Thursday, 22 November 2007

State swing predicted to deliver all NSW North Coast seats to Labor


The last cumulative Newspoll from Possum Comitatus at Possums Pollytics.

Possum's breakdown of seats, using uniform state swings and Antony Green's House of Representatives election calculator, shows all 3 North Coast seats possibly falling to Labor.

Cowper gained by Labor with an 0.5% swing
Page gained by Labor with an 3.2% swing
Richmond retained by Labor with an 8.6% swing


Possum Pollytics home page:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com

Bob Brown favourite for lamb roast dinner invitations: gently poking fun at online polling

It was obvious from the very start of this election campaign that the media were going to make much of opinion polling and that the rest of us would eventually follow along. So North Coast Voices ran a series of very unscientific opinion questions with an almost minute response rate, and here is what we 'found'.
 
Readers of North Coast Voices posts (who also love to tick boxes) are as likely as not to think that the Labor Party will win the most federal seats on the NSW North Coast, would rather invite Bob Brown home for a lamb roast, believe the Greens are the most honest and trustworthy political party, were just as likely to know nothing of local candidates as to have an opinion on individual campaign performance, and if they had their way, John Howard and his descendants would be barred from future election to the Australian Parliament.
 
Happy Exit Polling everyone!

Say that again, John?

Yesterday The Age reported that John Howard (when laying out his 5-point plan to a group of Sydney business leaders) was warning that his government should be returned come Saturday or the sky would fall in.
"He said every change of Government since the end of World War II had resulted in a profound change in the nature of the country."
 
Hold on, John - say that again? So your government effected profound change when it came to power in 1996. Think more than a few of us would agree with that. Australia is now a more divisive and unequal country, where unsafe and unhappy is the condition of a great many.
As Prime Minister and leader of a parliamentary coalition you broke the social contract between government and the governed while calling this a virtue.
 
You've never been good for the soul of this country - it's time you and Janette faced the fact.

Deputy Prime Minister threatens North Coast with unwanted population explosion

Mark Vaile was on the NSW North Coast again this week and one can see that he is reacting to the local Nationals own white shoe brigade's develop-to-death philosophy.
He has promised $5 million to encourage more sea and tree changers to regional areas.
Great one, Deputy Prime Minister. Just what we need. A Coalition Government which will add to the environmental, social and infrastructure stress already being felt due to sustained coastal population growth. 
Five million dollars wouldn't even solve waste and storm water problems in one local government growth area.
Mr. Vaile shouldn't be listening so uncritically to his local candidates - at least one of them has a long history as a land developer.
Instead he should be listening to coastal residents who have been saying for years that they don't want to turn into a Gold Coast or unsustainably developed south-east Queensland.
But then, genuinely listening was never the strong suit of the Coalition Government.
The Australian yesterday:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22796271-5013871,00.html

Rotten lying rodents seemingly abound in Howard's Australia

If there was something more needed to convince Australia that John Howard needs to go, it might be that this latest attempt at racist campaign mischief may be just that little thing which tips the balance.
 
In The Daily Telegraph this morning.
 
"THE Liberal Party has been hugely embarrassed over a campaign team caught delivering fake letters linking Labor with the Bali bombers.
The grubby night-time operation in St Marys, in the seat of Lindsay, was busted by a squad of ALP sleuths who conducted a stake-out.
Police have been called in to investigate the distribution of the letter, as well as the Australian Electoral Commission.
The Liberal Party yesterday expelled two members involved in the scheme.
The gang included Gary Clark, husband of retiring MP for Lindsay Jackie Kelly, and party state executive member Jeff Egan. Another was named by Labor as Troy Craig, president of the Glenmore Action Group."
 
Alleged timeline:
"TUESDAY: Labor officials, acting on a tip-off, stake-out a Penrith house:
8PM to 8.30pm: Three cars park near the house and the occupants enter it;
8.40PM: A group of men leave the house and walk up the road to Ms Kelly's residence;
8.58PM: Six men leave the Kelly house to the three cars which arrived earlier, and drive to the Great Western Highway;
9.25PM: At St Marys they turn into Glossop St, then Debrincat St where they separate at corner with Boronia Rd.
9.30PM: Two men seen putting material into Boronia Rd letterboxes, which the ALP shadows find to be the fake Islamic Australia Federation letters.
The Labor men confront the pair and identify one as Mr Egan, a prominent Liberal Party figure in the Blue Mountains area.
9.30PM: Two men seen letterboxing the same material in Maple Rd. They are approached and identified as Ms Kelly's husband Gary Clark and a man said to be president of a residents' action group."
 
The Daily Telegraph articles:

Campaign Day 39 - we all deserve medals

Thankfully all election advertising went off television and radio airways as of midnight, but your phone might still bite because those pesky, tinny recorded campaign messages are still allowed.
Newspapers will as usual carry those last minute attempts to sway voters of course, and today and tomorrow may still see some libellous Nationals garbage turning up in letter boxes across Australia.
Probably a crude leaflet all about how the Greens/Democrats/Labor, and anyone but themselves, will shear your granny and rape the sheep.
These last six weeks have been an endurance marathon for everyone with the misfortune to not be able to afford an extended overseas holiday.
John Howard deserves to lose this election solely on the grounds that he authorised our protracted torture.
I hope his chooks turn into emus and kick his dunny down.

Will Gulaptis lose the Nationals' family jewels?

National Party candidate for Page, Chris Gulaptis, should be having restless nights in the run-up to Saturday's election. The prospects of Page falling to Labor must be causing Gulaptis and his supporters, who include former Deputy Speaker and experienced head kicker Ian Causley, to have grave concerns. The Nationals have bankrolled Gulaptis's campaign to an incredible extent. Nightly commercial television news has had an appearance that it's been the filler between a steady stream of ads for Gulaptis and his counterpart Sue Page, who is contesting Richmond for the Nats. Some locals in Page have been on the receiving end of three, four and in some cases five direct mail outs from the Gulaptis team.

On top of the direct cash funding the Nats have thrown Gulaptis's way, there's been no shortage of Government members visit the electorate and throw their weight behind Gulaptis. Locals have lost count of the number of times National Party leader Mark Vaile has visited the electorate. Local wags reckon Vaile will soon have to notify the AEC of a change of address to one that's in Page. Pity he didn't do that before the rolls closed - that would have allowed him to vote for Gulaptis who resides in the electorate of Cowper and doesn't get to vote for himself.

In a move that shows all the signs of desperation Vaile, speaking at the coalition's corporate lunch in Sydney, said that Labor was a bunch of burglars intent on stealing the coalition's family jewels.

Vaile said, "We cannot allow this to be put at risk. We cannot allow a bunch of burglars to slip through the side window and steal the family jewels now that we have created them."

Who does Vaile think he is?

A local in Page remarked, "I think the biggest issue for The Nationals is that the seats they hold tend to be the poorest seats in the country. What has been happening for the last 11 years? It is only now the money has started flowing because they are desperate."

The local resident added that the issue most concerning to him was the prospect of a nuclear reactor on the NSW north coast.

AAP reports that Gulaptis's son had this to say about his father:

"He is my Dad. How embarrassing."

For further details, read AAP's report at: http://milton.yourguide.com.au/news/breaking/general/strong-economy-taken-for-granted-vaile/1090648.html



How I see the day I quit or John-in-Wonderland

These days John Howard's view of his world is a wonder to behold.
 
Howard in The Sydney Morning Herald on Tuesday.
"Mr Howard yesterday said Treasurer Peter Costello would replace him unopposed as Liberal leader when he steps down, even though the choice is ultimately up to the party room.
The prime minister today defended that statement and offered a candid insight into what would happen on that fateful day.
"I will go into the party meeting and say I hereby resign as leader of the Liberal Party, and everybody will sort of say 'right o', they'll know it's coming, then I'll sit down and say 'does anybody want to nominate'," Mr Howard told reporters.
"In our party you nominate by standing and people will stand and in my view nobody else will stand, and he will be elected unopposed."
 
Who is he kidding? If the Howard Government fails to win re-election this Saturday, John Howard will be lucky to survive his concession speech without multiple bloody knives in the middle of his back. If the Coalition regains government by a severely reduced majority, John Howard will face leadership challengers aplenty before his preferred time to resign.
 
The Sydney Morning Herald articles:

Wednesday, 21 November 2007

Punters odds still set for major Labor victory on NSW North Coast

Sportingbet at 3.23pm today.
 
PAGE
Janelle Saffin (ALP)   $1.53
Chris Gulaptis (NATS) $2.35
 
RICHMOND
Justine Elliot (ALP)     $1.80
Sue Page (NATS)        $6.00
 
COWPER
Not found but Centrebet has Luke Hartsuyker at 1.41 and Paul Sekfy at 2.70
 
It appears that Australia-wide more punters are betting on Labor to win government.
 
The Northern Star today: