 and 2020 before drifting lower.

The persistent head-winds of low inflation has seemingly blurred, if not blown away, the RBA's previous markers — parallel lines which were intended to corral inflation between 2 to 3 per cent for as far as the eye can see, or an economist can forecast.

Governor Philip Lowe made it clear a further improvement in the labour market was needed to get the economy out its rut and back in the groove, growing at its full potential.

No back-tracking on this one for the RBA. Lower unemployment and underemployment — where workers are searching for more hours to make ends meet — will soak up the spare capacity sloshing around the economy, inflation gets back to where the RBA wants it and GDP grows at its long term trend, or better.

That's still a long way off, even using the RBA's recently updated and far from pessimistic forecasts......

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, over the twelve months to the March quarter 2019 the living costs for self–funded retiree households fell by -0.2%, while the living costs for age pensioner households and other government transfer recipient households rose by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Employed households living costs remained unchanged over the same time period at 0.1% above CPI.

It should be noted that penalty rates for retail workers will be further reduced by 15% of the base wage rate on 1 July 2019 and 1 July 2020 as per Fair Work Commission 2017 decision.

“Welfare-to-work” is now a billion-dollar industry which consistently fails vulnerable jobseekers

The Guardian, 4 May 2019:

“Welfare-to-work” is now a billion-dollar industry. Providers compete for the lucrative contracts, worth $7.6bn to the taxpayer over five years when the last round was signed in 2015.

Proponents for the privatised system argue the model is much cheaper and boasts a better cost-to-outcome ratio.

But myriad reports – including recent findings from a Senate committee and a government-appointed panel – have found the most disadvantaged jobseekers are being left behind.

In 2002, a Productivity Commission report that was largely supportive of the then-new privatised model still warned “many disadvantaged job seekers receive little assistance … so-called ‘parking’”. That practice still occurs under this name today, according to employment consultants who spoke to Guardian Australia for this story.

When a person applies for Newstart, they are assigned a Jobactive provider and placed into one of three categories ordered by the level of assistance they might need: streams A, B and C.

The outlook for the most-disadvantaged jobseekers is bleak: only a quarter will find work each year. Overall, 40% of those receiving payments will still be on welfare in two years. While Jobactive has recorded 1.1 million “placements” since 2015, one in five people have been in the system for more than five years.

New data provided to Guardian Australia by the Department of Jobs and Small Business shows about 1.9 million people have participated in Jobactive between July 2015 and 31 January 2019. In that time, 350,000 – or 18% – have been recorded gaining employment and getting off income support for longer than 26 weeks.

And of those 350,000, only 35,852 – or 10% – had been classified as disadvantaged in Stream C.

Since Lanyon was placed on Jobactive, he’s had eight job interviews and sent in about 150 applications. Eighteen months ago he says he slept in his car and showered at a homeless shelter after finding work close enough to take but too far away for a daily commute.

He knows his chances of getting back into work diminish each day he’s out of the workforce.

State of Play Australia 2018: 11 per cent of the workforce is unemployed and 8 per cent underemployed

Roy Morgan, media release excerpt, 13  September 2018:

Australian employment has grown solidly over the past year however the faster rate of overall growth in the Australian workforce due to more Australians looking for work means unemployment has increased to a two-year high of 11% in August.

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for August shows:

* 11,940,000 Australians were employed in August, up 255,000 over the past year;

* The workforce which comprises employed and unemployed Australians is now 13,416,000, up 407,000 on a year ago;

* 1,476,000 Australians were unemployed (11% of the workforce); an increase of 152,000 (up 0.8%) on a year ago and the highest level of unemployment for over two years since March 2016;

* In addition 1,071,000 Australians (8.0% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 170,000 in a year (down 1.5%);

* The increase in employment was driven by an increase in full-time employment which was up 323,000 to 7,761,000, while part-time employment fell 68,000 to 4,179,000;

* Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 11% for August is more than twice as high as the current ABS estimate for July 2018 of 5.3%.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – August 2018. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Full media release can be found here.

Micaelia Cash's bragging doesn't change the Abbott-Turnbull 'jobs and growth' numbers

On Thursday 19 April 2018 the Australian Minister for Jobs and Innovation and Liberal Senator for Western Australia Micaelia Cash stated: Since the Government came to office in September 2013, we have created a total of 996,800 jobs — an increase of 8.7 per cent.

What stands out for this voter is the small degree of change that has actually occurred when it come to those much vaunted 'jobs and growth' policies.

Bottom line is that in the years between the 2013 federal election when the Coalition Government came to power and the present day, the national unemployment rate has only fallen by half a percentage point and there are only four less job seekers competing for each job that becomes available.

In January 2014 the Australian population totalled est. 22.63 million, Tony Abbott had been prime minister for less than four months and seasonally adjusted there were an est.11,459,500 employed people across the country. This figure included wage employees, private contractors and business operators.

Up to an est. 1.5 million workers were being paid the National Minimum Wage.

Only 69 per cent of the 11.54 million had full-time jobs. Full-time employment decreased 7,100 to 7,953,000 and part-time employment increased 3,400 to 3,506,500.

Around 951,000 of these 11.45 million people in employment would be classified as underemployed, ie. they were employed in less than full-time or regular jobs or in jobs inadequate with respect to their training or economic needs. 

The workforce participation rate stood at 64.5% and the unemployment rate was 6.0%.

There were est. 728,600 people between 15 and 65 years of age who were unemployed and looking for work.

A total of 139,100 and 142,700 job vacancies were recorded for the months November 2013 and February 2014 respectively.

In January-February 2014 it was reported that there were 20 job seekers for every position currently available.

In March 2018 the Australian population totalled est. 24.90 million, Malcolm Turnbull had been prime minister for more than two years and there were seasonally adjusted an est.12,484,100 employed people across the country. This figure includes wage employees, private contractors and business operators.

Up to est. 1.8 million of these workers were being paid the National Minimum Wage.

Only 68 per cent of the 12.48 million had full-time jobs. Full-time employment decreased 19,900 to 8,514,100 and part-time employment increased 24,800 to 3,970,000.

Around 1.03 million of these 12.48 million people in employment would be classified as underemployed, ie. they were employed in less than full-time or regular jobs or in jobs inadequate with respect to their training or economic needs. It is likely that around 3 per cent  of this group were employed in low-paying and insecure jobs via federal government Jobactive placements.

The workforce participation rate stood at 65.5% and the unemployment rate was 5.5%.

There were est. 730,200 people between 15 and 65 years of age who were unemployed and looking for work.

There had been 220,800 job vacancies recorded by the end of February 2018.

In March 2018 it was reported that there were 16 job seekers for every position currently available.

See: Australian Bureau of Statistics Employment and Unemployment, Labour Force Australia, Mar 2018, Labour Force, Australia, Jan 2014, Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2005-2018), Australian Unemployed Workers Union, ABC News March 2015 and ABC News March 2018.