Monday, 11 March 2019

State of Play 11 March 2019: as both Australian federal election and New South Wales state election grow near



A Newspoll survey of 1,610 Australian voted was conducted between Thursday 7 March and Sunday 10 March 2019.

The Federal Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government suffered its 50th consecutive loss on a Two-Party Preferred (TPP) basis since June 2016 in this latest Newspoll.

50th Newpoll results:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals 36 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent, One Nation 7 per cent.

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 46 per cent (down 1point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -2 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -15 points.

If a federal election had been held on 10 March 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 86 seats (up 2 seats since February poll) to the Coalition's 59 seats (down 4 seats since February poll) in the House of Representatives.

On the basis of these predictions voting in the NSW North Coast electorate of Page held by Nationals MP Kevin Hogan may go down to the wire.

Even the sports betting is favouring Labor over the Coalition.

Meanwhile in New South Wales just 12 days out from a the March 2019 state election and  The Guardian is reporting that that:

A new poll indicates Labor leads the coalition 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis with Daley ahead of Berejiklian as preferred premier.

The UComms/ReachTel poll, published in the Sun-Herald, also shows the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped to 28.7% while Labor’s remains steady at 34.1%.

While a YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph shows the NSW Nationals are on the cusp of losing Barwon and Lismore and are also facing battles in the National­ seats of Upper Hunter, Tweed, Murray and Coffs Harbour, and Liberal-held Coogee, East Hills, Penrith and Goulburn.

It is being said that the loss of six of those ten seats would result in a post-election Berejiklian Government being a minority government. The last minority NSW government was voted in from 1991-1995. It was a Coalition Government supported by Independents,

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