Weighing up the poll-driven media

Sometimes it is hard to decide whether media reporting driven by opinion polls represents solid fact or ephemeral fancy………

On 18 April 2011 The Age published an article based on the results of Nielsen survey from 14-16 April 2011 based on 1,400 respondents:

a carbon price has become steadily more unpopular

On the same day The New Zealand Herald told the world that:

Prime Minister Julia Gillard's fragile minority Government continues to sink in the polls as Australians increasingly turn against her proposed carbon tax.

While ABC Radio AM online echoed these reports with:

Criticism of Julia Gillard's carbon tax has broadened, with the latest Sydney Morning Herald/Age AC Nielsen poll showing that opposition to a price on carbon has jumped three points to 59 per cent…..

Based on the same Nielsen poll used by the mainstream media, Crikey opined:

opposition has mounted

Then the BusinessGreen news site on 18 April decided to muddy waters by mentioning a second survey taken in March 2011:

The Australian government's flagship plans for a new carbon tax and emissions trading scheme are facing growing opposition, according to two new polls suggesting that public and business support for the proposals is wavering. A survey of 1,400 people commissioned by Fairfax newspapers and published earlier today found that 59 per cent of respondents opposed the government's proposals, up three points on the last survey in March. Another Essential Media poll of just over 1,000 people carried out late last month reported that 51 per cent of respondents opposed the plan while only 34 per cent supported it.

However on the very same day all of the above articles were published, Essential Research released results of an online survey from 13-17 April 2011 based on 1,002 respondents showing another way of gauging support:

With compensation for low and middle income earners and small businesses, support for the Government’s carbon pricing scheme increased to 51% and opposition dropped to 33%. This is a slight fall in support since this question was last asked in mid-March.

With compensation, support among Labor voters increases 15% to 78% and for Liberal/National voters increases 13% to 34%.

Support among men increased from 39% to 47% and for women increases from 38% to 55%.

It will be interesting to see how the media responds to this particular Essential Research survey, given that it runs somewhat counter to the main narrative when compensation for any price rise is factored into the equation. At the time of writing only Crikey had bothered to mention this second survey.

So what does one believe with regard to the Australian electorate’s sentiment concerning placing a price on carbon pollution?

I suspect that, faced with conflicting information, we all believe that the majority agrees with whatever is our own personal position.