Clarence Valley Local Government Elections Vote Tally: state of play on Monday night, 12 September 2016

CLARENCE VALLEY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA ELECTION RESULTS

The electoral state of play* looked like this at 3:41pm when tally updating ceased for Monday 12 September …….

First 9 candidates in order of first preference votes received:

Richie Williamson (9,223) (4,966), Andrew Baker (3,075) (2,914), Karen Toms (1,252) (2,307), Debrah Novak (2,045), Jim Simmons (1,668) (1,980), Jason Kingsley (2,145) (1,970), Peter Ellem (1,965), Greg Clancy (1,275) (1,649), Brett Tibbett (1,275).

Second 9 candidates in order of first preference votes received:

Arthur Lysault (1,121), Margaret McKenna (1,224) (1,074), John Hagger (1,072), Sue Hughes (1,764) (997), Trevor Ellem (962), Peta Rogers (948), Ian Saunders (925),  Joy De Roos (478), John Riggall (461).

Final three candidates in order of first preference votes received:

Marty Wells (295), Ursula Tunks (540) (289), Keith Bates (158).

* First preference votes in 2012 Clarence Valley LGA election marked in red and first preference votes in 2016 LGA election in black.

NSW ELECTORAL COMMISSION VIRTUAL TALLY ROOM

Summary of Candidate First Preference Votes

3:41pm 12 September 2016

There are 9 Councillors to be elected from 21 candidates

Total Number of Electors enrolled in this Council area on 1 August 2016: 39,070

Percentage of all enrolled voters counted: 81.01%

Data Entry commenced: 8:32am

Progressive Quota: 2,986

Informal Rate: 5.69%

Summary of First Preference Votes
Candidate	Party/IND		FP Votes	Quota Ratio	% Formal Vote Votes
NOVAK Debrah	IND		2,045	0.68	6.85%
SAUNDERS Ian	IND		925	0.31	3.10%
CLANCY Greg	GRN		1,649	0.55	5.52%
ROGERS Peta	IND		948	0.32	3.18%
TIBBETT Brett	IND		1,275	0.43	4.27%
TOMS Karen	IND		2,307	0.77	7.73%
TUNKS Ursula	IND		289	0.1	0.97%
KINGSLEY Jason	IND		1,970	0.66	6.60%
HAGGER John	IND		1,072	0.36	3.59%
ELLEM Peter	IND		1,965	0.66	6.58%
WILLIAMSON Richie			4,966	1.66	16.64%
WELLS Marty	IND		295	0.1	0.99%
ELLEM Trevor	IND		962	0.32	3.22%
DE ROOS Joy			478	0.16	1.60%
BATES Keith			159	0.05	0.53%
HUGHES Sue	IND		997	0.33	3.34%
SIMMONS Jim	IND		1,980	0.66	6.63%
RIGGALL John	IND		461	0.15	1.54%
LYSAUGHT Arthur	IND		1,121	0.38	3.76%
McKENNA Margaret	IND		1,074	0.36	3.60%
BAKER Andrew	IND		2,914	0.98	9.76%
Total Formal Votes Counted			29,852		100%
Total Informal/Other Votes			1,800		5.69%
Progressive Total Votes			31,652

All second preference onwards distribution and any outstanding postal votes should be included in the final ballot tally by Thursday night, 15 September and the election results declared by 16 September 2016. 

Not for the first time the insurance industry sounds alarm over climate change impacts

COASTAL RISK AUSTRALIA 2100: Clarence River NSW,

 expected Highest Tide Flooding in 2100 at +0.54m.
High Tide flood extent (dark blue) and medium sea level rise scenario for 2100 (light blue)

Common Dreams, 29 August 2016:

Warning that climate change amounts to the "mother of all risks," three of the world's biggest insurance companies this week are demanding that G20 countries stop bankrolling the fossil fuels industry.

Multi-national insurance giants Aviva, Aegon, and Amlin, which together manage $1.2tn in assets, released a statement Tuesday calling on the leaders of the world's biggest economies to commit to ending coal, oil, and gas subsidies within four years.

"Climate change in particular represents the mother of all risks—to business and to society as a whole. And that risk is magnified by the way in which fossil fuel subsidies distort the energy market," said Aviva CEO Mark Wilson. "These subsidies are simply unsustainable."

According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), fossil fuel companies receive an estimated $5.3tn a year in global subsidies—a figure that included, as the IMF put it, the "real costs" associated with damage to the environment and human health that are foisted on populations but not paid by polluters.

Tuesday's declaration is being issued as leaders prepare to convene for the 11th G20 summit, which is being held in Hangzhou, China on September 4-5 under the theme: "Toward an Innovative, Invigorated, Interconnected, and Inclusive World Economy."

"We're calling on governments to kick away these carbon crutches, reveal the true impact to society of fossil fuels and take into account the price we will pay in the future for relying on them," Wilson added.

Indeed, insurance companies are increasingly shouldering many of the costs associated with a warming planet, whether it be from extreme weather damage or reimbursing farmers for lost crops.

In the first half of 2016 alone, natural catastrophes have caused $70bn in losses, of which $27bn was insured, according to an assessment by insurance and reinsurance company Munich RE—with events of particular note being climate-related "storms in the U.S. and Europe, massive forest fires in Canada, and the complete absence of typhoons in the northwestern Pacific."

And housing data firm Zillow recently published an analysis which found that as many as 1.9 million homes across the country could be underwater by 2100 if the seas rise as much as climate scientists predict, amounting to property losses in the hundreds of billions of dollars……

West Yamba: Expected Highest Tide Flooding in 2100 at +0.74m. Image courtesy of John Edwards.
High Tide flood extent (dark blue) and high sea level rise scenario for 2100 (light blue)

Clarence Valley Local Government Elections Vote Tally: state of play at 10.30pm 11 September 2016

The 10 September 2016 Clarence Valley Local Government  Election is commencing its third day of ballot counting and one thing is quite clear – a significant number of voters have withdrawn first preference support for five of the eight incumbent councillors seeking re-election.

Although it should be noted that one incumbent having been elected unopposed at a 2015 by-election has no 2012 voting figure with which to make a comparison. Indeed, based on his 2016 vote tally so far, it is doubtful if in a contested by-election he would have won at all.

The most striking first preference vote losses are those of the incumbent mayor, Richie Williamson, who sees his 2016 first preference vote tally to date only reach 53.35% of his 2012 tally - an almost 47% reduction - and incumbent councillor Sue Hughes whose current first preference vote only reaches 55.61% of her 2012 tally.

Only two incumbent councillors, Karen Toms and Jim Simmons, have increased their first preference vote tally so far.

So while it appears that between five and six incumbent councillors will be returned for the next four years, most will have to lift their game if they are to win back an increasingly disenchanted electorate.

At this stage it also seems that between three and four candidates will become Clarence Valley councillors for a first time, with all having strong connections within community.

The electoral state of play* at 12.15am on Monday 12 September looks like this…….

First 9 candidates in order of first preference votes received:

Richie Williamson (9,223) (4,921), Andrew Baker (3,075) (2,888), Karen Toms (1,252) (2,294), Debrah Novak (2,023), Jim Simmons (1,668) (1,971), Peter Ellem (1,946), Jason Kingsley (2,145) (1,954), Greg Clancy (1,275) (1,622), Brett Tibbett (1,250).

Second 9 candidates in order of first preference votes received:

Arthur Lysault (1,115), Margaret McKenna (1,224) (1,066), John Hagger (1,062), Sue Hughes (1,764) (981), Trevor Ellem (954), Peta Rogers (937), Ian Saunders (916),  Joy De Roos (473), John Riggall (458).

Final three candidates in order of first preference votes received:

Marty Wells (290), Ursula Tunks (540) (285), Keith Bates (156).

* First preference votes in 2012 Clarence Valley LGA election marked in red and first preference votes in 2016 LGA election in black.

NSW ELECTORAL COMMISSION VIRTUAL TALLY ROOM

Summary of Candidate First Preference Votes

2.25pm 11 September 2016

There are 9 Councillors to be elected from 21 candidates

Total Number of Electors enrolled in this Council area on 1 August 2016: 39,070

Percentage of all enrolled voters counted: 80.24%

Progressive Quota: 2,957

Informal Rate: 5.72%

Batching commenced: 2:06pm

Summary of First Preference Votes
Candidate	Party/IND	FP Votes		Quota Ratio	% Formal Votes
NOVAK Debrah	IND	2,023		0.68	6.84%
SAUNDERS Ian	IND	916		0.31	3.10%
CLANCY Greg	GRN	1,622		0.55	5.49%
ROGERS Peta	IND	937		0.32	3.17%
TIBBETT Brett	IND	1,250		0.42	4.23%
TOMS Karen	IND	2,294		0.78	7.76%
TUNKS Ursula	IND	285		0.1	0.96%
KINGSLEY Jason	IND	1,954		0.66	6.61%
HAGGER John	IND	1,062		0.36	3.59%
ELLEM Peter	IND	1,946		0.66	6.58%
WILLIAMSON Richie		4,921		1.66	16.65%
WELLS Marty	IND	290		0.1	0.98%
ELLEM Trevor	IND	954		0.32	3.23%
DE ROOS Joy		473		0.16	1.60%
BATES Keith		156		0.05	0.53%
HUGHES Sue	IND	981		0.33	3.32%
SIMMONS Jim	IND	1,971		0.67	6.67%
RIGGALL John	IND	458		0.15	1.55%
LYSAUGHT Arthur	IND	1,115		0.38	3.77%
McKENNA Margaret	IND	1,066		0.36	3.61%
BAKER Andrew	IND	2,888		0.98	9.77%
Total Formal Votes Counted		29,562			100%
Total Informal/Other Votes		1,792			5.72%
Progressive Total Votes		31,354

All preference distributions and any outstanding postal votes should be included in the final ballot tally by Thursday night, 15 September and the election results declared by 16 September 2016.