Two Australian Leaders: popularity polling and that polygraph worm

Well, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott can't say that he wasn't warned. Talking heads from the medical fraternity, at least one well-known journalist and even ordinary voters told him before he went into today's televised Leaders' Debate that he would be wise to present Coalition policy and not indulge in politicking.

Instead Abbott lead with his jaw and the Channel 7/Morgan Research handpicked audience with their fingers on the polygraph worm obliged by landing a blow on that jaw at almost every opportunity.

I had made myself a coffee which almost stood to attention on the amount of caffeine it contained, in anticipation of a nail bitingly tense debate.

Halfway through I abandoned the coffee and took up my knitting, as the worm spent most of its time on the middle line or in positive territory when Kevin Rudd was speaking and, on the middle line or in negative territory when Tony Abbott had the floor.

Attacks on the Prime Minister, mention of that so-called 'great big new tax' and even talk of the failed national roof insulation scheme did not move Abbott out from under the wrong side of that visual opinion line - in fact he was a distinct medical flatline when he refused to talk about any Coalition health policy he intends to take to the federal election.

All this merely confirms what Essential Media has been saying for some time, Kevin Rudd is still popular with the electorate and currently 'owns' health policy.

Excerpt from the Essential Report survey results (based on an estimated 1,000 respondents) taken between 16-21 March 2010:

Better Prime Minister – Rudd or Abbott

Q. Regardless of your likely party choice for the next election, which of the leaders – Kevin Rudd or Tony Abbott – do you think overall would be the best Prime Minister?

21 Dec 09 - 22 March 10

Kevin Rudd 51% - 50%

Tony Abbott 25% - 30%

Don't know 24% - 19%

When it comes to a choice between Rudd and Abbott as better Prime Minister, 50% selected Rudd and 30% selected Abbott. The results for Rudd shifted slightly (-1%) since we last asked this question in December 2009. However, there has been a five percent increase in the number of people that prefer Abbott and a decrease in the number of people that don't know (-5%).

Results followed party lines – 92% of Labor voters chose Rudd and 74% of Coalition voters chose Abbott. 64% of Green voters selected Rudd and 11% of Green voters selected Abbott.

People aged 65 years and over were more likely to think Abbott would make a better Prime Minister (42%) while 18 – 24 year olds were more likely to indicate they don't know who would make a better Prime Minister out of Rudd and Abbott (28%).

Federal takeover of hospitals and health services

Q. Do you support or oppose the Federal Government's plan to take over the responsibility for funding hospitals and health services from the State Governments?

%

Total support 58%

Total oppose 12%

Strongly support 25%

Support 33%

Neither support nor oppose 21%

Oppose 7%

Strongly oppose 5%

Don't know 9%

Over half (58%) of those surveyed support the Federal Government's plan to take over responsibility for funding hospitals and health services from the State Governments, 12% oppose, 21% neither support nor oppose and 9% don't know.

79% of Labor voters, 46% of Coalition voters and 55% of Green voters support a Federal takeover for funding of hospitals and health services. 27% of Coalition voters neither support nor oppose the plan and 22% oppose it.

People in NSW were more likely than those in other states to support a Federal takeover (64%). 55% of people in Queensland and 52% in Victoria support the plan.

Males were more likely than females to support the plan (61% v 56%). Support for a Federal takeover was highest amongst 55 – 64 year olds (67%).

In February this year we asked the Australian public whether they support or oppose a Federal takeover of hospitals. The results showed that 58% supported a Federal takeover, 10% opposed it, 19% neither supported nor opposed and 13% didn't know.

Power suppliers to raise average prices by up to 42%. NSW Government offers pensioners extra $15 annual rebate to cope.

As at 30 June 2009, there were twenty-nine power companies holding electricity retail supplier licences in NSW and Energy Australia, Integral Energy and Country Energy account for approximately 81% this retail market.

Integral Energy, Energy Australia and Country Energy are all owned by the New South Wales Government.

The Review of regulated retail tariffs and charges for electricity 2010-2013: Electricity — Final Report March 2010 shows that:

Integral Energy average regulated retail tariffs will rise by 7% in 2010-11, 14% in 2011-12 and 20% in 2012-13.

Energy Australia average regulated retail tariffs will rise by 10% in 2010-11, 16% in 2011-12 and 25% in 2012-13.

Country Energy average regulated retail tariffs will rise by 13% in 2010-11, 17% in 2011-12 and 24% in 2012-13.

The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal stated in a recent media release:

From 1 July 2010, average annual prices will increase by 7% for Integral Energy customers, 10% for EnergyAustralia customers, and 13% for Country Energy customers.

Over the next 3 years to June 2013, average prices will increase by a cumulative total of 20% for Integral Energy, 36% for EnergyAustralia, and 42% for Country Energy.

IPART Acting Chairman and CEO Mr Jim Cox said: "The network increases, which were determined by the AER, will allow network service providers to increase investment in infrastructure and improve network security and reliability of supply in line with the new licence conditions imposed by the NSW Government".

For single Aged, Disability or Veterans' Affairs pensioners living alone this will possibly mean a cost increase of somewhere between $30+ for the very power frugal over the coming winter to $65+ for those who need to regularly put the electric heater on to keep warm.

In the 2008-09 financial year 2,659 pensioners had their electricity disconnected at least once over that time. One has to wonder how many more will find themselves in this position in 2010-11.

Somehow I don't think that NSW Energy Minister John Robertson's promise that the Government would increase rebates from $130 to $145 a year to more than one million consumers to help cover the costs of the rise will ease concerns felt in may low-income households.

Google Earth is not an accurate measuring tool, but try telling that to one roof insulation installer

Random Google Earth snapshot

Think there's too much fuss being made about some of the problems gathered around the federal home roof insulation scheme?
Might be time to think again because more of those suspect firms who joined the subsidized feeding frenzy are being uncovered each day.

This was reported last week in a local newspaper:

“As an example of the nature of the compliance issues being dealt with by the department, one company in northern NSW, which has claimed $9.6 million under the program, is being investigated in relation to over 100 complaints concerning electrification of foil insulation, dangerous electrical practices, damage to ceilings and roof coverings as well as phantom installations,” Mr Combet said.
“I am advised that all payments to this company have been suspended and action is being taken to rectify safety matters and to reclaim government funds.”
Now it seems there is also mention of a NSW North Coast operator who advertised roof insulation installation under the scheme and then stated to at least one potential customer that there was no need to come out and measure the roof as dimensions could be gathered from a Google Earth satellite snapshot. I kid you not.
This rather haphazard firm tried to convince the dubious homeowner that it didn't matter what internal ceiling types she had; that the far from accurately scaled outside snapshot would tell them all.
The home owner declined to proceed as she knew that pink batts would not be suitable for the cathedral ceilings in parts of the house and she had little confidence that she would receive an accurate quote for the rest of the roof area.
This same company was one of those which had the hide to front the Prime Minister in Canberra complaining about the scheme's suspension.

Local wags are running odds on the company mentioned by Combet and the company known locally to be offering Google Earth measuring being one and the same.

Show me the policy, Mr. Abbott!

It would appear that during the faux federal election campaign Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is not taking the forthcoming Leaders' Debate seriously and expects to use it to mount a series of questions rather than give any genuine outline of the health policy the Coalition intends to take into the formal campaign.

This attittude is not always playing well in the regions if the following emailed letter is any indication:

Hon. Tony Abbott MHR
Leader of the Opposition
Parliament House
Canberra ACT

22 March 2010

Dear Sir,

I have read with interest your reported comments on the forthcoming "Leaders' Debate" this week which is intended to address the subject of health care.

I am concerned that these comments appear to indicate that you have no intention of broadly outlining the Coalition health policy you intend to take to the Australian electorate later this year.

As an ordinary voter I would appreciate less politicking and more respect for the general public, who deserve the longest possible time to compare competing policies before going to the polling booths.

Quite frankly even the most pyrotechnic of debating styles will fail to impress my household if all it turns out to be is flash and no substance.

Sincerely,

[Name and address redacted]

Nationals' Hartsuyker receives a slap down form Labor's Saffin

On the matter of a formal application to disperse roosting bats from land adjoining Maclean High School, last week Federal Labor MP for Page Janelle Saffin finally had enough of Federal Nationals MP for Cowper Luke Hartsuyker:

“I can say in response to Luke Hartsukyer’s silly comments, that the only one feeling the pressure is Luke himself, for not doing his job and helping to resolve it much earlier, and for deceiving the people, by not working on the plan from the beginning; a plan that requires, short, medium and long-term goals, which is what I have done since I was first asked for some assistance.
“Luke, I am going to offer you some unsolicited advice, and it goes like this:
“The best thing you can do, is to leave the people alone, leave the public servants alone and let them get on with their job of resolving this problem to the satisfaction of the students, staff and parents.
“It really does not need any more grandstanding and attacks on me ... people are weary with it.
“You carping does nothing to advance the safety and health needs of the school community.
“Given it is your electorate, I am trying to help you do your work, that you seem unable or unwilling to do.”

Keneally for Canberra? Bite your tongue!

Crikey was peddling a rumour last Wednesday, which if true might see NSW Premier K-K-Keneally neutralised on the Canberra back bench or holding a federal ministry if one unnamed electorate was silly enough to fall in behind her.....
"I have heard a rumour that Kristina Keneally has been promised a federal seat if she can do a "good enough" job at the next election..."
Just what the country needs. Yet another über-ambitious pollie down in Canberra who mistakes media bites and PR spin for actual policy creation.
The ethnocentric Keneally would be a disaster on the national stage.