Friday, 29 October 2021

COVID-19 Delta Variant Outbreak Northern NSW: in answer to a sense of frustration felt by some



A few locals have wondered aloud why there is so little in the mainstream media concerning the Delta Variant Outbreak in Northern NSW. One or two have said ‘It’s almost as if we’ve been forgotten’ or words to that effect.


There is no clear explanation for the one-moment-hot-one moment-cold approach taken towards this particular parcel of regional New South Wales.


Though I rather suspect media are not being overly encouraged to look at the wider regional picture.


Because this wider picture shows that until the NSW Government began to ramp up the push to ‘live with COVID’, began to elaborate on the ‘freedom’ it was going to give the Greater Sydney area and played about with public health orders so that, perhaps accidentally, it increased population mobility at a time when this carried risk, there were still rural and regional local government areas such as 6 of the 7 in Northern NSW which had not ever experienced residents in their own communities becoming infected with either the original SARS-CoV-2 virus or the more infectious Delta Variant whilst going about their daily lives.


Focusing on just this one region for even a short period might make other rural and regional areas across NSW and, their local government areas, consider exactly what did an overly compliant state government forcefully impose on them to keep Greater Sydney and industry quiet in the lead up to a federal election.


OVERVIEW



There are seven local government areas in north-east NSW and like a number of other coastal zone councils they all recorded cases of COVID-19 by March 2020.





Byron Bay recorded its first contacts with COVID-19 from 14 March 2020 through to 8 April 2020 – all 16 cases were overseas sourced infections with no community transmission in the local government area. However, on 25 July 2021 the first 2 confirmed locally acquired cases were recorded – just 39 days after the Delta Variant began in Sydney.


COVID-19 entered Tweed Shire on the NSW-Qld border on or about 18 March 2020, when both a confirmed interstate-sourced case & a locally acquired case with no links to a know infection were recorded. From then until April 2021 a further 16 COVID-19 cases were recorded as overseas sourced and there was no apparent community transmission. Tweed’s first locally acquired case that was clearly linked to community transmission was recorded on 30 September 2021 - just under 4 months after the Delta Variant Outbreak began in Sydney.


Clarence Valley recorded its first confirmed COVID-19 cases began on 20 March 2020. However, all these 8 cases were from overseas and did not infect local communities. From 29 March 2020 until 4 October 2021 there had been no confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded in the valley. Its first confirmed locally acquired cases were recorded on 5 October 2021 – just under 4 months after the Delta Variant Outbreak began in Sydney.


Ballina recorded its first COVID-19 case on 22 March 2020. The next day saw its first locally acquired COVID-19 infection, followed by another 12 confirmed COVID-19 cases over the next 15 months, of which only 2 were locally acquired. On 1 July 2021 an overseas sources COVID-19 case was recorded in Ballina, but it wasn’t until about three months later on 6 October 2021 that locally acquired COVID-19 cases began to occur in a distinct community transmission pattern – just under 4 months after the Delta Variant Outbreak began in Sydney.


Lismore City recorded its first confirmed case of COVID-19 on 23 March 2020 and it was an overseas sourced infection with the next 5 cases up to 15 July 2020 being 5 overseas sources & 1 interstate sourced infection. Up to that point there was no community transmission in the local government area. It remained that way for the next 7 months. Then on 15 September 2021 the very first confirmed case of locally acquired COVID-19 was recorded – 15 months after the Delta Variant Outbreak began in Sydney.


Richmond Valley was first introduced to COVID-19 on 31 March 2020 when an overseas sourced COVID-19 case was recorded. A second overseas sourced COVID-19 case was recorded on 28 April 2020. Then the virus disappeared from view. It wasn’t until 28 September 2021 that the first confirmed locally acquired COVID-19 case was recorded in the local government area – a little over 3 months after the Delta Variant Outbreak began in Sydney.


The notable exception to all this was little Kyogle. It had no overseas, interstate or from elsewhere in NSW, COVID-19 cases recorded in the local government area at all – never ever – and up to 27 October 2021 still doesn’t. Its first confirmed locally acquired case was recorded on 28 September 2021 – over 21 months after SARS-CoV-2 first entered Australia and over 4 months after the Delta Variant Outbreak began in Sydney.


NOTE: As data is regularly reviewed, NSW Health from time to time removes or otherwise alters its COVID-19 notification records. The numbers and dates cited in this post were accurate up to 26 October 2021.


BACKGROUND


According to NSW Health in the week ending 25 October 2021 there were 2,207 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 and 4,141 active cases.


In that time period every single local health district contained confirmed COVID-19 cases and virus fragments were found in 109 sewerage treatment plants.


As at 26 October 2021 51 NSW hospitals had 321 inpatient cases of COVID-19 & 21 of these hospitals also had COVID-19 patients in intensive care units. There was also an additional 2,361 infected people being treated outside of a hospital setting.


As of 8pm on Tuesday, 26 October 2021 there have been 122 confirmed cases of locally acquired COVID-19 infection in the Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) since on or about 13 September 2021 when the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant first entered north-east New South Wales from the Greater Sydney area.


As yet the infection numbers are relatively low.


The confirmed cases location breakdown in Northern NSW between 13 September & 26 October 2021 appears to be:


Tweed Shire - 6 cases + 1 infection contracted elsewhere in NSW

Byron Bay - 7 cases

Ballina - 11 cases

Kyogle - 16 cases

Richmond Valley - 20 cases

Lismore City - 25 cases

Clarence Valley - 36 cases.


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