Showing posts with label CPI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CPI. Show all posts

Wednesday 28 August 2024

Same masthead, two different perspectives - but what they both agree on is that Coles & Woolworths are garnering billions in profit from their metropolitan & regional supermarkets






Same masthead, two different perspectives - but what both agree on is that Coles Group Ltd & Woolworths Group Ltd are garnering billions in profit.


The Guardian, 27 August 2024:


Politicians will declare war on ‘cost of living’ and pundits will argue about inflation. The real point is the profits come at workers’ expenses


The latest massive $1.1bn profit reported by Coles will doubtless produce a new round of hand-wringing about the “cost of living”. Governments will produce initiatives aimed at capping or reducing prices. Pundits will use a variety of measures to argue as to whether such measures are inflationary. Then there will be debates about whether splitting up Coles and Woolworths into smaller chains would enhance competition. And the Reserve Bank will be encouraged to pusheven harder to return inflation to its target range.


But these responses, focused on the cost of goods, miss the point. Coles and Woolworths have increased their margins, yes – but prices for groceries have increased broadly in line with other goods. The real driver of supermarket profits is their ability to drive down the prices they pay to suppliers.


But the input that matters here is labour and it is here that the supermarkets are making big gains at the expense of their workers. Across the board, wages have failed to keep pace with prices over the last five years or more.


At least for the supermarkets, this won’t change any time soon......


TheGuardian, 27 August 2024:


Greens accuse company of price-gouging, as supermarket attributes sales boost to seasonal campaigns and rising digital revenue


Coles has posted a surge in revenue from its groceries business and expanded supermarket profit margins to the highest level recorded in the pandemic era, even as shoppers grapple with fast-rising household costs.


The revenue bump underpinned a robust rise in annual profit to $1.1bn. It threatens to draw Australia’s second largest chain back into the public limelight as cost-of-livingpressures become a central political issue for the next federal election.


Coles chief executive, Leah Weckert, said on Tuesday the supermarkets business was enjoying strong momentum, driven by “a lot of Australians choosing to eat out less and eating at home more”.....


Coles $1.1 billion annual profit came off the back of a $10.5 billion gross profit for the 2023-24 financial year.


Woolworths is set to announce its annual financial results today, Wednesday 28 August. Last year at 30 June 2023 it recorded a gross profit of $17.1 billion and a net profit of $1.7 billion.


What I am sure the majority of ordinary households in both metropolitan and rural & regional areas of the country will agree upon, is that putting food on the table, toiletries in the bathroom, detergent in the kitchen & laundry or petrol in the car is an unenviable task these days.

 

Thursday 8 February 2024

Chair of ACTU Inquiry into Price Gouging and Unfair Practices does some plain talking about the relationship between 'intractable inflation' & the misuse of corporate power


Finally. A dark uncomfortable nexus that federal and state governments have tried to ignore, is exposed to the light of day.


INQUIRY INTO PRICE GOUGING AND UNFAIR

PRICING PRACTICES, Final report, February 2024


FOREWORD


I have welcomed the opportunity to chair this inquiry

for three reasons.


Firstly, there has been much discussion about

inflation and its causes including monetary and

fiscal policy, international factors, wages, supply

chain disruption and war. However, there is hardly

any discussion that looks at the actual prices

charged to consumers, the processes by which

they are set, the profit margins and their possible

contribution to inflation.


Secondly, there is also much discussion about

market power and its harms. But there is very little

discussion of any policies or actions that might be

taken to deal with the main harm: high prices.


Unreasonably high prices are not prohibited by

competition law. The ACCC, worthy though it is,

is restricted to looking at unlawful anti-competitive

agreements - for example, when competitors agree

on prices. If two firms, for example, coordinate

their prices without any illegal communication,

that behaviour is outside the scope of the Act. If

governments take actions which have the effect of

raising prices, that is also outside the scope of the

Australian Competition and Consumer Act.


In short, firms are free to charge as much as they

like. They can price gouge lawfully as long as there

is no unlawful collusion. This has given rise to a

policy gap – there is no set of government policies

about excessive prices. This report provides an

opportunity to examine whether this should be the

case at a time when Australians are so concerned

about the cost of living and the impact of prices on

their lives.


Thirdly, I am pleased to be engaged with the ACTU

in a prices inquiry because the concern of the Trade

Union movement is the impact of prices on the

costs of living of ordinary Australians. It has been

valuable to hear from ordinary people in this inquiry

rather than the ‘usual suspects’ that is businesses

and business organisations making economic

submissions about their prices.


Traditionally, the term price gouging has referred

to situations where sellers exploit a shortage of

essential goods and services to raise prices to

excessive levels. However, in the public mind

there is a wider meaning of the term: prices that

significantly exceed levels that would occur if there

was competition. Such prices substantially exceed

costs of supply and a reasonable level of profit.


What we have seen over recent years is a dramatic

increase in costs paid by consumers.


Some of the highest price increases occur in sectors which are characterised by having disproportionate market power, a level of power over their consumers, or a level of monopsony power over their supply chain and workforce.


At the same time as consumers experience significant increases in costs. Across food and grocery, energy, and financial services corporate profits are up.


Normally, inflation is a distributed experience, and the experience of those without market power being both squeezed on the supply and demand side is evidence of that. Some of Australia’s largest businesses, often supplying inelastic goods, are maintaining or even increasing margins in response to the global inflationary  episode.


This is a situation that warrants further investigation.


In particular, it warrants investigation of the state of competition in Australia and of the associated regulatory settings and to learn from the experience of ordinary people as to the impact of these matters.


In short, if there is a high price, it usually pays to investigate its causes – typically a lack of competition or a market shortcoming – and possible remedies.


During this inquiry for example it was observed that electric vehicle prices in New Zealand are considerably lower than in Australia. In probing the reasons, it was found that the difference is due to a little known unwarranted import restriction i Australia that does not apply in New Zealand. This explains why prices on electric vehicles are much higher than they should be.


The inquiry is very timely.


The world is facing an inflationary episode. The goal of central banks and governments across the world is to drive down the rate of inflation to a more sustainable level. While there has been an enormous amount of public discourse on the contribution of wages and employment to inflation, too little discussion has been on the role price setters have on broader inflation outcomes.


The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michelle Bullock, has noted that the inflation Australia is experiencing now is ‘homegrown.’ This declaration makes the examination of price-setting behaviour by domestic firms more important, as we cannot simply say that prices have increased elsewhere and are simply being passed on. The exercise of market power and limits on competition in specific markets have exacerbated what began as a global problem.


This inquiry has conducted 5 public hearings, received over 750 public submissions and more than 20 detailed contributions from academics, experts, think tanks, unions, businesses, and thei representatives.


These diverse perspectives are vital for a comprehensive understanding of the issues. Th public hearings in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Cairns, and Canberra have allowed us to directly engage with the community and hear a wide range of experiences and insights. These voluntary contributions have deeply enriched the inquiry.


As I stated when I agreed to conduct this inquiry, this is a serious examination of prices and competition in Australia.


This report summarises the key policy issues and draws on the submissions to develop a set of recommendations  on price and competition policy which, if adopted, would substantially improve competition and decrease the price pressure faced by ordinary families.


Prof. Allan Fels AO

Chair


The full 80 page report can be read online and downloaded at:

https://pricegouginginquiry.actu.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02InquiryIntoPriceGouging_Report_web.pdf



Excerpt from Pages 5-6 of the report:


BUSINESS PRICING PRACTICES


The report analyses a selection of exploitative business pricing practices that enable the extraction of extra dollars from consumers in a way that would not be possible in markets that are competitive, properly informed and that enable overcharged consumers to readily switch from one supplier to another.


The fact that there is a quite widespread lack of competition in Australian markets means that pricing practices that might be accepted in very competitive markets are unduly exploitative of consumers in that setting.


Loyalty taxes set initial prices low and then sharply increase them in subsequent years when consumers cannot easily detect, question, or renegotiate them and where the ‘transaction costs’ of changing to other competitors are high. Examples come from banking, insurance, energy, and other areas. Loyalty schemes are often low cost means of retaining and exploiting consumers by providing them with low value rewards of dubious benefit. These schemes are also often badly run.


Drip pricing where firms only advertise part of a product’s price and reveal other prices later as the customer goes through the buying process is spreading including in airlines, accommodation, entertainment, pre-paid phone charges, credit cards and others.


Excuse-flation where general inflation provides camouflage for businesses to raise prices without justification is also more prevalent in the current environment. As inflation starts to fall excessive inflationary expectations and future cost increases can be built into prices.


Confusion pricing involves confusing consumers with a myriad of complex price structures and plan making price comparisons difficult and dulling price competition. It occurs more and more in areas such as telecommunications, financial or maintenance services and other fields.


Asymmetric or ‘rockets and feathers’ pricing is of much concern in the current environment especially as inflation is starting to come down. When costs rise prices go up quickly ‘like a rocket’ but when costs fall prices fall slowly ‘like a feather falling to the ground’. This practice of delaying price falls when costs have fallen can be very profitable for businesses. A recent example concerned meat prices when prices paid to farmers for lamb fell but retail prices did not, at least until there was publicity including from this inquiry about the delay.


Algorithmic pricing is the practice of using algorithms to set prices automatically (but taking account of competitor responses) raises issues about whether this reduces price competition and is analogous to cartel pricing.


Price discrimination which in its simplest form involves charging different consumers different prices for the same product enables businesses to set prices according to how much each consumer is willing and able to pay. It takes many forms. It is enabled by a lack of competition. If there were competition charging high prices to customers who wish to or have to pay higher prices would not be possible because competitors would bring those prices down to normal levels. This report identifies a number of examples ranging from banks (better rates from customers likely to leave them), electricity (better prices for business customers than for consumers even allowing for lower costs of supply) and medical specialists which offer vastly different prices for near identical services. Of particular concern is the rise of much greater use of price discrimination enabled by the rise of digital platforms, new technology, detailed customer data and sophisticated profit maximising pricing methodologies.


These practices all result from an economy which is insufficiently competitive and gives room for businesses to engage in exploitative pricing practices.


There is a case for a much more active public policy for investigating and analysing practices that operate at unwarranted cost to customers.



Thursday 9 November 2023

AUSTRALIAN SOCIETY STATE OF PLAY: Interest rates and cost of living - there is no good news in November 2023

Reserve Bank Logo


The Reserve Bank of Australia as one of its monetary policy decision tools employs a cash rate target.


In the Reserve Bank's own words:

The cash rate is the interest rate that banks pay to borrow funds from other banks in the money market overnight. It influences all other interest rates, including mortgage and deposit rates.

In technical terms, it is the interest rate on unsecured overnight loans between banks (loans banks use to manage their liquidity). It is our operational target for the implementation of monetary policy.


The Bank's inflation target is; to keep annual consumer price inflation at between 2 and 3 per cent, on average, over time.


On 7 September 2016 the Australian Reserve Bank cash rate target stood at 1.50% and it remained unchanged for over two year and seven months, until it fell by 25 basis points to 1.25% on 5 June 2019.


The cash rate target continued to fall the next five months until it reached 0.10% on 4 November 2020 and remained unchanged until 4 May 2022 when it rose to 0.35%.


Since then the monthly cash rate target announcements began to tread water on 5 July 2023 at 4.10%.


Sadly, on 8 November 2023 the cash rate target again rose by 25 basis points to 4.35% - the 13th rate hike since May 2022.


The Reserve Bank's next monthly target announcement is due on Tuesday, 5 December 2023.


As for the Reserve Bank's inflation target of keeping consumer price inflation at between 2 and 3 per cent, this target range had been met consistently for the ten and a half years up to December Quarter 2021 and ever since been consistently exceeded. Peaking at 7.8% in December Quarter 2022 before gradually falling to 5.4% in September Quarter 2023 with a monthly indicator of 5.6%.


I suggest that readers do not anticipate any interest rate relief this coming December. Nor expect any significant fall in the Living Cost Index or Consumer Price Index as the country enters 2024.


If The Guardian article on the latest Essential Research poll is correct, it is likely that the more than half of all Australian voters who reportedly are struggling financially will read the following with a jaundiced eye.......



Reserve Bank of Australia, MediaRelease, 7 November 2023:


Statement by Michele Bullock, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision Number 2023-30

Date 7 November 2023


At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent. It also increased the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 4.25 per cent.


Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago. The latest reading on CPI inflation indicates that while goods price inflation has eased further, the prices of many services are continuing to rise briskly. While the central forecast is for CPI inflation to continue to decline, progress looks to be slower than earlier expected. CPI inflation is now expected to be around 3½ per cent by the end of 2024 and at the top of the target range of 2 to 3 per cent by the end of 2025. The Board judged an increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.


The Board had held interest rates steady since June following an increase of 4 percentage points since May last year. It had judged that higher interest rates were working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy. Furthermore, it had noted that the impact of the more recent rate rises would continue to flow through the economy. It had therefore decided that it was appropriate to hold rates steady to provide time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates so far. In particular, the Board had indicated that it would be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.


Since its August meeting, the Board has received updated information on inflation, the labour market, economic activity and the revised set of forecasts. The weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased. While the economy is experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it has been stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market have eased but they remain tight. Housing prices are continuing to rise across the country.


At the same time, high inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Given that the economy is forecast to grow below trend, employment is expected to grow slower than the labour force and the unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually to around 4¼ per cent. This is a more moderate increase than previously forecast. Wages growth has picked up over the past year but is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up.


Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.


There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. Services price inflation has been surprisingly persistent overseas and the same could occur in Australia. There are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income. And globally, there remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad.


Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.


Sunday 10 September 2023

Sometimes {sarcastic} humour is the only defence left in an increasingly inhospitable world

 


Some social media posts use humour to criticise the supermarkets' prices.(Instagram: Grassroots Action Network Tasmania). ABC News, 8 September 2023


via @ChrisHeHim1





On 30 August 2023 the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator for July 2023 showing the monthly CPI indicator rose 4.9% in the twelve months to July, with the most significant price rises being Housing (+7.3%) and Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.6%) - supposedly offset by a fall in Automotive fuel (-7.6%). Rent was listed as rising by +7.6% and electricity rose by +15.7%. While the Insurance and financial services category was recorded at +8.5%.

It is getting harder and harder for those on low fixed incomes to afford a range of healthy fresh food, better quality dried/processed food, milk, tea, coffee, juice, condiments or even enough bread for a fortnight. Right now it feels like a visit to Coles or Woolworths costs three times as much for half the number of items.


As for medications - by the time one is standing at the pharmacy checkout prices are becoming prohibitive - over $61 for around 28 days supply of just six of the eight medications required on a daily basis is not unusual.

When it comes to those unexpected out-of-pocket expenses involving GP or medical specialist visits - those expenses often need 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' budgeting - with many GPs even charging an additional fixed fee just to put your behind on the consulting room chair. One of those chairs would bring in around an extra $240-$320 per 8hr day on top of the medical consultation fees accrued for that working day.

Of course the need for new clothing or shoes frequently loses out to all these other living expenses.

It's no wonder second-hand stores & food banks have so many customers these days.

Thursday 9 March 2023

RBA Governor Lowe set to meet with Suicide Prevention Australia after indications there is a surge in people reporting elevated distress over cost-of-living pressures

 


The 10th consecutive cash rate rise announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia has low income and middle income Australia reeling.


Post, a daily newsletter from The Saturday Paper, from the pen of the Emails Editor, 8 March 2023, excerpt:


RBA governor Philip Lowe has announced a record 10th consecutive interest rate rise, but signalled the run may be coming to an end amid concerns the hikes are hurting wellbeing.


What we know:


  • The RBA increased rates by 25 basis points at the board's March meeting, to 3.6% — the highest interest rate since May 2012 (Nine);


  • Mortgage holders with a balance of $750,000 will pay an extra $121 a month — and are now likely paying about $18,900 more in repayments annually since May (realestate.com.au);


  • Lowe’s language softened on the prospect of future rate rises however, with economists suggesting there might only be one or two left (AFR $);


  • He is set to meet representatives of Suicide Prevention Australia, the peak body that has raised the alarm about a surge in people reporting elevated distress over cost-of-living pressures (The Age);


  • Research by Suicide Prevention Australia, given to Lowe late last week, shows 46% of people are reporting high levels of cost-of-living distress;


  • There has also been a lift in the number of people reporting serious thoughts of suicide, which reached 16%, with sharp increases in NSW and Victoria;


  • Lowe will give further clues as to the RBA’s plans in a speech about inflation and recent economic data to a business conference today (Canberra Times);


  • The RBA governor has previously warned of a wage-price spiral driving inflation, though wage growth has been slowing, while corporate profits are surging (The Saturday Paper).



BACKGROUND


Reserve Bank of Australia

Media Release

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision


Number 2023-07

Date 7 March 2023


At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 3.50 per cent.


Global inflation remains very high. In headline terms it is moderating, although services price inflation remains elevated in many economies. It will be some time before inflation is back to target rates. The outlook for the global economy remains subdued, with below average growth expected this year and next.


The monthly CPI indicator suggests that inflation has peaked in Australia. Goods price inflation is expected to moderate over the months ahead due to both global developments and softer demand in Australia. Services price inflation remains high, with strong demand for some services over the summer. Rents are increasing at the fastest rate in some years, with vacancy rates low in many parts of the country. The central forecast is for inflation to decline this year and next, to be around 3 per cent in mid-2025. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case.


Growth in the Australian economy has slowed, with GDP increasing by 0.5 per cent in the December quarter and 2.7 per cent over the year. Growth over the next couple of years is expected to be below trend. Household consumption growth has slowed due to the tighter financial conditions and the outlook for housing construction has softened. In contrast, the outlook for business investment remains positive, with many businesses operating at a very high level of capacity utilisation.


The labour market remains very tight, although conditions have eased a little. The unemployment rate remains at close to a 50-year low. Employment fell in January, but this partly reflects changing seasonal patterns in labour hiring. Many firms continue to experience difficulty hiring workers, although some report a recent easing in labour shortages. As economic growth slows, unemployment is expected to increase.


Wages growth is continuing to pick up in response to the tight labour market and higher inflation. At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target and recent data suggest a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another. The Board, however, remains alert to the risk of a prices-wages spiral, given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the historically low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.


The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of the cumulative increase in interest rates is yet to be felt in mortgage payments. There is uncertainty around the timing and extent of the slowdown in household spending. Some households have substantial savings buffers, but others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their budgets due to higher interest rates and the increase in the cost of living. Household balance sheets are also being affected by the decline in housing prices. Another source of uncertainty is how the global economy responds to the large and rapid increase in interest rates around the world. These uncertainties mean that there are a range of potential scenarios for the Australian economy.


The Board’s priority is to return inflation to target. High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. The Board is seeking to return inflation to the 2–3 per cent target range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.


The Board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary. In assessing when and how much further interest rates need to increase, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.



Friday 9 December 2022

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS DECEMBER 2022: with almost 9 years of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government mismanagement to reverse there is good news and not so news in the numbers

 

 Australian Bureau of Statistics, 12 things to know about the Australian economy right now, 7 December 2022:

Source





The Australian Economy - September quarter 2022


  1. Our economy grew 0.6 per cent during the September quarter 2022, and 5.9 per cent compared to last year. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of growth since the COVID-19 Delta variant lockdowns. Household consumption drove the increase, growing 1.1 per cent.
  2. We spent more and saved less. The household saving rate continued to fall reaching pre-pandemic levels. Households saved 6.9 per cent of their income during the quarter, compared to 6.8 per cent in the December quarter 2019.
  3. Consumer prices rose 1.8 per cent during the September quarter 2022 and 7.3 per cent compared to last year. This was the fastest annual increase since 1990. The major drivers of consumer price increases during the quarter were in housing, gas and furniture.
  4. Wage growth continued to trail inflation but showed signs of strengthening in response to tight labour market conditions. The unemployment rate for the month of September was 3.5 per cent. Compensation of employees rose 3.2 per cent, which was the highest quarterly rise since December quarter 2006. The private sector wage price index rose 1.2 per cent in the September quarter 2022, the highest rate of growth since September quarter 2010. Compared to a year ago, private sector wages rose 3.4 per cent, the highest annual rate of growth since December quarter 2012.
  5. We continued re-engaging with the world. In the first full quarter of relaxed international travel restrictions, spending on overseas trips grew 58 per cent. International travel reached 56 per cent of pre-pandemic levels as holidays returned to our lives.
  6. Airlines soared. With pent-up demand, activity in the air transport industry rose 25.2 per cent. The construction industry was strong on the back of major engineering and infrastructure projects, and rose 2.3 per cent. Coal mining activity has fallen for four quarters in a row.
  7. Domestic mobility increased. Household purchases of transport services rose 13.9 per cent, reaching 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels. We purchased more cars as supply bottlenecks began to ease and imports rose. Catering and accommodation services also grew by a strong 5.5 per cent with increased tourism and mobility.
  8. Our exports rode on the sheep’s back. While wet weather hampered exports of coal, rural exports surged 9.8 per cent, led by wool and cotton. Imports of communications equipment rose 5.7 per cent as new mobile phone models became available.
  9. Exports were supercharged by lithium. Our lithium concentrates exports reached a value of $3.4 billion this quarter and was up six-fold through the year. Lithium has surged into Australia’s top 10 export commodities.
  10. Private business investment rose 2.5 per cent led by an increase in infrastructure building. Home-building activity rose 3.4 per cent following an uptick in building approvals, a moderation of labour and material shortages, and an improvement in weather conditions. Government construction fell as quarantine facilities in Queensland and Western Australia were completed.
  11. Profits of financial corporations rose 4.9 per cent during the quarter. Rises in the cash rate during the quarter saw lenders tending to pass on rate increases on loans more quickly than on deposits. This was the fastest growth in financial profits since September quarter 2008.
  12. The current account returned to deficit for the first time since March quarter 2019 as corporate profits went overseas. Mining profits fell 7.1 per cent during the quarter due to weaker commodity prices.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It should be noted that since the aforementioned data was compiled the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cash target rate three times - to 2.60% in October, 2.85% in November and 3.10% in December 2022.  Resulting in the September wage price index rise for the private (1.2%) and public (0.6%) sectors falling further below cost of living increases which stood at a rise of 7.3% over the 12 months to September Quarter 2022.

According to the ABS, in 2022 annual CPI inflation reached its highest level in 20 years.

The Monthly Cost Price Index (CPI) for September showed that the most significant price rises were Housing (+10.3%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+9.6%) and Transport (+6.8%).

While the monthly CPI indicator rose 6.9% in the twelve months to October 2022, with the most significant price rises occurring in Housing (+10.5%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+8.9%) and Transport (+7.4%). New dwelling prices appear to be driving the increase in housing costs.

BACKGROUND

In Australia in April 2022 cash rate target/market interest rate was 0.1% - a percentage point it had been held at by the Reserve Bank since November 2020.

In May 2022 the rate rose to 0.35%; in June to 0.85%; in July to 1.35%, in August to 1.85%; in September to 2.35%; in October to 2.60%; in November to 2.85%; and finally, in December to 3.10%.

The headline inflation rate by October 2022 was est. 6.9%.

Sometime in January-March 2023 cash rate target/market interest rate is predicted to be at 3.60% & perhaps even 3.85% by May 2023.

In 2022 the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1 per cent in the March 2022 quarter; rose 1.8 per cent in the June 2022 quarter and rose 1.8 per cent again in the September 2022 quarter.

Friday 29 July 2022

Consumer Price Inflation now stands at 6.1% in the 12 months to end of June 2022 in Australia - rising 1.8% in the June Quarter

 

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 27 July 2022:


SOURCE: Consumer Price Index, Australia, June 2022


The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8 per cent in the June 2022 quarter and 6.1 per cent annually, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).


Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, Michelle Marquardt, said "The quarterly increase of 1.8 per cent was the second highest since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), following on from a 2.1 per cent increase last quarter."


The most significant contributors to the rise in the June quarter CPI were new dwellings (+5.6 per cent) and automotive fuel (+4.2 per cent).


"Shortages of building supplies and labour, high freight costs and ongoing high levels of construction activity continued to contribute to price rises for newly built dwellings. Fewer grant payments made this quarter from the Federal Government's HomeBuilder program and similar state-based housing construction programs also contributed to the rise," said Ms Marquardt.


"The CPI's automotive fuel series reached a record level for the fourth consecutive quarter. Fuel prices rose strongly over May and June, following a fall in April due to the fuel excise cut."


The price of goods (+2.6 per cent) continued to rise more strongly than that of services (+0.6 per cent). Notable rises were recorded across the food group (+2.0 per cent) and the furnishings, household equipment and services group (+2.5 per cent). Main contributors to the rise in food prices included vegetables (+7.3 per cent), meals out and takeaway foods (+1.4 per cent), and fruit (+3.7 per cent). Supply chain disruptions due to flooding events, labour shortages, and rising freight costs contributed to higher prices. Furniture prices rose (+7.0 per cent) due to increased transport and material costs, and stock shortages.


Services recorded a smaller rise compared with goods. Financial services (+1.2 per cent) and holiday travel and accommodation (+2.3 per cent) rose. Child care (-7.3 per cent) fell as the full effect of additional child care subsidies for families with two or more children under the age of 6, which commenced on 7 March, flowed through into this quarter. Before and after school care vouchers offered by the NSW Government also contributed to the fall in child care costs. Urban transport fares (-4.4 per cent) fell due to free travel periods introduced by the NSW and Tasmanian State Governments within the quarter.


Annually, the CPI rose 6.1 per cent, with new dwellings (+20.3 per cent) and automotive fuel (+32.1 per cent) the most significant contributors.


"The annual rise in the CPI is the largest since the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST)."


"Annual price inflation for new dwellings was the strongest recorded since the series commenced in 1999," said Ms Marquardt.


Underlying inflation measures reduce the impact of irregular or temporary price changes in the CPI. Trimmed mean inflation increased to 1.5 per cent over the quarter and 4.9 per cent over the year. The price of goods (+8.4 per cent) continued to rise more strongly through the year than that of services (+3.3 per cent).


"Annual trimmed mean inflation was the highest since the series commenced in 2003 and annual goods inflation was the highest since 1987, as the impacts of supply disruptions, rising shipping costs and other global and domestic inflationary factors flowed through the economy," said Ms Marquardt.






















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https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/jun-2022