Nationals MP for Cowper Luke Hartsuyker, media release dated 6 February 2012 and reported in The Coffs Coast Advocate on 7 February:
"An analysis of Treasury modelling has revealed that in addition to rises in the cost of living, under a carbon tax real wages will drop one per cent by 2020 and six per cent by 2050," Mr Hartsuyker said. "A one per cent drop is the equivalent of $600 per year for a worker on average wages. As we approach July 1 when the carbon tax will come into effect, the true impact is becoming very real. The double whammy of lower wages and higher prices will hit families hard.
"Last week Qantas announced an increase in their charges as a result of the Gillard Government's carbon tax.
This will have an impact on our domestic tourism industry which is so important to the North Coast. …"
Sounds terrible, doesn't it? Shall we panic now as this less than honest MP obviously hopes we will?
Well, before you expend any energy on emulating Chicken Little for the edification of neighbours and friends, consider the following – a 15 February Qantas price increase is not due to the yet to be implemented Australian carbon pricing scheme and, the most recent Treasury update does not support any doomsday scenario in relation to wages.
Qantas statement concerning the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme:
From 1st January 2012, aviation will be included in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The EU ETS covers all flights operating into or out of the EU, no matter where the operator is based. The EU ETS requires the operator of the flight to acquire allowances in respect of the emissions generated by any flight into or out of the EU. Qantas as a result will need to comply with the EU ETS, with an estimated cost impact of approximately A$2.3 million in the initial calendar year 2012.
In context of the significant challenges facing the global aviation industry, the Qantas International business will be unable to absorb the additional costs associated with the EU ETS and there will be a pass-through to customers…..
While the Qantas ticket prices to UK/Europe may rise initially with the introduction of the EU ETS collection from 15 February 2012, Qantas ticket prices will remain competitive and are subject to change. [my red bolding]
Qantas statement concerning Domestic Carbon Pricing and Carbon Tax charge:
The Australian Government introduced its Clean Energy legislation last year, which created a carbon price system (CPS). The CPS takes effect from 1 July 2012…
In the context of the significant challenges facing the global aviation industry, the Qantas Group will be unable to absorb the additional costs associated with the CPS and there will be a full pass-through to customers.
Price rise projections (including GST per sector) start at $1.82 for journeys under 701kms to $6.86 for journeys of 1,901kms and above.
Australian Government Treasury, Modelling A Carbon Price Overview, September 2011:
This update revises the policy parameters of the national and sectoral economic modelling contained in the Strong growth, low pollution: modelling a carbon price (SGLP) report.
It presents two additional scenarios: one that reflects the Clean Energy Future package endorsed by the MPCCC, with a starting carbon price of $23/t CO2‑e instead of the $20/t CO2‑e modelled in the SGLP report; and one that also includes additional Government policy measures.
The updated modelling confirms the Australian economy will continue to grow strongly while emissions are reduced. Macroeconomic and sectoral projections from the updated policy scenarios are very close to those of the SGLP policy scenario, as the policy scenarios feature the same emission targets, the same carbon prices after the first three years and share a majority of other policy features.
Average incomes measured by gross national income (GNI) per person increase by around $9,000 from today's level to 2020 and by more than $30,000 to 2050. GNI per person grows by 1.1 per cent per year to 2050 with carbon pricing, compared to 1.2 per cent per year without carbon pricing. Employment continues to grow strongly, with national employment increasing by 1.6 million jobs by 2020, with or without carbon pricing. All state economies continue to grow strongly.
The impact of a $23/t CO2‑e carbon price on aggregate consumer prices (of 0.7 per cent in 2012‑13) was reported in the SGLP report; no update is needed.
The main additional results in this modelling update are:
· the higher starting price reduces domestic emissions by an additional 5 Mt CO2‑e in total over the first three years of the scheme;
· the Government measure to apply an effective carbon price to fuel used by heavy road vehicles from 1 July 2014 reduces Australia's domestic emissions by an additional 4 Mt CO2‑e in 2020 and 20 Mt CO2‑e in 2050 and lowers the cost of meeting Australia's emission reduction targets; and
· updated electricity sector modelling confirms the estimated 10 per cent increase in electricity prices in 2012‑13 from carbon pricing presented in the SGLP report. [my red bolding]
Excerpt from a 9 February media release by Federal Labor MP for Page, Janelle Saffin:
PAGE MP Janelle Saffin says Federal Member for Cowper Luke Hartsuyker’s latest attempt to discredit the carbon price shows that he has got his facts wrong … again.
“Mr Hartsuyker is trying to instil fear into workers by claiming that a carbon price will cut real wages,” Ms Saffin said.
Ms Saffin said the facts are Treasury modelling of the Australian Government’s Clean Energy Future Package shows that under a carbon price:
• Real wages will increase by 20 per cent by 2020 and almost 50 per cent by 2050;
• Incomes will grow – real income per capita is projected to increase by $9000 in today’s dollars by 2020;
• Employment will grow with 1.6 million new jobs created by 2020;
• Strong economic growth will continue with gross national income projected to grow at 1.1 per cent a year to 2050;
• Price impacts will be modest with a one-off increase of 0.7 per cent in the Consumer Price Index, much less than the 2.5 per cent impact of the GST;
• And importantly, pollution will fall – by 2050, carbon pricing is expected to reduce Australia’s domestic carbon emissions by nearly half what they would be without a carbon price, a reduction of 485 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent.
Ms Saffin said Mr Hartsuyker can remain a climate change skeptic if he likes, but he should not consistently misrepresent Treasury modelling.......
The Government’s Clean Energy Act will put a price on the pollution of the country’s 500 biggest polluters, creating economic incentives to reduce pollution and invest in clean energy.
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