Almost
two decades ago in 2009 the Australian Government's Dept. of
Climate Change in a first
pass assessment warned the nation:
"Over
the last 6,000–7,000 years sea level around Australia
has been relatively stable, which has generally allowed current landforms and ecosystems to persist without large scale modifications.
Since
1788 settlements have been built along our coast in expectation that
sea level would remain broadly unchanged. Significant settlement of
low-lying areas has occurred, and structures were designed and built
to standards defined by a relatively narrow period of experience.
Those
conditions are now changing. A new climate era driven by global
warming will increase risks to settlements, industries, the delivery
of services and natural ecosystems within Australia’s coastal
zone."
At
least a decade ago it was reported in the media that the Insurance
Council of Australia considered that it would not be the high
cost of repair to residential properties in the 7-10km wide coastal
strip most at risk of inundation and/or land slippage which would
make these homes uninsurable – it would be the fact that the land
on which such housing was built had become worthless.
By
2011 Australian coastal local governments were acknowledging the
issue of land valuation and future liability on residential lot
owners.
"A
number of respondents highlighted the potential risk to existing
private homes and the possibility of future depopulation and
disinvestment in exposed locations. Similarly, local planners
expressed difficulties in evaluating decisions that may quarantine
future development potential on private land.
“There’s
a big social dilemma – how do you tell someone their land is
worthless and they can’t develop it?” (local government
participant, March 2011).
One
climate change consultant described a bifurcation whereby site based
assessments fail to consider issues of transport and services. This
means that individual sites might be approved for development due to
their elevation, but lack secure provisions for road access via
existing or planned road reservations. It was suggested that
servicing these sites may become a future liability for local
government areas.
“The
house might be safe but the road’s going to be underwater and it’s
going to be unsafe for access. If local governments are going to
accept development in the areas where this additional service cost to
maintain access or service [will arise], they’ll have to have a
strategy to suggest that they impose that additional cost on the
residents who choose to live in these places, but that’s not yet
been resolved” (private sector consultant, March 2011)."
[Syd
Uni Faculty of Architecture, Design and Planning, Gurran, N et al in
Report
No. 4 for the National Sea Change Taskforce November 2011,
"Planning
for climate change adaptation in Coastal Australia: State of
practice",
pp 26-27]
Such
warnings with regard to very real climate change risks to coastal
urban areas have been repeated again and again in the years since.
In
2022 financial
services and analytics firm CoreLogic
announced that calculations based on 30 years of tidal &
shoreline retreat data indicated $5.3 billion worth of properties
were at very high risk within 800 metres of the shoreline, and another
$19.5 billion were at high risk. With dramatic changes to vulnerable
coastlines within the next 30 years.
By
October 2023 the Australian Government National
Emergency Management Agency
and
the
Australian
Institute for Disaster Resilience
had put their names to a
warning
that coastal properties with est. value of $25 billion were at
"substantial
risk"
due to coastal erosion and inundation.
In
particular noting: As
calls from homeowners for greater protection from coastal erosion
increase, the effects of bad decisions (e.g. building seawalls) will
become more critical. Local governments needs to address coastal
erosion adaptation and the equity between politics, private rights,
environmental protections and public amenities of the beachfront.
Further
noting: Australian
coastal communities will become increasingly vulnerable to rising sea
levels and extreme weather events and many beachfront properties will
become stranded assets due to loss of property values as well as
insurance and banking sectors retracting from the coastal property
market. The Reserve Bank of Australia modelled that the number of
high-risk properties could grow by over 74,000 due to climate change
(Bellrose, Norman & Royters 2021).
Despite
these warnings state governments have stubbornly resisted meaningful
changes to planning policy and legislation. While both state and
local governments generally have further entrenched internal cultures
highly resistant to curbing the ambitions of both small and large
professional property developers and land speculators - particularly
those in the approx.100km wide & 29,900km long mainland coastal
zone (including Tasmania) with its est. 49 per cent of soft shore
lines and associated coastal rivers, estuaries and flood plains.
Digital
Earth Australia, Geoscience Australia-CSIRO mapping of incidence from 1988 onwards showing most pronounced coastal shoreline loss by
m/year in gradients of pale pink to red.
When
it comes to riverine or sea water inundation this latest warning is
quite specific.
The
Daily Telegraph,
15 June 2024:
The
Going Under Report predicts the seaside holiday village, which was
completely cut off during the floods in 2022, has a 56.63 per cent
risk of becoming uninsurable by 2030.
The
report analysed close to fifteen million addresses in fifteen
thousand suburbs across Australia.
According
to the report, by 2030 588,857 (or 21 one per cent) of Australian
homes will ‘have exposure to some level of riverine flooding’
with NSW by far the most impacted.
An
Insurance Council of Australia spokesperson responded to the report
findings stating the current risk to 230,000 Australian properties is
a five per cent risk “of catastrophic flooding each year”.
“More
than half of these (123,475) are in New South Wales, with the bulk of
the remainder in Queensland and Victoria,” said the spokesperson.
NSW's
most uninsurable towns
In
NSW, 206,622 individual homes were identified as being at high risk
of becoming uninsurable by 2030. This compares with 382,235 homes in
all other states put together.
While
the Climate Council’s Nicki Hutley told The Daily Telegraph the
report findings were a reflection of updated climate science, the
University of NSW (UNSW)’s Climate Research Centre Professor Andrew
Pitman disagrees.
“The
science behind this report isn’t robust but that doesn’t mean
there aren’t risks from climate change and an imperative to act
according to climate science risk.” he said.
Grafton’s
Clarence Valley Council Councillor Greg Clancy told The Daily
Telegraph that options for towns like Grafton, built when the river
was used for transport, include relocation....
While
these are an option for river towns like Grafton with existing
residences, Mr Clancy raised concerns about new developments in flood
prone areas such as a controversial application for a $48 million 284
lot subdivision at Mile Street in Yamba.
The
Going Under Report predicts the seaside holiday village, which was
completely cut off during the floods in 2022, has a 56.63 per cent
risk of becoming uninsurable by 2030.
This
concerns Mr Clancy who personally opposed the “flood plain
development” application which is currently being determined by the
Northern Regional Planning Panel, which assesses and determines
regionally significant development applications.
“Basically,
the developers would be creating islands, so the new houses are going
to be on fill but will get cut off,” he said.
A
spokesperson from the Insurance Council of Australia said that “in
December 2022, National Cabinet tasked planning ministers to develop
a national standard for considering disaster and climate risk and
declaration that “the days of developing on flood plains need to
end”.
“The
ICA strongly supports the decision and has long been calling for
governments to commit to stopping development in areas of high flood
risk and commence work on planning reform with appropriate risk
mitigation on flood plains,” the spokesperson said....
Coastal
towns and villages on floodplains that empty into oceans are well
aware of the triple threat climate change brings into their homes:
the
high volume concentrated rain dumps which create flash flooding,
inundate low lying points within town/village boundaries and
overwhelm the stormwater system;
record
breaking river flooding which stretches almost to breaking point
both the community & local emergency services capacity to
respond; and
the
dangers of a twin event where a strong sea storm surge meets a river flood front, forcing more water into the river or estuary at the same time the flood front unable to travel unimpeded out to sea spreads across coastal land increasing flood height and duration there.
Yesterday
Northern NSW communities gave evidence at NSW Legislative Council's
Portfolio Committee No. 7 – Planning and Environment Inquiry
into the Planning system and the impacts of climate change on the
environment and communities.
I
listened via the live feed to the morning of that hearing day, as
representatives of their communities from South
West Rocks,
Coffs Harbour,
Yamba,
Maclean
and Evans Head
spoke with authority and insight about the very real climate
change-induced risks they already face, the increased dangers
predicted to occur as the climate crisis deepens and, drew attention
to the lack of political will within state & local government,
absence of detailed strategic planning required to avoid or at least
significantly mitigate against destructive changes to flood &
stormwater behaviour frequently caused by inappropriate large-scale development and, need to cease further urban development on floodplains and in the immediate vicinity of vulnerable coastlines.
When
the 17 June hearing transcript is posted on the NSW Parliament
website, a summary containing the principal arguments and
observations will be posted on North Coast Voices.
