Tony Abbott's "trouble with the truth" started long ago

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott is well-known for admitting to a very flexible relationship with the truth.

Looking back, it is also possible he even displays a unhealthy capacity for self-delusion.

Here is one political commentator ruminating over aspects of Abbott’s character.

Writing in The Monthly on 16 December 2014 Russell Marks observed:

In The Monthly on 27 May 2014 Marks looked at what Abbott had said and when (about himself, his party and the government he expected to lead) and, here are some of those quotes:

“We are the party of political honesty.”

-ABC TV’s Q&A, 19 March 2009

“The Coalition is against new taxes.”

-Interviewed by Madonna King, 612 ABC Radio, Brisbane, 25 January 2010

REPORTER: “Mr Abbott, how can you be taken seriously when you’re talking about lower taxes but one of your first major policies was paid parental leave to be funded by tax on business?”

TONY ABBOTT: “Well, it’s a temporary – what I hope will be a temporary levy on a very small number of businesses. It’s very important, as the Howard government acknowledged, sometimes when your fiscal circumstances are tight, to do what is absolutely necessary there may have to be levies or charges. This is not something that I take any pleasure in.”

-Doorstop interview, Sydney, 30 March 2010

“The Coalition is allergic to new taxes.”

-Interviewed by Michael Bailey, Radio 4RO, Rockhampton, 18 May 2010  

“We have well and truly learnt our lesson. The last thing we want to do is expose ourselves to the wrath of the Howard battlers.”

-ABC TV’s Q&A, 5 April 2010

“What you'll get under us are tax cuts without new taxes.”

-Doorstop interview with Greg Hunt, Pure Solar, 14 March 2012

“All of the commitments that we make will be designed to promote the national interest, not to try to curry favours with any particular group.”

–Joint doorstop interview with Nigel McKenna, Adelaide Ice, Regency Park, Adelaide, 26 April 2013

“The carbon tax will go, but no-one personal tax will go up and no-one's fortnightly pension or benefit will go down.”

-Budget reply speech, House of Representatives, Parliament House, 16 May 2013

“The great thing about the Coalition is you know exactly what you will get from the Coalition.”

-Interviewed by Chris Uhlmann, ABC TV’s 7.30, 8 July 2013

“We will be a consultative, collegial government. No surprises. No excuses.”

-Interviewed by Chris Uhlmann, ABC TV’s 7.30, 8 July 2013

“I can promise that no school would be worse off under the Coalition.”

–Joint doorstop interview with Russell Matheson, Camden, NSW, 15 July 2013

“I won’t be doing deals with independents and minor parties.”

-Press conference, Parliament House, Canberra, 4 August 2013   

“In order to ensure [education] funding certainty, we will honour the deals that the government has so far made and we will match the offers that the government has so far made in terms of funding.”

–Interviewed by Sabra Lane, ABC Radio’s AM, 5 August 2013

REPORTER: “All your promises that you're announcing during this election campaign, they will be implemented in full. That is a rock solid commitment?”

TONY ABBOTT: “I will do what I say we will do. I want to be known as someone who under-promises and over-delivers.”

–Joint press conference, Colo Heights, NSW, 13 August 2013

REPORTER: “The condition of the budget will not be an excuse for breaking promises?”

TONY ABBOTT: “Exactly right. We will keep the commitments that we make. All of the commitments that we make will be commitments that are carefully costed.”

–Joint press conference, Colo Heights, NSW, 13 August 2013

“I want to be known as a prime minister who keeps commitments.”

-Joint press conference, Colo Heights, NSW, 13 August 2013

“I’ve seen the disaster that this government has done for itself by saying one thing and doing another, Jon. I don’t want to be like that. I really don’t. If we do win the election and we immediately say, oh, we got it all wrong, we've now got to do all these different things, we will instantly be just as bad as the current government has been and I just refuse to be like that… Before polling day you’ll know exactly what we’re going to spend, exactly what we’re going to save, and exactly how much better the budget bottom line will be under the Coalition.”

-Interviewed by Jon Faine, ABC Radio 774, Melbourne, 30 August 2013

“No cuts to education, no cuts to health, no change to pensions, no change to the GST and no cuts to the ABC or SBS.”

-on SBS TV on election eve, 6 September 2013

“In a week or so the governor-general will swear in a new government. A government that says what it means, and means what it says. A government of no surprises and no excuses.”

-Election night victory speech, 7 September 2013

 During his election night victory speech in September 2013, Tony Abbott made the following commitments:

“I now look forward to forming a government that is competent, that is trustworthy and which purposefully and steadfastly and methodically sets about delivering on our commitments to you, the Australian people.”

“In a week or so the governor-general will swear in a new government. A government that says what it means, and means what it says. A government of no surprises and no excuses. A government that understands the limits of power as well as its potential. And a government that accepts that it will be judged more by its deeds than by its mere words.”

“I give you all this assurance – we will not let you down. A good government is one that governs for all Australians, including those who haven’t voted for it. A good government is one with a duty to help everyone to maximise his or her potential, indigenous people, people with disabilities, and our forgotten families, as well as those who Menzies described as ‘lifters, not leaners’. We will not leave anyone behind.”

–Election night victory speech, Sydney, 7 September 2013

It is hardly surprising that in 2015 Abbott has an entrenched reputation for political dishonesty and failure to keep election promises.

And we wonder how Tony Abbott gets away with it?

For those among us still wondering how Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott manages to convince Coalition backbenchers to toe the line with regard to his punitive policies, here is the answer – by and large they are stupid.

Take Kevin Hogan the Nationals MP for a large federal electorate on the NSW North Coast, who on the morning of 15 January 2015 was quoted in The Daily Examiner:

Member for Page Kevin Hogan said the policy would not affect Clarence Valley residents because, in the majority of cases, doctors in the region saw patients for over 10 minutes.

"I don't support the city-based corporate six-minute medicine model of healthcare where doctors churn through 10 patients every hour as a policy," Mr Hogan said.

The policy to reduce the Medicare refund by $20.10 for GP visits under 10 minutes duration would not affect Clarence Valley residents?

The estimated resident population of the Clarence Valley is in excess of 51,000 persons.

Research done at the Family Medicine Research Centre in conjunction with the Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney reviewed data from BEACH (a continuous national study of GP activity) and reported in June 2014 that between 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 only 10% of GP visits were timed as 6 minutes or less while a total of 12% were less than 10 minutes duration1.

So if every person visited the doctor only once a year it is likely that an estimated 6,120 visits to local doctors in the Clarence Valley would have been short consultations – leaving non-concessional patient(s) around $33-$38 out-of-pocket on each of these visits.

Across the entire Page electorate those GP consultations affected would have numbered over 15,994. More if one considers that Australians go to the doctor on average between 3.73 to 3.78 times a year and in NSW the figure is probably slightly higher.

Even leaving aside concessional patients within those 15,994 plus visits, that’s possibly in excess of $200,000 extra per annum that people in the electorate would have been paying from 19 January 2015 - before national outrage forced a government backdown on 15 January.

This backdown didn’t include the planned $5 across the board Medicare rebate cut for all visits to the local doctor from 1 July 2015.

This measure will see in excess of $765,000 come out of combined local pockets each year for GP visits within the Page electorate. Across the Northern Rivers region it will total an est $4.7 million per annum.

The Member for Page is clearly wrong in his assumptions.

Of course the Clarence Valley is affected by the Abbott Government’s attempts to dismantle Medicare and the health care universal safety net. His entire electorate will suffer.

Given the the last national census revealed that the Clarence Valley continues to have a higher proportion of households with incomes below $600 per week (33.8%) than New South Wales (21.7%) or Australia (21.1%) it is possible that this area will be affected more than most.

Kevin Hogan has obviously taken the Prime Minister’s word as gospel and not bothered to do any independent research himself, which given the prime minister’s track record, makes the Member for Page a very stupid politician.

1. Australia-wide in 2013-14 only 8 doctors referred to the Professional Services Review by the Department of Human Services (DHS) were the subject of "inappropriate practice" findings. In that financial year no referrals to DHS for suspected fraud were recorded.

That not-so-stellar progress of the Australian gas industry

The Australian 14 January 2015:

PLUNGING  prices for liquid natural gas are dashing state and federal expectations of a revenue bonanza from the country’s massive new gas projects, with at least $2 billion being stripped from tax and royalty forecasts.

The seven giant projects being built at a combined cost of about $200bn represent the largest capital investments made in ­Australia and are still expected to be financially viable.

But as prices tumble, the ­industry’s export revenue could be as much as $20bn a year lower than was expected a year ago.

The mid-year budget update released just before Christmas had factored in the oil price falling by a third, with the drop feeding through to LNG prices. The fall has surpassed 50 per cent.….

From a sovereign risk perspective, it is essential that these projects continue to be able to service the foreign debts that have largely financed their construction. Industry analysts believe the projects will still be able to cover their operating and financing costs at current prices, but they believe they would not have been built if current ­prices had prevailed when they came before boards for approval.

“If you knew then what you know now, some may not have proceeded because the rate of ­return on our estimates are below what we think is needed to justify going ahead, but when you’re half-way through the construction, you’re also half-way through the money and there’s no going back,” UBS energy analyst Nik Burns said.

The recent round of state and federal budget updates downgraded estimates of royalty and resource tax revenue from the gas industry, to reflect the weaker price outlook, but prices have fallen a lot further since budgets were ruled off before Christmas…..

For the very junior cowboys in the coal seam gas section of the industry this is not good news.

Some, like Metgasco Limited, are already facing strong headwinds and share price continues to reflect this.

Three month chart ordinary shares sold on the Australian Stock Market (ASX)

Twelve month chart ordinary shares sold on the Australian Stock Market (ASX)

Ten year monthly average ordinary shares sold on the Australian Stock Market (ASX)

Is this the road Tony Abbott is taking to make the poor pay more for food and other essentials?

The Drum 11 January 2015:

It appears Tony Abbott will try to expand the GST by replicating the campaign blueprint used by John Howard to introduce the tax in the first place. But what worked then might not work now, writes Paula Matthewson.

More than a decade after the Howard Government introduced a goods and services tax, political pundits remain divided over whether the accompanying GST campaign was effective.

Some point to Howard's re-election after proposing the new tax as proof of the campaign's success, while others claim Howard almost lost because of it.

Despite the lack of consensus it appears the Abbott Government is using the same campaign blueprint, this time in an attempt to create public acceptance for increasing or broadening the GST.

Back then, Howard was saddled with an earlier promise to "never, ever" introduce a GST but was being pressured to introduce one. According to one account, senior members of the business community were openly questioning Howard's economic reform credentials, while the press gallery were asking why he wouldn't lead (or at least follow).

So the then PM created a situation where journalists and economists, business and welfare organisations and even voters called for him to "reverse" the never-ever promise for the good of the nation. Howard did this by focusing the numerous fragmented commentaries into one national discussion: one that centred on Australia's "broken" tax system and how it could be "fixed" by scrapping a bunch of inefficient taxes and replacing them with just one.

The mechanism Howard used to focus the conversation was a taxation taskforce (incidentally chaired by Treasury official and former Keating adviser, Ken Henry). It was established to prepare options for tax reform, and recommended that a consumption tax be part of the mix.

A year later, following much public discussion, the Howard government presented voters not only with a proposed GST but an entire package of tax reforms. The package included personal income tax cuts, increases in the tax-free threshold and pensions, and the scrapping of wholesale sales tax. Nine other taxes imposed at the state and territory level were also slated for elimination. Most importantly, all the money raised by the GST was to be provided to the states and territories, supposedly ending their dependence on the federal government's largesse.

Howard then blitzed voters with a controversial advertising campaign before immediately plunging the nation into a moderately early federal election, which he either cleverly won, or foolishly almost lost, depending on whose analysis one finds more convincing.

PM Abbott is clearly banking on the campaign having been a success for Howard, because his "increase the GST" campaign looks eerily familiar.

A bevy of Treasury boffins is currently developing a tax reform paper, while the general public's awareness is slowly being raised through discussion in the media about the need to broaden or increase the GST.

Comments such as those made last week by government backbenchers and ministers serve to kick along the public discussion while keeping the PM's hands clean of the debate until the Treasury report is released later this year…..

How Julia Gillard's experience inspires or discourages women to enter politics

How Gillard’s experience inspires or discourages women to enter politics

  

Does being reminded of the sexism that Julia Gillard faced as Australia’s first female prime minister challenge women to enter politics or discourage them?

“We found a polarising effect with women responding in different ways depending on their attitudes to gender roles,” said Dr Christopher Hunt, lead author of the research from the University of Sydney’s School of Psychology.

Hunt, together with the School’s Dr Karen Gonsalkorale and Dr Lisa Zadro published their findings in the European Journal of Social Psychology, last month.

“For women who hold traditional gender values - those who think that women should be modest, place their families before themselves and put a lot of importance in taking care of their home and their physical appearance - being reminded of Julia Gillard’s experiences made them want to avoid politics,” Dr Hunt said.

“However for women who rate themselves as non-conformists in regards to gender values, being reminded of Gillard’s difficulties motivated them to go into politics - she appears to be a role model for this group.”

These effects were not related to any changes in women’s belief in their ability to lead. 

“So the changes seem to be driven by thinking about how others will react to them – about the possibility of a backlash,” Dr Hunt said.

“International research shows that women in countries with more women politicians display greater interest in politics than women from countries with lower female representation. Our research suggests such role model influence changes according to women’s other beliefs and values.”

The study assessed 167 Australian undergraduate students on a measure of conformity to gender norms. They then either read statements about generic difficulties experienced by leaders or the gender-based difficulties experienced by Gillard before completing a questionnaire on their attitudes to leadership and certain occupations.

For male participants, those with high conformity to masculine norms showed a greater belief in their own leadership capabilities after reading about Gillard’s gender-based difficulties than when reading about generic difficulties, while low conforming men showed the opposite pattern.

“This suggests that Gillard’s example provoked a defensive reporting of leadership capability  -  consistent with research showing that women who succeed in traditionally male domains are often perceived to be threatening,” said Dr Hunt.

The next step in continuing this work is to see if these findings were specific to politics or whether the same findings would apply to other professions.

“It would be interesting to apply this research to the business community where research has suggested gender roles are even more strictly enforced than in politics.”

Tony Abbott's waving a daughter in front of voters - have his poll numbers dropped again?

Because no media opportunity generated by or with the co-operation of Tony Abbott's family is spontaneous and unscripted, this snippet below is an obvious attempt to get him in the media without overt mention of politics during the Queensland state election period and perhaps boost his flagging opinion poll numbers.

The Daily Mail 11 January 2015:

She relocated from Sydney to Melbourne a year ago and on Saturday, Frances Abbott got to enjoy a Melbourne rite of passage.

Appearing at the Jeep Portsea Polo at Point Nepean National Park in Victoria, she had her boyfriend of one-year Lindsay Smith in tow at the event.

‘It’s my first time [at the Polo]. It’s very nice to be here and experience such a Melbourne tradition,' Frances told Daily Mail Australia at the event…..

Frances spoke candidly about her relationship with her father, Prime Minister Tony Abbott, admitting that just like any daughter she constantly worries about him, and despite living in another city they are always in touch.

‘My standard text message is: “You’re doing an amazing job.”’ And he’ll reply: “Thanks angel,”’ she explained to Daily Mail Australia. 

Adding: ‘I’m always thinking about him, especially with everything that’s happened recently with terrorism.’

While Tony is based in Canberra and Sydney, in between travelling across the world, he still finds time to visit his daughter in Melbourne. 

‘I don’t see him as often as we would like. We try schedule it so we can all catch up,’ Frances mused.

The Whitehouse Institute Of Design graduate credited her mother Margie Abbott to spearheading the family and bringing them all together.

‘Mum holds it all together, she is the one that keeps the family ship afloat. We’re all apart all the time and she pulls us back together.’ 

So how are the opinion poll numbers playing out for the prime minister? His unpopularity continues.

Essential Report 13 January 2015.

53% of respondents disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister – down 2% since the last time this question was asked in December – and 37% approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing (up 5%). This represents a change in net rating from -23 to -16.

83% (up 8%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Tony Abbott’s performance, with 10% (down 5%) disapproving. 81% of Labor voters and 89% of Greens voters disapprove of Tony Abbott’s performance.

By gender men were 40% approve/51% disapprove and women 34% approve/55% disapprove.

35% (up 4% since December) of respondents think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 1%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

37% of men prefer Tony Abbott and 37% prefer Bill Shorten – and women prefer Bill Shorten 38% to 33%.

Morgan Poll 14 January 2015:

Social media users and journalists may find 2015 brings a definite atmospheric chill courtesy of a far-right Tasmanian Government

Not content with passing the Workplaces (Protection From Protesters) Bill 2014 15 of 2014 which only impacts on people who are actually in Tasmania, the Hodgman Coalition Government has turned its eye towards reforming the state’s defamation laws in such a way that bloggers, tweeters, Facebook aficionados and professional journalists all around Australia will be able to be sued by large corporations as a way of ending public scrutiny of these commercial entities.

Mercury News 11 January 2015:

NATIONAL groups representing Australia’s journalists and lawyers have vowed to take on the Tasmanian Government over its controversial new defamation laws.

The proposed laws will make Tasmania the only state in the country to allow companies to sue individuals for defamation to protect businesses from “dishonest campaigns”.

But journalists’ union federal secretary Christopher Warren says the laws will kill freedom of speech and make it impossible for journalists to do their job.

High-profile social media commentators across the country have labelled the laws “a national disgrace”.

Mr Warren said journalists who made corporations accountable for their actions would be the target of those trying to sue.

The laws could also affect anyone commenting on news stories on websites or in letters to the editor, or reporters filing in other states.

“Someone in Broome might write something about a corporation that may not operate in Tasmania but could be subject to being sued in Tasmania,” he said.

“It will have the impact of killing freedom of speech.”

Mr Warren said the Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance would be raising its concerns with Tasmanian Attorney-General Vanessa Goodwin.

Australian Lawyers Alliance spokesman and Mercury columnist Greg Barns said his group was looking into whether the laws would be constitutional.

“It will just get used for SLAPP (strategic lawsuit against public participation) writs on your opponents just to shut them up,” he said.

Dr Goodwin yesterday told the Sunday Tasmanian the laws were not aimed at media organisations.

“While the detail is yet to be finalised, these changes aren’t and won’t be aimed at the media,” Dr Goodwin said.

“They are aimed at groups who deliberately spread misinformation about Tasmanian businesses, costing jobs.”

But Mr Warren, whose union represents various media professionals, said the laws would make Hobart the “defamation capital of Australia” because companies will use the state as the place to launch defamation suits.

Dr Goodwin said the changes would restore laws to Tasmania that existed before 2006.

Uniform national laws were enacted in 2006, in part to stop individuals from “jurisdiction shopping” and picking the state they felt was going to give them the greatest chance of winning or the greatest reward……