"The climate of NSW is changing due to global warming. The effects of climate change on the people and environment of NSW are expected to become more pronounced as the climate continues to change over this century." [NSW Environment Protection Authority (NSW EPA) 2021]
In or around 2021 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) published a table of monthly sea levels for Yamba, a small coastal town in north-east NSW, for the years 1986 to 2020.
Included as a footnote to this table was the following
information:
Statistics
Mean sea level = 0.952 (Average monthly means = 0.951) Maximum recorded level of 2.330 metres at 0900 hours 23/05/2009 Minimum recorded level of -0.138 metres at 1500 hours 02/11/2002 Standard deviation of the observations = 0.3949 metres Skewness = 0.1464
[my yellow highlighting]
The CSIRO "State of the Climate Report 2020" observed that sea levels are currently rising at 3.5 cm (0.035m) per decade. While NSW EPA "NSW State of the Environment Report 2021" stated that the states sea level was 3.5mm (0.035) and rising, with the Port Kembla gauge showing a mean sea level rise of around 10cm (0.1m) since 1991.
So what does that sea level creep mean for Yamba, a town only two months away from possibly entering a fourth calendar year of increased rainfall exacerbated by La Niña events? A
town which has experienced Lower Clarence River floods in
December 2020, March & December 2021 and February-
March 2022. A town situated in a coastal estuary zone within
the south-east quarter of the Australian mainland and,
therefore with a recognised high risk of ocean warming/rising
sea-level. [ NSW Government, Adapt NSW, 2022]
Using the latest inappropriate development application for 6.65ha in the middle of the town - currently before Clarence Valley Council and the Northern Regional Planning Panel - as a constant point the following maps show how rising sea height in the ocean off Yamba may affect local residents.
8 PARK AVE, YAMBA aka PARKSIDE OVER 50s LIFESTYLE COMMUNITY
With a sea-level rise compounding increased rainfall this is potentially what Park Ave and surrounding streets will look like in another 10-30 years at a mean sea-level which has increased by another est. 3.5cm to 10.5cm.
2030: an approximation of the effect of an expected sea-level increase of 3.5cm above 2020 Yamba mean sea-level
 |
| https://coastalrisk.com.au/viewer Click on image to enlarge |
North Coast Voices readers will notice that in 8 years time sea water is across Park Ave-Shores Drive intersection for metres, the one road "Parkside" residents can use to leave the lifestyle complex. This possibly will occur at high tide
each day.
2050: an approximation of the effect of an expected sea-level increase of 10.5cm above 2020 Yamba mean sea-level
 |
| https://coastalrisk.com.au/viewer Click on image to enlarge |
By 28 years time in 2050 the lifestyle complex is still relatively intact but has no road access to the rest of Yamba, given the entire length of Shores Drive is under water. The local shopping mall is inundated. Police and ambulance cannot enter the lifestyle village from its single access road.
In the decades after 2050: an approximation of the effect of a projected sea-level increase of 1.5m above 2020 Yamba mean sea-level
 |
| https://coastalrisk.com.au/viewer Click on image to enlarge Sometime after 2050 "Parkside Over 50s Lifestyle Community" becomes an ephemeral tidal island in an enlarged estuary. |
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