Trump's set the bar high as he begins his punitive Trade War 2.0 with the rest of the world

 

On 1 February 2025 the U.S. White House released a Fact Sheet entitled "Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico and China".

Stripping away 90 per cent of the rhetorical posturing contained therein, the fact sheet stated that:

 

"President Donald J. Trump is implementing a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China. Energy resources from Canada will have a lower 10% tariff."

Going on to assert: 

"Access to the American market is a privilege. The United States has one of the most open economies in the world, and the lowest average tariff rates in the world.

While trade accounts for 67% of Canada’s GDP, 73% of Mexico’s GDP, and 37% of China’s GDP, it accounts for only 24% of U.S. GDP. However, in 2023 the U.S. trade deficit in goods was the world’s largest at over $1 trillion.

Tariffs are a powerful, proven source of leverage for protecting the national interest. President Trump is using the tools at hand and taking decisive action that puts Americans’ safety and our national security first."

That same day in immediate response to these increased US tariffs, the Canadian Government released the following:

News release (excerpt)

"February 1, 2025 - Ottawa, Ontario - Department of Finance Canada

Today, the Honourable Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs, and the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, announced that the Government of Canada is moving forward with 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion worth of goods in response to the unjustified and unreasonable tariffs imposed by the United States (U.S.) on Canadian goods.

These countermeasures have one goal: to protect and defend Canada’s interests, consumers, workers, and businesses.

The first phase of our response will include tariffs on $30 billion in goods imported from the U.S., effective February 4, 2025, when the U.S tariffs are applied. The list includes products such as orange juice, peanut butter, wine, spirits, beer, coffee, appliances, apparel, footwear, motorcycles, cosmetics, and pulp and paper. A detailed list of these goods will be made available shortly.

Minister LeBlanc also announced that the government intends to impose tariffs on an additional list of imported U.S. goods worth $125 billion. A full list of these goods will be made available for a 21-day public comment period prior to implementation, and will include products such as passenger vehicles and trucks, including electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, certain fruits and vegetables, aerospace products, beef, pork, dairy, trucks and buses, recreational vehicles, and recreational boats.

In addition to this initial response, Ministers LeBlanc and Joly reiterated that all options remain on the table as the government considers additional measures, including non-tariff options, should the U.S. continue to apply unjustified tariffs on Canada......"

On 1 February 2025 the Government of Mexico also responded to the new US tariffs by instructing its Secretary of Economy to implement "tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico's interests" and its President strongly countering the absurd claims in the White House 'fact sheet' with: 

"We categorically reject the White House's slander against the Mexican government of having alliances with criminal organizations, as well as any intention of intervention in our territory.

If such an alliance exists anywhere, it is in the United States armories that sell high-powered weapons to these criminal groups, as demonstrated by the United States Department of Justice itself in January of this year."

As yet, Mexico has not indicated which US goods would be included in retaliatory tariffs. However media reports canvas the possibility of pork, cheese, fresh produce, manufactured steel and aluminium being included.

China's response became known on 2 February 2025.

China Daily, 2 February 2025:

China will file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization and take necessary countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests, the Ministry of Commerce said on Sunday after the United States announced it would impose 10 percent additional tariffs on goods from China.

The Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that the unilateral imposition of tariffs by the US seriously violates the rules of the WTO, fails to address US domestic issues, and undermines regular economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

"We urge the US to objectively and rationally view and handle its own fentanyl and other issues, rather than resorting to tariff threats against other countries," the commerce ministry said in a statement.

China urges the US to correct its wrong actions, move toward the same direction as the Chinese side, face problems directly, engage in frank dialogue, strengthen cooperation and manage differences on the basis of equality, mutual benefit and respect, the commerce ministry said.

Exactly how much Trump's trade war is going to cost all four national economies is uncertain but it is not unreasonable to start the count in the billions of dollars annually if the situation continues unchecked. If so this can be expected to knock percentage points of the Gross Domestic Product of Canada, Mexico and probably that of the national debt-ladened United States.

The implications for Australia are uncomfortable to say the least.

In the first instance because assurances appear to have been given to Canada and Mexico in 2024 that the US tariffs imposed on their goods & services in 2025 would not reach anywhere near 25 per cent and, Australia can no longer have confidence that the new tariff level discussed with it will be a low as promised.

In the second instance because there is no way that global trade will not experience some disruption as these tariffs are rolled out to more OECD countries during the coming months and, as Australia with an export market spanning at least 27 of the 38 countries in this category we have a potential risk exposure independent of whatever absurd import/export trade demands Trump decides to makes of us.

BACKGROUND

Financial Review 30 January 2025, p.19 excerpt:

US national debt is around $US30 trillion ($48 trillion), bringing annual interest costs for the government near $US1 trillion and helping tip the nation's budget into a $US1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2024.

Sovereign debt accelerated sharply following the COVID-19 pandemic. That has sparked wider market concerns about the sustainability of the US balance sheet and sent bond yields advancing since Trump's election win in November. The bond market reaction is a concerning sign, according to Mr Lamm, given the US Federal Reserve has already begun to cut rates.

"The bond market appears to be taking a cautious view on rising inflation risks and elevated US budget deficits into an environment where there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the ultimate form and impact of President Trump's economic policies."

Meanwhile, gold - traditionally perceived as a safe haven asset to ride out wider market volatility - rose more than 25 per cent last year, touching a record high of nearly $US2800 an ounce in October.

Its best year in more than a decade was attributed to strong demand from global central banks - particularly the People's Bank of China, which revealed last month that it had resumed buying gold in November after a six-month hiatus....

After over 40 years of service NSW Community Justice Centres will finally close their doors by end of June 2025

 

First established and funded by a NSW Labor Government in1983 under the Community Justice Centres Act 1983, Community Justice Centres have been providing free and confidential mediation by trained professionals.

Helping people solve disagreements (or resolve disputes) without going to court in neighbourhood and strata title issues relating to noise and privacy, overhanging trees, dogs and other pets, boundary disputes and access to properties, renovations and building work, and use of common property.

Community Justice Centres also provide mediation for tenants and landlords, partners and families, and in schools, workplaces, business, and incorporated associations like sporting groups.

There are thirty-eight Community Justice Centres across New South Wales and, four of these are in the Northern Rivers region of the state at Ballina, Clarence Valley, Lismore and Tweed Heads.

Sadly, forty-two years later, it is another NSW Labor Government under Premier Chris Minns which decided to repeal the Act and is closing all the centres by 30 June this year.

Although to be fair, it was the NSW Berejiklian Coalition Government whose budgetary measures redistributing general funding, led to a reduction in total funding of the scheme which in turn inevitably reduced the level of services to vulnerable and disadvantaged communities in some areas.

Local Government NSW, media release, 31 January 2025:

CLOSURE OF FREE MEDIATION SERVICES A COSTLY BARRIER TO JUSTICE

The peak body for local government in NSW is calling on the State Government to reverse its decision to close all Community Justice Centres (CJCs) in June.

Local Government NSW (LGNSW) President Mayor Phyllis Miller OAM said shutting down the free mediation service would have devastating consequences for some of the state’s most disadvantaged residents.

“CJCs offer an equitable legal pathway that vulnerable people in our communities might not otherwise afford, providing mediation and dispute resolution services and avoiding costly formal legal action,” Mayor Miller said.

“Whether it be a dispute over fencing, overhanging branches, pets, privacy, access to land, or building/renovation works, the mediation services provided by CJCs are critical to helping communities resolve issues outside of court,” she said.

“I have heard from mayors and councillors across NSW that the elimination of CJCs will create a costly barrier to justice. Individuals and families in vulnerable circumstances will feel the biggest impact, especially in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis,” Mayor Miller said.

“It will also force many residents to turn to formal legal channels - if they can afford them - clogging the courts, tying up police resources, and delaying outcomes for countless individuals and families,” Mayor Miller said.

In 2022-23, 79% of CJC mediated neighbourhood disputes were resolved. Mayor Miller said that removing options for free mediation would be corrosive to social cohesion, potentially escalating tensions.

“The lack of consultation with councils in reaching this decision is deeply disappointing. Late last year LGNSW wrote to the NSW Attorney General expressing concern about reports that all CJCs would be closed from 30 June 2025,” Mayor Miller said.

“The NSW Attorney General has now responded confirming the closure. LGNSW strongly opposes this move and urges the State Government to reconsider and commit to funding CJCs beyond June 2025,” Mayor Miller said.

There reportedly been some discussion re replacing existing centres with a limited mediation service administered by the Department of Communities and Justice, that will only deal with court-mandated referrals where the dispute had reached the level of Apprehended Personal Violence Orders.

Cartoons of the Week

 

Paul Hudson

 

Matt Golding

Simon Letch

Mark David

With only 28 days left of Summer and Autumn on its way, how hot are the days & nights likely be for the next three months?

On Thursday 30 January 2025 Australia was a day away from finishing the end of its second month of Summer and there were heatwave warnings in Western Australia, Northern Territory, Queensland, New South Wales, as well as the Australian Capital Territory.

With just one month of Summer left, here are the forecast summaries for February to April 2025.

AustralianBureau of Meteorology (BOM), 30 January 2025:

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for February to April shows:

• above average rainfall is likely for northern Australia and much of the south, with an increased chance of unusually high rainfall for much of these regions

• warmer than average days are likely across much of southern and eastern Australia

• warmer than average nights are very likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.

Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for February to April

Click on image to enlarge

 

Rainfall—Summary

Rainfall likely to be above average for much of Australia

February to April

• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average across northern Australia and much of the south, with a greater than 80% chance of above average rainfall in parts of northern and central Queensland, along the northern WA coastline, and parts of the NT.

• For parts of southern WA and scattered parts of south-east Australia, rainfall is likely to be in the typical range for February to April.

• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ for much of northern and eastern Australia, with highest chances - more than 3 times the usual chance - across parts of northern Queensland.

1 Unusually high rainfall is that in the highest 20% of February to April rainfall observations from 1981 to 2018.

Rainfall - Totals that have a 75% chance of occurring for February to April

Click on image to enlarge

BOM Drought: Rainfall deficiencies and water availability, 9 January 2025:

Below average soil moisture in parts of the southern and eastern mainland

Map of root-zone soil moisture for the previous month

Click on image to enlarge

December soil moisture was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Decembers since 1900) in:

• the south of Western Australia excluding the far south-west and isolated pockets of northern Western Australia

• south-west South Australia and parts of the Eyre Peninsula extending to the greater Adelaide region

• much of southern Victoria, except the far south-west

• isolated pockets of eastern New South Wales

• isolated inland areas across Queensland and the Northern Territory.

December rainfall eased the severity and extent of long-term soil moisture deficiencies in the south-east, including most of Victoria, south-east New South Wales and Tasmania. Soil moisture deficiencies also eased in northern Queensland. Root-zone soil moisture across inland and western Australia is typically low at this time of year and the differences between above and below average can be relatively small.

Low soil moisture for long periods of time affects crop growth and can be an indicator of agricultural drought.

NSW DPI Interactive Combined Drought Indicator map of NSW as at 26.01.25

Click on image to enlarge

How unsettling has Trump's behaviour been for the US population since 5 November 2024 and are some people in America looking about for another place to live? Is Australia on their radar?

 

In recent months international news and commentary have been full of Donald J. Trump. Spanning his time as U.S. president-elect from 5 November 2025 through to his inauguration as the 47th U.S. President on 20 January 2025 and up to the the tenth day of his second term in office.

Although the tone of commentary often reflects a sense of disapproval, unease or alarm, I have yet to come across an article or interview that attempts to gauge the mood of the American population in any depth.

I certainly do not have the resources to attempt such a task,

What I did is what most people do when seeking information, go to Google and ask a question and in this case look for that particular question being asked in the United States of America.

Here is a Google Trends graph covering a 7 day period from 3-10 November 2024 which shows a sharp increase in the U.S. of use of the search term "moving to" [using just five countries] with the peak occurring on presidential election day and falling away thereafter but not disappearing completely.

Click on Image to enlarge

A second Google Trends graph created for a 7 day period covering 22-28 January 2025 shows use in the U.S. of the search term "moving to" [using the same five countries] having a sustained level of interest across the board level.

Click on image to enlarge

In the first graph Canada was the preferred destination, followed by Ireland, with Mexico and New Zealand jockeying for third place and Australia coming in fourth.

While in the second graph the destination choice average was first Canada, followed by Mexico, then Ireland, with Australia coming in third and New Zealand a close fourth place.

Compared breakdown by sub-region

The colour intensity indicates percentage of searches across the states.

NOTE: All graphs & map apply only to the particular days chosen and because of the small number of days and searches undertaken cannot be relied on except as snapshots.

So exactly how popular is that supposedly unique four digit pin number you use - do you share it with millions of others?

 

According to Webber Insurance Services in the first 28 days of 2025 there have been five notable data breaches affecting Australia:

• Spectrum Medical Imaging – January 2025

Sydney medical practice cyber incident claimed by INC Ransom

• Evidn – January 2025

Everest ransomware gang lists Aussie company Evidn as a victim | Hackers claim to have stolen 50 gigabytes from an applied behavioural science firm that works closely with the Queensland government.

• Volkswagen – January 2025

Almost 800k Volkswagen EV owners data exposed

• SquareX – January 2025

SquareX reveals critical breach of Cyberhaven extension | SquareX has revealed a critical browser security incident targeting Chrome Extension developers, leading to a major compromise of Cyberhaven’s browser extension.

• MediSecure – January 2025

Company at centre of data breach revealed.

That's what bad actors across the digital universe can inflict on unsuspecting people engaging with online private businesses or government agencies.

However, when one adds in the fact that so many Internet users voluntarily access a wide range of services which require a combination of either email address, password and/or pin number, then it sometimes feels like we are just scattering information far and wide.

So perhaps now is a good time to check on how often a four digit combination chosen as an easy to remember pin number is not as unique as we might like to believe?

ABC NEWS, 28 January 2025:

The last line of security for much of your digital life probably isn’t as secure as you think.

Whether it’s to unlock your smartphone, access your online banking or get cash out of the ATM, a four-digit PIN is often there to keep your secrets and your money safe.

It’s an important little code, but not all choices are equally secure.

That’s why we analysed 29 million of them from Have I Been Pwned? – an Australian-run site that helps people all over the world find out if they’ve been affected by data breaches.

The most commonly used PINs turned out to be staggeringly popular, meaning they’re particularly easy to guess when phones and bank cards fall into the wrong hands.

The top 50 codes to avoid

These are the 50 most popular codes in the full Have I Been Pwned? dataset, in order of popularity.

Ranking	Code	Popularity
1	1234	9.0%
2	1111	1.6%
3	0000	1.1%
4	1342	0.6%
5	1212	0.4%
6	2222	0.3%
7	4444	0.3%
8	1122	0.3%
9	1986	0.3%
10	2020	0.3%
11	7777	0.3%
12	5555	0.3%
13	1989	0.3%
14	9999	0.2%
15	6969	0.2%
16	2004	0.2%
17	1010	0.2%
18	4321	0.2%
19	6666	0.2%
20	1984	0.2%
21	1987	0.2%
22	1985	0.2%
23	8888	0.2%
24	2000	0.2%
25	1980	0.2%
26	1988	0.2%
27	1982	0.2%
28	2580	0.2%
29	1313	0.2%
30	1990	0.2%
31	1991	0.2%
32	1983	0.2%
33	1978	0.2%
34	1979	0.2%
35	1995	0.2%
36	1994	0.2%
37	1977	0.2%
38	1981	0.2%
39	3333	0.2%
40	1992	0.2%
41	1975	0.2%
42	2005	0.2%
43	1993	0.2%
44	1976	0.2%
45	1996	0.2%
46	2002	0.2%
47	1973	0.2%
48	2468	0.2%
49	1998	0.1%
50	1974	0.1%