It should come as no surprise that in the Coal War being conducted by right-wing ideologues and climate change deniers consumers are predicted to be the losers under the Turnbull Government's National Energy Agreement (NEG) and, that Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is offering the same illusory $550 per annum saving on electricity costs per household promised but not delived by his predecessor Tony Abbott.
A COAG Energy Council Ministers meeting on August 2018 will reveal the final NEG design - a design which won't be published until after this meeting.
What is already broadly known about the NEG design appears to support allegations that the aim of this agreement is to cement the dominant position of fossil fuels in the national energy mix at the expense of renewable energy technologies.
REneweconomy, 20 July 2018:
As pressure mounts for
Australia’s states and territories to finalise their position on the National Energy
Guarantee, a new report has warned the federal government’s policy would fail
to achieve its most basic and important function: to lower energy costs for
consumers.
The report, commissioned
by Greenpeace Australia Pacific, says the Coalition’s NEG would in fact do the
opposite – raise electricity prices; as well as bringing investment in
large-scale renewables to a halt, and do nothing to combat climate change.
Based on analysis
conducted by energy and environment analysts RepuTex, the report models the
impact of the NEG under the government’s 26 per cent emissions reduction
target, compared to a more ambitious 45 percent target.
In both scenarios, as
shown in Figure 17 above, electricity prices are forecast to fall through to
2020 as more than 6GW of renewable energy enters the NEM under large-scale
renewable energy target (LRET).
“The increase in low
cost solar and wind generation will see the electricity supply steadily become
more competitive, with average prices less influenced by high priced gas, and
subsequently falling toward $60 MWh in 2020,” the report says.
But under the NEG, new
investment in renewables falls off a cliff after 2020, while the impact of the
reliability guarantee drives an increase in gas generation, prolongs the
phase-out of coal, and makes it harder for key new technologies, like battery
storage and demand management to compete.
“The result is the
continuation of a coal-dominated market with a fairly static picture for
large-scale renewables investment, with gas providing flexibility to meet
evening ramp ups,” the report says.
“As a result wholesale
prices rise above $70 per MWh after the closure of Liddell, and $80 per MWh
after the expected retirement of Yallourn in 2028.”
A more ambitious
emissions reduction target, however, of 45 per cent, would provide a signal for
investment in more solar and wind, driving prices down by around $20/MWh.
“The competitive
pressure from higher solar and wind energy is modelled to push wholesale prices
lower, eventually resulting in the closure of excess coal capacity” – around
9GW, in total, by 2030 RepuTex says.
Published
on Jul 23, 2018
The
crucial make or break meeting of State Energy Ministers is on 10 August. So if
we want block Turnbull's dirty energy plan, we need to move right now.
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