Tiresome tea leaf reading: so who's winning at the opinion polls this week?

So who's winning at the opinion polls this week?
Bottom line is that Labor is slightly improved on first preference votes compared to last week (but not nearly enough to gladden the hearts of its backroom boys) and holding steady on two party preferred numbers.
While the Coalition is basically holding steady over the same week on both counts.
When is comes to confidence in the person - both Rudd and Abbott are on the nose with the electorate and although Rudd's fall from grace has been the more spectacular over the last few months it appears that Abbott remains the most unpopular of the two.

And who would win if an election was called tomorrow?
With The Greens growing stronger and their preferences still up for grabs, it's nothing more than a guessing game right now despite what some mainstream media pundits might say.
It's worth noting that those serious tea leaf readers, the punters, are still behind the Government. The money's running 63.8% for Labor and 36.2% for the Coalition as of 18th June.



Betting figures from Pollytics.







The real winners in all this number crunching are the professional pollers who have us all convinced that slight changes in weekly figures actually matter.

In last Monday's telephone Newspoll 18th -20th June 2010:

• the Labor Party held steady at 35% of the first preference vote and the Coalition fell one point to 40%


• on a two party preferred basis Labor rose one point to 52% and the Coalition fell one point to 48%


• dissatisfaction with Rudd's performance as Prime Minister rose two points to 55% and dissatisfaction with Abbott's performance as Opposition Leader stayed steady at 49%


• the preferred prime minister stakes ran at 46% for Rudd (a fall of three points) and 37% for Abbott (a rise of four points).

According to Newspoll; "These surveys were conducted on the telephone by trained interviewers in all states of Australia and in both city and country areas. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution. The latest survey is based on 1,147 interviews among voters. The maximum margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points."

Out the same day the Essential Report online polling for the 15th - 20th June was released:

• the Labor Party rose three points to 38% of the first preference vote and the Coalition fell one point to 40%


• on a two party preferred basis Labor rose one point to 52% and the Coalition fell one point to 48%


• 40% believed that Labor would have a better chance at the next election if Rudd was not prime minister and 47% believed that the Coalition would have a better chance at the next election if Abbott was not opposition leader


• the preferred prime minister stakes ran at 47% for Rudd (a fall of three points since 22 March) and 30% for Abbott (trading water since 22 March).

According to Essential Report; "This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The omnibus was conducted online from 15h to 20th June and obtained 1,066 respondents."