US 08: when fat counts at the ballot box?

It seems that many political commentators are reduced to reading tealeaves at this early stage of a U.S. presidential race. One which will apparently be decided more on the basis of the voluntary turnout level at polling booths than it is by the stated preferences of current poll respondents.

Image from Cleveland.com

From The Hindu on Sunday

London (PTI): Barack Obama, who hopes to become the first Black-American President, may be ahead of Republican candidate John McCann in some opinion polls, but when it comes to figure, he is far behind. In fact, 'The Wall Street Journal' has indicated that Obama is too thin to win the White House as his slim physique could be a liability in a nation of mostly obese voters and it might also affect his presidential campaign.

To be specific, the report suggested that Obama might be too thin and too fit to appeal to voters who tend to like candidates with flaws that they can identify with, British newspaper 'The Sunday Times' reported.

The Kansas City Star points out

When I'm 64

John McCain holds a 10-point lead over Barack Obama among likely Florida voters who are older than 55 — 51 percent to Obama's 41 percent, according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll.

The Star tells us

Just when you think you've got the presidential race figured out, something comes along to upend your carefully wrought conclusions.

Mainstream media provided lavish coverage of Barack Obama's trip abroad the week of July 21 and predicted he would get a bounce in the polls. Some of his supporters believe he has put the election away. Other observers employ the hackneyed and meaningless phrase, "it's his to lose."

The poll numbers tell a different and more nuanced story. The two national tracking polls showed Obama getting a bounce while he was in Europe, especially after his speech before 200,000 or so Berliners. Gallup showed him rising from a 46 per cent to 42 per cent lead over John McCain on July 22 to a 49-40 per cent lead on July 26. The Rasmussen tracking poll showed him rising from a 47 per cent to 45 per cent lead on July 23 (reflecting the previous days' polling) to 49-43 per cent on July 26.

But over the next several days, Obama bounced back down. Gallup showed him leading by a statistically insignificant 45 per cent to 44 per cent as of July 31. That's the closest the race had been in Gallup all that month. Rasmussen had him down to 48-46 per cent on the same day. The world tour bounce has begun to look like a bubble.

Yesterday The Associated Press reported

WASHINGTON (AP) — Intensified attacks by Republican John McCain on the character of his Democratic opponent have coincided with Barack Obama losing a nine percentage point advantage in a national poll, which showed the candidates running dead even over the weekend.

McCain, who had vowed to avoid the kind of negative tactics that were used against him in the 2000 Republican primary contest with George W. Bush, began attacking Obama during the Illinois senator's trip to Iraq and Afghanistan late last month.

In the course of the McCain offensive, Obama's lead in a Gallup Poll tracking survey slid from nine percentage points on July 26, when he returned from overseas, to nothing by Saturday, when the poll showed the candidates tied at 44 percent.

While KSWO 7 News lets us know

TULSA, Okla. (AP) - A new poll found little support among Oklahoma voters for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.
The Oklahoma Poll found that Republican John McCain has broad support in the state to lead Obama by 32%age points, 56% to 24%. Seventy-one percent of those questioned say they are firm in their decisions.
The poll, sponsored by the Tulsa World and television station KOTV, is a statewide survey of 750 likely voters that was conducted July 19-23. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.58%age points.