NATIONAL ACCOUNTS DECEMBER 2022: with almost 9 years of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government mismanagement to reverse there is good news and not so news in the numbers

 

 Australian Bureau of Statistics, 12 things to know about the Australian economy right now, 7 December 2022:

Source

Australian National Accounts: 

National Income, Expenditure and Product, September 2022

The Australian Economy - September quarter 2022

1. Our economy grew 0.6 per cent during the September quarter 2022, and 5.9 per cent compared to last year. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of growth since the COVID-19 Delta variant lockdowns. Household consumption drove the increase, growing 1.1 per cent.
2. We spent more and saved less. The household saving rate continued to fall reaching pre-pandemic levels. Households saved 6.9 per cent of their income during the quarter, compared to 6.8 per cent in the December quarter 2019.
3. Consumer prices rose 1.8 per cent during the September quarter 2022 and 7.3 per cent compared to last year. This was the fastest annual increase since 1990. The major drivers of consumer price increases during the quarter were in housing, gas and furniture.
4. Wage growth continued to trail inflation but showed signs of strengthening in response to tight labour market conditions. The unemployment rate for the month of September was 3.5 per cent. Compensation of employees rose 3.2 per cent, which was the highest quarterly rise since December quarter 2006. The private sector wage price index rose 1.2 per cent in the September quarter 2022, the highest rate of growth since September quarter 2010. Compared to a year ago, private sector wages rose 3.4 per cent, the highest annual rate of growth since December quarter 2012.
5. We continued re-engaging with the world. In the first full quarter of relaxed international travel restrictions, spending on overseas trips grew 58 per cent. International travel reached 56 per cent of pre-pandemic levels as holidays returned to our lives.
6. Airlines soared. With pent-up demand, activity in the air transport industry rose 25.2 per cent. The construction industry was strong on the back of major engineering and infrastructure projects, and rose 2.3 per cent. Coal mining activity has fallen for four quarters in a row.
7. Domestic mobility increased. Household purchases of transport services rose 13.9 per cent, reaching 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels. We purchased more cars as supply bottlenecks began to ease and imports rose. Catering and accommodation services also grew by a strong 5.5 per cent with increased tourism and mobility.
8. Our exports rode on the sheep’s back. While wet weather hampered exports of coal, rural exports surged 9.8 per cent, led by wool and cotton. Imports of communications equipment rose 5.7 per cent as new mobile phone models became available.
9. Exports were supercharged by lithium. Our lithium concentrates exports reached a value of $3.4 billion this quarter and was up six-fold through the year. Lithium has surged into Australia’s top 10 export commodities.
10. Private business investment rose 2.5 per cent led by an increase in infrastructure building. Home-building activity rose 3.4 per cent following an uptick in building approvals, a moderation of labour and material shortages, and an improvement in weather conditions. Government construction fell as quarantine facilities in Queensland and Western Australia were completed.
11. Profits of financial corporations rose 4.9 per cent during the quarter. Rises in the cash rate during the quarter saw lenders tending to pass on rate increases on loans more quickly than on deposits. This was the fastest growth in financial profits since September quarter 2008.
12. The current account returned to deficit for the first time since March quarter 2019 as corporate profits went overseas. Mining profits fell 7.1 per cent during the quarter due to weaker commodity prices.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It should be noted that since the aforementioned data was compiled the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cash target rate three times - to 2.60% in October, 2.85% in November and 3.10% in December 2022.  Resulting in the September wage price index rise for the private (1.2%) and public (0.6%) sectors falling further below cost of living increases which stood at a rise of 7.3% over the 12 months to September Quarter 2022.

According to the ABS, in 2022 annual CPI inflation reached its highest level in 20 years.

The Monthly Cost Price Index (CPI) for September showed that the most significant price rises were Housing (+10.3%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+9.6%) and Transport (+6.8%).

While the monthly CPI indicator rose 6.9% in the twelve months to October 2022, with the most significant price rises occurring in Housing (+10.5%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+8.9%) and Transport (+7.4%). New dwelling prices appear to be driving the increase in housing costs.

BACKGROUND

In Australia in April 2022 cash rate target/market interest rate was 0.1% - a percentage point it had been held at by the Reserve Bank since November 2020.

In May 2022 the rate rose to 0.35%; in June to 0.85%; in July to 1.35%, in August to 1.85%; in September to 2.35%; in October to 2.60%; in November to 2.85%; and finally, in December to 3.10%.

The headline inflation rate by October 2022 was est. 6.9%.

Sometime in January-March 2023 cash rate target/market interest rate is predicted to be at 3.60% & perhaps even 3.85% by May 2023.

In 2022 the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1 per cent in the March 2022 quarter; rose 1.8 per cent in the June 2022 quarter and rose 1.8 per cent again in the September 2022 quarter.

On Wednesday 14 December 2022 the Liberal MP for Cook and former Prime Minister, former minister for Immigration and Border Protection, Social Services, Treasury, Public Service, Health, Finance, Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Home Affairs & Treasury. Scott Morrison, finally has to give evidence under oath at the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme

 

Former prime minister Scott Morrison with fellow Opposition MPs after a censure motion was moved against him in parliament, Wednesday, November 30, 2022. © Lukas Coch / AAP Images, in The Monthly, 30.11.22 

On Wednesday 14 December 2022 the Liberal MP for Cook, Scott John Morrison, as former prime minister (Aug 2018-May 2022), former treasurer (Sept 2015-Aug 2018, May 2021-May 2022) and former minister for social services (Dec 2014-Sept 2015) will give sworn evidence before the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme.

He is the only witness called before the Royal Commission on that day, in a week which will see a total of fourteen witnesses called to give evidence.

Although, Morrison avoided giving evidence in person during the Inquiry into the Appointment of the Former Prime Minister to Administer Multiple Departments, preferring instead to put his case and parry the Inquiry’s questions through his legal team, that opportunity was not open to him in this instance.

To avoid disappointment, anyone watching a live broadcast of the Member for Cook giving evidence next Wednesday — or reading whatever statements he makes afterward — should not anticipate any expressions of genuine regret for his policies, words, or actions taken over the course of creating and implementing the Centrelink automated debt creation and recovery process which was in operation between 2015 and 2019.

BACKGROUND

Report of the Inquiry into the Appointment of the Former Prime Minister to Administer Multiple Departments, Executive Summary, 25 November 2022, excerpts:

17. Mr Morrison does not appear to have attached any significance to the fact that, from the time of its making, each appointment operated in law to charge him with responsibility for the administration of the whole department. There was no delineation of responsibilities between Mr Morrison and the other minister or ministers appointed to administer the department. In the absence of such delineation, there was a risk of conflict had Mr Morrison decided to exercise a statutory power inconsistently with the exercise of the power by another minister administering the department. The 2021 appointments were not taken with a view to Mr Morrison having any active part in the administration of the department but rather to give Mr Morrison the capacity to exercise particular statutory power should the minister charged with responsibility for the exercise of that power propose to do so in a manner with which Mr Morrison disagreed, or fail to make a decision that Mr Morrison wanted to be made. In terms of the functioning of the departments this was as Dr Gordon de Brouwer PSM, Secretary for Public Sector Reform, observes “extremely irregular”……

19. Given that the Parliament was not informed of any of the appointments, it was unable to hold Mr Morrison to account in his capacity as minister administering any of these five departments. As the Solicitor-General concluded, the principles of responsible government were “fundamentally undermined” because Mr Morrison was not “responsible” to the Parliament, and through the Parliament to the electors, for the departments he was appointed to administer.

[my yellow highlighting]

20. Finally, the lack of disclosure of the appointments to the public was apt to undermine public confidence in government. Once the appointments became known, the secrecy with which they had been surrounded was corrosive of trust in government.

The Saturday Paper, Editorial, 3 December 2022:

Like a veteran troubadour, Scott Morrison rose from the backbench on Wednesday and delivered all the old hits: indignation, self-pity and sly evasions. The moment – parliamentary debate of his historic censure for secretly swearing himself into several portfolios as prime minister – demanded new notes, of course, namely songs of contrition. But Australians were kidding themselves if they thought they’d hear them.

Last week, former High Court justice Virginia Bell wrote that Morrison’s weird and secretive acquisitions were “corrosive of trust in government” and found that he had attempted to swear himself into a sixth ministry, Environment. Bell found that the secret assumption of powers was not illegal but gravely unorthodox and concerning, and wrote – despite Morrison’s previous justifications – that three of the five appointments he made for himself had little or nothing to do with the pandemic. She also wrote: “Being appointed to administer multiple departments seems an exorbitant means of addressing Mr Morrison’s concern about his ministers’ exercise of statutory power in cases that were not subject to Cabinet oversight”.

Despite the solicitor-general arriving at a similar conclusion, and the disgust of his own colleagues when they learnt, sometimes through the media, that he had secretly appointed himself to their portfolios, Morrison spoke with characteristic defiance. He told parliament the censure motion was “political intimidation” to which he would bravely refuse to submit, and with an air of brittle righteousness invoked the crisis of the pandemic: you have no right to judge me, he was saying, because you weren’t there in the seat of power during the storm. Incredibly, Morrison also said that had he been asked about his secret manoeuvre – of which his closest colleagues were oblivious – then he would have answered honestly.

With the lone exception of Bridget Archer, the Liberals decided to back their man. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton called the motion “a stunt” – a recurring party line – and their side of the chamber emptied after Morrison’s speech in theatrical protest. As they did, MPs filed past Morrison and shook his hand.

It is confirmation, if we needed it, that Morrison was a dangerously loose unit. He was not, as some in the press gallery once argued, an “extreme pragmatist”. He was paranoid, bullying and profoundly allergic to scrutiny. Prolifically deceptive, he was also thin-skinned and prone to unsavoury fits of rage and self-pity. His contempt for the media is obvious, but that contempt also extended to his own cabinet and basic conventions of democracy. And thus, to the Australian people. [my yellow highlighting]

And so, on Wednesday, parliament successfully passed its motion 86-50. It made Morrison the first prime minister, or former prime minister, to be censured in the house. It was proportionate acknowledgement of a historically deviant act and a suitably ignominious distinction for a man who was grossly unfit for the office he once held.

A brief look at "The 2022 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study"

 

Australian National University-Griffith University, THE 2022 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION: Results from the Australian Election Study, released 5 December 2022, excerpts:

Executive Summary

This report presents findings from the 2022 Australian Election Study (AES). The AES surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,508 voters after the 2022 Australian federal election to find out what shaped their choices in the election. The AES has fielded representative surveys after every federal election since 1987, which allows these results to be placed in a long-term context. This report provides insights into what informed voting behaviour in the election and voters’ attitudes towards policy issues, the political leaders, and the functioning of Australian democracy generally.

The main findings are as follows:

Public policy and the economy

• A majority of voters (53 percent) cast their ballots

based on policy issues, down from 66 percent

in 2019.

• The most important issues in the election identified

by voters included the cost of living (32 percent),

environmental issues (17 percent), management of

the economy (15 percent), and health (14 percent).

• Voters preferred Labor’s policies on the cost of

living, education, health, and the environment.

• Voters preferred the Coalition’s policies on

management of the economy, taxation, and national

security. The Coalition’s advantage in economic

policy areas was significantly reduced since 2019.

• Evaluations of the national economy were worse in

2022 than in any election since 1990. Two thirds of

voters reported that the national economy became

worse over the past year. [my yellow highlighting]

Leaders

• Anthony Albanese was evaluated more favourably

than any political party leader since Kevin Rudd in

2007, scoring 5.3 on a zero to 10 popularity scale.

[my yellow highlighting]

• With Anthony Albanese as party leader, Labor

attracted more votes based on leadership than in

the 2016 and 2019 elections.

• Scott Morrison became the least popular major

party leader in the history of the AES, scoring 3.8

on a zero to 10 popularity scale, down from 5.1 in the

2019 election. [my yellow highlighting]

• Anthony Albanese was evaluated more favourably

than Scott Morrison in eight of nine leader

characteristics, with the biggest differences

in perceptions of honesty, trustworthiness,

and compassion.

The ‘Teal’ independents

• Political partisanship for the major parties reached

record lows in 2022. The proportion of voters that

always vote the same way is also at a record low

(37 percent). This growing detachment from the

major political parties provided the conditions that

supported the Teals’ success.

Most Teal voters were not ‘disaffected Liberals’, but

tactical Labor and Greens voters. Less than one in

five Teal voters previously voted for the Coalition. 

[my yellow highlighting]

• On average, Teal voters are ideologically close to

Labor voters – placing themselves just left of centre

on a zero to 10 left-right scale (Teal mean: 4.4; Labor

mean: 4.3).

Socio-demographic influences on the vote

• Men were more likely to vote for the Coalition than

women (men: 38 percent; women: 32 percent).

Women were more likely than men to vote for Labor

and the Greens. This represents a longer-term

reversal of the gender gap in voter behaviour, since

the 1990s women have shifted to the left and men

to the right in their party preferences.

• Since 2019, the Coalition lost support from both

men and women. [my yellow highlighting]

• There are major generational differences in voter

behaviour. The Coalition has very little support

among Millennials and Generation Z. The Coalition’s

share of the vote fell in almost every age group, but

especially among the youngest cohorts of voters. 

[my yellow highlighting]

• The self-identified working class remain more

likely to vote Labor (38 percent) than the Coalition

(33 percent).

• Since 2019 the Coalition has lost support among

university-educated and higher income voters. 

[my yellow highlighting]

The COVID-19 pandemic

• Overall, Australians evaluated the performance of

the federal government’s handling the pandemic

more negatively than their state government. 

[my yellow highlighting]

Around half (51 percent) thought their state

government handled the pandemic well, compared

to 30 percent who thought the Commonwealth

government handled the pandemic well.

• There are major differences across states – in

Tasmania and Western Australia 75 percent

thought the state government handled the

pandemic well, compared to just 36 percent

in Victoria.

• Among those who thought the federal government

handled the pandemic badly, only 12 percent

voted for the Coalition, while 42 percent voted

Labor and almost one third voted for a minor party

or independent

• A majority of Australians thought the pandemic

had negative impacts on social cohesion or

inclusiveness (64 percent) and individual

rights and freedoms (54 percent). One third of

Australians reported that the pandemic had

negatively affected their personal economic

circumstances. Only a small minority of

Australians believed the pandemic had positive

impacts for Australian society.

Preferred party policies

The major parties have long-term electoral

advantages in different policy areas (see Figure 1.4).

The AES asked voters for the same 11 issues, “whose

policies – the Labor Party’s or the Liberal-National

Coalition’s –would you say come closer to your own

views on each of these issues?” The Coalition holds

an advantage as the preferred party on management

of the economy, national security, and taxation. Labor,

on the other hand, is well ahead as the preferred

party on global warming, the environment, health,

education, and the cost of living. As nearly one-third

of the electorate considered the cost of living to be

the most important issue in the 2022 election, in

principle this benefitted Labor. The management of

the economy benefitted the Coalition.

Although there are fluctuations from election to

election, overall voters’ preferences for one party

over the other on these policy areas have remained

constant over time. Of note in 2022 compared to 2019

is the larger proportion of voters who said there was

‘no difference’ between the parties on salient issues

in the campaign. In 2022 an average of 25 percent

of voters said there was ‘no difference’ between

the parties compared to 19 percent in 2019. Voting

in the 2022 election was clearly less policy-driven

than in recent elections. Another notable shift is that

the Coalition has lost their advantage over Labor on

immigration and refugees, and their advantage on

management of the economy and taxation is much

reduced since 2019. [my yellow highlighting]

Climate change

The 2019-2020 bushfires and the 2021-2022 floods

affected significant proportions of the population

and brought home to voters in the most dramatic way

the effects of climate change. This is reflected in

the significant increase in the proportions of voters

mentioning global warming as the most important

election issue (see Figure 1.5). In 2019 and 2022,

10 percent mentioned global warming as the most

important election issue compared to 4 percent in

2013 and 2016. Mentions of the environment show a

long-term increase, albeit with a slight decline from

11 percent in 2019 to 7 percent in 2022.

While not everyone sees the environment as their

top election concern, there is a broad group who

are concerned about climate change. Nearly half

of all voters see global warming as ‘extremely

important’, with only around one in four seeing it as

‘not very important’ (see Figure 1.6). However, there

are substantial party differences in these views. 

[my yellow highlighting]

Almost six in 10 Labor voters see global warming as

‘extremely important’ compared to less than one in

four Coalition voters. As we would expect, the vast

majority of Greens voters—80 percent—see global

warming as ‘extremely important’. A large majority

of all voters see global warming as being either

‘extremely important’ or ‘quite important’.

The economy

Following the lockdowns related to the pandemic

and the associated decline in economic activity,

the Australian economy recovered in 2021-2022,

with unemployment declining to historic lows and a

significant increase in economic growth. However,

the government was left with major debt because

of the economic subsides put in place to shield

businesses and individuals from the pandemic, and

inflation has jumped to levels not seen in decades.

As a result, voters took a very pessimistic view of the

performance of the national economy in 2022, with

two-thirds saying that it had become worse over the

previous year (Figure 1.7), a figure only surpassed in

1990 during the recession of the early 1990s.

TRENDS IN AUSTRALIAN POLITICAL OPINION: Results from the Australian Election Study 1987– 2022 can be read or downloaded at:

https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/Trends-in-Australian-Political-Opinion-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study-1987-2022.pdf

THE 2022 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION: Results from the Australian Election Study can be read or downloaded at:

https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2022-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf

Australian Koala Foundation: human management rather than koala management may be the best way to save the species from extinction

 

The Koala Kiss project comes to town

Australian Koala Foundation announces first 'Koala Kiss Site': A first-of-its-kind Human Plan of Management will see Koala numbers grow over the next 50 years

__________________________________________________________

Australian Koala Foundation

__________________________________________________________

The nation’s first ‘Koala Kiss Site’, which is part of the larger Koala Kiss Project has been announced by the Australian Koala Foundation (AKF) today, to ensure abundant Koala populations in 50 years.

AKF Chair Deborah Tabart OAM said they had selected the Gwydir Shire in NSW because it contained secure habitat with the ability to have certain points of the landscape connected, creating the first ‘Koala Kiss Site’.

“We see the Gwydir Shire as the perfect pilot project for our long-term vision for the Koalas’ recovery and for the first-of-its-kind Human Plan of Management,” Ms Tabart, also known as the Koala Woman, said.

“There are small discrete populations where Koalas are doing well in this area, and if we reduce the threats there should be healthy Koala populations there in 50 years.”

The Koala Kiss Project aims to link fragmented Koala habitats and identify strategic and/or regrowth opportunities. With the ultimate vision of creating the 'Koala Kamino' - approximately 2,543kms of prime koala habitat from Cairns to Melbourne, that can be created into an uninterrupted conservation corridor by connecting key 'kiss points'.

This is possible with the use of the AKF’s scientific, first-of-its-kind Koala Habitat Atlas, which maps the entire geographic habitat of the Koala across 1.5 million square kilometres.

Rather than a Koala Plan of Management, AKF will demonstrate in the Gwydir Shire how a Human Plan of Management, with Koalas as a flagship can create sustainable communities, despite environmental and human threats.

“We estimate there are less than 1000 Koalas in the Parkes electorate which includes Gunnedah, Inverell, Moree and Gwydir Shire, but, we believe, with careful management their populations can become robust and sustainable into the future. I have seen so many Koala Plans of Management, but what we need is a Human Plan of Management – manage human development and we will have Koalas,” Ms Tabart said.

“It is time for a new way of thinking about Koala conservation and most importantly to not rely on Governments, of all levels, coming and going and changing their laws to allow destruction of Koala habitat.”

“Given 80% of Australia’s Koalas live on private land, it is up to us; those that own that land to become stewards of the biodiversity that is on our properties.”

“It should be simple and I think it could be. That is why the Koala Kiss Project was born. I know it will thrive because it relies on common sense and I truly have faith in us, the people to do the right thing.”

“It is time to write Human Plans of Management that incorporate a holistic approach to each and every landscape with complex and often conflicting priorities.”

The AKF will hold a workshop in Warialda with key stakeholders and community in February 2023 to discuss how a Human Plan of Management can help transform the long-term viability of Koalas in the region.

“This workshop will not just be lamenting the loss of Koalas but inspiring abundance. We can do it if we all work together. We are welcoming everyone from all walks of life to join us at this two-day workshop in Warialda - to think through the complexities and also the excitement of thinking Koalas will be in the Gwydir Shire landscape in 2075,” said Ms Tabart.

“AKF is all about recovery of the species – with the Federal Government officially listing the Koala as Endangered in parts of Australia earlier this year, a Koala Recovery Plan and EPBC Act waiting to be re-written, we’re not sitting idle - it’s clear we must take matters into our own hands and AKF does not need permission from the government to make this vision possible!

“Imagine if we achieve contiguous habitat across the entire stretch of the Koala range, then all creatures great and small could traverse through the bush unthreatened – that is the ultimate goal.”

To find out more about this new vision for the koala visit savethekoala.com/our-work/kiss

The Australian Koala Foundation (AKF) is the principal non-profit, non-government organisation dedicated to the effective management and conservation of the Koala and its habitat.

_________________________________________________