NSW Clarence Electorate March 2015: So who was trying to fiddle the outcome of a local independent Survey Monkey opinion poll?

It seems that some political party supporters never learn……

This was on Facebook this week.

Rebecca Beare-Bath So who ever has a computer positioned here is adding multiple votes in the same time period from the same IP address:

Which candidate was someone in the Croydon-Five Dock area attempting to boost in this small local poll?

Well it appears Rebecca has the answer:

The opinion poll can be found at https://www.surveymonkey.com/results/SM-VFCSMB37/.

U.S. Politics in 2015: you couldn't make this sh*t up

It seems the U.S. tea party crazies, whom Australian Liberal and Nationals MPs and senators frequently emulate, have finally launched themselves into the political stratosphere.

The Hoopla 17 March 2015:

In an extraodinary step and one that show just how nasty conservative Christianity has become in the US – the State of Oklahoma has just passed a law in its lower house to ban marriage for atheists.

If passed by Oklahoma’s senate, Bill 1125 will mean that no secular marriage licences will be issued. All marriage licences will have to be approved by a member of the clergy. Under the proposal from Republican State Representative Todd Russ… , a marriage would have to be signed off by a preacher, minister, priest, rabbi or ecclesiastical dignitary (no marriage celebrants or judges here)  – which would effectively restrict the right to marry to Christians and Jews.

About non-believers Russ said: “They don’t have a spiritual basis for a marriage and don’t want to have a clergy member or a priest or someone involved in the spiritual aspect, then they can file an affidavit of common-law marriage.”

(Except that, in an absurd twist, the State of Oklahoma doesn’t recognise common-law marriage.)…

At its Third Reading in the Oklahoma House of Representatives on 10 March 2015 Bill 1125 passed: Ayes: 67 Nays: 24.

The latest version of the bill does allow Oklahoma judges and retired judges to perform marriages. Otherwise the only persons who appear able to conduct marriage ceremonies under this bill are an ordained or authorized preacher or minister of the Gospel, priest or other ecclesiastical dignitary of any denomination who has been duly ordained or authorized by the church to which he or she belongs to preach the Gospel, or a rabbi and who is at least eighteen (18) years of age.

In addition the bill states; Marriages between persons belonging to the society called Friends, or Quakers, the spiritual assembly of the Baha'is, or the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, or other assemblies which have no ordained minister, may be solemnized by the persons and in the manner prescribed by and practiced in any such society, church, or assembly.

Under this bill the marriage ceremony must now precede the granting of a marriage licence.

The Oklahoma Senate has not yet voted on the bill.

The State of Oklahoma has a land area of 68,594 sq miles, a population of est 3.8 million people and approximately 290 serving judges unevenly spread across the landscape.

Agnostics, atheists and same sex couples may have to travel some distance to find themselves a judge to perform their marriage ceremonies if this piece of legislative madness makes it into law.

The state issues over 27,000 marriage licences (and grants over 17,000 divorce decrees) each year in Oklahoma.

* Map of Oklahoma's 77 counties, cities & major highways from www.travelok.com

Every Australian Counts launches the DIY Disability Housing Plan

Media release 20 March 2015:

DIY Disability Housing Plan

“While the National Disability Insurance Scheme has been talking about making a plan to start building accessible housing for people with disability, TV’s ‘The Block’ has built 18 units”.

The NDIS at full scheme will have a budget of up to $700 million a year to invest in accessible housing for people with disability. This week we learned that after two years of discussion the housing options paper prepared by the National Disability Insurance Agency has been binned! Instead they are going to discuss the issue again at the next national meeting of disability ministers in April.

John Della Bosca continued “By 2020, there will be 122,000 people with disability eligible for the NDIS without accessible housing. This problem is not going away. It’s time the Ministers took disability housing out of the too hard basket”.

It is taking too long for the governments to come up with a plan and so we are making our own. Today the Every Australian Counts launched the DIY Disability Housing Plan. While our politicians are talking about making a plan, people with disability and their families are going to write a plan ourselves.

John Della Bosca concluded: “We are calling on our 160,000 supporters to send in ideas on how the NDIA should invest $700 million each year to provide accessible housing to people with disability. What they have taken two years to do, we will do in one month.

Contributions to the paper are being made at http://www.everyaustraliancounts.com.au/take-action/

Potential flood impacts of a second Grafton Bridge

What National Party politicians don’t usually mention when bragging about the plan for a second crossing of the Clarence River at Grafton.

Excerpts from Additional Crossing of the Clarence River at Grafton: Flood Impact, Levee Upgrade, and Structural Considerations (June 2014):

4.1. Potential Adverse Flood Impacts

Flood levels within Grafton and South Grafton are largely dictated by the volume of floodwater overtopping the respective levee systems. Upstream of the existing Grafton Bridge, the Grafton and South Grafton levees extend for approximately 10km before tying into naturally high ground. Due to the long length of these levees, slight changes in flood level within the main Clarence River have the potential to considerably alter the volume of water overtopping the levee, possibly resulting in significant variations in flood level behind the levee systems. This has the potential to adversely affect the populations of Grafton and South Grafton, increasing their flood risk exposure. All upgrade options for an additional crossing of the Clarence will increase flood levels. Public concern of this was evident through submissions received during community consultation…….

4.7. Flood Risk Considerations

A problem often experienced by communities protected by levees is complacency regards the likelihood and associated consequences of flooding. When a levee is constructed, the frequency of flooding is reduced, resulting in residents forming the option that the levee has eliminated the flood threat completely. This complacency increases the flood risk within leveed communities. Maddocks et al. (2007) reported that the March 2011 flood was predicted to overtop the levees in Grafton and consequently an attempt was made to evacuate some 12,000 residents. The evacuation was unsuccessful, with only approximately 10% of the people actually evacuating the town. Pfister (2002) stated “the residents of Grafton, having experienced few direct effects of flooding since the construction of the levees, are likely to have developed a low consciousness of the flood threat, and are therefore less ready to act.” Consequently, it appears that although a high levee will provide a high level of protection, it is likely to also induce a high level of community complacency, and when the levee does finally overtop evacuation procedures can be severely hampered and consequences of flooding may be amplified. Community flood education is therefore critical in leveed towns. Flood education aims to increase flood awareness. In times of flood, a flood aware community will be more likely to respond appropriately during an emergency situation. As such, community flood education is an effective means of reducing flood hazard……

4.9. Land Use Controls

…..There is an area that sits outside of the levee system on Carrs Island. Properties on Carrs Island were impacted by Council’s recent upgrading of the South Grafton levee system. As a result, Council has paid to lift several dwelling to place the floor level above the 100yr ARI flood level, as well as building some flood mounds for stock. As such, consideration also needs to be given to the fact that with raising the levee wall, properties sitting just outside of this system have greater impacts during floods. If upgrade of the Grafton and South Grafton levees is proposed as part of the bridge duplication project, further consideration of mitigation measures for the residents of Carrs Island will be necessary……

5. SUMMARY

Roads and Maritime Services (RMS) is currently investigating options for an additional crossing of the Clarence River at Grafton. Without mitigation an additional crossing of the Clarence River will increase upstream flood levels, with adverse impacts to the communities of Grafton and South. RMS intends to maintain the current level of immunity and mitigate any adverse impact from piers and structures within the Clarence River by raising current levees. Although the primary objective of the additional crossing aims to address short-term and long-term transport needs, secondary flood risk management benefits will be an outcome of the project. The additional crossing will significantly improve the flood evacuation situation in Grafton. Furthermore, potential opportunities exist to further reduce flood risk within the respective townships as part of the levee raising exercise which is proposed to mitigate the flood impacts associated with the bridge design. These issues are currently being considered as part of the design process.

I’m sure there are more than a few long time Grafton residents who are hoping that the Baird Government gets the new bridge design right if they do go ahead with construction.

Just as many residents upstream from Grafton are probably hoping that upgraded levees protecting the city don't cause a bottleneck which spreads flooding across their land and, downstream residents hoping this upgrade doesn't funnel more fast moving flood waters towards their towns, villages and farms.

While Clarence Valley Council in its turn is probably hoping that the "good faith" defence in Local Government Act 1993 will cover it should any of the poorly maintained sections of its levee network give way under the pressure of any change in flood behaviour.

A Gamileraay woman has her say about Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott

Natalie Cromb writing in Independent Australia on 15 March 2015:

Tony Abbott — you, sir*, are a troglodyte of the highest order!

Let me preface my rage by saying that I appreciate different points of view and having perspectives broadened and challenged by healthy debate in a diplomatic manner. I appreciate that we all come from different life experiences that can enrich our understanding of certain situations and people. I respect everyone’s opinions as exactly that and try not to become emotional if their opinions are ignorant or offensive.

But having said that, Tony Abbott is a malevolent scum bag. He doesn’t utilise his unique position for the good of the nation, he doesn’t try to listen to the citizens of the nation to broaden his understanding of social, moral, familial, cultural and religious issues.

He pushes his agenda and, when people who actually are actively representing their electorate question his policies and motives, he makes threats and tries to circumvent the process. This sort of behaviour breaches the intent of the separation of powers, upon which this nation’s legal system was built. It is tantamount to a toddler having a tantrum in order to get a Kinder Surprise at the supermarket checkout.

Tony, you have undermined this country in every conceivable way. You say you are a conservative, but you are a radical fascist that is intellectually impotent and emotionally infantile. You cannot grasp simple concepts of decency let alone complex concepts of cultural connection and identity and yet, you say you are “comfortable with your credentials” when it comes to Indigenous Australia.

Cut the crap Abbott, you are not fooling anyone. You are a narcissistic bigot stuck in the 1950’s. You seek to marginalise and berate all that disagree with you. You seek to vilify and undermine all that stand in your way……

* I choked on my coffee as I typed that.

Media cancer reaches NSW North Coast

News Corp has now acquired a 14.99 per cent interest in APN News & Media which owns a number of print and digital newspaper publications on the NSW North Coast and elsewhere in Australia and New Zealand, including some of this region's oldest mastheads such as The Daily Examiner and The Northern Star.

This percentage of ordinary shares not only makes it a substantial shareholder, it is likely to place News Corp (and Murdoch family interests) in the top three* shareholders in this media company.

There is no way of softening this - basically any hope of editorial independence and unbiased reporting continuing into the future has all but disappeared for most of our local media, along with the possibility of retaining any genuine local viewpoint on contentious social, environmental or political issues.

Two years from now what newsagent delivery vans throw onto people's front lawns will more than likely be a poor man's version of that Sydney rag The Daily Telegraph.

News Corp Builds Its Investment in APN News and Media, 18 March 2015

* The Daily Examiner reported on 19 March that News Corp was in fact now APN's largest shareholder.

Tony Abbott is barking mad and the Liberal Party refuses to put him out of his misery

This is what the Australian Parliament Library stated in December 2013 about public debt in the year the Abbott Government was elected:

# General government, as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) comprises all government units (of local, state and national governments) and non-profit institutions controlled and mainly financed by the government.

The general government gross and net foreign debt currently stands at 14.1 and 12.3 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) respectively.

There has been no change in the gross debt, but there has been an increase of 0.1 per cent in net debt as a percentage of GDP since March 2013.

The total Australian public sector (including general government, and financial and non-financial corporations controlled by governments) gross and net foreign debt currently stands at 19.5 and 13.5 per cent of GDP respectively. Gross and net foreign debt has decreased 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points respectively since March 2013.

# The private sector is responsible for 80.5 and 75.0 per cent of Australia’s gross and net foreign debt respectively. This is an increase of 1.7 and 3.1 percentage points of gross and net foreign debt respectively since the March 2013 quarter.

On the basis of these figures Tony Abbott and his Cabinet have been crying ‘debt and deficit disaster’ at every opportunity.

Now all has changed.

This was Prime Minister Abbott quoted in the Financial Review on 18 March 2015:

Tony Abbott promised voters a "dull" May budget and is content for now with current forecasts of a net debt equivalent to 60 per cent of the economy and no surplus for 40 years.

Mr Abbott said while such a debt ratio, four times the current level, was "too high" and "we want to get it in a much better situation than that", he added "a ratio of debt to GDP at about 50 or 60 per cent is a pretty good result looking around the world".

These are graphs of Australia’s net public debt between 1981-82 and 2013-14, with projections up to 2017-18 based on the Abbott Government's first budget, and net interest payments covering the same periods:

The Guardian 9 June 2014

The difference between the historical record, the last full financial year, what Abbott promised in May 2014 and what he now expects voters to tolerate is mindboggling.

In the space of one budget cycle Abbott has altered his expectations and now predicts that net public debt will grow by an estimated 46.5 per cent over the next 39 years.

What renders his new fiscal position so bizarre is that there appears to be no economic need for the level of debt he now wants the nation to carry as the only way this level of growth in public debt could occur is if, by his own admission, the Federal Government did nothing but sit on its hands for the next thirty-nine years and introduce no new finance policies.

Indeed I strongly suspect that Australia has not carried even a ratio of 60 per cent (or higher) gross public debt to GDP since the period covering 1942-1950, when the nation was in the middle of an almost six year-long world war and then was starting to pay down war debts.