This week News Corp and its part-owned polling company Newspoll was trumpeting a poll bounce for Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott on the back of national security issues.
However, another polling company Roy Morgan Research had a different assessment of how Australians reacted to Abbott’s national security media blitz.
The Australian 23 September 2014:
SUPPORT for the Coalition has risen to a five-month high as voters show their approval of Tony Abbott’s handling of national security matters, with a six-point leap in the Prime Minister’s personal satisfaction rating taking it to the highest level since November.
The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, reveals the government’s primary vote has climbed two points to 41 per cent while Labor dropped one point to 34 per cent. It is the Coalition’s highest level of support since April — before its poorly received budget sent its core vote tumbling as low as 35 per cent — but still below the 45.6 per cent achieved when it won the election last year…..
Based on preference flows at the last election, the Coalition has narrowed the two-party-preferred gap although Labor is still ahead by 51 per cent to 49 per cent. Labor has been ahead in two-party terms for 11 consecutive Newspoll surveys.
Roy Morgan Research 22 September 2014:
Abbott’s decision to ‘send in the troops’ fails to secure poll bounce: Young Australians comprehensively reject the Abbot Government
September 22 2014 | Finding No. 5824 | Topic: Federal Poll Public Opinion
Finding No. 5824 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of September 13/14 & 20/21, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,922 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.
In mid-September ALP support rose to 54.5% (up 0.5%) increasing their lead over the L-NP 45.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If an election had been held the ALP would have won easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,922 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.
Primary support for the ALP rose to 37.5% (up 0.5% over the past fortnight) whilst L-NP primary support was up 0.5% to 38.5%. Support for the other parties shows The Greens rose to 12% (up 1.5%), the Palmer United Party (PUP) 4.0% (down 0.5%) while Independents/ Others fell 2% to 8%.
Support for PUP is highest in the three States that elected Palmer United Party Senators: Queensland (7%), Western Australia (5%) and Tasmania (4%). Support for PUP is lower in the rest of Australia: Victoria (3%), New South Wales (2.5%) and South Australia (2%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows ALP support well ahead amongst women: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43% on a two-party preferred basis. However, men also support the ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%.
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP (76.5%) cf. L-NP (23.5%); 25-34yr olds favour the ALP (62.5%) cf. L-NP (37.5%); 35-49yr olds favour the ALP (55.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%); 50-64yr olds favour the ALP (53%) cf. L-NP (47%); only those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP (60.5%) cf. ALP (39.5%).
Analysis by States
The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except Queensland. New South Wales: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Victoria: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Western Australia: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, South Australia: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44% and Tasmania: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%. Queensland is level pegging: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 95.5pts this week (up 0.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 42.5% (down 0.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and 38% (unchanged) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!
The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll*, show the ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5 %) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.
Gary Morgan says:
“Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s decision to commit 600 Australian troops to Iraq has failed to boost the Government in today’s Morgan Poll. This is unusual as the Morgan Poll has shown on past occasions that external security threats usually favour the incumbent Government. This was the case in early 2003 in the run-up to Iraq War and also in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
“In addition, Prime Minister Abbott lifted the Australian terrorism alert to high for the first time ten days ago (September 12, 2014) just before this polling period began. However, in contrast to what the Morgan Poll has shown in the past the L-NP has received no ‘poll boost’ in the past fortnight with the ALP (54.5%, up 0.5%) increasing their two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (45.5%, down 0.5%).
“The small boost in support to the ALP comes despite a special snap SMS Morgan Poll last week showing a narrow majority of Australians (54%) approving of Abbott’s decision to send 600 Australian troops to Iraq against 46% that disapprove. Interestingly, the snap SMS Morgan Poll showed a majority of men and Australians aged 35+ approved of sending the troops whereas a majority of women and Australians aged 18-34 disapproved.
“Supporting the sentiment amongst younger Australians against sending Australian troops to Iraq is a strong swing to the ALP amongst 18-24yrolds in today’s Morgan Poll. Now a huge 76.5% (up 15.5%) of 18-24yr olds support the ALP cf. 23.5% (down 15.5%) support the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis.
“The extensive raids carried out last week against potential terrorists in Australia have had a strong impact on the electorate with a separate special snap SMS Morgan Poll last week showing a narrow majority of Australians (52.5%) support the death penalty being imposed for people convicted of a terrorist act in Australia that kills someone compared to 47.5% that are opposed. This is the first time a majority of Australians have favoured the death penalty being imposed for any crime since 1995 when 53% of Australians supported the death penalty for convicted murderers.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).
Finding No. 5824 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of September 13/14 & 20/21, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,922 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.
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