Climate change impacts even affect official labour force statistics in 2022

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 19 May 2021:

Impacts from floods in New South Wales and Queensland 

Flooding in New South Wales and Queensland in late February 2022 resulted in a major disruption to the operation of the Labour Force Survey. As a result, there was lower than usual numbers of responding households in some of the affected regions in March 2022. 

Given the severity of these disruptions and to ensure this loss of sample did not affect data for Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the ABS imputed some sample within 15 statistical area level 4 (SA4s) regions for March 2022. This imputation approach drew upon previous information that had recently been collected from people in the affected areas, following the approach used for February 2019 for the Townsville Flood. 

The ABS has re-assessed this imputation, with reference to April 2022 data for the affected areas, and has not revised the imputed data for March. The ABS will continue to monitor the data over coming months and undertake additional analysis of the imputed data as further data becomes available. Data for all SA4s will be published in Labour Force, Australia, Detailed on 26 May 2022. 

[my yellow highlighting]

What the Australian Bureau of Statistics is politely saying is that Labour Force, Australia for April 2022, released on 19 May 2022 – containing headline estimates of employment, unemployment, underemployment, participation and hours worked from the monthly Labour Force Survey – is educated guesswork and voters won’t know if the figures and percentage changes hold until 5 days after the federal general election at the earliest.

In an election year all incumbent governments tend to casually toss around figures which paint rosy pictures. Given the growing reputation of the Morrison Government, perhaps it is wise to at least start off with reliable labor force, cost of living, consumer confidence & job numbers for the first month of 2022 in Australia & New South Wales

 

The first labor force and household economy breakdowns of 2022.

Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), LABOR FORCE: Headline estimates of employment, unemployment, underemployment, participation and hours worked from the monthly Labour Force Survey, January 2022 – released 17 February 2022:

Key statistics

Seasonally adjusted estimates for January 2022:

• Unemployment rate stood at 4.2%

580,000 unemployed - up from 574,400 in December 2021.

• Participation rate increased to 66.2%

Up from 66.1% in December 2021. However, participation decreased by 0.4 pts for men to 70.4% and increased by 0.6 pts to 62.1% for women

• Employment increased to 13,255,000

An increase of 12,900 people or 0.1% since December 2021.

Full-time employment decreased by 17,000 to 9,077,300 people, and part-time employment increased by 30,000 to 4,177,600 people. Part time employed made up 31.5% of all employment.

• Employment to population ratio increased to 63.4%

Up 0.3% since December 2021.

• Underemployment rate increased to 6.7%

Up from 6.6% in December 2021.

• Monthly hours worked decreased by 159 million hours

A decrease of 8.8% (in seasonally adjusted terms) between December 2021 and January 2022.

In New South Wales in January 2022

• Unemployment rate stood at 4.2%

Up 0.2% from December 2021

• Participation rate stood at 64.8%

A 0.2% fall since December 2021.

• Employment stood at 4,137,200

A 0.2% fall since December 2021.

Full time employment fell by 27,100 people and part time employment fell by 42,100 people. Part time employment made up est. 29% of all employment.

• Employment to population ratio fell to 58.2%

Down from 58.4% since December 2021.

• Underemployment rate increased to 6.4%

Up from 6.2% in December 2021.

• Monthly hours worked deceased by est. 78.18 million hours.

Going from 578,333.6 hours in December 2021 to 500,148.7 hours in January 2022.

ANZ Job Ads report, 7 February 2022:

ANZ Australian Job Ads fell 0.3 per cent in January following a downwardly revised 5.8 per cent drop in December. Despite the surge in Omicron cases, Job Ads remained 9.6 per cent above the Delta-lockdown lows. 

Based on ABS, Cost Price Index - Weighted average of eight capital cities, All groups - going into January 2022:

In December Quarter 2021 the Cost Price Index totalled 121.3 - a rise of 1.3% on the September Quarter. The 5 Selected Living Cost Indexes (LCIs) having risen for all 5 household types. 

In the period 1 January to 31 December 2022 the LCI rise across all categories was between 2.6% and 3.4%:

• Transport was the main contributor for all five population sub-groups, with the price of Automotive fuel rising 32%.

• The Age pensioner household sub-group had the highest annual increase (+3.4%). Food makes up a higher proportion of this sub-group compared to the others. This household group also had the highest annual increase in housing costs.

• The Employee household sub-group had the lowest annual increase (+2.6%) due to Mortgage interest charges falling over the year. Excluding Mortgage interest charges, this household group would have risen 3.1%.

Based on ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: 

17-23 January 2022

 Australia - 101.1 up 2.2%, rising above the neutral level of 100 but dropping in NSW by -2.4%.

14-30 January 2022

Australia - 101.8 up 1.7% and, after three weeks of decline in NSW state consumer confidence rose to 6.2%.

A fact sociologists worth their salt know, the better economists remember & conservative politicians can never accept – it is units of labour which drive production & productivity in any economy

The Conversation, 12 January 2022:

Australians are getting a stark reminder about how value is actually created in an economy, and how supply chains truly work.

Ask chief executives where value comes from and they will credit their own smart decisions that inflate shareholder wealth. Ask logistics experts how supply chains work and they will wax eloquent about ports, terminals and trucks. Politicians, meanwhile, highlight nebulous intangibles like “investor confidence” – enhanced, presumably, by their own steady hands on the tiller.

The reality of value-added production and supply is much more human than all of this. It is people who are the driving force behind production, distribution and supply.

Labour – human beings getting out of bed and going to work, using their brains and brawn to produce actual goods and services – is the only thing that adds value to the “free gifts” we harvest from nature. It’s the only thing that puts food on supermarket shelves, cares for sick people and teaches our children.

Even the technology used to enhance workers’ productivity – or sometimes even replace them – is ultimately the culmination of other human beings doing their jobs. The glorious complexity of the whole economy boils down to human beings, using raw materials extracted and tools built by other human beings, working to produce goods and services.

A narrow, distorted economic lens

The economy doesn’t work if people can’t work. So the first economic priority during a pandemic must be to keep people healthy enough to keep working, producing, delivering and buying.

That some political and business leaders have, from the outset of COVID-19, consistently downplayed the economic costs of mass illness, reflects a narrow, distorted economic lens. We’re now seeing the result – one of the worst public policy failures in Australia’s history.

The Omicron variant is tearing through Australia’s workforce, from health care and child care, to agriculture and manufacturing, to transportation and logistics, to emergency services.

The result is an unprecedented, and preventable, economic catastrophe. This catastrophe was visited upon us by leaders – NSW Premier Dom Perrotet and Prime Minister Scott Morrison in particular – on the grounds they were protecting the economy. Like a Mafia kingpin extorting money, this is the kind of “protection” that can kill you…...

Read full article here.

There is a question now hanging over Morrison & Frydenberg's 2022-23 Budget, geared as it is to fulfill the Coalition's yet to be revealed election promises rather than buttressing the nation against the adverse economic winds blowing through countless CBDs around the country. 

An estimated 50 per cent of the national workforce are currently absent from their employment on any given day due to COVID-19 - either workers have contracted the virus, are home looking after a dependent family member/s who is ill with it, have become a "close contact" and are isolating because of it, or their place of employment has temporarily closed due to lack of customers who are afraid of catching it.

It's not just a question of how far household consumption is likely to fall as this situation continues through at least another six weeks. 

Note: as an example, two previous Household Final Consumption Expenditure falls during the pandemic have been 12.2% June Qtr 2020 & 4.8% September Qtr 2021. Periods in which infection growth intensified. 

Neither is it all about the financial pain being felt by small businesses after every Coalition public policy error compounds economic distress at community level, sweeping away hope and income.

It is also about how much will the inevitable loss of production and productivity carve off the value bottom line of states and territories' State Domestic Product (SDP) and what impact that has on Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or the level of eyewatering public debt government has to service. 

Does the Australian economy have the resilience to withstand a full year of  SARS-CoV-2 running unchecked in the general population due to the Coalition's political policy of 'living with COVID'?

No matter how Morrison & Co try to spin the Australian Treasury's 2021 Intergenerational Report, it reveals lacklustre economic growth expected over the next 40 years

In June 2021 the Australian Treasurer and Liberal MP for Kooyong, Josh Frydenberg released the Treasury’s 2021 Intergenerational Report: Australia over the next 40 years

Although a traditionally impartial Treasury complied most of the report’s contents, the partisan political nature of this report can be found kicking off at Line 19 of the Executive Summary, which starts with this untruthful statement:

Australia entered the COVID-19 pandemic from a position of economic and fiscal strength. The budget was in balance for the first time in 11 years…..

North Coast Voices readers would be well aware that 2019-20 national budget papers released in April 2019 forecast a then as yet unrealised balanced budget and return to surplus by 30 June 2020, with surpluses continuing over the medium term. This was a risky assertion to make on the basis of optimistic assumptions not hard facts.

Just how risky became apparent soon after February-March 2020 when the word “surplus” was quietly scrubbed from the Liberal-Nationals political lexicon due to the social and economic upheaval caused by both six years of the Abbot-Turnbull-Morrison Government in Canberra and a highly infectious global pandemic.

By June 2020 Australia’s net debt was expected to peak at $392.3 billion and, by June 2021 there was an est. $829 billion in gross public debt and $617.5 billion in net public debt on the books and an underlying cash deficit in the vicinity of $161 billion, with no budgetary surplus on the horizon.

That might almost be considered to qualify as good news given some of the forecasts contained in the 2021 Treasury intergenerational report. Because that report clearly shows that the COVID-19 global pandemic could cease tomorrow and it would make little difference to Australia’s long term economic recovery.

There will be no post-pandemic ‘snapback’ which will see the national economy quickly flourish.

From 2014 to the present day successive federal governments have trashed the goodwill and tolerance of our political allies and trading partners with anti-science, climate change denialist polices, demonstrated a crass clumsiness and sometimes downright ignorance of international relations and, the complete absence of diplomacy in negotiations with our largest trading partner. While increasing impacts from climate change will, more frequently than in the post-climate crisis era, see a fall in the seasonal/annual volume of agricultural products for export.

The domestic industry and business mindset that insists employers are doing workers a favour by employing them on a low wage with no job security, rather than recognising that the worker creates cashflow and profits by producing actual goods to sell, will in all likelihood actively discourage decent wage growth over the next 40 years.

According to the Executive Summary in the 2021 Intergenerational Report:

….real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow at 2.6 per cent per year over the next 40 years, compared with 3.0 per cent over the past 40 years. Real GDP per person is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 per cent, compared with 1.6 per cent over the past 40 years. Nominal GDP growth is projected to slow to 5.0 per cent per year over the next 40 years, compared with 7.0 per cent over the past 40 years. Real GNI is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 per cent, compared with 3.3 per cent over the past 40 years. Real GNI per person is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.3 per cent, compared with 1.8 per cent over the past 40 years. The larger slowdown in GNI growth than GDP growth reflects an assumption that the terms of trade will decline before stabilising at long-term levels.

Real GDP per person = Gross Domestic Product per person adjusted for inflation
Real GNI per person  = Gross National Income (wages & other earned income)
per person adjusted for inflation
Real GDP = Gross Domestic Product adjusted for inflation
Real GNI = Gross National Income (wages & other earned income)
Nominal GDP =  measures total value of the output produced in Australia, by
adding together Real Gross Domestic Product and prices to produce a close estimate.

Australia's terms of trade is calculated as the ratio of export prices to import prices. If this index increases it implies that Australia is receiving relatively more for its exports; if it decreases then Australia is receiving relatively less. An increase in export prices relative to import prices
implies that Australia is better off; thus an increase in the terms of trade
is sometimes referred to as a favourable movement in the terms of trade. [Australian Parliament House Library, retrieved 07.07.21].


After the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Australia's terms of trade under Labor federal governments peaked in 2010-11 & 2011-12 at 2.1 before falling to 1.0. Subsequent Coalition federal governments peaked at 1.1 in 2020-21. Australia's terms of trade are predicted to return to the 0.9 of the Global Financial Crisis period and stay at
that level until after 30 June 2061. 



Australian Treasury tables attached to the 2021 Intergenerational Report predict that Average Labour Productivity Levels will remain at 1.5
until after 30 June 2061. This is the same level of average labour productivity between approx. 1981 and 2020.


In those same tables Average Gross National Income per person adjusted for inflation is expected to fall from the current 1.8 to 1.3 for the next 40 years. This does not indicate strong wages growth across the board over the next four decades.


After credibly surviving the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis under a
Labor federal government, Australia now faces forty years of struggling
to move past social and economic consequences of the current federal Coalition government’s six years of poor policy decisions and its appalling mismanagement of the global COVID-19 pandemic once it became clear the virus would breach our national borders.

To date only around $120 million in JobKeeper payments appears to have been clawed back from ineligible business and sole trader claimants

 

On 30 March 2020 the Morrison Government announced it would provide a wage subsidy to around 6 million workers who would receive a flat payment of $1,500 per fortnight through their employer, before tax.

The $130 billion JobKeeper payment was expected to help keep Australians in jobs as they tackled the significant economic impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. The payment was open to eligible businesses that receive a significant financial hit caused by the pandemic and provided the equivalent of around 70 per cent of the national median wage commencing in early May 2020 with payments backdated to 31 March.

The first indication that employers were not going to abide by the rules came in April:

By 21 May 2020 media reports began to reveal that a number of employers had been quick to rort the JobKeeper system.

In June 2020 mention began to be made of ‘pop up’ businesses receiving JobKeeper payments even though these businesses were not created until after the wage subsidy scheme was announced.

By 28 August 2020 more than 15,000 businesses have been removed from the scheme after the Australian Tax Office found them to be ineligible.

In that same month it was revealed that at least 25 companies in the ASX 300 had been paying bonuses worth $24 million to executives and millions more in dividends to shareholders after claiming JobKeeper payments.

Come January 2021 and the Australian Taxation Office is still playing catchup with fraud discovered in the wage subsidy scheme and continues in its attempt to retrieve the hundreds of millions in wage subsidy payments it believes have been paid out in fraudulent employer and sole trader claims.

ABC News, 29 January 2021:

Dodgy employers have signed up jailed criminals, people living outside Australia and even the dead to receive $1,500-a-fortnight JobKeeper payments.

These fictitious employees are among thousands of people being pursued by an Australian Taxation Office (ATO) investigation into rorts of the $130 billion wage subsidy program.

"Client is in jail" is one of the categories being scrutinised as a red flag in around 6,000 cases where employers may have created fictitious employees to take advantage of the JobKeeper scheme, hurriedly launched at the end of March last year to keep the economy afloat during the coronavirus pandemic.

Documents obtained using a freedom of information (FOI) application show that, by the end of September, the ATO was investigating 5,974 cases of "inflated employees" in applications for the wage subsidy.

"The reality is you cannot check every application," said lawyer and corporate investigator Niall Coburn.

"So certain things may have been overlooked, but that doesn't stop the Government from now being able to go back and look at the applications in more detail, and that's what seems to be the case here."

Paying the dead

By the end of September, the ATO had 5,974 cases under investigation, with almost a third found to be ineligible. The majority were ineligible because they "involve employers applying under the wrong ABN (business number)".

It noted there "have also been instances of putting spouses 'on the books'," as well as people overseas ("has a valid visa but … out of the country").

A further category of fictious employees were the dead. "Employee in their JobKeeper application that is deceased," the report observed…..

Fraud prevention efforts

In July, the ATO told ABC News 3,000 staff would be doing ongoing reviews of JobKeeper applications.

"At any particular time, we are reviewing between 2 and 3 per cent of JobKeeper applications," an ATO spokeswoman said.

"We will identify those who are intentionally defrauding the system and we will use the full force of the law [to punish them]."

More than 6,500 applications were rejected for a range of reasons, from people making genuine errors to fraudulent behaviour.

In December, the ABC revealed the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) was pursuing criminal investigations into fraud and had issued fines to program applicants who had made false or misleading statements.

BACKGROUND

ABC News, 9 December 2020:

The Australian Taxation Office has 19 active criminal investigations into fraud against the $101 billion JobKeeper scheme.

It has also issued fines to another 19 applicants to the wage subsidy program who have made false or misleading statements, and is considering penalties for another 24.

Since JobKeeper was launched in March, the ATO has clawed back $120 million in payments to applicants who made it into the system but were later found to be ineligible.

"While most businesses and employees are doing the right thing, we have identified concerning and fraudulent behaviour and claims by a small number of organisations and employees," the ATO said in a statement.

The agency declined to comment on whether the criminal investigations relate to employers or employees and would not provide details about any of the businesses involved or when the investigations began.

However, ABC Investigations understands employers and individual workers are being investigated over fraud and abuse of the scheme.

Applicants could face a prison sentence or fines if found guilty of defrauding the scheme……

The fraud investigation revelations come as the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) considers its own probe into the scheme.

According to its website, the ANAO has flagged JobKeeper for a potential audit next year that would include an "examination of the implementation of integrity measures designed to protect the scheme against fraud and other abuse."

The ATO fraud hotline has received more than 10,000 tip-offs about fraud against JobKeeper, including claims that some employers have not been passing on the full subsidy to their employees.

ABC Investigations has also spoken to workers concerned that their employers may have artificially suppressed their revenue in order to qualify for the scheme, for example by delaying invoicing customers or removing popular items from sale in retail stores.

The ATO says it has initiated 14 of the fraud investigations using its powers under the Taxation Administration Act and has referred a further five cases to the Australian Federal Police's Serious Financial Crimes Taskforce.

Smart Company, 10 December 2021:

A marketing company has been made to repay $22,500 in JobKepeer funding, after the Australian Taxation Office received a tip-off the business was misusing the stimulus payments.

The ATO said the tip-off alleged the marketing company had incorrectly claimed JobKeeper for its employees, which came to a total of $12,000 per month.

The ATO’s investigation found two of the company’s four employees were ineligible for JobKeeper, because one was on work experience and not receiving any wages, and the other was hired after March 1, 2020.

The two remaining employees were eligible for JobKeeper, however, the ATO said their employer did not pay them the full $1,500 per fortnight in some periods.

“We determined that it was not an honest mistake and required the employer to repay $22,500,” the ATO said.

The ATO says it is closely tracking the misuse of pandemic support.

The Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government preparing another assault on workers' rights and conditions - this time using the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse

Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison is considering dumping the BOOT test - the better off overall test - that governs the nation's enterprise bargaining system for establishing wages and conditions.

It is clear that he is laying the groundwork for this in the wording used in a press conference on 29 May 2020 when speaking of jobs and industrial relations reform.

Introduced in the 1994 enterprise bargaining is the process of negotiation generally between the employer, employees and their bargaining representatives with the goal of making an enterprise agreement. 

The Fair Work Act 2009 established clear rules and obligations about how this process is to occur, including rules about bargaining, the content of enterprise agreements, and how an agreement is made and approved.

Since the inception of enterprising bargaining est.161,728 enterprise agreements were created. However, only est. 10,877 remained by September 2019, as agreement numbers fell off markedly after a Fair Work Commission decision that every individual worker had to be better off in an enterprise bargaining agreement than under the relevant industry award.

Employers found it harder to reduce wages and conditions after that ruling and lost some of their enthusiasm - preferring instead to increasingly casualise their staff and/or transform them into rolling fixed contract workers.

Now in the middle of a global pandemic business groups are reportedly calling for removal of more conditions from awards and workplace pay deals as key priorities.

With the Australian Industry Group calling for reform in three key industrial relations areas by: 

• changing enterprise bargaining laws in the current Fair Work Act; 
• simplifying awards by removing conditions dealt with in legislation such as annual leave, personal/carer’s leave, redundancy pay, notice of termination, consultation, dispute resolution, flexibility agreements and requests for flexible work arrangements; 
• removing barriers to "flexibility" in awards which would potentially allow lowering of labour costs;
• retaining current civil penalties for underpayment of a worker's wage rather than creating a criminal offence for serious underpayments/deliberate theft;
• abandoning the better off overall test for enterprise agreements;
• further restriction potential union intervention in the enterprise bargaining process;
• further restricting protected industrial action by workers; and 
• extinguishing the new right of casuals working full-time hours to paid annual leave and public holiday entitlements (See Workpac v Rossato & Workpac v Skene).

Using job losses due to COVID-19 pandemic public health orders as an excuse, it is apparent that Morrison intends yet another sustained assault on penalty rates, wages and conditions.

Morrison is willing to progress this assault as far as introducing a bill or bills in the Australian Parliament drafted without the co-operation of unions or even some industry sectors if necessary.

Despite protestations otherwise, it is clear that the Liberal and National political parties are opening up another front in their seemingly endless, ideologically-driven, class war.

Response to the 12th Annual Closing The Gap Report: "We die silently under these statistics"

The Monthly, 12 February 2020:

Northern Territory Labor senator Malarndirri McCarthy gave a devastating interview this morning, ahead of today’s annual Closing the Gap address, drawing a direct connection between the ongoing failure to meet targets to reduce Indigenous disadvantage and the policies of the Coalition government. 

Starting with the Abbott government’s decision to cut the Aboriginal affairs budget by half a billion dollars, McCarthy then cited the disastrous Aboriginal work-for-the-dole scheme (the Community Development Program), the cashless welfare card that “entrenches First Nations people in poverty in this country”, and the out-of-hand rejection by the Turnbull and Morrison governments of the First Nations voice to parliament requested in the Uluru Statement from the Heart. “All of these things are connected to Closing the Gap and improving the lives for First Nations people,” said McCarthy, who went on to slam as an “absolute disgrace” the abandonment of any referendum on constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians after a backlash [$] in the Coalition party room yesterday. 

The key findings of the 12th annual Closing the Gap report, tabled in parliament today, received blanket coverage this morning: only two out of seven targets have been met, on early education and Year 12 attainment, while the other five targets on child mortality, school attendance, literacy and numeracy, employment and life expectancy are all off track. The government has responded by seeking to adopt new targets expected in April, drawn up after a year’s consultation by the Coalition of Peaks representative body chaired by Pat Turner, from the National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation, under a new national agreement to be signed by COAG. Both PM Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese gave set-piece addresses, and the debate continued into Question Time, with no real progress. Fine words every Closing the Gap day achieve nothing – as Crikey’s Bernard Keane writes [$], the sentiments are often the same, from PM to PM, from year to year. 

In a debate this afternoon, shadow Indigenous Australians minister Linda Burney gave a moving speech citing former social justice commissioner Mick Dodson, who said Australians suffered from an “industrial deafness” to the statistics of Indigenous disadvantage, accepting them as almost inevitable. “We die silently under these statistics,” Burney said, flagging that Labor looked forward to supporting new and ambitious Closing the Gap targets. Failure was not inevitable, she said, adding that “once again we offer bipartisanship from this side of the house”. In reply, Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt also stressed the need for bipartisanship, saying: “All of us have failed in the Closing the Gap journey over the last 10 years. The intent has been good … but the model has been broken.” Then he veered into unconvincing management speak: a different paradigm, turning the dial, joint and shared decision making, better ownership at local level, and the engagement of mainstream Australia. 

While nobody is doubting that Wyatt is genuine about his portfolio, it will amount to little if his government colleagues are not behind him. It will be a tragedy if it turns out the first Indigenous minister for Indigenous Australians was appointed for cynical political purposes, and was nobbled from the start....

Read the full article here.

Closing The Gap Report 2020, exerpt:

Progress against the Closing the Gap targets has been mixed over the past decade. 

As four targets expire, we can see improvements in key areas, but also areas of concern that require more progress. 

• The target to halve the gap in child mortality rates by 2018 has seen progress in maternal and child health, although improvements in mortality rates have not been strong enough to meet the target. 

• The target to halve the gap for Indigenous children in reading, writing and numeracy within a decade (by 2018) has driven improvements in these foundational skills, but more progress is required. 

• There has not been improvement in school attendance rates to close the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous school attendance within five years (by 2018). 

• The national Indigenous employment rate has remained stable against the target to halve the gap in employment outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians within a decade (by 2018). 

Two of the continuing targets are on track. 

• The target to have 95 per cent of Indigenous four year-olds enrolled in early childhood education by 2025. 

• The target to halve the gap for Indigenous Australians aged 20–24 in Year 12 attainment or equivalent by 2020. 

However, the target to close the gap in life expectancy by 2031 is not on track. 

Jurisdictions agreed to measure progress towards the targets using a trajectory, or pathway, to the target end point. The trajectories indicate the level of change required to meet the target and illustrate whether the current trends are on track.

BACKGROUND

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics; The final estimated resident Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia as at 30 June 2016 was 798,400 people, or 3.3% of the total Australian population.

It has been estimated that the pre-1788 resident Aboriginal population could have been as high as over one million people, or 100% of the total Australian population.