Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 12 Jly 2018:
Warmer days and nights favoured
for August–October
August to October days
and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of the country, with
high chances (greater than 80%) in eastern Victoria and NSW, and southern
Tasmania.
Days and nights in
August are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, with high
chances (greater than 80%) of warmer days in the southeast.
Historical accuracy for
August–October maximum temperatures is moderate for eastern and northern parts
of Australia, as well as southern WA. Elsewhere, accuracy is low to very low.
Historical accuracy for minimum temperatures is moderate for the northern half
of Australia, SA, and Tasmania, but low to very low elsewhere.
Temperature - The chance
of above median maximum temperature for August to October
Drier than average
August–October likely in northeast and southeast mainland
August to October is
likely to be drier than average in Victoria, NSW, southeast SA and northeast
Queensland
The August outlook shows
most of Victoria, NSW and Queensland are likely to be drier than average.
Historical outlook
accuracy for August to October is moderate over most of the country, except for
interior WA, where accuracy is low to very low.
Rainfall - Totals that
have a 75% chance of occurring for August to October
Drought
June rainfall was below
average for most of Australia, and very much below average for parts of the
east coast
The start of the
southern wet season has been drier than average
Rainfall deficiencies
persist in both the east and west of the country, increasing in the east at the
6- and 15-month timescales, and along the west coast at the 15-month timescale
Lower-layer soil
moisture was below average for June across most of New South Wales, the
southern half of Queensland, South Australia, the Northern Territory, the
Kimberley and the south of Western Australia
Soil Moisture
Soil moisture in the
lower layer (from 10 cm to 100 cm deep) for June decreased over
eastern Australia, and increased over parts of northwest Western Australia
following above average rainfall for June.
Lower-layer soil
moisture was below average for the Kimberley and southern Western Australia
away from the west coast, most of South Australia and the Northern Territory,
New South Wales and eastern Victoria, southern and eastern Queensland south of
a line between Birdsville and Townsville, and along the coastal fringe of
eastern Cape York Peninsula.
Map of lower level soil moisture for the previous month
NSW Dept. of Primary Industries, NSW State Seasonal Update - June 2018. Click on map to enlarge:
The entire Northern Rivers region is considered drought affected.
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