A tale of three federal opinion polls

Same subject and two polls show a similar two-party preferred result.

Morgan Research:

March 23 2015

Finding No. 6138

Topic: Federal Poll Public Opinion

Finding No. 6138– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, March 14/15 & 21/22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,146 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.

ALP support increased to 56% (up 2.5%), still well clear of the L-NP 44% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.  If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, March 14/15 & 21/22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,146 Australian electors aged 18+.

Primary support for the ALP increased to 40% (up 2%) now ahead of the L-NP 38% (down 1%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 11% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1.5% (down 0.5%) while Independents/ Others were 9.5% (unchanged).

Support for PUP is highest in Western Australia (4%) and Tasmania (4%) with little support in all other States following the defection of Queensland PUP Senator Glenn Lazarus last week to become an Independent Senator alongside his former party colleague Jacqui Lambie, now an Independent Tasmanian Senator.

Essential Research 24 March 2015:

This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online from the 20th to 23rd March and is based on 1,012 respondents.

While the third poll shows a very different two-party preferred result.

Newspoll 23 March 2015:

NSW State Election 2015: links to Virtual Tally Room, online radio & live TV commentary

NSW Electoral Commission Virtual Tally Room - online from 6 pm AEDT with progressive figures displayed. XML format figures at ftp.elections.nsw.gov.au.

ABC News 24 Election Centre - from 6pm AEDT onwards.

ABC Radio 702 Sydney - election night cover.

Twitter - @702sydney, @abcnews, @AntonyGreenABC

Hashtag - #nswvotes

ABC Election Calculator - predictive tool which gives number of Coalition & Labor seats based on percentage swings.

The Sydney Morning Herald NSW Decides  and ABC NSW Votes – online reading before the polling booths close.

Sausage Sizzle Locator - for the hungry

Being a female politician in Australia....

It helps to have a sense of humour.

This is The Greens' Senator Sarah Hanson-Young

https://youtu.be/7HfBwVee6Ao

https://youtu.be/3KKLN4J6gXc

In which Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop suffers silently

Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey tries the patience of his colleague, Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, when in the middle of what was supposed to be a tribute to the late Malcolm Fraser he alluded to the current razor gang within the party which has so enthusiastically reduced her department's foreign aid budget.

ABC Vine 23 March 2015:

Of course, he was the great initiator—and we will be forever thankful—of the Expenditure Review Committee. That committee has endured, much to the chagrin of my colleagues. But it has endured and it is one of his many lasting legacies.

Will Far North Coast voters significantly change the composition of the NSW Legislative Assembly tomorrow?

The NSW Legislative Assembly as of 27 March 2015:

Graphic from The Australian 

All members of the Assembly by name (alphabetical order) here.

What is at stake for the NSW North Coast tomorrow?

The ability to protect our:

1. farm land from industrialisation by the gas industry;

2. rivers and water supplies from being depleted and/or contaminated by the mining industry;

3. local economies from the effects of Points 1 & 2;

4. state-owned native forests and remnant forest in private hands from clear fell logging or over clearing due to the current state government's ongoing dismantling of environmental protections;

5. communities and local councils from increases in electricity costs flowing from the proposed removal of high-voltage transmission lines from public ownership for the next 4 generations of North Coast families;

6. older people from loss of affordable services to assist them to live at home in their communities due to the current state government's intention to sell Home Services of NSW to an as yet unidentified multinational company combined with the federal government's increased cost to clients of federal home care services including Meals-On-Wheels;

7. TAFE colleges from further teaching cuts so that young people are able to train across a wide range of trades and professions;

8. local legal aid services from further funding cuts through state imposed efficiency and other ‘savings’;

9. regional state government agencies from closure or downsizing so that job losses don’t become entrenched;

10. our local governments from eventually being turned into one large super council reaching from the NSW-Qld border down into the Great Southern Lakes region; and

11. families, villages, towns, and farming communities from local state MPs who have stopped fighting on our behalf or never even began to effectively represent their electorates in the NSW Parliament.

Is NSW Premier Baird trying to hide the Chinese connection in his electricity network privatisation plans?

The Sydney Morning Herald 26 March 2015:

A Chinese government-owned energy company that is a potential buyer of NSW electricity assets, State Grid Corp, was the subject of a "major" state audit last year which uncovered allegations of corruption amounting to more than $1 billion.

As Premier Mike Baird on Wednesday was asked more questions about the company and its dealings with the NSW government it has emerged that State Grid Corp's president, Liu Zhenya, was named as a key focus of the probe.

Mr Baird's office confirmed that a State Grid Corp executive, Shu Yinbiao, was one of those present at a business roundtable addressed by Mr Baird during his trip to China in September, not its president Mr Liu as previously advised……

However, the Wall Street Journal said in June the audit, which also involved another state-owned electricity company, China Southern Power Grid Company, focused on contracts for a west-to-east electricity transmission system.

The newspaper said China's national audit agency alleged that "more than $1 billion was misappropriated in less than four months [during 2013] in the construction and running of portions of a major electricity grid system".

Asked if Mr Baird knew about the revelations before his China visit, his office said it had "no further comment".

Fairfax Media can reveal that State Grid Corp's attendance at a roundtable addressed by Mr Baird was omitted from an official report on his trade trip to China last year.

Mr Baird on Wednesday repeatedly refused to detail meetings held during the trip to China last September, which aimed to drum up interest in NSW infrastructure projects.

The Coalition government's plan to partially lease the electricity "poles and wires" and spend the proceeds on infrastructure is the centrepiece of its re-election campaign…..

Under Mr Baird's reforms to political lobbying, ministers are required to publish details of external meetings.

But on Wednesday Mr Baird said the rules did not apply to trips abroad, saying "there's a different process for international trips, that's well established".

A spokesman for Mr Baird later said the Department of Premier and Cabinet had been advised that details of ministers' meetings on official overseas missions "should not be disclosed through the ministerial diary process as there is appropriate disclosure of such meetings through mission reports".

However the mission report from Mr Baird's China trip does not mention a meeting with State Grid Corp.

Asked later on Wednesday why the meeting was omitted, Mr Baird said he had complied with disclosure obligations for overseas trips.

At the news conference he declined to say who else was at the September roundtable meeting.

"I am not going to go into individual meetings. As Treasurer and Premier I met with hundreds if not thousands [of potential investors]. My job is to encourage investment into NSW," he said…..