How does Prime Minister Abbott compare with Gillard, Howard and Keating immediately after their first budgets?

In an effort to minimise the Australian Coalition Government's post-budget polling disaster there appear to have been efforts to insert a little spin into how the media reported the facts.

This was Prime Minister Tony Abbott in The Sydney Morning Herald on 19 May 2014:

"I think the last government which brought down a very tough budget – the Howard government in 1996 - took a big hit in the polls too.”

This was Channel 9 News on 20 May 2014:

Tony Abbott may not be Australia's most popular prime minister following the release of the Federal Budget but he's still less despised than Paul Keating and Julia Gillard…

But are these statements true when comparing like periods in office?

Using one opinion poll in order for maximum similarity in survey methodology, below are the satisfaction results for Keating, Howard, Gillard and Abbott from the first Newspoll after they became prime minister to the Newspoll immediately after they delivered their first budgets.

It is obvious that after his first budget was delivered on 18 August 1992 Newspoll respondents were only 7 percentage points more dissatisfied with Keating’s performance as prime minister than they were with Abbott’s performance five days after his 13 May 2014 first budget.

Howard after his first budget of 20 August 1996 was streets ahead of Abbott - with those satisfied with his performance coming in at 51% compared with Abbott’s 30% and, those dissatisfied being 34% compared with Abbott’s 60%.

After her first budget on 10 May 2011, Gillard outperformed Abbott with regard to the number of respondents satisfied with her as prime minister (34%) and the lower number dissatisfied with her performance (51%).

PAUL KEATING

JOHN HOWARD

JULIA GILLARD

TONY ABBOTT

So how much budget pain is the Abbott Coalition Government inflictng on Clarence Valley residents?

Millionaire Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann 

enjoying their cigars in a Parliament House courtyard, May 2014

The absence of any estimates of distributional impacts for different household types in the Abbott Government's 2014-15 Budget Papers means that there is no collated reference point one can go to in order to easily evaluate how progressive or regressive this federal budget is and, I suspect that this is a deliberate attempt to make the facts as difficult to find as possible for both voters and the media.

However, this post is an attempt to broadly outline how some of the budget measures are likely to impact on the 51,043 people living in the Clarence Valley on the NSW North Coast. [Profile.id,Clarence Valley Estimated Resident Population, 30 June 2013]

In the Clarence Valley there are up to an estimated 330 individuals who may possibly have personal taxable incomes (as opposed to gross incomes) above $180,000 per annum and therefore over the next four years may be subject to the 2% ‘deficit’ levy on their taxable incomes in excess of that amount. This is likely to total between $400 to $10,000 per person by 2017-18, with the majority probably paying under $3,000. [Australian Tax Office, 2011-12 Individual Tax Table 6, updated April 2014]

However, there are an est. 8,248 individuals receiving Centerlink or Veterans Affairs age pensions and an est. 3,711 receiving disability support pensions who will see changes to eligibility, indexation and deeming rules for these pensions under recently announced budget measures. [Australian Bureau of Statistics, National Regional Profiles by LGA 2007-2011]

The new pension indexation will see the real value of these pension payments fall by an est. $4,352 to $5,853 per person between 2017-18 and 2020-2 if the Abbott Government is re-elected. [Combined Pensioners and Superannuants Association of NSW, media release, 15 May 2014]

Further, there are an est. 5,459 individuals under 30 years of age living in the Clarence Valley and many of these people may not be eligible for unemployment benefits for up to six months if they lose their jobs after 1 January 2015, as well as an estimated 3,906 one income families receiving Tax Benefit B who will have their payment frozen at 2014 levels for the next two years and who lose this payment after June 2015 if none of their children is under 6 years of age or their annual income is above $100,000. [Australian Bureau of Statistics, National Regional Profiles by LGA 2007-2011]

From 1 January 2015 unemployed people under 25 will get Youth Allowance not Newstart. This is a reduction in unemployment benefit of $96 per fortnight for a 22-24 year old single person with no children and $93 per fortnight for a married couple with no children in that same age group. [Australian Dept. of Human Services, 28 March 2014]

Single income families with a disposable income of $2,014 per week in 2016-17 will lose between $18 to $82 per week due to new budget measures, depending on the number of children in the family. [Whiteford, P & Nethery, D, Sharing the budget pain, May 2014]

Finally, every household receiving the renamed energy supplement will find it permanently frozen at the 1 July 2014 payment level, even though household energy costs are still predicted to rise over time.

When one adds increased medical/pharmaceutical costs, reduced Medicare rebates on a number of services, loss of some other tax and welfare related concessions, then the est. 73.6% of the local population with incomes under $46,000 per annum (and the 50% of households with weekly incomes under $769 per week) will be doing it hard under this Federal Government. [Profile.id, Clarence Valley Community Profile, individual incomes 2011 and Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Census QuickStats - Clarence Valley]

Background:

2014-14 Budget Papers

How long can NSW state and local governments continue to offer pensioner concessions now that the Abbott Government has terminated the COAG National Partnership Agreement on Certain Concessions for Pensioners Concession Card and Seniors Card Holders

Abbott Government 2014-15 Budget Papers excerpt:

The National Partnership Agreement on Certain Concessions for Pensioners Concession Card and Seniors Card Holders states that:

the Commonwealth and the States and Territories (the States) recognise that they have a mutual interest in improving outcomes for Pensioner Concession Card holders and Seniors Card holders, and need to work together to achieve those outcomes.

and

There are two components to the Agreement:

(a) The first component relates to the Commonwealth’s contribution to the provision of certain concessions to pensioners. This dates from the 1993 agreement whereby the Commonwealth and the States agreed that certain concessions would be provided by the States to all Pension Concession Card holders without discrimination between cardholders, in return for indexed Commonwealth funding.

(b) The second component relates to the Commonwealth’s contribution to the provision by State governments of Designated Public Transport Concessions to all Australian Seniors Card holders using public transport services, irrespective of the Senior Card holder’s state of residence. This component commenced in 2008-09 as a Commonwealth initiative under the ‘Making Ends Meet’ plan for older Australians, people with disabilities and carers.

and

a) Certain concessions for Pensioner Concession Card holders means those rebates made available to all Pensioner Concession Card holders, regardless of payment rate or type, for local government rates including land, water and sewerage; energy; motor vehicle registration and public transport concessions. Public transport concessions must be provided to all Pensioner Concession Card holders regardless of their state of residence. This requirement does not apply to state-funded concessions provided to Pensioner Concession Card holders using long distance transport services.

(b) Designated public transport concessions to Seniors Card holders means concessions provided by State or Territory governments to out-of-state Seniors Card holders on the same basis as they are provided to resident Seniors Card holders, subject to any exclusions agreed in writing by the Commonwealth and the relevant State Portfolio Minister. [National Partnership Agreement on Certain Concessions for Pensioners Concession Card and Seniors Card Holders]

This COAG agreement was not due to expire until 30 June 2016. The agreement was worth about $99.9 million to New South Wales in 2012-13 and, as part of this funding is indexed it would possibly be worth more this year.

So what New South Wales pensioner concessions are involved?

In NSW pensioners are eligible for a concession of up to $250 on the combined ordinary rates and waste management charge applied by councils. However, councils are only reimbursed for 55% of the actual cost. [Comrie J, NSW Local Government Rating And Charging Systems And Practices, April 2013]

Pensioners who are owner/occupiers of the home in which they live may also be eligible for a rebate on water charges of up to $87.50 per annum [NSW Local Government Act 1993 - Sect 575]

Pensioners are also eligible for the Low Income Household Rebate which provides:

$225 (excluding GST) a year to eligible customers who hold an electricity account. This will increase to $235 on 1 July 2014; and

$247.50 a year to eligible long-term residents of caravan and mobile home parks and residents of retirement villages who receive electricity bills from village operators. This will increase to $258.50 on 1 July 2014. [NSW Trade & Investment, 2014]

Currently NSW pensioners are exempt from motor vehicle registration fees (including HVIS inspection fees) on one vehicle. [NSW Roads & Maritime Services, June 2013]

Bus and train travel concessional fares are available to pensioners living in New South Wales, including metropolitan Pensioner Excursion tickets and the $2.50 Country Pensioner Excursion ticket . [NSW Government, Transport for NSW, 15 April 2014]

Without on-going funding from the Federal Government, one has to wonder how long state and local governments will be able to continue to recognise all these existing pensioner concessions at their current levels.

UPDATE

The Daily Examiner 19 May 2014:

PENSIONER discounts for rates could knock more than half a million dollars off the Clarence Valley's bottom line over the next four years if measures in the Federal Budget are passed.

A council spokesman said the council offered rates and water rates subsidies to pensioners partially covered by federal and state government grants….

Council's corporate director Ashley Lindsay said the federal budget, if passed, would have an immediate and lasting impact on the finances of all councils, including the Clarence Valley.

He said the biggest impact was through the budget measure to pause annual increases for financial assistance grants, which have historically been indexed in line with the consumer price index and population growth.

He said that in 2013-14, the council received a total $10,240,000 in general purpose and roads grants from the Commonwealth Government.

"Based on the assumption of the CPI running at 2.5% a year from 2014-15 to 2017-18, the impact of this measure to pause the CPI indexation on the financial assistance grants will cost council about $1.063 million in reduced grant income over four years," he said.

He said another substantial impact on council's finances came from the Commonwealth's decision to remove a rate subsidy it provided pensioners and other concession card holders.

Council provides concession card holders with discounts on their general rates and on their water and sewer charges….

Under changes announced in the Federal Budget, the Commonwealth will drop its contribution to rate subsidies to concession card holders, meaning the council will need to increase its contribution to 50%.

In 2014-15 that is estimated to cost the Clarence Valley Council $121,582.

Over four years, the council would be out of pocket $504,688. Mr Lindsay said the re-introduction of indexation of fuel excises would further impact on council's finances.

He said a one cent a litre increase in diesel prices would add $11,600 to council's costs and a similar price rise for E10 prices would add another $2900 to the fuel bill.

Member for Page Chris Gulaptis said the big issues for the states was the loss of $80 billion for health and education.

"To be truthful I haven't considered things like the pensioner concessions," he said….

Time for motorists on the NSW North Coast to keep a watchful eye out for echidna 'love' trains on local roads

Don't turn this.....

Into this.....

Drive carefully between now and September as echidnas start to congregate and mate in preparation for their annual July-August breeding period when adult females will either be carry an egg or a very small baby in their pouches.

* Photographs found at Google Images

Puppet On A String: Bronwyn Bishop, Liberal MP for Mackellar and Speaker in the House of Representatives

The Sydney Morning Herald 16 May 2014:

The independence of the Speaker has again been compromised after the government was caught directing her to bring applause for Bill Shorten's budget reply speech to an end.

As it happened.....

http://youtu.be/oKCHnIozGTE

How the world found out about it.....

http://youtu.be/B7n-8IUOTkE

The banking and finance sector is still cleaning up after the last mess yet Abbott & Co want to let financial planners off the leash again

The Abbott Government introduced the Corporations Amendment (Streamlining of Future of Financial Advice) Bill 2014 into the Australian Parliament on 19 March 2014 to implement changes to Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) legislation.

This bill winds back consumer protections put in place in 2012 after the 2009 Storm Financial-Commonwealth Bank debacle and resulting court cases revealed significant problems in the finance and banking sector and, winds them back in the face of evidence (such as the media report below) that the sector still hasn’t finished clearing up the mess left by avaricious financial planners.

ABC News 16 May 2014:

The Commonwealth Bank will reopen compensation offers to thousands of its clients affected by its financial planning scandal, after the corporate regulator said it was "extremely disappointed" in the bank's compensation process.

The move follows a joint investigation by Four Corners and Fairfax which exposed how poor financial planning advice at the bank had left some clients almost penniless.

The program revealed that commissions and bonuses helped create a sales-driven culture inside the bank which led to some planners losing millions of their customers funds.

The Commonwealth Bank will now have to dramatically expand its compensation scheme, with 4,000 clients now potentially having their case for compensation reopened. Originally, only 1,100 were offered compensation.

Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) chairman Greg Medcraft said the problem was not with the original compensation arrangements, but with the implementation.

"The compensation process originally developed was carefully designed to include a range of measures to protect the interests of customers involved. ASIC is extremely disappointed that not all of those measures were applied to all customers," he said.

"We are now taking immediate action to remedy the inconsistent treatment."…..

On 20 March 2014, the Senate referred the Corporations Amendment (Streamlining of Future of Financial Advice) Bill 2014 to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee for inquiry and report due on 16 June 2014.

The Senate changes composition on 1 July 2014 and the Abbott Government is likely to vigorously woo those new senators from minor parties in order to get its own way.

The faces of NSW voters Tony Abbott and his cronies can no longer rely on

 March In May images from The Sydney Morning Herald 18 May 2014. 

Photographer Jenny Evans

 March in May image from Twitter. Photographer unknown

ABC News 18 May 2014:

Tens of thousands of people have gathered in cities across Australia to protest against the Federal Government's 2014 budget.

Protesters angered by the announced budget cuts to Government services - including health and education - crowded streets in Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth today, as part of the nationwide March in May rallies.